Ivy Walls

First the press have bits and pieces of the proposed trade, second J Jones is not just a hitter but an important defensive OF'er and member of the clubhouse, all things as or more important than a mid level 5th hitter. Cubs to subtract and hopefully add and develop Pie....and the rest of the team.

That leaves $100M. My guess is that the Cubs plan a big acquisition this year taking the payroll (including Zambrano's extension) to $135M, but that is the plan.....it must be executed. The things the Cubs must do is increase their payroll to the NYM's level and push StL and Hous to respond.

as it stands you are correct, but unless something strange happens I suspect that Hendry has a couple trades to make. First, I don't think Floyd can pass a physical so the Cubs are not in any hurry adding him to the bench. Second, Cubs have perceived depth in pitching, especially the bullpen in that they have bodies. My guess is that Hendry is waiting for unofficial reports about Prior, Miller and Wood. Third this is not a balanced roster yet. Fourth, I suspect that Pie, Moore, Marshall, Mateo, Marmol, Ryu and even Cedeno have seasoning needed in AAA. Lastly, I don't like the current defensive alignment in the OF, far too weak in all positions. Soriano is best suited for left field, he then offers the club a strength there with his arm. Murton might turn into a star but unless he develops a canon in RF or more speed for CF he is not as good as Soriano, so where does he play? I could be wrong and Soriano could play RF and Murton LF, but who plays CF. Jones simply sucks. He throws with one finger and the league will run,,,run....run....and score at will, he can't hit LHP. The middle infield is 34th done. DeRosa is okay at 2B, big improvement from Walker/Perez and Blanco is a good platoon mate, but Barrett is a championship caliber top defender. So there is still problems up the middle, where even an improvement at SS could be had. So looking at the situation Hendry is not done yet. I has been discussed over and over again. The other issue is the Cubs need another big bat in the lineup. My dream is get A Rodriquez, (if Johnson is available so is A-Rod). What would the Yankees take for A-Rod, the answer is simple: Cabrera straight up. So how could the Cubs get Cabrera in a 3-way?

Now the most interesting would be Andruw Jones who still is 29 years old, possesses a plethera of consecutive Gold Gloves dating back to 1998 and is a power hitter deluxe. He is making a bargain basement $13.5M. To acquire Andruw might involve more money for the no trade clause (10/5) of an extension involving Soriano style money at 2007 & option in 2008 but also in a complex deal with another team, (TB and Baldelli). Cubs could orchastrate a three-way deal where they send Murton, Moore or E Patterson or AAA prospect to TB for Baldelli and then send Baldelli to Atlanta with AAA pitcher or other pitching prospect to Atlanta for A. Jones. Of course this seems like a low price for A. Jones but Atlanta wants to get value for a disgruntled FA and get out of the $13M contract now. My bet is they are willing to trade a younger LaRoche for a Beltre in Seattle and then move C Jones to 1B. This would leave the Cubs with Soriano, A. Jones and J. Jones in the OF and give the Cubs a better defensive OF and big pop in the lineup that would probably be: Soriano-DeRosa-DLee-ARamirez-AJones-JJones-Barrett-Izturis

The rumor/leak of Floyd being close to signing was denied by Hendry & Co. (seems as if Floyd told friends he believed the they were close) But what does this portend? My thoughts are that the Cubs will use the Floyd money to go after a bench/stopgap CF'er. It is the smart play since it is now well known that CF'ers are in short supply and if/when Pie becomes a full time player Cubs could deal a wily veteran. Who are the options: Erstad: 34 (injured and LHB) a punch and judy hitter he is barely adaquate Finley 41 yrs old (LHB) once a solid everyday player he is was adaquate as a part timer and as recently as '04 a gold glover. Next year's FA possible (trade possibilities) Mike Cameron (CF at SD) and RHB and excellent all around OF'er...hmm? Brady Clark (CF at Milw) and RHB great platoon candidate in CF...hmm? Torii Hunter (CF at MN) and RHB, great OF'er but that puts Pie in AAA...unless Cubs trade Murton and more, probably unlikely Andruw Jones (CF at Atl) this would be another blockbuster and probably involve Murton and more Ryan Church (CF at Wash) back up LHB Corey Patterson (CF on Balt) redux....probably not Aaron Rowland (CF on Phila) now this is another possible or Victorino their RF/CF switch hitter My thoughts are that the Cubs are exploring a trade with Jones and AAA pitching for a multi purpose OF'er to either back up/platoon or stop gap with or for Pie. Floyd appears to be a back up back up if/when Cubs trade Jones where Jones will play CF if not traded for a CF'er and also if Pie doesn't make the team in ST. Here are my scenerios that appear on paper: #1 Cameron (because Piniella likes him and he can play all three OF positions and hit for power). This could be a platoon with Pie or allow Pie to go to AAA. Trade scenerio; Jones, Pagan or prospect & AAA pitcher choice. #2 Aaron Rowland (good defender and non block platoon mate for Pie, he too can play all OF positions), Trade scenerio Jones & AAA pitcher choice. #3 Brady Clark (fair defender and non block platoon mate for Pie), trade scenerio Jones and Pagan. Milw then ships Jenkins. #4 Last option, Cubs sign Finley

Plus Piniella I have heard privately believes he can personally develop the player at this level. What the Cubs need is are a pair RHB's and play CF & RF if they are unable to trade Jones for better. I like the idea of Craig Wilson or Kearns in RF but CF they need a servicable platoon player.

acquired by the Cubs for Nevin (who did we trade for Nevin by the way) RHP Harben is signed to a minor league contract. This is part of the non tender purging....that included Reyes This is bargain basement stuff.

First thing there is little rotation status outside the first week. Rarely does the ace line up with another team's ace because the schedule is so unbalanced. That said there are ace's and stoppers and there are pitchers who are inning burners. That said the goal of a 5-man rotation first objective is to exceed 900 IP (out of 1450 or IP) or 60%, each percentage point above that mark usually equates to more wins above 90 and those below knock you under 90. This is why a quality start is 6-IP or above. Secondly, let us talk about Prior. If he is healthy he should be effective, how much stamina and how effective remains to be seen in the competitive arena. If the Cubs are going to compete for the WS with this roster construction, Prior needs to become an ace and stopper in '07, whether he starts before or after Zambrano. It would be ideal that he is separated by one other pitcher from Zambrano. Thirdly, Marquis's '06 was an abberration, and was contrary to his relative talent/stuff. Was he tipping his pitches, maybe, tipping a change up is disasterous for it is a timing pitch, meaning competitive athletes can anticipate. If Rothschild was able to figure it out that is why there are comeback players of the year. Fourth: Lilly and Marquis over the last two years are ranked 30 and 37th in each respective leagues so they are middle of the rotation pitchers. At their age they should be at the apex of their career. Hill: had 6 good weeks but still needs to develop one more solid pitch and he could be devastatitng, but he is still a young MLB pitcher, just like Zam was in '03. Five: Those who never competed and prepared for a collegiate or professional athletic competition don't know John Crapper about what they are talking about. Six: Miller is in the same role as Rusch last year. Marshall, Guzman, Marmol, Mateo, Ryu are AAA or AAAA pitchers right now. My guess is that Hendry is probably working a pretty big trade to finish revamping the OF and possibly the middle infield.

Zambrano is a $20M pitcher and will be asking for 5 years at 29 when he is again free he will see more, Zambrano is in an extraordinary position, I think it goes $20M-$22M-$23-$25M-$25M or $110M and that is before spring training.

Wouldn't have minded him as a backup infielder. I thought he could have been a good 25th player next to Ward on the PH'g bench and back up A-Ram

and he was tied with Marquis the same guy the Cubs paid $7M a year for till '09 is over.

If the Braves are pursuing Baldelli, would they be willing to part with Andruw Jones? The Rays want Chuck James but the Braves are offering Davies. What if the Cubs stepped in and helped the deal go through while at the same time netting Andruw Jones? The Cubs could swap Joneses with the Braves and send a couple of pitchers in the Marshall, Marmol, Mateo group. To help the Braves with the loss of Escobar and Giles, the Cubs might even offer up Patterson, Cedeno, or Theriot. Sure, the Braves could get Baldelli and keep Jones. Baldelli could play a corner spot and then replace Andruw in 2008. But if the Braves are hot after Baldelli, his greater value is in CF. Jones could be moved. Getting involved in this could help in a number of ways. The Braves might be able to use some of the pieces gained from the Cubs to entice the Rays to do the deal with Davies instead of James. Or, by getting more pitchers from the Cubs, the Braves may be less reluctant to send James to the Rays to get the deal done. Either way, I think these are discussions the Cubs should become involved in. A. Jones would look very nice in CF patrolling between Murton and Soriano. Andruw Jones would be a great pickup but I think the Braves would demand Murton & Marshall & E Patterson and one of the other AAA M's or even Guzman...they then would ship Davies and a Cub AAA and package for Baldelli.... Cubs appear stuck with J Jones and that might not be bad, since Theriot or DeRosa could platoon with Jones against RHP'ers and the Cubs could have a balanced lineup for '07. They then could sign A-Jones and then trade J-Jones in '08 by inserting Pie into LF or allow Jones to go FA and insert Pie in CF and live with the platoon another year.

I think in part the league is disciplining TB as they continuely overprice themselves instead of looking at their strategic growth. Crawford and Baldelli are merely means to an end....meaning improvement to a competitive team on the field....right now they are not competitive with Crawford or Baldelli. Crawford offers them the most help on the way of improving....Murton-Marshall & Ohman (or Weurtz & Marmol) would improve the club by getting a OF'er with in level production and then add young pitching & relief. Then trade Baldelli or Duke for another three-for-one, all MLB ready or super A level prospect. Keeping them offers nothing but good players who would fit into roles on contending teams...TB has to work and continue to make improvements incrementally and then get lucky with players who turn into something. Look at Florida....look at Arizona, look at Seattle or Oakland....they make trades that appear on the surface to be underneath the value but their clubs improve.

Here is the situation in the nutshell: Instead of probably 1/2 or more of the starts with rookies Cubs will have four experienced starters and one semi-rookie. Instead of being one of the most ineffective offensive clubs the Cubs will have Soriano who scored and drove in more runs than anyone on the club last year. If D-Lee remains healthy and comes back as strong that too. To me the entire championship season boils down to these four components: A) Piniella developing an effective and embraced platoon system with LF, CF, SS, 2B and catcher. Notice it is up the middle (except for LF) and also is able to rest Lee, Ramirez and Soriano at least 25-30 games. B) Will Prior return healthy by May and emerge as the Cubs #2 starter? This then puts the Cubs rotation (provided all five are healthy throughout the season) in championship status and might allow the Cubs to field an 11-man staff. C) Will Pie emerge as the starting CF and develop as a difference maker on the club? D) Will Wood become the wild card fireman and build towards being '08 and beyond closer on the Cubs. I could see Dempster doing well as he did in '05 and 1st half and then being traded and Wood becoming the regular closer with Howry and Eyre and Cotts as the regular 7 & 8th inning stoppers. Finally what will be the personality? Will the Cubs be a team that goes out and gets an early lead and then protects it or will they be a club to come from behind?

It appears that the rent-a-CF'er is not available or unpalable (as I suspect) there is none really available or wanted. I suspect Lofton did something here that is unforgivable and not going to be announced either. In today's Tribune Piniella mentions his experience with Pie in the context of Baldielli and Crawford where in Spring Training they earned a starting spot. This in context with Cubs about to finalize an agreement with Floyd. I suspect that the Cubs believe that they can successfully work in Pie between Soriano and Floyd/Murton with Pagan and Theriot being utility OF'ers. This makes sense as Pie could work into the lineup in the 7th spot and eventually move up to the 6th spot. Soriano RF DeRosa 2B D-Lee 1B Floyd/Murton LF (against RHP'ers otherwise A-Ram against LHP'ers) A-Ramirez (against RHP'ers, see above, Murton against LHP'ers) Barrett/Blano C Pie CF (if he succeeds at the plate he moves up to 6th) Izturis I think this is the starting lineup in 2007 Floyd might work himself in as the season progresses. With Ward, Theriot, Pagan, Blanco/Barrett and Murton/Floyd Cubs need one or two more players on the bench in this configuration; again I am thinking Cedeno makes the team as the utility IF'er and they trade or sign someone who can still PH and play 3B.

If and this is big IF, all the pitchers you mentioned are healthy and effective the least effective goes to the bullpen unless it is Hill who has options and is better served in AAA, which I doubt is going to be the case. Zambrano remains on the Cubs if they are contending even though he is unsigned unless the Cubs get a Randy Johnson return like Seattle got, but that is in July. If Prior is healthy he is the #2 and he stays, because he has years left, and his value on the market is diminished because of his injury history. Lilly and Marquis are in the rotation for at least the next two years. Miller is the tradeable one but is probably the Rusch spot as the long reliever spot starter because injury and spot starting is inevitable.

Hill is not going to be traded, he is insurance for Zambrano going to the NY under a $200M contract next year. That said, Prior is not going to pitch until he is actually healthy and effective because what I said above. Miller is small potatoes, he might start 5 or 6 games and then be long relief like Rusch was last year. Marshall has to learn to pitch an effective slider or cutter or both, Marmol has to hit the strike zone more than 50%. Guzman is not going to have a break out year, he is hurt and Mateo and Ryu belong in a small market. As for the rest look for Gallagher to emerge with a slider this year and make the Cubs feel okay about losing Zambrano to the Yankees after beating them in the WS

and a difference maker. I think Jones and Dempster, followed by Ohman are the probable suspects in dealing for a rental CF'er. The thing is whether the Cubs could engineer a real difference maker like Tejada or Posada and include one or more of the AAA pitchers and Barrett.

I also agree that for the Cubs to truly contend more than a WC or close division winner Prior has to emerge as a legitimate #2 ace of the staff. As for Marquis he had a mechanical flaw in '06 that Duncan and Co. failed to identify and Marquis went out and found an old coach and solved it in the off season. Now for the trading merry-go-round, can you say Jones, Dempster and possibly Barrett? To me the real target is someone to occupy CF and then become the 4th OF'er when in mid season Pie emerges. The other big acquisition would be someone like Posada who knows how to win and provide the Cubs a genuine WS catcher.

Marquis discovered a mechanical flaw in his delivery that was effecting his performance and has corrected over the winter. Supposedly Rothschild and another Cub brass have evaluated him. If true it is a great $$/talent pickup.

The lineup will probably could look like: against tough RHP's Soriano-RF Lofton-CF D-Lee-1B A-Ramirez-3B Church-LF Barrett-C DeRosa-SS Patterson-2B pitcher against tough LHP's Soriano-RF Theriot-2B D-Lee-1B A-Ramirez-3B Murton-LF Blanco-C Pagan-CF Izturis (or Cedeno)-SS pitcher

They are not going to move Soriano anywhere but RF where he will be an All Star. Church is a good young MLB player who needs a good manager who will treat him without nonsensical games. That said; outside of Soriano, D-Lee, A-Ramirez I don't see the Cubs having a set everyday lineup. First if Barrett stays (that is unlikely but until a deal is made) he will catch every other day with Blanco. In the middle infield I see DeRosa-Theriot and E Patterson and possibly Cedeno (who gets a second chance) platooning regularly. If Izturis is kepted (until mid season) than E Patterson goes to AAA, but he is close to ready. In the OF I see the Cubs getting Floyd or trading for Church to platoon with with Murton in LF and something like trading for Baldelli or signing Lofton along with Pagan in CF. Ward is the quinessential PH off the bench. Piniella won't go strict lefty/righty either and then go with a 11-man pitching staff... Opening day: SP Zambrano-Lilly-Hill-Marquis (who will surprise because of mechanic correction over the winter) RP: Howry-Eyre-Cotts-Novoa-Miller-Wood-Wuertz (with Prior going on the 15-day and called up in April). IF: D-Lee-Theriot-DeRosa-A-Ramirez C-Barrett-Blanco OF: Church-Lofton-Soriano Bench: Murton-Pagan-Patterson-Cedeno-Ward-

tell me how to do it

I think Shipman gets picked up too

Choi brought up too fast and too big a hole