The space between how excellent Dempster pitched last year and how Jason Marquis usually pitches over a season is pretty gigantic. I agree he almost certainly won't repeat last year, but to just assume he'll plunge all the way down to Marquis' level is incredibly pessimistic. Dempster and Marquis both have a 4.55 career era. Marquis career 198 starts 79 wins,Dempster 195 starts 76 wins.Marquis has averaged 13 wins a year for the last 5. Dempster was a regular starter from 98-03. Only once in that span was his era under 4.50. Dempsters history suggests that if he makes 30 starts,he'll pitch more innings than Marquis. But,Marquis making 30 starts is more likely. So your basis for this argument is wins and ERA? Partially.Last year was a career year for him. It was a contract year and he was able to keep the walks down (until the playoffs). If his walks per inning reverts to his usual standard,most likely his era will rise,win total will drop etc. The playoffs was only one game for him and clearly he was trying to be too perfect and that threw him off his game. I think from the way he pitched and what he said last year he figured out that he has to pound the strike zone and get ahead of hitters early in order to be successful. I don't think it is unreasonable to believe that a guy could figure out as he matures a better approach to pitching and that could make him more effective. Hope so. Marquis never had a year like Dempster did last year...not even close. It seems unlikely Dempster is just going to forget to keep his walks down simply because it's not a contract year. Will he repeat? Probably not. But looking at his year, it's pretty clear he wasn't just lucky or that it was the result of smoke and mirrors.