Ivy Walls

Prior appears to be headed to extended spring or even AAA, today was another bad outing. Miller is still highly questionable meaning that the 4 or 5 starter so it also appears that Marquis signing was a good move for at least an innings eater. Hill is assurd the 4th spot in the rotation so either the 3rd or 5th is open. Cotts is not there either. Leaving Guzman who is thankfully a healthy and now the darkhorse for the 5th starter. IF so and than the Cubs probably will go with 11 pitchers and not 12. This is even bigger with Wood seemingly finding himself despite the grand salami give up. Process of elimination: SP; Z-Lilly-Marquis-Hill-[Guzman?] RP-Dempster-Howry-Eyre-Ohman-Wood-[Wuertz?] AAA;Cotts, Mateo,O'Malley,Marmol, Cherry, Rapata, Gallagher, extended spring Marshall-Prior releasing Miller, possibly? This would allow the Cubs to hold 13 players in position we know that Theriot is the utility IF along with starters Barrett/Blanco-C, Lee-1B, DeRosa-2B, Izturis-SS-Ramirez-3B, Murton-LF, Soriano-CF, Jones-RF, Ward-1B-OF, Floyd-OF. This leaves one more spot which on paper is Pagan-OF over Cedeno on the IF. But Cubs should be trading and probably in areas of Miller, Dempster, Jones and Izturis. My concerted amatuer humble opinion (CAHO) Cubs could probably move Jones for Jon Lieber and then insert him into the 5th starter spot moving Marquis to the long relief. This then would allow the Cubs to move Dempster and Izturis for value and start Theriot and platoon DeRosa Pie and Patterson having Patterson platoon with DeRosa at 2B. Bringing up Pie would allow the Cubs to move Soriano to RF and let Pie play CF. Why? Let's start with SP: Guzman is a darkhorse but let him do what Hill did last year and earn his spot where the Cubs gathering a veteran in Lieber for at least a half of season would solidify the rotation. Dempster would be replaced by Wuertz or Wood and moving Izturis for what would be a platoon with Patterson and Theriot and DeRosa would be a big add especially if they get something of value plus allowing others to fill in. To me the key is Pie who appears to be earning the CF spot, followed by Theriot and Guzman.

Maddux really respected Rothschild, felt he helped Greg extend his career...Clement owes his career to Rothschild. Dempster, Eyre, Howry all find him solid. Wood has learned to listen to him, but Prior and Zambrano don't listen to him as did not the rookies, they listened to the magic opinion one who got fired. Lots of infighting last two years....

If any of you are at all interested I know accomplished coaches and here this message that Piniella is sending is fundamental to changing a last place team that was sloppy under Baker and my biggest beef. Baker was a 'players coach' meaning he believed that if he maintained a positive reinforcing environment and looked for players to discipline the other players that eventually he prevailed since veterans who were successful know how to get it done. This is the nice guy approach and often works after a team has grown and then become tired of a taskmaster and disciplinarian. It is why disciplinarians stay long in college where by defintiion there is regular turnover. In the pros disciplinarians are short lived, often win and win unexpectedly and then a team or players often play below new found expectations. Piniella is sending the following message. 1)Losing is not acceptable 2) Sloppy play (meaning mental and physical errors) or lack of execution will not be tolerated. 3) He has one major power, the power to play and power to remove. Power is only effective when used and used consistently which determines fairness in the context of his team. 4) So let us watch the opportunity Cedeno & Moore have this season in A squad stuff. Sloppy could be a message to one or both's approaches before the game also. My bet is Cedeno will be singled out and have to really work out of the dog house. 5) This example will be felt throughout the entire team 6) There will be few locks in the starting lineup even Soriano, Lee or Ramirez as Piniella will find a way to discipline them as the ST and season unfolds. He might even find a way to get Zambrano's attention by pulling him early some game early. In the end Piniella will say that he is responsible for the play on the field by his choosing who plays in what situations and who does not and that everyone must be ready to perform at the level that he expects. Playing time will not be based on favorites. What to expect: Murton is the kind of player that flourishes under a Piniella as yesterday showed. Floyd is the kind that might begin to moan and groan, look for him to start on the DL if he is not all ready April 1. Theriot is also the kind of player who can flourish in a Piniella system, my guess is watch to see if he gets playing time at SS because Cedeno is sloppy. Lee is the kind of player who can be a real player leader. Jones, is the kind of player Piniella will ride and platoon in CF as I don't think Soriano will end up being there. This is why I think Pie eventually emerges before June 1st at the latest in CF. Beyond this will be the approaches that will show up in OBP, runs scored after 2 outs, unearned runs, runners in scoring position, runs scored from 3rd with less than 2 outs. This is exciting and my guess is that when it comes to a 50/50 if a younger player is not sloppy and is willing to be taught the right approach versus a veteran with little upside...it is the younger. That is why if I am DeRosa I might want to have my OF glove well broken in as if Patterson and Theriot push they could be the regular starting infield before the year is over. If or when Jones is traded DeRosa could be playing RF regularly if he wants playing time in a Piniella team.

Floyd is talking like Baker is the manager....Piniella will begin with performance and then if Murton actually competes and shows he has the ability to start Floyd will end up traded with Jones.

Okay I have read a lot of uneducated thoughts on this new approach. Something else this new coaching (game) approach is part of an overall. Today I read that Trammel was grilling the infield with fundamental drills. I have heard that the pitchers will not only bunt but bunt for hits and force the defense to defend and not merely lay down. Baker was a joke as an active approach manager. Piniella is an active fundamental baseball manager. Now back to hitting. The greatest hitting philosophy was Ted Williams, he had an old graphic where he would only swing with less than 2 strikes at pitches in his hitting zone. That zone got progressively smaller if he got hitter's counts at 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1 and finally 3-0. If the count was 1-2, 2-2, or 3-2 he got defensive and put the ball in play. Williams attacked the ball and hit mistakes. Now this kind of philosophy in competitive golf. Instead of attacking a pitcher with a hitter's account but attacking the golf course when the ball and situation allowed the highest chance of success. In basketball it is game situations where shots are taken in rhythm and in the shooting range. It is all game management and why there are manager and coaches. This is what spring training is all about, setting the tone and expectations. Now some thoughts: Murton will naturally succeed in this environment while Jones and Floyd will be critisized with their free swinging nature and lower OBP'es. This is good, Perry's philosohy Interesting fact Perry's thoughts on the upcoming season

This is a big destructive dysfunctional power play within a family no different than a rich family feud that spends money and other lives foolishly. The trouble is the Tribune Co is now a distressed company with valuation that undervalues its market and revenue potential. The current strategy is meant to pay off the CA Times Mirror family and attempt to structure the company to find a private equity partner to go private. By splitting the company into a broadcast companies (and Cubs) and the newspaper business it allows the two new groups to be sold into different PE strategies. The newspaper could be sold at a discount in a ever diminishing marketplace and the broadcast properties to form a new Tribune Co. The prize is that then the Cubs could be sold off to another PE group for cash and reinvest into a new broadcast company. As for the Cubs I do not think they will ever go back to cheap no different than the NYY, NYM, Bos, LAD, SFG. The thing is a PE ownership is much more capable of thinking of valuation then quarterly revenues and stock value.

I don't understand the value of that stat. If Blanco catches for worse pitchers he's the worst catcher? If they are catching different people, it is difficult to get a measure of the value of that stat. Being that they are on the same roster, both caught a decent percentage of the same starters, therefore I think the stat has some merit. Let's start with the fact that last year Cubs started almost 100 games with rookie AAA pitchers, only one really stuck the last 6 weeks of the season (Hill) The years past Blanco (White is cute but....racially tinged as that surnames regardless of their meaning remain the same), has been a better catcher and the games caught have had lower era's. Barrett is a liability as a defensive catcher. He also is a FA next year. My book is find a way to trade for IROD and be done with it that said Barrett would be a great pick up on a AL team where he could catch some, DH, and play a position some and be a full time bat in the lineup. As for CF, yes Soriano made a statement he likes CF, sees the ball and possibly that is mute....and then the Cubs could go with the 4 OF'ers, (even have Floyd face LH'ers over Jones), but SS is still a huge problem.....

Now that Z is signed for '07 and they agree in principle to discuss financials for a 5 year extension, let us look at the project roster and its uncertainities and holes that can be addressed through a ST trade. SP: Is okay thanks to FA and AAA/AAAA competition, only uncertainity is Prior's presumed health and future effectiveness, (prediction he wins Comeback Player of the Year), Miller and Marquis. Strength in numbers here. RP: Again strength in numbers again, uncertainities, Wood and health (no slurve ball, less weight better mechanics, less fatique, monster reliever potential), Dempster's motivation and control. IF: 2B, now almost as annually uncertain as 3B was, DeRosa is the new supplant hopefully for at least 2 years as Patterson is groomed. SS is a big hole, Izturis is nothing more than an overpaid injury prone utility player that is glove oriented. Question could Theriot beat him out by May31st this season and be a kind of Eckstein clone? Wil the Cubs trade? 1B/3B: Lee's return of health (again a Comeback Player of the Year candidate) and Ramirez, solid if they don't hurt themselves. OF: As it stands the corner positions are set. Either Murton/Floyd and Jones or Murton & Jones & Floyd will play. The question is whether Soriano must play a corner OF leaving CF open. Jones could open in that spot but that is a ticket for disaster after a few miscue's. Naturally this is a place for a trade. Cubs have Pie in reserve and he could end up playing CF ahead of the timetable. C: Barrett is in his final year as a offensive catcher who should be playing a platoon OF or 3B in the AL as an occassional spot catcher and DH. Boy I bet on of the Detroit, Oakland, Angels, Boston or Minnesota managers would like to have him in a package. Cubs would probably be better off with Blanco and Soto while they groom Fox than Barrett when it is all said and done. What to watch for: Seattle: They have SS surplus, Ichiro who wants FA bad, and need for RP'ing. Cubs could move an adaquate RF'er, experienced RP'ing and prospects like Moore, (to allow them to move Beltre) and Dopirak and even Patterson and a AAA/AAAA starting pitcher for a SS and Ichiro. The other lineup is the Angels. A dark horse for a trading partner would be Astros who now realize that Clemens is not returning and will need to rebuild. The thing is a ST trading partner is often a surprise but it appears certain that the Cubs cannot go into the season without a CF'er or a SS both who are this uncertain.

Here is the list to choose from: Each year a few unexpected performances changes the presumed assumptions of those participating and there are a few veterans who struggle. I have also included a few who are returning from injury. NON Roster Gallagher, 21, RHP Harben, 23, RHP O’Malley, 26, LHP Pignatiello, 24, LHP Wells, 24 5-5 4.96 ERA Fox, 24, Kinkade, IF 33, McGehee, 24,. E Patterson, 23, Colvin, 21, From the 40-MAN Pitchers B/T 57 Rocky Cherry R/R 48 Neal Cotts L/L 37 Angel Guzman R/R 49 Carlos Marmol R/R 45 Sean Marshall L/L 51 Juan Mateo R/R 52 Wade Miller R/R 44 Roberto Novoa 22 Mark Prior R/R 55 Clay Rapada R/L 50 Jeff Samardzija 34 Kerry Wood 43 Michael Wuertz Catchers B/T 58 Geovany Soto R/R Infielders B/T 5 Ronny Cedeno R/R 9 Scott Moore L/R 2 Ryan Theriot R/R Outfielders B/T 27 Buck Coats L/R 29 Angel Pagan S/R 17 Felix Pie L/L My best guess: Non Roster will see E Patterson show up with strong penchant to compete with Theriot and attempt to make the club in '08 as a reserve IF/OF willing and able to play CF also. As pitchers go Gallagher will continue to show much more performance than the experts give him credit for. These two performances could begin to engineer a trade interest with Seattle for Ichiro. 40-Man Prior: Front and center Prior looked as sharp as his rookie year and dispelled rumors that have gathered since '05. Even though Zam is all giddy about his $98M contract he feels the pressure of the ace returned. Wood: After years of prediction that Kerry Wood could be the greatest closer in the game, Wood shows himself dominate and feels ready for a new career. Dopirak who had a surprising spring last year and after a first game at AA breaking his toe. This really hurt Dopirak since he could have played some in the bigs while Lee was also hurt. A big spring could also help him get some interest by suitors looking for talent. And finally Felix Pie will show up and demonstrate why he is considered the best Cub prospect after a tough Winter in the Dominican Rep. He will not make the club even though Lou felt he made the team outright yet he will close the deal on the Cubs trading for Ichiro and renting a RF'er and knowing that Floyd (who will show he is not ready for everyday OF work) and possibly going on the DL at the start with soreness making mute his incentive clause. (Floyd is not recalled until May when Ward is hurt) These performances allow the Cubs to aggressively seek Seattle's Ichiro by trading Gallagher (finally allowed after Zambrano gets $98M over 5 yrs., ($18M, $19M, $19.5M, $20.5M, $21M) for Jones (who appeared to play defense better but pressed his offense), Gallagher, Dopirak, Dempster and Pagan. 5-for-1 The Cubs break camp with a new OF---Murton---Soriano--Suzuki with Pie as a reserve. IF; Barrett, Lee, DeRosa, Izturis and Ramirez with Theriot (IF/OF), Blanco, Ward and E Patterson in reserve (IF/OF). Pitching Cubs sport; Z-Lilly-Prior-Hill-Miller (who barely beats Marquis as the last real decision) with RP: Wood(CL), Eyre, Howry, Ohman(LOOGY), Marquis(LR/Swing),Wuertz, Cotts. Wuertz beat out Novoa for the last spot on the staff. Overview of roster (projected) Cubs starting lineup is: (with/regular platoon) Ichiro--DeRosa---Soriano--Lee--Ramirez--Pie/Murton---Barrett/Blanco--Izturis/Theriot(2B). Pie & Murton emerge as one of the top regular duo's. The Cubs sport one of the fastest and best HR team in the NL offering Suzuki with 40+SB's, Soriano with 30+SB's at a better %, Lee with 15+SB's, Pie with 25+SB's and Theriot with 20 +SB's. Some games they simply mash teams to death, (10-HR Suzuki & DeRosa, Soriano 48-HR, Lee 40-HR, Ramirez 38-HR, Barrett 22-HR, Murton/Pie 35 HR's) with a pitching staff that stayed healthy and regularly lodged quality starts. The one surprise is that Zambrano goes on the DL with back spasms during the year and fortunately the Cubs have depth and call up Guzman for four starts. The other development is that after this the Cubs go with 11 pitchers down the stretch in late July and August as they trade Miller for prospects.

I live in CO Springs, CO and except for Saturday black out provisions can get every game. Last year I got a wireless LAN and often sat out on my patio watching and listening to the game, even gardening. The picture was usually very good although not cable/satellite quality this year I was told that was enhanced even more. I could also split the screens and have the statistics on side by side. It appears they have raised the annual charge $10.00 but still have the same monthly charge of $14.95 or annual 89.95 (you get October) so this year I might just do it monthly. Also when the Cubs played during the day I could come home and watch an archive game.

but based on last year it appears the Cubs rebuilt themselves over winter

Hill (had a good 8 weeks) and should continue in his professional mastery... That said there are contractual obligations of veterans...and unspoken roster strategies....my guess is that Marquis is the one who is the long reliever because his mechanics will continue to need work... Rotation will probably be: Z, Lilly, Prior, Hill, Miller if both Prior [/b/(most likely) and Miller return healthy and effective with innings. My best guess scenerio is that the Cubs will review their options in June/July if Miller shows he has returned to effective form and either trade him and acsend a AAA or Marquis if he has proved effective. Cubs could also ride Miller and they pay out his incentives.

quantify your thinking...why? Ernie Banks broke his hand and returned to have a record four years... Do you know why Lee suddenly jumped from a B level good player to a superstar status in '05? He changed his approach to hitting and opened up his stance allowing him to drop his hands and protect the down and in pitch that got him out, why can't he return if he is indeed healthy?

Take a look at the club from contractual obligations and veterans who have accomplished. SP locks: Z, Lilly SP competition: Prior, Miller, Hill, Marquis, Cotts, Marshall, Guzman, Marmol, Mateo probably in that order. Prior gets the advantage because of his incentive clauses, Miller is next he signed an incentive laden contract with appearances and conditions that provide the means to make $5M That makes four if they are healthy leaving Marquis that has a $6M contract and Hill who has performance the last 8 weeks of the season as a dominant rookie. Nothing is ever assured so why there is ST and games to be played. Best guess; If Hill has a good ST he makes the team as a starter or either is a long reliever or he goes to AAA and refines himself again. If Prior has a good ST he makes the starting rotation or goes to LR. If Miller has a strong ST he beats out Marquis who goes to LR if all three of the above have a good spring, (he replaced Rusch as the swing). So in reality that takes us to the RP: Dempster, Erye, Howry, Wood and Ohman have contracts, (Wood being the only certainity with health), that leaves one more spot, let us hope that Marquis is the LR leaving one more spot for a short reliever; Cotts, Wuertz, Novoa, Marshall, Marmol are in the mix. Now we also know about the position players: Starters: Barrett, Lee, DeRosa, Izturis, Ramirez, Murton, Soriano, Jones Bench/platoon: Blanco© Floyd(LF/1B), Ward(1b/3B/OF/PH) Competitors are Theriot (IF/OF), Cedeno(IF), Hill(IF/OF)Pagan(OF) outside some other non roster invitees like E Patterson(IF/OF) Theriot and Pagan appear obvious with DeRosa being able to play 4 positions Cubs could go with Theriot and Hill or even Patterson if they can play CF. Hill looks most intriguing with his versatility and offense.

Also, if Theriot proves he can play CF it might spell the end for Pagan in favor of another backup middle infielder. let's hope so. Well, the alternative might be Cedeno, so I don't know how happy I'd be-Cedeno on the bench would maybe not be the best thing for him, but it would probably give the Cubs greater flexibility than if Pagan was on the bench (since the Cubs would still have Murton/Soriano/Jones/Floyd/Ward/Theriot/DeRosa to play the 3 outfield spots if needed, while right now they only have DeRosa/Izturis/Aramis/Theriot to play the 2B, SS, and 3B-they need another body there, especially since people like DeRosa, Izturis, and Aramis will have more days off than people like Soriano). If they don't bring another infielder along with Theriot, then it becomes hard to pinch-hit Theriot, and I wouldn't be too happy about that. I think maybe it is because of this overarching fantasy-stat-head stuff... First thing; Lou is on record seeking to structure his team with 11 pitchers...this is why I think Miller is a key component in this strategy hopefully being able to hold down the LR/Spot until June when he could be traded if there is no breakdowns where then Marshall or Cotts is moved into that spot. Here you can ping-pong Marshall-Cotts-Marmol-Guzman as the 6th pitcher through the summer. That said Lou is about versatility and platooning even regulars and working the entire roster. Floyd I can see occassionally playing 1B (maybe once a week) where Lee gets a day. The same for DeRosa (Theriot and possibly B Hill), Izturis will also be platooned with Cedeno or Theriot which brings up A Ram, how does he get rest? As for the OF: Until Jones is traded, it is Jones-Soriano-Murton/Floyd. But against LHP's could Theriot play RF? Without a trade here is what I see. Starters: Barrett, Lee, DeRosa, Izturis, Ramirez, Murton, Soriano, Jones (8) Bench: Blanco, Floyd, Ward. Theriot, Cedeno, Hill---unless Cubs feel they need a CF'er (Pagan) DeRosa will be used in the OF, but more so Theriot and B. Hill on an occassion. This will allow the Cubs to have 3 LHB's off the bench with 3 RHB's platooning will be against LHP Theriot at 2B, DeRosa in RF, Murton LF, Cedeno SS platooning against RHP: Hill (when resting DeRosa), Izturis at SS, Floyd in LF

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/259194,zamb16.article Seems that Z is backtracking and calming down...my guess is that the arbitration thing is settled by Sunday before Cubs position players report and Z gets 5 guarenteed... my guess... $16M, $18M, $18M, $18M, $20M option year 2012 $21M mutual option (buyout), club option 2013 $22M puts the fears and mongers to rest

Cabrera playing the OF with Jones, Soriano and Murton..... allowing a trade with Jones or Murton.....with Pie in the background....What makes AROD better is he is a SS and Cabrera is a bad 3B and good OF and great hitter....

Well: Willis for Clement and 6 fingers. Big winner: Marlins Lee for Choi. Big winner: Cubs Renting Pierre for Nolasco, Mitre, Pinto. Winner: Marlins Time to even up the score? Cubs, NYY and Marlins go into a 3-way deal... Marlins trade Miquel Cabrera & Willis Cubs trade Zambrano, Moore, Pawelik, Wuertz, E Patterson NYY trade ARod, Hughes, Milkey Cabrera, NYY receive Miquel Cabrera, Zambrano, Marlins receive Hughes (best prospect NYY), Pawelik (#1 draft choice #10 Chicago), Moore (3B) prospect, Wuertz, Milkey Cabrera and E Patterson Cubs receive AROD and Willis (Cub essentially trade Zambrano for another year of Willis) Marlins go cheap cheap and get 6 players, 5 who can play now or in a year. I couldn't possibly hate that deal more. Willis? No thanks. NY gets Zambrano AND Miguel? Double no thanks. Who cares about NYY's Zambrano's arm is going to falter....if not he is superman or Clemens Willis is a good replacement and would be #2. The thing is Cubs get AROD and still could deal for Ichiro with Jones, Gallagher and throw in. Then you have a WS roster

Well: Willis for Clement and 6 fingers. Big winner: Marlins Lee for Choi. Big winner: Cubs Renting Pierre for Nolasco, Mitre, Pinto. Winner: Marlins Time to even up the score? Cubs, NYY and Marlins go into a 3-way deal... Marlins trade Miquel Cabrera & Willis Cubs trade Zambrano, Moore, Pawelik, Wuertz, E Patterson NYY trade ARod, Hughes, Milkey Cabrera, NYY receive Miquel Cabrera, Zambrano, Marlins receive Hughes (best prospect NYY), Pawelik (#1 draft choice #10 Chicago), Moore (3B) prospect, Wuertz, Milkey Cabrera and E Patterson Cubs receive AROD and Willis (Cub essentially trade Zambrano for another year of Willis) Marlins go cheap cheap and get 6 players, 5 who can play now or in a year.

Naturally the PTBNL would probably be a player that would be either Pie or E Patterson both who are in the minors. It probably would be following ST but could be Patterson. As for the trade, it would be enormous. This year it solve two enormous problems; RF defense, lead off hitting and game situational hitting/running. It puts Soriano down to either #2 or probably #3 in the lineup where I would move Barrett & Murton(when he plays) up to #2 (like ChiSox did with Fisk) and have Ramirez or Lee be clean up whomever is hottest. Floyd could follow when he plays. In short I would play Barrett and Floyd and Murton and Blanco and then move DeRosa to #7 and Izturis to 8 permanently.

Often the deal outlines the plan and expectations. Prior...here is a pay cut, (not really hurtful but it is 16,666 a month less than last year (595833 in '07 which is under 600,000 per month), but he can make last year's money back by Labor Day (27th start) and his demand in arbitration by Sept 30th. 30 starts is essentially 2 starts under a perfect 5-man rotation although because of off days usually the top 2 get 35-36 starts. Now that is not the question all of you are asking. Presumably the contract answers the question of the Cubs paper plans, that Prior must compete (show he can start) he starts. Then the next question is whether he is effective....none of us can say with any confidence merely conjecture whether he will be effective...which is a subjective measure... Will he be an all star....probably not, but then Sutcliffe was in '85 and then '88 was coming back and in '89 an all star again. So what is effective....as a fifth starter it is getting to the 6th inning with a quality start (meaning holding down the opposition to 3 to 4 runs) then the measure goes up from there get into the 7 inning regularly under the same measure of quality starts. Then leave more games with the lead at the 7th inning Then be one of the stoppers Then be the ace. Right now the Cubs are looking for Prior to be the 5th starter....and the hope is he moves into a middle of the order starter by August Because when healthy he's a very good pitcher. But if he's healthy.. doesn't he already have a spot in the rotation.. why does he need to contend? because he needs to prove healthy. I'm confused. If he's pitching, doesn't that prove he's healthy? So why does he need to contend for a spot in the rotation if he can pitch? Guys coming back from injury are usually not as effective as they were before their injury, for several months or even a season or two. Some guys never get back to where they were before the injury. Prior has had several injuries causing him to miss parts of the last 3 seasons including most of 2004 and 2006. His 2005 was good but not as dominant as he was in 2003 before the first injury (the Giles collision). The few starts he made in 2006 were still worse, and revealed yet another injury. Even if he's "good as new" with regards to his health, which we all know won't be the case, we're still talking about a guy that hasn't pitched a full season since 2003. There will be, at the very least, a lot of rust to knock off. He has to compete for a spot because he will probably be pitching considerably worse than 2003 or 2005 simply due to not pitching regularly for a long time. If you have an ERA of 7.00 and a WHIP over 1.60 right now, it really doesn't matter how good you used to be. Assuming Prior's healthy enough to pitch at all, I see him starting the season and playing at least a couple months in AAA just so he can get his mechanics right again and get used to pitching regularly in an environment where there isn't a lot of pressure on him to be an ace pitcher right away.

I work in the market of sports execs and I was told that Direct TV is done but MLB.TV on the web will be enhanced. I had it last year, for us it was better since I got live and archived games. Sorry about satellite and cable viewers....

Given: (like the old geometry equations) Given from current Depth Chart: OF: Murton-LF (Floyd then Pagan back up), Soriano-CF (Pie back up), Jones-RF (Coats back up) IF: Lee-1B (Ward back up), DeRosa-2B (Theriot back up), Izturis-SS (Cedeno & Theriot back ups), Ramirez (Moore back up) C: Barrett (Blanco & Soto back ups) SP: Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Hill, Prior (Miller, Marshall, Guzman back ups) RP: Dempster, Wood, Cotts, Howry, Eyre, Ohman, (Wuertz, Novoa, Ryu, Mateo, Walrond, Marmol back ups) Baseball in all its forms is about the numbers. after wins and losses which is the Emperor of all numbers comes 25-man roster followed by the 40-man roster. As I look at this numbers don't lie: Breaking from spring training I will start with Prior and Wood. If they are indeed healthy they will not start on the DL and looking at things I could see Wood beginning as the long reliever in April and evolve into a short reliever as the season goes on. Miller is insurance for Prior so if Prior is healthy then Cubs either go with a 12-man bullpen and 13 position player by putting Miller into the pen as the long reliever. That means that Weurtz, Novoa and co go to AAA if they or Miller are not traded. However I think that Cubs really want to go with a 11-man staff and 14 position players, meaning it appears that Pagan or Cedeno or Theriot are competing for the 24th and 25th man on the roster. If the Cubs go with a 12-man staff one of those three are in AAA. It appears that unless the Cubs find another 5th OF'er Pagan has made it unless Piniella is willing to go to Chicago with DeRosa and Theriot as back up OF'ers. Thus it comes down between Cedeno and Theriot. What all this could foretell? Obviously Jones is the real tradable commodity. Signing Floyd could mean many things, but I doubt is it means full time starter so either Murton moves to RF as as a starter or platoons with Floyd or a new RF'er or Floyd goes there and platoons with a RF'er and keeps the position open for Pie to ascend. But more than that it appears the Cubs have players to deal, on both 25-man and 40-man rosters.

starting LF'er. This will either allow the Cubs to trade Jones by June 15th or Murton. Money talks. Now this leads to Pie who will be the next RF'er coming after August or in '08...meaning Murton plays RF until Pie ascends. Now if Floyd is healthy and hits I can see Piniella doing what is common for LaRussa do in StL, changing the OF configuration as the game situation unfolds. Starting lineup against RH pitching: Soriano CF DeRosa 2B Lee 1B Ramirez 3B Floyd LF Barrett C Jones RF Izturis SS Against LH pitching Soriano CF Theriot 2B Lee 1B Ramirez 3B Murton LF Blanco C DeRosa 2B Cedeno SS This would mean the Cubs roster going north without injuries is: IF: Barrett/Blanco C, Lee/Ward 1B, DeRosa/Theriot 2B Izturis/Cedeno SS, Ramirez 3B (DeRosa) OF: Floyd/Murton LF, Soriano/Pagan CF, Jones (Pagan/DeRosa) RF 14 position players SP: Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Hill (open Prior/Miller) RP: Dempster, Howry, Eyre, Cotts, Ohman, Wood, (open) A trade is screaming to appear now. My guess is that a 3B/OF/C utility player would be perfect removing Cedeno but Cedeno if he makes the team and plays like in Sept '05 and winter '06-'07 could be a good utility addition allowing the normally brittle Izurtis rest against RHP'ng although that would mean Theriot platooning at 2B could be awefully young. I could see the Cubs also substituting Pagan in LF or RF in late innings. roster is not set: Also Cubs could go north with Wood as the original long reliever and work into a short reliever role. This could mean (according to plan appearing on paper) that if Prior is in fact healthy than Miller is the long reliever as Wood moves to short reliever. This could allow the Cubs to trade either Dempster or Miller in mid season or even Howry or Eyre. My guess is that Piniella will not have a set closer until August if Wood develops into a dominant reliever playing a hot hand and a committee keeping Dempser/Howry/Eyre fresh and active. Ohman will probably be the LOOGY and Cotts the middle rubber arm reliever. Starting pitching will come down as the real difference maker, If Prior is really healthy and returns effective this changes everything. It moves Hill or Marquis to the bottom of the order unless either of them are effective. But something will happen, whether it is Zambrano getting sore (jinx) or something,

#1 (not counting Guzman). Higher ceiling than Veal. Pawelek too? I think he has a higher ceiling than Pawelek (and I'm probably not as down on Mark as others). I could see arguments for Jeff being ranked below Veal and Gallagher, even Pawelek. I'm as high on our pitching prospects as anybody on this board, and this is the way I see it. Veal Samardzija Pawelek Gallagher That's for ceiling... overall (including value for being able to produce soon and likelyhood of reaching ceiling) ranking would go like this: Veal Gallagher Samardzija Pawelek without knowing their respective mental capabilities or their competitiveness and drive. Each has to gain more command and control and build another pitch. Pawelek embodies the southpaw development speed and has to improve mechanics, Samardzija is very big strong and athletic. He has already competed at a top level and under pressure. So I think he will fast track. Gallagher could be as smart and crafty as Maddux only time will tell. Veal has all the tools, lefty big, power and a curve. However odds are that only two will make it. Other good thoughts are that I heard privately as reported in the press Prior is actually healthy for the first time since '04. Figure the fastest for Samardzija is June '08, more likely September call up in '08. This is the same timetable for Veal where Gallagher could be seen sometime this year if everything goes well. Depending on the wish of Zambrano...get signed long term (I wonder what his demand is, Zito or Schmidt like?, if signed) Zambrano, Hill, Prior (if healthy) or Marquis , Lilly, competition for open spot with Marquis in '08 with Gallagher. If Gallagher makes the team Marquis becomes tradeable. In '09 figure Veal and Samardzija are on the horizon and if they ascend than someone else is tradeable.