BigSlick
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Everything posted by BigSlick
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I don't think its necessarily the same as every other sport - I think in Basketball the edge an individually great team has over other teams can push much higher than a baseball team can in a 7 game series, they have so many possessions and their best players can touch the ball much more often than in baseball. Baseball as a sport just has way more uncertainty and 'luck' involved. Personally what I think is important about looking at these measures is hedging against unrealistic expectations and the high chance disappointment sets in (and more importantly then, assessing blame for failure which isn't really failure}. So, otherwise relatively smart sports hosts Matt Spiegel and Jason Goff keep going on how if the Cubs don't make the World Series its a huge failure/disappointment, whereas even in the most favorable conditions they're underdogs to get there, even though they're one of the best teams in the past decade or so. A loss in the playoffs would be hugely demoralizing, but understanding its the way of baseball and that the point is to make the playoffs many many years in a row and hoping to hit that crapshoot one or multiple years out of it is the name of the game. I would hate nothing else than if public opinion soured on the team because they just happened to hit the wrong coinflip.
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i mentioned this earlier, but if you look at the FG playoff odds using "season to date stats" mode, the cubs are all the way up to 27.2% That's incredible. It's nice they also have the "coin flip" mode so it gives you some context. (Under coin flip mode the Cubs are only at 12.9%)
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I love checking playoff odds stuff because even though its meaningless, it's fun. BP now has us at an absolutely absurd 24.2% chance to win the World Series, which I almost thought wasn't possible (Of course their 2nd and 3rd order expected wins has us 7-9 games better than we are now, which would mean a 97-38 record, i.e. knocking on the door of the 2001 Mariners) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/ Fangraphs has us constantly approaching and then backing off the apparent asymptote of 20% odds at winning the WS, now sitting at 19.7%. Which is impressive for their measures. FiveThirtyEight has us at 25% to win. These are all absurd measures for a playoffs that begins with 10 teams. Anyway, I'm gonna continue to be obsessive and neurotic about it.
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I like that the Cubs decided to to duplicate their April in August. This team is great. They please me very much.
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Maybe Joe Smith is actually Good maybe we should never doubt in Theo and Jed
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This must be what it feels like to root for the 2016 Boston Red Sox
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Hahahahahahahahahah
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Ahhhh...the BABIP Gods have been looking favorably on Heyward for the past week plus The poor guy deserves it
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Another great day at the plate for Soler. If he's hot and hitting going into the playoffs this team....well I'm excited about their chances.
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LaStella doing the Four Seasons for his walk up music is amazingly self-aware and I love it, to be honest
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Huh. Well good job, Guy i didn't know existed a couple weeks ago
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I don't really care about La Stella's little protest thing anymore, and if we want to put in weird intangibles than I hate the fact Coghlan is a weirdo bro who doesn't wear an undershirt So there
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Eh, when Cogs is hitting he's a valuable platoon player but thats about it. I liked what he did on the 2015 Cubs. I don't see any reason for him to be on the playoffs roster when we got dudes like La Stella and Szczur available.
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*M.Bison voice* "Yes......Yes...."
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Let's not go too far, now
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I will continue to critically defend the garbage that is Chris Coghlan
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Well we've figured out a way to get "That" guy out, so I like our chances for the World Series
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Bleh. Please get out of the inning.
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its kind of hilarious that Braun is getting booed at home by the opposing teams fans what a sad franchise the Brewers are
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nice
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Oof, 3 balls right down the heart of the plate, can't get em
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Time to engage: Step on the Bums' Throats mode
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Well uh, we're not making Davies work very much
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do not run on Baez
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the outs. i would prefer if you committed fewer of them