You've said this before, and it's simply not true. Davenport adjusts for league difficulty and park effects. Feel free to provide examples. That's the problem with your argument. There's over a hundred guys who were rookies last year. You can find examples on both sides. I'm talking across the board. You really think I can't find some examples of where PECOTA was way wrong on a rookie? And I'm not talking about park effects or league difficulty. The league diffculty you're talking about, I believe, is West to Central, AL to NL. Not AAA to MLB. Take Pie for example. If he does another year in AAA, he's likely to hit the line that was quoted earlier. It's not reasonable to expect him to do as well in MLB as he would do if he did another year in AAA. That's not true. They adjust for league (it's called league equivalents, several sites have their own system, PECOTA has one of their own). I don't really care about the rest of the argument. I think PECOTA does a generally solid job of projecting hitters -- including rookies.