toonsterwu

It wouldn't surprise me if Darvish's market was coming down, but as good/shrewd as Cashman has been of late, I tend to think that low is a bit wishful thinking on his part. I mean, the thing is, if it drops near that low, you'd likely get a lot of teams in on the bidding. At those numbers, the Twins can easily go past it. I mean, Wei-Yin Chen and Jeff Samardzija got that level of contracts a few years ago ... those deals are made, perhaps not in a snap, but they are made, and Darvish is better, so if it gets near that low, I'd imagine a lot of teams jumping in before it drops any further. I mean, the Nationals are in the market for an arm and are willing to spend, so unless they simply want to kiss Boras' ring ahead of next year, Darvish would be better than Arrieta, and they have that flexibility, albeit only with some creativity. I'm still ambivalent on Darvish. Yes, he'd give us a top of the rotation arm, but I suspect a lot of the prices on the 2nd tier guys will come down as guys try to get deals done, and I'm just wary of dumping the truck on Darvish, moreso on the years. I can live with 5 years, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's angling for some sort of way to get a 6th, if not 7th year. I think I could probably live with some sort of 6th year trigger (I wouldn't give a straight/clear 6th year), a la the Wei Yin Chen contract several years ago, with built in opt outs early in his tenure (basically, a copy of that Chen deal, but a lot more cash). I'm thinking it's going to be something like 6/125, with the contract front-loaded a bit in the first two years (say, he gets 50 mil in the first two), and he has an opt out after the 2nd year, with perhaps a trigger for the 6th year, and maybe even a trigger on a 7th year. At this juncture, we might as well slow-play it and see how things turn out. For all the talk about collusion, and I wouldn't necessarily rule it out, but I tend to think a lot of this is just that sports has largely become a big, gigantic groupthink circle in some respects. At some point, the numbers will get to a point where someone jumps. It wouldn't surprise me if the Cubs were angling for some sort of stealth move as they wait for the FA market to move ...

Okay, color me surprised at so many people thinking it's a crap return for McCutchen. What did people expect for him? I mean, relatively speaking, I think the Gerrit Cole trade was a worse return, and that one was probably passable (although most reviews paint it as a general negative, which I buy). But this? For a guy on one year, coming off a "bounce back season", but still showing all the signs of decline? This seems reasonable - two average prospects with some shot at roles in the majors, but don't look like guys who will be key cornerstones or top players, and more likely, role players/end of 25 man guys, if they stick in the majors. This ... seems reasonable to me.

For one year of McCutchen, that's a pretty decent return. I'm not much for Crick ... I think he could make a decent power arm in time, and perhaps has late inning potential, but I don't buy him as a starter. Reynolds is one of those guys for a rebuilding team, it's fine. He's not great in any areas, but he's a solid OF who can start on a rebuilding club. All in all, for one year of McCutchen, not bad. As for the Giants, this move ... is fine. They give up two average, at best, guys, for a shot to win now. After you make the Longoria trade and take on that salary, you might as well double-down with a move like this if possible, so okay. It's a fine line they are walking - hoping everyone stays healthy, hoping people don't regress, and hoping enough of your young kids develop to supplement things somehow mid-season. It could work for one more year, though.

Ah forgot about that. Rodney probably isn't the best bet to keep the closer's job all year, but it does make Reed's decision a bit more interesting.

Twins have enough room that with a creative contract structure, they can be in the deep end if they want to. I mean, almost all their costliest contracts end in the next year or two - Mauer/Dozier after 18, Castro/Hughes/Santana after 19 (and they could certainly make sure Santana doesn't hit his 2019 option). I don't suspect Darvish ends up going there ... seems an odd market to go to for him, nothing against MInnesota, with no certainty that the Twins will maintain their competitiveness consistently. As for Addison Reed ... yeah, that's a nice looking deal, and it sounds like the Cubs might've been able to compete (Passan noted he wanted to be in the Midwest so he passed up on 3 year deals). At this point, I imagine the Cubs are simply big-game hunting, in some respects, in regards to the pen. Looking at established closers, and otherwise being okay with their current options.

I don't particularly love the Cole deal for the Pirates, but it's not bad. Really comes down to buying Joe Musgrove. If you buy him getting a bit better and hitting the start of his peak, then, really, that alone could make this a good trade. The addition of Colin Moran gives them a guy to slot at 3rd if Josh Harrison is moved, but Moran was a thing once ... I think he's more a 2nd division starter. Then again, Pirates are in the midst of a semi-rebuild. Barring a move back to the rotation, Feliz is probably more setup arm than closer unless he gets his command a bit more tight. Martin might have some fringe shots as a 2nd division starter if all goes well. Actually, the thing I don't like is the timing of the deal. Whenever Darvish signs, that could've increased the Pirates leverage in trade talks. Then again, they probably got a package they liked and this off-season was moving slow, so what the heck.

I would point out that the parts besides the rotation, their hope would be to supplement it through a fairly strong system. They have an abundance of quality OF prospects (obviously, Robles tops the list, and Soto gets talked about ad nauseum now it seems, but one of my favorite sleepers is Daniel johnson). They've spent big on the international market, there's solid positional depth in the IF, a couple catchers, and there's some arms. Actually, if anything, I tend to think their weakness lies in the rotation, system-wise. Anyhow, thing is, they are loaded for now, and have pieces to supplement for the future. The deferrals on Scherzer/Strasburg may give the Lerners enough space to make some moves, but either way, their big goal is to convince Bryce to stay, and by all indications, the Lerners will spend to do that. All that said, with their system, I'd actually explore a trade for a pitcher first (of course, this market is slow as molasses), personally, but it wouldn't surprise me if their working relationship with Boras allowed them to do some "creative" (deferred) deal with Arrieta.

Might be evidence that moving faster isn't always better. I like the Nagy hire for the Bears. I'm not huge on Ryan Pace's moves so far, but I think Nagy is a nice, young offensive mind who should bring in an aggressive, but somewhat "QB friendly" (at least for a young QB) system in for Trubisky. Couple that with the run game in place, and the defense, and ... I like the Nagy move. Better than the Fox move, which I never liked but understood. It's a good gamble for the organization.

Don't sleep on the Nationals. I've said it all off-season, but I expect them to make a splash, and with Wade Davis off the boards, they are probably going to go with the group last year, with Doolittle closing. That means the money they have can be staggered to go after a SP, and with Gio's contract up after next year, it can be creatively staggered if they really wanted to minimize long term impact (basically, front load it if necessary), with raises for other guys on the back end. That said, the more the off-season moves along, the more I tend to think Arrieta might be the fit for the Nationals - knows Dave Martinez, big splash and a good fit as a number 3 starter there, and a make nice move with Scott Boras, which they seem apt to do.

Honestly, at this point, it's just wait out the market. If Cobb is asking 4/70 (honestly, I'm not that averse to that if that was the proposed endgame several months ago, but he'll probably come down now), we might as well just wait. 3/42 was never going to get Cobb, and I hate the idea of 4 with 25 AAV for Arrieta. If he's asking 4/70 now, wouldn't surprise me if Cobb dropped below 4/60, at which point, okay. Anything around that is okay. Trade market is probably going to stall unless the starters fall quick, and at that point, it'll be really late in the process, as slow as this off-season has been.

He's probably at the tail end of his prime years, but with surgery the way it is these days, plus the lost years ... it's sort of a crap shoot. Typically, in the past, early 30's, to the best of my recollection, was the end of the prime years for starting pitchers. You have a good point on Cole holding up the market. I mildly wonder if the better way to phrase the market stagnation has as much to do with cost as it has to do with .... simply waiting on the Yankees. Every agent wants to be able to use the Yankees as an option, and Cobb/Darvish have both been connected (don't recall Arrieta or Lynn attached). It seems like cost will be some sort of factor with them, though, and with their usable chips (namely, Frazier), the trade route still makes the most sense with them. Sorta makes me happy that they landed Chatwood early for reasonable years, despite my concerns on Chatwood.

Good for Davis. I wouldn't want to give him that deal, but I'm also of the opinion that with Wade, 3 years is fine, and he might end up being worth it. Such a slow moving market. Seems like the SP market is waiting for Darvish ... or maybe even waiting on Cobb, since there are some teams that probably won't go in on Darvish anyways. Wouldn't surprise me if the Cobb hold-up has as much to do with years and money as it has to do with some sort of opt-out. His agent has to be angling for some sort of opt-out (I mean, the situation all but calls for it, one of the better arms on the market, slowly working his way back, still in his prime) ... but is it going to be a Wei-Yin Chen type opt out, where the bulk of the money comes later, or will Cobb be able to "double dip"? Here's hoping the Davis movement spurs the pen market, or more specifically, the closer market. Wouldn't surprise me if we got a rash of moves after the 1st.

A bit curious who the Giants are clearing salary space for. ___ As for our rotation, the thing to be said is that this market has moved fairly slowly. I don't think the organization would be that upset if they ended up tossing out fliers for that 5th spot, but I do think they are gunning for something better. Problem is, this market, particularly the trade market, hasn't really developed yet. In some respects, it may be waiting for Darvish to fall. Once Darvish goes, then the trade market may loosen up, as some teams may look at the long term deals necessary for Cobb/Lynn and decided to step back.

I wouldn't read too much into the rhetoric about letting things play out until after 2018. If I recall correctly, there was similar talk about letting Strasburg hit FA before they revisited. The Nationals front office, though, to put it bluntly ... they aren't the Orioles front office. I'd love Harper on the Cubs, and it sure feels like it's going to be Cubs or Nationals. My gut hunch would still lean Nationals, but a lot is probably dependent on how Harper gets along with Dave Martinez. By most accounts, Bryce likes the DC area quite a bit At the end of the day, though, I think the main things that lead me to think he's going to be with the Nationals is a) His talk about wanting to be a one-team guy (granted, money and winning talks in the end), but the Nationals are well setup for the future, as their system is solid right now. and b) the fact that Boras and Ted Lerner have a ridiculously close relationship. IIRC the articles post-Strasburg, they consistently meet up to discuss things, somewhat bypassing Mike Rizzo, although Rizzo still makes the decisions. Boras convinced Lerner to bend on 7 years for Strasburg (which, IIRC, was what the FO had told Lerner what it would probably take as well).

I wonder if he'd be in a Machado trade? A bit unlikely unless the Orioles can clear out Davis/Trumbo/Mancini from their 1st/LF/DH logjam. _______ I find this signing a bit odd. Hoskins can be decent in LF, but Santana at 3 years, at that cost? I get that up and coming teams sometimes have to over-pay to get that first guy in ... but Santana? I mean, it fits a need for a power bat. Doesn't mean it can't work just fine, and it actually gives them some more assets they can deal, with Hoskins going to LF.

I wouldn't say they waited a year too long. I'd say they waited a few months too long. To ask them to trade Machado last winter ... after a 89 win season, a wildcard loss that might've been prevented had Buck gone to Zach Britton ... that's just unrealistic. They were still on the "high" of this window. At the time, the Yankees were still rebuilding, the Rays weren't ... pushing forward. On paper, they had Buck, they had a veteran pen, a good offense. They had Gausman, some signs from Bundy, and Tillman being a passable veteran starter, plus Miley putting some strong peripherals up. If anything, the argument should be that they should've been more aggressive last winter, knowing that this core was coming to a conclusion soon, one way or another, and while it's understandable about holding back on long term deals with SP, if you wanted to give this window one last shot, you needed to go all out. They didn't. Now, they should've considered it at the deadline, I'll grant you that. That said, Machado got off to a slow start (leaving aside the fact that they held some foolish hopes of a 2nd half push that fell apart eventually). At the end of the day, based on how things fell, I think it's fair to say this winter was when they should've dealt Machado. Just don't limit your options when your options are already limited. Grant the window, be open to the Yankees. To be fair, a lot of this may be on Angelos, so Duquette may have some hands tied. Britton/Brach? They should've done that earlier. Buck is great with pen arms and spacing their usage out so they are fresh. If you want to say keep Britton for and hope for a better return, at least move Brach and get something quality mid-season.

If the latest reports are true, the Orioles are morons (refusing to grant a window), and the White Sox may be offering simply 2 from that Cease/Hansen/Fulmer/Dunning crowd, which is a bit more understandable (reports say not offering top prospect, if Nightengale is correct, so Kopech would seem off the table ... this makes a lot more sense ... the White Sox could then flip him for other assets, as some of their 2nd tier starters have upside, but are risky). Man, if the price isn't that high... I'd love to find a way to get into it. Dunno how we find the starters to meet the Orioles needs, though. Still ... that price seems awfully eh right now. Curious what the Cardinals offered (albeit, not formally) to not be the top offer - Hudson/Flaherty?

I have a feeling that Piscotty bounces back and that he'll produce well enough to make people wonder why the Cardinals bothered with this Piscotty/Ozuna swap.

A part of me would hate the Cardinals getting Machado because I tend to think their system is a bit over-rated ... a lot of decent to good guys, but I don't see much that really "jumps". That said, the flip side is, I'd love to see their depth get hit. They'll need their depth in the coming years, particularly if they throw a boatload of cash at Machado. Personally, I think in a year's time, we may be wondering why the Cardinals switched PIscotty for Ozuna, and that's less a knock on Ozuna and more the fact that I wonder if Piscotty bounces back now that he's close to home and near his mom.

So ... anyone that has worked with Jim Hickey, c'mon down! ... In all seriousness, it's a good signing. I don't believe they want to end on this point, but getting 2 guys that could potentially close gives them options, and Cishek has been solid for awhile. With the Orioles inching towards selling off pieces, I wonder if they might look into Brad Brach. I could see the contours of a deal involving Mike Montgomery perhaps make sense for both sides, if the Cubs can't land bigger fish for the pen.

I don’t think you let Tim Anderson’s bum ass get in the way of making a Machado trade/decision, but that’s just me. Anderson strikes me as an obvious piece that would be going back to Baltimore. Cheap, league average production that's locked up forever. He's definitely not moving Moncada off second base for the Sox. Orioles want pitching, though, and it's easy for the White Sox to offer that. I also wonder about Tim Anderson perhaps going to the OF. There's some flexibility there if they do make this move.

More I think about it, more I wonder if Rick Hahn thinks they are closer than people think, the AL Central is a mess, and wants to take a run at Machado and see if they can surprise next year. I mean, a lineup with Machado/Garcia/Abreu/Moncada could be excellent. Still, the rotation would have some question marks, and any questions about the Indians future is about a year or two down the line - they look strong next year. This is just a weird turn of events, IMO. Nightengale had a tweet that said the Orioles were expecting to make the move by the end of the week, so we'll see.

Color me utterly surprised with the White Sox. They seem at least 2-3 years away, if all goes well. Granted, perhaps they feel like they could pop sooner than that, with the AL Central having some upheaval (even the Indians will have contracts to sort out). Maybe they feel like they can convince him to stay, and know they won't get a meeting next year, so might as well bring him in now. Still, feels like the "flip him again" idea makes more sense ... but if they are offering Kopech, are they going to get better in return? Or is this a case of them using their pitching prospects to spin them into positional assets? The Orioles are so locked in on pitching that the White Sox make a lot of sense. They could give up a couple guys and still be fairly loaded. I can't help but think Giolito is akin to Dylan Bundy - guys whose stuff might never be what it once was. Still, a package like Giolito or Kopech/Dunning/? would be as good a return as could be expected, and the White Sox would still have pitching depth. Maybe the Sox toss in Carson Fulmer and give the Orioles a closer to groom.

Wow, that'd be ... stunning. Wonder what the cost would be. With the Rays propensity to target younger guys/upside guys when appropriate, I'm wondering if Delvin Perez or Edmundo Sosa are in play. It's possible that the package is some combination of arms and OF, though, as Tyler O'Neill might make a ton of sense. I think, if they make this move, the biggest thing in all this would be that Chris Archer is probably very much in play. With the rumors of the Nationals and Yankees checking in, along with the Cubs, the Rays should get a nice bidding war going if they wanted to move him.

Really impressed with Eppler''s winter for the Angels so far. They didn't give up much to get Ian Kinsler, keeping their high upside guys. Headley isn't what he was (assuming they get him) ... but he might be a really good fit in Anaheim, offering defense and OBP. Heck, if I'm Scioscia, I go Headley/Kinsler/Trout/Upton/Ohtani (when hitting). At the end of the day, the most important thing is Ohtani panning out as a pitcher. If he does, they look very good. And they do all this without really denting their developing farm.