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It's still hard to see Fowler signing a short term, prove it deal to come back. If he signs one of those, he's going to want AB's to prove himself to get back on the market. On the whole, I I get the deal for both sides, but I'm not a huge fan of Revere. I think he'll be miscast as a CF (unless they slap him in LF, keep Taylor in CF and starting, and limit Werth's AB's? Doesn't sound like it right now.) He does enough offensively that you can see the offensive fit for need, but eh. They probably just don't want to commit the money to someone like Fowler right now, but on paper, Fowler and trading Storen for prospects seemed to make more sense. The deal's a good one for Toronto. They get a good pen arm to bolster the pen, and they give up an asset where they had a capable replacement to give it a go.

In terms of Fowler, the team that makes some sense in the end would be the Nationals, if they wanted to spend. They could use an OF to give Taylor (and more importantly, Robles) some more time, but they could also go Gerardo Parra. I wonder if he would be a big enough upgrade for Cleveland to consider. If the Orioles miss out on bigger targets, I guess I could see him as an option, although that's an odd fit. Does feel like the market is dwindling in terms of teams that may value him high.

I'm curious what Fowler is demanding for Span to come off so much earlier than him. I'm starting to wonder if Fowler may be the bat that stayed on the market too long, because the big name OF's will likely go before him. I'm thinking there's going to be a "rush" of deals in the next week or so, with things less than 2 months away from getting going. Still sort of surprised that Span got a clean 3 years. Thought he would have to do 2 and maybe an easy option. If he's healthy, great fit and addition for the GIants.

yeah, not sure how the heck that happened.

Looking at BA's college list ...http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/160109/ I'm somewhat ambivalent about the college class right now. On the one hand, that's an excellent college class of arms to start the year. Now, pitchers ... you never know (I think it was, uh, 2006? when there was an awful spring, draft-wise, for a ton of preseason arms.) Still, this college crop seems to have it all - power arms, command guys, ceiling, floor. It looks like a really superb class of arms, and as of now, there looks to be good depth of arms through the first 5 rounds or so. Could see the two Vandy arms (Stone/Kilichowski) make big moves up the ladder. That said, it's arms, and the college positional players, as of now, seem really ... somewhat underwhelming to me right now. I like Senzel's swing - looks nice and compact, with the potential for pop. Dunno, just seems like a weak crop as of now. That said, a long way to go, and a lot of changes are bound to happen.

Looking at BA's college list ...http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/160109/ I'm somewhat ambivalent about the college class right now. On the one hand, that's an excellent college class of arms to start the year. Now, pitchers ... you never know (I think it was, uh, 2006? when there was an awful spring, draft-wise, for a ton of preseason arms.) Still, this college crop seems to have it all - power arms, command guys, ceiling, floor. It looks like a really superb class of arms, and as of now, there looks to be good depth of arms through the first 5 rounds or so. Could see the two Vandy arms (Stone/Kilichowski) make big moves up the ladder. That said, it's arms, and the college positional players, as of now, seem really ... somewhat underwhelming to me right now. I like Senzel's swing - looks nice and compact, with the potential for pop. Dunno, just seems like a weak crop as of now. That said, a long way to go, and a lot of changes are bound to happen.

Looking at BA's college list ...http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/160109/ I'm somewhat ambivalent about the college class right now. On the one hand, that's an excellent college class of arms to start the year. Now, pitchers ... you never know (I think it was, uh, 2006? when there was an awful spring, draft-wise, for a ton of preseason arms.) Still, this college crop seems to have it all - power arms, command guys, ceiling, floor. It looks like a really superb class of arms, and as of now, there looks to be good depth of arms through the first 5 rounds or so. Could see the two Vandy arms (Stone/Kilichowski) make big moves up the ladder. That said, it's arms, and the college positional players, as of now, seem really ... somewhat underwhelming to me right now. I like Senzel's swing - looks nice and compact, with the potential for pop. Dunno, just seems like a weak crop as of now. That said, a long way to go, and a lot of changes are bound to happen.

Since this was a double-post, rather than having a stupid double-post 37 minutes apart), I was thinking more if Wei-Yin Chen's price tag came down in years and AAV (looks like he might be the tough luck, but you waited too long (and had a QO) pitcher this market), and then to see if we could use Kyle Hendricks in some package for some other help. Also, since this is a random rumination post now, was wondering if the Cubs may want to revisit the catching market if they could move Montero (since the Nats are supposedly looking at catchers as well). Anyhow, I have no clue how a 37 minute double post happened, as I wasn't even around.

I'm curious if the Gordon signing is a sign for the rest of the market. He took probably close to what he was expected to get initially, but less than what I recall his demands were. If the money for everyone else comes down, would be nice to jump in there and get a "bargain". Of course, this could also be Gordon deciding that the hometown team, the team he grew up rooting for, coming off a WS, was worth a "discount" from his demands.

The idea of Coghlan to the Angels makes some sense ... but if they are a bit tight on money, I'm not sure I wouldn't just into spring with the idea of Daniel Nava as part of a platoon in LF. I actually think the Royals idea makes some sense ... only if they fail to bring back Gordon (or sign a guy). It does feel like KC may look at pitching or a hitter, and whoever bites first, explore the other area in a trade, so perhaps that's something to look at down the line. The idea of a Fuentes for Coghlan swap of some sort makes some sense in that this is the leadership that drafted him (and part of the leadership traded for him). I mean, if we're just shooting teams that could make some sense, some creativity could make the Astros fit. He could conceivably slot in as a first baseman there, a cheap lefthanded bat, and if Singleton came around, Coghlan could be a 1st/corner OF backup. Depending on what happened with Chris Davis, Coghlan could make some sense in Baltimore as a cheap lefty bat with some pop. Realistically, it's probably going to take the OF market settling for a Coghlan trade to happen and the timing makes things tight. More than likely, we're probably bringing him back unless a deal blows our socks off. I'm fine either way.

OOC, since I've been busy, were there reports that Tampa had interest in Coghlan? Because, on paper, it seems ... odd. Kiermaier/Souza Jr. seem likely to get regular AB's in the OF, and they have enough guys to piece together a platoon for LF (something like Guyer/Morrison would seem like a capable OF platoon). Or, if they feel like Mahtook turned a corner, they could perhaps run him out there on a regular basis. There's still Desmond Jennings if he's not moved. All in all, don't really see the Coghlan fit (doesn't seem like he'd be utilized in a super-util role), and I'm more inclined to think any move they make is with an eye on the future ... or an eye on big time impact now. Would love Will Smith, but I figure that would be costly, since he could be in line to close, has a couple more arb controlled years, and is a division rival.

I would like that very much, though not sure how feasible it is. Rays are believed to like Villanueva and Vogelbach, though not sure exactly how much. Maybe those two, Coghlan and someone like Blackburn/Sands/Steele/Williams? It'd have to hurt more than that, I'd think. I'm not convinced Villanueva has value, due to him being out of options. I do think Vogelbach has a bit more value than what we typically think on here. But he's a 4th piece. After seeing what relievers are bringing in trade, I'd think Underwood would probably have to be put into the spot you've got the list of 4 pitchers. Even then, I'd wonder if Happ needs to be put into Villanueva's spot. I've got no idea how to value Moore at this point. But I keep coming back to that snippet too, that they're interested in Villanueva/Szczur/Vogelbach. If that grouping nets us ANYTHING, count me as happy. If it's anything even closely remote to that, (that is, using any of the above mentioned names) the Cubs would HAVE to do a deal. I mean ... let's face it, Villanueva/Vogelbach/Szczur ... these guys are filler/depth at this point, giving up Coghlan for an improvement elsewhere is something you do, and well, Blackburn/Steele/Sands/Williams are all far away, and realistically, maybe only Steele/Sands have intriguing ceilings (and even that, if we're being honest, is somewhat debatable, although Steele's ceiling does seem plenty strong). I'd hate to give up one of Steele/Sands (and considering Tampa's track record in identifying pitchers and developing them, I'd be antsy that they took the "right" one), but giving up one of those to make a stronger run now ... okay. (and since I missed that report of their interest in the V boys, can someone tell me why? They have guys at the same "track" as those two that, arguably, project better (Richie Shaffer and Casey Gillaspie). I tend to think McGee alone would cost more than 2-3 of those above names. If they are really interested in some sort of McGee and X deal, considering Adames struggles last year offensively, and Robertson may be better off at 2nd, I could see them perhaps ask for Gleyber Torres to try and complete a deal involving McGee and x (although with Adrian Rondon in the wings, they may decide against it). Tampa being Tampa, I could also see them go the route of loading up on younger talent, maybe 2 of our higher ceiling, low level arms, and maybe an upper level positional asset. Dunno, there definitely seem to be fits, particularly with an organization like Tampa Bay that may be willing to take a longer term view of things (as compared with the Indians wanting immediate help). Honestly, if we're pursuing a pen arm in a trade, I'm still curious what Washington does with Drew Storen.

I really like the Kazmir/Maeda moves for them. Maeda, obviously, gives them a righty to throw in the mix, and considering that it seems to be heavily incentive/performance laden, it feels like it should be fine. Kazmir gives them an arm that's been solid and durable the last couple of years, and being in a pitcher's park should help. Worst case seems to be they get stuck with bad contracts for a few years, but with a lot of money coming off the books soon (namely, Ethier and Crawford after 2017), plus the fact that they have that financial strength ... they can probably live with that (and McCarthy's comes off after 2018, if I'm not mistaken). That said, I'm going to be surprised if they end there. They've given themselves depth in case of durability concerns, but now, they've got some pieces they can shop. Namely, Alex Wood in a trade seems like he could fetch a decent return, or be a part of a bigger package. I think they'll probably make a run at a SP (Tampa is still the better fit for them, as Indians want immediate offensive help), but if not, I wonder if they try to swing a trade for a pen arm. Honestly, the move that makes sense to me probably isn't the one that would happen (Alex Wood/2nd tier, non Urias/Seager prospects) for Zach Britton, but I do wonder if they decide to use their depth and go the route of bulking up the bullpen. Certainly could see Drew Storen as a target for them, and wonder if the Red Sox may move a veteran. If Alex Wood isn't used in a trade, I think the best route would be to stuff him in AAA and keep him stretched out and/or "showcased". Still, I tend to think Wood's best value to them now may be as a trade chip in this market, particularly for teams that aren't inclined to spend big on pitching.

Interesting move, wonder if they end up shopping Wood, although not sure how big that market would be after last season. The QO, and maybe Boras shooting a bit high, looks to be really hurting Wei-Yin Chen.

I think ... I'm very ambivalent about the move, mostly because I'm not a huge fan of Murphy, but he has a decent bat. 3 years is okay - I imagine, towards the end of it, if Washington's youngsters start to pan out, then Murphy would become a really expensive utility guy (or they would try and move the last year). I guess, in the grand scheme of things, this should probably be viewed positively, as it buys time for Trea Turner to develop, if necessary (still wouldn't be surprised if he forced the team to keep him in the spring). Going to be curious what the follow-up moves are. They've got to figure out the OF, and they probably would like to sort out the pen. Still wouldn't be surprised if they went after a starter. With the OF market not moving yet, they can probably address that in FA if they wanted.

I think going both ways is an odd way of simply saying that it might happen, but there's a chance it could fall through. Supposedly Phillips wants something to allow the trade to go through since he has 10/5 rights. It's an interesting move dependent upon the cost in prospects. I'm not particularly enamored with the move, as I don't know how much Phillips really helps at this stage, but if they get him on the cheap, the idea of giving Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo more time is not a bad thing.

I don't get this one to be quite honest. The package they gave up for Todd Frazier isn't ridiculous. Montas is a very nice piece, but his chances of staying in the rotation are debatable, and Micah Johnson might not be a 2nd baseman. Thompson is relatively raw for an upper level guy. I can understand why Dave Stewart did what he did, but that was an overpay and a bad trade. This ... doesn't seem to be the case.

I saw this on the phone earlier in the day, and I thought, this is a joke, right? A power hitting 3rd baseman with 2 years of control only got ... Peraza? Schebler? Dixon? Even with his 2nd half slump, Frazier should've gotten more than that. This feels like a case of a team falling in love with a guy, namely Peraza. I think there's some things to like about Peraza, although I would much rather see him back at short. It made sense for the Braves to move him - Albies was a better talent coming up behind, and Simmons was entrenched. It made sense for the Dodgers to keep him there. This rebuilding is going to take a couple seasons for the Reds - they've got pitching depth, but are thin on positional assets. If Peraza could play there, he could potentially become an asset they could flip down the line for more pieces, when they are closer to being ready. That said, Cozart has the job now, although one wonders if selling Cozart now could net them some assets for the future. Don't care for Schebler. I guess ... in GAB, I could see him stroke it if he ever got extended AB's. Perhaps. Still think Winker is a better positional asset than these three, though. As for the Dodgers return ... my thought is this - a) I don't particularly love any of the players. Montas is a nice arm, but with enough rotation questions, and Johnson might not be a 2nd baseman,while Thompson is an upper level guy who is raw. It has more upside than what they gave up, IMO, but I'm a bit more confident that Peraza can find and hold a role in the bigs than I am about those three. b) That said ... for a rebuilding team like the Reds, quality of asset should've led them to take that package. If they are stripping down, they can plop Micah Johnson at 2nd and see if he can stick, and they can add Montas to their plethora of arms and hope it increases their odds of having multiple arms pan out. I know that there's people guessing that this sets the Dodgers up for a run at someone like Jose Fernandez, and while possible, I do wonder if Friedman's other purpose may be simply to build up his stockpile of young arms so that they don't have to be so heavily dependent upon FA. Montas could also conceivably slot into their pen this year and perhaps become a shutdown type of mid-inning-setup type arm.

I don't really think Tilson's best case is anymore than a 4th OF, but he's really one of their few upper level young-ish positional assets that seem to have any sort of hope.

I keep thinking that, if they fail to land a big impact trade, I really wouldn't mind making a move for a pitcher to stash at AAA that's more than your retread/minor league FA type. I'm not particularly enamored with the options that we could turn to early in the year. I'm not talking about any high end young talent that would be expensive in a trade, more a guy like Tyler Wilson of the Orioles (or any number of other guys), someone who has shown some ability in the bigs as a back of the rotation type of guy, has options and could be stashed at AAA. ___ JGA - Off the top, I would say that pitching has always been expensive. In 2011, the Indians dealt Alex White, Drew Pomeranz and more for Ubaldo Jimenez, who had a couple years of control left. Neither White or Pomeranz have panned out as expected, they were both very highly touted, and Pomeranz ranked really high on some lists, IIRC. Our trade perhaps pushed things further even more, but cheap, young pitching has always cost a lot, for the most part.

To piggyback off the above, their system is also in a decline right now (granted the entirety of the minors is weaker than in years past, partly due to the changes in how organizations manage their young talent, and also because, well, there were massive graduations last year - very few systems look strong compared to the recent past). There are still some intriguing arms, but few arms with good ceilings that are above "lottery ticket" status (really, if we're being honest, it's only Reyes, as Flaherty/Gonzalez/Weaver have modest ceilings, best case, mid-rotation type arm ceilings but even then, that's debatable). There are few positional assets of note, and most are too far away (Tilson seems like he could step in sooner than later). The lack of close to ready positional assets is why I thought they might go all-out on a short-term deal for Heyward, to bridge the gap for when their positional assets are ready. Realistically, they should take the first half of the season to assess where they are. The combination of aging core and unknown youth (as TT noted), plus that they are coming off a 100 win season), affords them that opportunity. That said, if things go sideways, they really should sell at the deadline. The Cardinals being the Cardinals, they probably aren't going to massively tank and rebuild, but the thing about having an all-around decent roster is that you can likely garner good returns for your solid assets, still field a solid team, and look to build from there. The margin of error is slimmer, but they can probably try that route and hope some current prospects develop. I mean, it's not hard to imagine Trevor Rosenthal netting them a huge return at the deadline, and they can go with Tuivailala as the closer and see if he works. It's not hard to see one of their solid and steady SP arms perhaps being an intriguing asset at the deadline. With the money influx they supposedly have, they can start saving towards making aggressive moves in the next two off-seasons. All in all, I agree with Mozeliak's direction here, if that is the case. I think it would, instead, by a mistake if they aggressively pursue FA's on the board. Now ... if they can pry away some young asset for a team (I see Cardinals fans dreaming about Machado) that might be a different story, but I think it's going to be tough for that to occur).

Doesn't look bad relative to pre vs post opt out cost. Still think they might need another bat.

Appel had himself a solid second half. I think his ceiling projection is still what it ... should've been ... when he came out of Stanford, a possible mid-rotation arm, maybe a tick better, a "2/3" type arm if you wanted to use numbers. Never understood the huge fascination with him, although I certainly "got" it as to why he was picked. I still really love the deal for the Phillies. I get why the Astros did it, but even in this day, you can still "find" solid closers (hello, Hector Rondon). Heck, I'm not convinced Appel/Velasquez couldn't have been a solid closer next year for them, but obviously, there's a greater level of risk. For the Phillies, yeah, you hope to get some positional talent mixed in there, but for some reason, Derek Fisher didn't pass his physicals. Appel is "safer" and close to ready, and they really didn't need Giles cheap years during the rebuild, so you grab the best talent, whatever it is, possible. Their two highest ceiling arms in that deal are a bit less risky because they are ready to be in the majors now, or soon, and their two high floor arms could move fast. Sure, you lose a fascinating asset in J. Arauz, but he's so far away and not, as of now, an elite talent, so you live with it. We've seen the skyrocketing cost of pitching, so if a lot of their arms pan out, that's a lot of chips for Klentak to deal from. I like Klentak's aggressiveness here, even if it busts, and I think the Phillies could be a scary looking squad in a couple seasons. The NL East, on the whole (outside of perhaps the Marlins) looks like it could be a nasty division sooner than later, with the Phillies/Braves building strong systems, the Nats strong system of upside talent, and the Mets young talent being up now. _____ Still think Rizzo is trying to pull off something big. I really think if they move a pitcher, they may jump in on Cueto. Just a guess, but a pitcher may be the best way to address their holes (lefty bat, bp help, maybe an OF, maybe a 2nd baseman ... obviously not all), and they can use the spare money on the remaining pitchers.

It's going to be a fun class, even after guys sign, stars dim. I mean, looking through the articles on 2018, a guy like Drew Smyly could be available. At that point, he could be a guy who never found the consistency ... or he could be a young arm ready for a monster contract. Isn't Ross a FA as well at that point? Who knows what he will be then - a guy whose slider usage ate him up, or a still effective TOR arm. I suspect we'll see Adam Jones star start to dim soon, but he may hang on long enough for another solid multi-year deal. Hopefully, though, at that point, we'll have won a World Series, and started the process of signing our youngsters down long term. Even with the potential for impact talent and with a larger payroll, ideally, we'd only visit FA for special talent/special acquisitions (namely ... one could see SP being a monster issue that winter, what with Arrieta's cheap seasons and Lackey's contract coming to an end ... part of the reason why I wouldn't mind adding one more piece now, if possible, so that we can better bridge the gap when said gap comes. Of course, the bigger, better hope is that we've started seeing arms develop and come up).

A Kelly now -Arrieta then comparison seems a bit odd. Kelly had TJ a couple years back and some other physical issues, and the stuff, at last check, seemed to have backed up a bit. Arrieta was more experienced and had peripherals that suggested that some tinkering could bring about positive results. It's possible that, with more time away from TJ, Kelly might regain his former stuff. It's a good gamble for the Braves - heck, hard to classify that trade as a loss for them overall considering Bethancourt simply never figured it out offensively. The Giles trade is why I absolutely hate dealing for pen arms. I guess if you feel like you are that close, it makes some sense, but geesh, that's a lot for Giles. Ken Giles wasn't Ken Giles until he became Ken Giles - Giles command was a mess, and his slider didn't develop, and both things basically only took off until he hit the bigs. Point is, every system has guys floundering about that often could thrive with a move to the pen/with some new instruction. I get why he was costly, and I think he'll be good ... but I still feel like that's too much to give up for Giles, particularly after the Appel/Fisher switch (Fisher, while the positional asset, was riskier and Appel's upside is still plenty solid and he's far closer to helping). Appel also pitched fairly well the 2nd half of last year and looked like a potential mid-rotation arm. I'm not convinced you couldn't have found a late inning pen arm in Velasquez or Appel for 2016 that would have been just fine, if you wanted to go that route. I get why the Astros did it, but boy, for an organization that floundered under Amaro for many years, their summer trades and now have really restocked the system fast.