Exile on Waveland

It's not baseless, and I don't irrationally hate Soriano. I just don't think he's going to be very good this year, based on a number of factors. I readily admit I could be wrong. I really hope he does great though, even if it means I have to see him do that John Cena thing 40 times this year. Nor is it baseless. Pretending he's anything but an aged, once pretty good slugger who's a terrible defensive outfielder is baseless. That ground has already been covered.

This is a bit off topic, at least vis-a-vis the coaching searches, but I have to admit I'm really intrigued to see how next year plays out for the Illini. They're the one team in the Big Ten that I think is almost completely unpredictible with possible results all over the map. They have a real nice amount of talent on the roster. I could also see them actually being better without the senior class. In fact, depending on NBA early departures, it would not stun me if they won the league. On the other hand, a lot of their talent is a bit unproven or, in some cases, arguably took a step backwards. Also, probably the most talented player (Richmond) is, um, I don't know, crazy? Perhaps with added pressure on Weber, they implode. That also wouldn't really stun me. Who knows. Should be interesting.

I won't comment on the scholarship situation because I have no idea how that's going to work out. It certainly is curious. Regarding the player, IU is still, in my opinion, in desparate need of more big men. If Traylor can play -- and he is being recruited by some really good programs, including Kansas, though this late in the year is "grain of salt" time -- he fills a need for both next year and the future. Even if you're right about the 15 win prognostication (I suspect you are, but the team at least has some potential to win more than that), a 3-star big man is better than no big man at all.

I was just going to say, Weber to Purdue then Illinois can hire Pearl! =D> :P Shaka to Illinois. Sounds perfect. Did anyone think Smart was a good coach before his team unjustly got into the tournament? He's lead VCU to a 5th and 4th place finish in the CAA with Anthony Grant's recruits. I'm with you here. What, exactly, distinguishes him from the dozens of other coaches that made cinderalla runs in the NCAA Tournament then bombed out at a bigger/better school? The answer, I'm sure, will be that those other coaches did not make the Final Four. But is that really dispositive? A couple extra tournament wins isn't a whole lot of information to make a decision on. It's hard for me to say definitively that Smart is a coaching savant because his team is shooting 44% from 3-point range over five tournament games.

I still have the possibility for one Final Four team, as I picked Kentucky. If Kentucky wins, I'll win both pools I entered (both for money). I really, really, really hope I get zero Final Four teams and lose my pools.

Agreed. I have no dog in this fight -- and, honestly, was rooting for the upset because that's fun -- but I thought VCU was allowed to mug the Morris twins under the basket basically the entire game. Also, I'm not sure I've ever seen a travel not called when a player falls to the ground with the ball.

VCU is on fire, but Kansas's guards are laying a huge egg.

Who does he compare to recently, Blair without injury concerns? Id have to think his ceiling isn't too high. That's who always sprang to mind with me. Bill Simmons brought up Glen Davis as a comparable player in a podcast last week also. I'm not saying Sullinger is a future NBA superstar, but he is/was FAR better than Davis was in college. Sullinger put up the same numbers as a freshman as Davis did his last year (junior year) in college. Sullinger is easily a superior collegiate player to Davis.

Crean is in literally zero trouble right now. The way he's recruiting the state, his leash is even longer than it would be (it would still be very long even if he was not having such success on the recruiting trail). He was given a 10-year contract for a reason. Excepting coaches that own a national championship, he may have more job security than any coach in the nation. In fact, the ship actually has been righted (it just isn't going to show up in the win/loss column for a couple years.) He would have to fail with the 2012 recruiting class before he'd feel actual heat from anyone that matters, and that determination can't be made in two years. As for Stevens, I think he'd only leave for a few jobs. He's more than content at Butler. He would be an amazing fit especially, in my opinion, at two: Duke and Indiana. I'm sure Duke will hire some Krzyzewski disciple, however, which may not be for the best, but alas As for Indiana, I'm not sure that job is in the cards for Stevens. I just don't think the timing is likely to work out. If his success had happened a few years ago, for sure.

I finally got a game right that no one else picked, and it's freakin' Kentucky. Argh.

Same for Purdue. They couldn't handle anything that VCU threw at them and matched up poorly based on size and strength. Good thing there aren't many Butler fans around to talk trash about owning Indiana right now. I've been a Butler fan since I was a little kid - I used to go play ball at Hinkle Fieldhouse. I'm a fan of all Indiana college basketball though. And instead of owning Indiana its more like; "Well, we still have Butler." Of course that could change like it did last year when Butler merchandise started covering Indianapolis like I had never seen it before. So all they have to do is make it to the Final 4 year after year and they'll start to close the gap between their fanbase and IU/Purdue. I really want to see the IU job open up in a few years and have Stevens tell them to [expletive] off. ETA: Stevens would say it in a far more dignified and classy manner than I just did. Unfortunately, I seriously doubt you get the satisfaction of either. It's not like Stevens grew up a huge Hoosier fan or anything. I know someone, um, rather close to him and I feel pretty confident he'd leave for IU. That situation isn't likely to arise, though.

Agreed. He's funny, but he's said nothing that I've heard that makes me believe he knows anything about college basketball (or even watches it).

They've changed the weekend schedule around a bit this year (for one, tomorrow's games end much later). However, there has always been one featured game both Saturday and Sunday morning, I believe.

I really debated picking Morehead over Louisville. However, to be honest, I really debated picking Louisville over Kansas. I suppose I should be happy I split the difference.

Yes but now Oliver Prunell is coaching at the one place where his inability to win an NCAA game his entire career won't hurt him. So it only seemed natural that Clemson would win the other night. Clemson may have lost a coach, but they ended up with a huge coaching upgrade. Brownell is excellent. Of course, I'm biased as he went to my high school (though years before me). Brownell is an excellent in game coach, but he is still winning with Purnell's guys. To win at a high major, you have to be able to recruit. It's a hell of a lot more important than being a good coach. For sure. He's going to have prove he can recruit at an ACC level. He seems to be off to a solid start; regardless, I'd take him over Purnell.

Yes but now Oliver Prunell is coaching at the one place where his inability to win an NCAA game his entire career won't hurt him. So it only seemed natural that Clemson would win the other night. Clemson may have lost a coach, but they ended up with a huge coaching upgrade. Brownell is excellent. Of course, I'm biased as he went to my high school (though years before me).

Clemson went to the Sweet Sixteen in 1997, losing in double overtime to Minnesota (who proceeded to go to the Final Four).

Now I'm a little nervous. I don't have any 4 seeds advancing past the first weekend. This is going to be an ugly bracket. How? The 4 seeds are all underseeded (Louisville is the closest), and the 5 seeds are all overseeded (WVU the closest to being correct). Other than that, Utah State is by far the best of the 12 seeds and hasn't won a tournament game since the Truman administration, Clemson is easily the second best 12 seed and has to win a game just to play the toughest 5, and Belmont, the best 13 seed, is a team I'd take against any 5, but not these 4s. EDIT: The most plausible non-4 winning pod I see is Wisconsin-Belmont-KSU-Utah State, and that's because the moronic committee gave Utah State a huge geographical advantage. I very possibly will have two No. 4's in the Final Four. But I might also have one No. 4 out in the first round. I also don't really like any of the No. 5's, except maybe K-State. I think the bottom half of the Southeast has the best potential to go haywire, followed perhaps by the bottom half of the West and maybe Washington over UNC. My preliminary bracket has thirteen top-4 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen.

Name a single good sabermetrics book you've read. Point out anyone here who says that sabermetrics are infallible. Any good sabermetric book worth the paper it's printed on points out the limitations and variables of evaluating players; they're not claimed to be perfect predictive systems in the first place, hence why the key goals of this book, as stated by the authors, are so glaringly wrong and misguided. They don't seem to understand either Moneyball or sabermetrics. What in the information released so far has you convinced that they do? Why are so ready to believe that they are going to provide insight into the limitations of sabermetrics (which, again, the good sabermetric books and sites have already done) based on the faulty approach they're taking in the first place? People who really know sabermetrics (the ones authoring books on the subject, for example) understand the limitations. That's not the target audience. The target audience is the broad swath of more casual fans that have had some exposure to sabermetrics and think they get it, yet will toss out conclusions such as, "well just look at his BABIP, obviously he was unlucky" and think that's sound reasoning. I would vehemently disagree with your assumption of who is the target audience. I think it's quite apparent the target audience is meatheads that have never used a computer in their mom's basement because they hate "nerds" and "geeks" with their "numbers."

That is not an argument against Sabermetrics, it's an argument against an interpretation of sabermetric data. Which you, in fact, used saber-style metrics (e.g., line-drive percentage, flyball/groundball percentage) to debunk this (perhaps? -- I'm not the correct person to determine the qualitative analysis here) flawed, simplistic determination. So, in effect, you are saying you proved saber to be fallible by using saber. I'm not sure, but I think this comprises "meta."

As to the previous conversation of IU potentially grabbing a decommit from a school that fires their coach, the above is a place to look (hopefully -- though these are all long shots).

Belmont and Wofford look like good upset picks to me. I came in thinking Oakland, too, but I doubt they beat Texas (unless Texas completely no-shows). Maybe Morehead over Louisville. I don't understand Florida as a No. 2. I don't really understand VCU and I'm shocked a team can beat no one at all and receive an at-large (UAB -- though I'll admit bias here).

With 10-11 teams from the Big East getting in, and none of them being seeded in the bottom 20 or so, it's a bit of an inevitability. I know it used to be the elite eight, but I thought they still tried to hold out until the sweet sixteen. I believe this will be the first time in the modern era a conference game could happen so soon.

Marquette and Syracuse can play in the second round? That's allowed?

It would be really nice if BJ Young gave it some second thought now and chose Indiana instead but I doubt it. Doesn't Young have academic/discipline issues? I thought IU (and Illinois) backed off him thinking he may not even qualify. Isn't IU over on schollys anyways? IU has an open scholarship for next season. Of course, they're full for two years from now -- and still recruiting the 2012 class -- so adding another for next year would change the paradigm for the future. Transfers are inevitable though.