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goonys evil twin

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Everything posted by goonys evil twin

  1. goonys evil twin
    It took about 3 minutes, and was necessary to refute your claim that Prior doesn't deserve a raise. So because you put that in there I'm not supposed to reply if I find your claims that Prior doesn't deserve a raise preposterous? What does it mean to have no realities of the game? I said the shortsighted approach to looking at the game (viewing Prior's injury and saying he doesn't deserve a raise, ignoring that in a 3-year window he compares with some of the more highly compensated players at his position) gives you absolutely no perspective on the realities of the game. I didn't say you have no realities, whatever that would mean anyway. I'm saying, you can't look at Prior, say he was injured and just declare that because of that he doesn't deserve a raise. You have to look at the whole picture. Personally I'd love it if he only made $2.5m next year, leaving that extra $2.5m for other player acquisition. But when you look at the big picture, he was absolutely in the right to void his contract, he earned that right, he deserves to get what he can through arbitration, and he earned that right. Arbitration eligible doesn't mean he made all his starts. If you want to argue that injury time should take away from arbitration eligibility, and therefore players like Prior shouldn't become arbitration eligible until they put in three healthy seasons, go right ahead. You won't get far against the MLBPA, but go right ahead. Excuse me for basing my opinion on facts that are readily accessible with minimal research effort. I'm not rolling my eyes at you or your opinion, I'm just telling you why I think you're dead wrong. You can have whatever opinion you want, but don't be upset when somebody with a different opinion lays out the reasons why they think you are wrong.
  2. goonys evil twin
    I think it could make them worse, but probably makes them stagnant in the present, and worse in the future.
  3. goonys evil twin
    Baltimore and the Cubs aren't on the same level as far as recent years. They are going on about 8 straight years of sub .500 baseball, and don't look to be any better. The Cubs have been over .500 3 of the past 5 years, and in the playoffs twice since BMore's last trip. In addition, they've been shedding payroll, while the Cubs have consistently added payroll. He's also on record talking about wanting to see progress toward winning. To players, progress toward winning = spending more and more, the Cubs are doing that more so than the O's. And it's not entirely his choice where he goes. He really sounds like he wants out of BMore, and as long as he doesn't end up in Pittsburgh, Cincy, Tampa or Kansas City, he might be happy to leave.
  4. goonys evil twin
    Baltimore could trade him there out of spite. Detroit has shown a willingness to overpay for big names in recent years. To many ballplayers that means more for "trying to win" than actual smart moves would mean.
  5. goonys evil twin
    You might be right. But something to remember is they are about 2.5 years apart, and Barrett has been significantly better at the plate the past 2 seasons. Teams realize that catchers don't generally age gracefully, which could be a big reason why Molina hasn't gotten many bites. And while Barrett is signed for about 2/8, Molina could easily be looking for something like 3/15 in this market, which would make MB more attractive. Also, if you're trading Barrett, it makes more sense to use him in a package than just 1 for 1 and then sign Molina. That would be an offensive downgrade, and you should only make the moves if you could get a significant offensive upgrade elsewhere.
  6. goonys evil twin
    The problem of course is that ERA is not a good way to judge a reliever's effectiveness, and that non-elite relievers have a very short shelf life anyway. A guy might also be effective in the 7th and not in the 9th because when he comes in during the 9th he's asked to get one or two outs, and doesn't face the big boys. There's a lot of variables to look at.
  7. goonys evil twin
    Prior and Zambrano are going to be relative bargains throughout their arbitration years. The only way players become non bargains in aribtration years is when they bust from the outset or take total nosedives like Patterson. If either Prior or Zambrano were free agents this offseason, they would have made a killing.
  8. goonys evil twin
    I'm not a big Barrett guy myself. He's put up some solid numbers at the plate, but I could easily see him reverting with that swing at everything approach he takes. So if the Cubs could trade him for help elsewhere, and sign a guy like Molina to a reasonable contract, I'd have no problem. I just don't see it as a possibility. And simply replacing Barrett with Molina does nothing to help the team on its own.
  9. goonys evil twin
    I think the vast majority of guys could handle it. It's only the few like Hawkins that fail. If you put up consistently great numbers in the 7th or 8th, odds are more likely than not that you can put them up in the 9th. The tough thing is not finding a guy with the mentality, the tough part is finding the guy who can put up the numbers in the first place. Most relievers turned closer that fail do so because they weren't that good of a reliever in the first place, and were thrust into a position they couldn't handle, not because of mental issues, but because they weren't good pitchers.
  10. goonys evil twin
    So instead of paying Prior $5m, which he has earned, deserves and is likely to get, you'd rather let him walk, and then go out and trade for Kris Benson and Matt Morris. Please go apply to the Cardinals so they can be run into the ground. This overzealous disdain for Prior and his injuries is utterly preposterous. Over the past 3 season, when he was 22, 23 and 24, Prior has amassed a record of 35-17, with 497 IP, 572 K, 157 BB, 438 H, 1.19 WHIP, 3.23 ERA. Compare that to some recent big money signees: AJ Burnett 19-20, 352 IP, 332 K, 135 BB, 304 H, 1.25 WHIP, 3.61 ERA Josh Becket 33-25, 476 IP, 464 K, 168 BB, 421 H, 1.23 WHIP, 3.42 ERA Jon Garland 42-34, 630 IP, 336 K, 197 BB, 623 H, 1.30 WHIP, 4.29 ERA Kevin Millwood 32-29, 555 IP, 440 K, 171 BB, 547 H, 1.29 WHIP, 3.83 ERA That's 4 players, all but Becket making significantly more money than Prior is making, or will make after arbitration, and Josh will probably make more this season. Not one of them has outperformed Prior over the past 3 years. Garland has more IP, but most of those innings were poorly pitched. And you're sitting here complaining that Prior exercised a right he had in his contract to void his $2.5 million deal for this season and go into arbitration where he'll make between $4-5 million. Are you kidding me? Do you realize what else is out there? This short-sighted approach to looking at the game of baseball gives you absolutely no perspective on the realities of the game.
  11. goonys evil twin
    I don't think it was clear at all. It said 2004, but it was not clear if it carried over, and it makes perfect sense that it would carry over. I don't understand why people are freaking out about this. We've been aware there was a chance it would happen for years, and it became clear it most likely would happen quite a while ago.
  12. goonys evil twin
    I'd try and sign him for around 3/27-30 with a 4th year team option around $14-15m (which could easily be a bargain for the team by then) and maybe $1-2m buyout. Too much. He's arb eligible, not a Free Agent. Ozwalt Got 2 years/16.9 last year. 3/25 is top dollar for arb. eligible pitchers and I think Prior would ask for and get 5 in arb. 3/25 is generous at this stage in his carreer. He could get 5 easily this year, 8-10 by next year, and 10+ the third year of arbitration. You give him a little more now so that he'll put off his first year of free agency.
  13. goonys evil twin
    Silly son of a gun. He's better than Jones, who you guaranteed $15m for.
  14. goonys evil twin
    I'd try and sign him for around 3/27-30 with a 4th year team option around $14-15m (which could easily be a bargain for the team by then) and maybe $1-2m buyout.
  15. goonys evil twin
    He does deserve a raise. He signed a contract that gave him the option to void his deal once he became arbitration eligible. The Cubs offered him that option in the contract they signed him to. He is arbitration eligible. He earned that eligibility. He earned the right to void his final year and he earned the right to file for arbitration. Even injured Prior is worth way more than $2.5m. The past 3 years he's put together a stretch that was easily worth as much as the many pitchers signing 3/27-30m deals. It's not like he backed out of a contract and is holding out for more money. The void option was part of the contract.
  16. goonys evil twin
    I'm probably going to get bashed for this. But hear me out. If Prior wants more money then he should show he can stay healthy. I say if the Cubs can get Tejada and Bedard for him then do it. To me he's still in that prospect mode. He hasn't proven that he's durable enough to handle a full season. Yes, his injuries aren't all related to pitching. But he still hasn't proved his worth for an entire season. So ranting was done in the above. :D Prior is too brittle to earn a raise from $2.5m (Neifi's money, less than Rusch)? But you want Bedard to replace him, a guy with a history of pitching related injuries, who is older than Prior and hasn't come close to dubplicating his success. The grass is not always greener people. Prior at $2.5m was an absolute steal. His arbitration price will still make him very affordable, and he will be somewhat penalized for the injuries that kept him from being at his best.
  17. goonys evil twin
    I probably say something like "I hope he does". But more often than not whether or not that feeling is right just falls in line with the rate that you would expect the player to succeed. With few exceptions, I don't really get into objective analysis type discussions while at the game. Just look at the game threads here. Guys are always talking about getting that feeling that somebody will come through. Usually it doesn't happen, and it's ignored. But on the rare times when the guess is right, people keep bringing up how great it was that somebody predicted it. I'd bet on just about every pitch, somebody somewhere is predicting what will happen, based on their feelings of a person's clutchness, and is dead wrong. I brought a girl to Wrigley one time in the mid 90's, sat in the RF bleachers. Brian McRae was up. I forget the situation, but I said something like, this is when he'll hit one out. He put one about 2 rows in front of us. It was just chance. I actually believed in stuff like clutch and intangibles at the time. I was raised on the mythology of baseball. That was before I started reading about the new wave of thought coming into the game.
  18. goonys evil twin
    Then why didn't Hendry keep him and not the troublemaker? Hendry f'd up. Must have got too fascinated w/ the walk or something. Yeah, as if that's anywhere close to reality. Do you think Hendry values obp whatsoever?? Yes, but only as it pertains to average. I don't think he values the walk nearly as much as he should. He's never been shy to employ pitchers who give them up, and he's never shown a willingness to value a player's ability to draw a walk as part of his game (with the one exception of Mark Bellhorn, who he quickly soured on). He'd like a .300 average and .340 OBP over a .275 average and .365 OBP.
  19. goonys evil twin
    The concept certainly does exist, because people are always looking for complicated explanations for why stuff happens. But the reality of clutch is that it is really only a crutch word used to describe regular occurences in irregular situations. I wouldn't think that the "clutch" explanation is a simple explanation for why something happens - you can simply say so and so is clutch. I think we might just agree to disagree, but I know my dart partner is more clutch than me - even though we are equal skill levels. And I know MJ is more clutch than Scottie even though they are both great players. They are both great, but MJ is far better. You act as if they are equal in other situations. Clutch isn't the simple explanation. It's the complicated one I talked about. It's the stuff that keeps sportswriters in business. I like to think of it as the overromanticizing of sports.
  20. goonys evil twin
    Then why didn't Hendry keep him and not the troublemaker? Hendry f'd up. Must have got too fascinated w/ the walk or something. Yeah, as if that's anywhere close to reality.
  21. goonys evil twin
    The concept certainly does exist, because people are always looking for complicated explanations for why stuff happens. But the reality of clutch is that it is really only a crutch word used to describe regular occurences in irregular situations.
  22. goonys evil twin
    Who is mocking whom? I see you and plenty of others ridiculing people who put a lot of emphasis on objective analysis. Please point it out. I have said on here more than once that stats are important and useful but are not everything. If we can all agree on that there is no dispute. There is a dispute. In this very thread the anti-moneyball types have been mocking those who choose to focus on objective analysis over subjective opinion.
  23. goonys evil twin
    So they can't perform without their teammates performing first? What time period do those numbers illustrate? 1 year, 2 years, career? Those types of splits generally do not carry over year to year, and often completely flip flop from time to time. For instance, while he was good, Sammy alternated between years when he performed better in close/late situations than his overall numbers, and years when he performed worse in close/late than his overall numbers. ARod has had amazing postseason runs, and bad postseasons. Jeter has been good in the "clutch" or came up short in the "clutch" but in the end, he's been consistent no matter the situation.
  24. goonys evil twin
    Who is mocking whom? I see you and plenty of others ridiculing people who put a lot of emphasis on objective analysis.
  25. goonys evil twin
    Then why didn't Hendry keep him and not the troublemaker?
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