Ivy Walls
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Guzman is probably going to get some work in tomorrow and on 4days rest pitch on Sunday... Most of us predicted that Miller would not last April, he hasn't and Guzman is the 5th starter. On the depth chart Cubs have Marmol and then hopefully by July Marshall will be able to back up the rotation. Guzman has the ability, can he mentally do it and make for a strong 5-man rotation? It is set up this way... Zambrano---heavy ball Hill---dominant curve Guzman----big fastball Lilly---sneaky fast Marquis---sinker slider
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Cubs roster is unbalanced with or without Pie, (Jones, Floyd & Ward) are essentially taking up one spot, (corner OF'er from left but), but circumstances will dictate whether Pie remains after Guzman's call up. The question is whether Saturday's and hopefully today's performance of Jones in CF will engineer an early season trade or will the Cubs have to showcase Jones through May to get rid of him. If-I-where-king-for-a-day(IIWKFAD) I would find a way to trade Jones for for Reggie Sanders of KC where playing Floyd in RF could be platooned and then at least Cubs have an experienced RF'er and one who is experienced. What to do with Murton is the question?
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This has nothing to do with whether he should play SS specifically. The Cubs strongest lineup has Theriot at SS and Pie in CF and Floyd in RF defensively the Cubs strongest defensive lineup has Cedeno at SS, and Pagan in RF with Pie still in CF (and Blanco behind the plate) This tells me that the Cubs need to get rid of Izturis, Jones and find a PH-C so they can insert Blanco in later innings.
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Pie appears to me to be sticking to almost everyday with periodic learning sessions next to the coaches. He appears to learn much better than Patterson and he shouldn't be compared to Corey at all, they are two different players altogether. Now that it appears that Theriot will start at SS the Cubs only need to look at RF which I can live with Floyd part of the game and a 5th starter. Then they might be able to compete
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First it is ironic that there are probably three teams scouting Jones and possibly more this weekend. Jones is playing LF for two reasons, one to show the league how he is defensively there and two to give Murton some rep's there as the Cubs extend ST in the OF. To those, the Blue Jays are actually not expecting their former LF'er who is 30 out for the year by going under the knife. July is rosy. Zaun is available because they want to bring up Thigpen a nice young catcher. They are also out of relievers. Although I am unsure what else the Blue Jays have to offer. But more interesting are teams like SD that had scouts in as they look at getting out of the Sledge LF'er, or Phila or KC (getting out of R Sanders) or Baltimore or Seattle. In any case the rumor started out from an old friend in the Toronto paper. -
Pie is called up, shows he belongs can and will develop offensively, and play better OF defense than anyone on the team. Theriot is earning a spot in the lineup, the question is where? I say it is SS as Cedeno needs work on his plate discipline. Although I do see improvement on defense. Izturis is the utility man. Soriano is hurt and this could be either a good thing or deepening thing. Floyd is an offensive player but is not everyday... SP: Lilly is good, Hill is very good, Marquis is quieting critics, Z is Z and Miller is on borrowed times....I see Guzman in 3 starts in pinstripes, followed by Marmol being brought up to replace the other weak links A spring April trade is in order for the Cubs as Toronto is willing and needing. It will be interesting as the Cubs could acquire Zaun the switch hitting 36 year old catcher and another prospect for Jones and Ohman from the Blue Jays Relief is okay...
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I have been told that the BlueJays are interested in scouting and talking to the Cubs about J Jones and possibly Will Ohman for package of prospects. I question what the Cubs will want in return to save the Blue Jay's season with two major injuries. The thing is Hendry wants to win now and not tomorrow, I could see acquiring Zaun © who is 36 yrs old and another good prospect where the Cubs could really try something interesting like platooning Barrett in LF against LHP pitchers as Pie and Murton will platoon in RF as soon as Soriano returns.
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I still see Piniella toying with the lineup with Jones, Murton, Izturis batting second and it could come back to DeRosa, who by the way is a real surprise as to his authority to hit. Cubs appear more inclined to make pitchers pitch and it is something to build on. But five games is way too small, let us look at this at 10-20-54 games. I still see the Cubs trading Jones, whether it is for a bona fide RF or bringing up Pie to man RF that remains to be determined. Pie could be a real solid #2 hitter behind Soriano which puts two power-speed guys in the lineup. HOWEVER...regardless the Cubs prospects fall upon pitching. IF IF IF Cubs get 200 IP from Zambrano, Hill and Lilly and get Marquis or Miller to provide 150 IP and IF IF IF Prior or Guzman take over the 5th spot and actually adds impact than the Cubs are Aces in the playoff.
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and it sends a message to the entire bullpen.
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First thing Zell is not buying this comglomerate for anything but upside, look at 30% return so $2.5B short term return. So pertinent for the Cubs if they are going to be sold this year they are not going to look long term anywhere, (why the FA signings), and Piniella who has won in one year. That would save McDon and Hendry's jobs or at least provide them a resume. I just can't see the Cubs being able to sign Z for a long term unless Hendry convinces Zell and Co that this is not a long term liability. My guess is there is already a couple of potential suitors for the club and Zell will know the value of the club and the best value is winning. That said I just don't think the Cubs will be able to stable Murton, Gallagher or Veal, Patterson and even Pie if it means they can secure a pennent this year. What is needed is moving Soriano from CF and playing LF and getting a real CF'er. Is that Griffey or Suzuki I am not sure but what if the Cubs offered Seattle Murton, Gallagher, Patterson and even another for Suzuki now. What if the Cubs went after Clemens at $25M this year that would put the Cubs way up talent wise. Anyway win now or else.
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NATIONAL League NL EAST: New York Philadelphia PHillies Florida Washington NL Central: Chicago Milwaukee Cincinnati StL Houston Pittsburgh NL West: Los Angeles San Diego Arizona Colorado SF NL Wild Card: Milwaukee AMERICAN LEAGUE AL East: New York Toronto Boston Tampa Bay Baltimore AL Central: Detroit Cleveland Minnesota Chicago Kansas City AL West: Los Angeles Oakland Texas Seattle AL Wild Card: Toronto POSTSEASON: NL Pennant: Chicago AL Pennant: NY Champion: CHicago NL Cy Young: Zambrano Al Cy Young: Santana NL MVP: Beltran AL MVP: Jeter NL Rookie: Pie Al Rookie: who really cares
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Like Ohman, or Wuertz he has some promise but the real closer is Samardziji, he has the personality and talent. He didn't make the team because he needs to work on a few things and Cotts is a lefty.
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First Jones will be gone, look for the first injury of the year in a contending team in the OF or DH. Baltimore is the first already with Payton. I think the Cubs will not wait for July, let alone June, I think 6 weeks at the most. Of course some of this depends on Pie continuing in his plate discipline and showing results. Also don't expect the Cubs to put Soriano in RF either, he is destined for LF. My best guess is that the Cubs will be looking to trade for Suzuki as he is not going to sign with the inept Seattle franchise and they will want to shed payroll. Murton, (hopefully) Prior who also will be recalled by early May (providing he too is performing) and allowing Miller to be moved to the bullpen along with someone like E-Patterson and Marmol or Marshall for Ichiro. Murton will be temporarily moved to RF before this. When Prior is traded it will be about the time that either Guzman ascends to the rotation or if he has already Marquis is returned to the rotation.
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soriano-LF Pie-CF murton-RF and then Derosa
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probably best for now but I would rather see Soriano bat 3rd and move Lee, Ramirez, down and have Pie and Murton bat 1-2......
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Going with 11 pitchers and 14 position players!
Ivy Walls replied to Ivy Walls's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm pretty sure it's been established that Guzman, not Cherry, will be on the 25-man when camp breaks, unless there's some news that I am not privy to. NO it hasn't in fact Guzman is more likely going to AAA to perfect himself Also, it has been established that Weurtz is going to make the team. The 25th spot is between the 2 angels (Pagan and Guzman) That's still up in the air as of yesterday... Tribune YES...but again we have many managers in out there... This is the most logical situation, only go north with healthy and capable players, when Wuertz regains his strength and others are ineffective call him up. As for Guzman, when Miller or Marquis falter bring him up -
The next couple of days will tell but it appear that Piniella is leaning to keeping 14 position players---meaning---an extra defensive OF'er. HEY HEY I have never liked the idea of 12 pitchers. Six healthy relievers are more than fine and if you have use your AAA options than build to it! Position: 1B Lee (Ward), 2B DeRosa (Theriot), SS Izturis (Cedeno) 3B Ramirez, LF Murton (Floyd) CF Soriano (Pagan) RF Jones, C Barrett (Blanco) Pitchers: SP; Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Hill, Miller---RP; Dempster, Howry, Eyre, Ohman, Cherry, Cotts(?) DL: Wood, AAA: Mateo, Guzman, Prior, Wuertz Ideal call up would be to move Prior to SP'ng and Miller or Marquis to RP and option Cherry or Cotts to AAA by May. As June approaches and Pie pushing the envelope with performance trading Jones and moving Pie to CF, Soriano to LF and Murton/Pagan to RF, also getting Theriot on the field more and improving 2 OF defensive spots.
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5th starter: Prior replaces Miller 3rd week of April, (Miller has two starts and is skipped, never making to the 6th inning replacing the 12th man on the roster (Wuertz). Izturis starting SS, mid-May, Cubs move to a platoon of Cedeno and Theriot, Izturis eventually traded to Giants to replace Furcal. Cubs recall Coats for IF/OF utility. Soriano moved to LF after Cubs trade Jones mid-May and move Murton to RF and Pie to CF. Guzman recalled as new 5th starter as Cubs demote Marquis to long relief after they release Miller, early June. Late July Cubs trade Murton, Moore and Dempster for Ichiro Suzuki and move Soriano to 3rd in order where Theriot has earned everyday SS batting second and Wood has become the lead closer. Eric Patterson replaces Coats as super utility and occassional platoon for DeRosa at 2B August. Cubs end up leading the MLB in stolen bases and runs scored with a speedy lineup that spots: Soriano, Theriot/Cedeno, DeRosa/E-patterson, D-Lee, Pie
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Today the papers report that Cedeno has improved enough to be considered the 2nd utility player leaving Pagan looking at waivers and a tough competitor in Coats who can play IF/OF on AAA. This means early on that officially that redundant Ward & Floyd are the back up OF'ers (even though versatile DeRosa actually is in the corners and Theriot in CF) But wait, Giants saw their SS hurt and this could motivate a trade. Could the Cubs trade Izturis (and Pagan) for something of value (if the Giants have anything), leaving Theriot as the possible starting SS with Cedeno and the Cubs keep Coats. Prior today surprised the world and actually pitching, making the next two appearances more interesting. Could he have looked at the abyss and returned? This would make Miller expendable with Guzman slotted for back up and then hopefully Marshall. To me the whole problem is whenever the Cubs go with 11 pitchers and 14 position players.
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and actually spend value acquiring him
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Ichiro Suzuki sits out there as an obvious acquisition... Move Jones, Murton, Moore, Marshall for Ichiro and someone like Morse This would allow the Cubs to move Ichiro to RF, Pie to CF and Soriano to LF making for a solid OF defense and also solidify the lineup... Suzuki DeRosa/Theriot Soriano Lee Ramirez Pie Barrett/Blanco Izturis
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Would you pay $6 for a beer at a bar? Here is what my rich finance friends do....they don't buy beer, they bring in their own stuff. One brings in brandy, another brings in wine and another brings in Jack For one the beer is warm, .32 and once it is poured without foam.... how one does it figure out for yourselves but be cool
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Baseball played over 160+ games is all about playing the percentages against your core competency. Double stealing tells me that today's lineup of Theriot batting 2nd will be seen often. Now with DeRosa or Murton batting second with Soriano you can see hit and run or run and hit. But good to screw the bunt for a single run early
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Rotoworld on the 5th starter battle
Ivy Walls replied to Post Count Padder's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think Prior is burnt toast -
Bruce Breaks Down the Race for the #2 Spot in the Lineup
Ivy Walls replied to vance_the_cubs_fan's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Let me start with RF as that will be more of a righty-lefty platoon whether it is Jones or Pie with DeRosa when a LHP pitches.---meaning that Theriot plays 2B against lefties. That also puts Murton in the lineup? Cubs are also looking for a RH or SH hitting utility player to play SS against LHP pitchers...Possible Woodward or Blum LHP Lineup1: Soriano-Theriot-Lee-Ramirez-Murton-DeRosa-Blano-Blum-SP RHP Lineup1 Soriano-Murton-Lee-Ramirez-Jones-Barrett-DeRosa-Izturis-SP RHP Lineup2 Soriano-DeRosa-Lee-Ramirez-Floyd-Jones-Barrett-Izturis-SP Now more platoon will be Theriot getting in at 3B occassionally, Ward getting in at 1B Here is the conondrum for this roster, who backs up Soriano? Piniella is on record knowing that resting the everyday players and why I think before ST or more likely before May 31st Jones is traded. By then the Cubs might feel comfortable with Floyd playing against RH'ers three or four days a week and bringing up Pie to play RF against RH'ers. That way putting DeRosa in the 2 hole and dropping Floyd to the 5th spot and placing Pie in the 7th hole behind Barrett. Pie then could relieve Soriano once every two weeks in CF.
