Bored, so I thought I'd post a game preview for the Colts-Jets: The key matchups to watch aren't, in my opinion, the matchups everyone expects. The Jets have a strong running attack and I'm sure they'll run for some yards against the Colts. However, I think the Colts run defense will at least perform competently, to the point the Jets won't win the game solely on the ground. The Colts have shored up the run defense with (i) more/stronger/healthier play from Antonio Johnson and (ii) more gap discipline from their linebacks (read: the return of Gary Brackett and the emergence of rookies Kavell Conner and Pat Angerer). Note: It's why I'm not terribly concerned about the health of Clint Session, while he is the most physical and likely most talented Colts 'backer, he is also the least disciplined. The issue the Colts' defense is likely to have is stopping the pass (seriously). If Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis cannot consistently generate pressure, the secondary will be abused even by the likes Mark Sanchez. There are simply too many injuries in the secondary -- even more so with Kelvin Hayden not likely to go -- for the Colts to hold out for any length of time in the backfield. The Colts offensive production will depend on how much they can run the ball. That's not to say they will, or even need to, dominate on the ground. But if they're getting stuffed for negative plays, or no-yard gains, every time they run the ball, they are going to struggle offensively. With no credible running threat, I don't believe they have enough weapons to beat the Jets solely by passing. The Jets secondary isn't great -- especially their safeties -- but they have one great and another very talented corner. If the Jets are able to somewhat neutralize Reggie Wayne (a Pro Bowler because of stat aggregation, but not his best season -- see the rate stats) and, to a lesser extent, Pierre Garcon (the epitome of an unreliable, inconsistent player), it will be hard for Jacob Tamme (who is a solid player, don't get me wrong) and Blair White (not a bad fifth receiver, but still) to beat them over the middle. The Colts must have some rushing attack --no small task against the Jets defense. In sum, I think the Jets will (surprisingly) have a big passing day and limit Manning's ability to win the game through the air. The Colts have also historically struggled significantly in their playoff openers (if they happen to beat the Jets this weekend, I think they'll have a very strong chance of upsetting Pittsburgh). I'm going to the game, I have great seats (twelfth row, lower level), and I wish it wasn't so. But, Jets 24, Colts 20.