davell

I think it's pretty realistic to say we have 8 top 150 guys(Rhee would make it 9 if he were healthy this year) but other than Vitters and Castro, it's probably a crapshoot as to who else actually makes the top 100. Cashner SHOULD and probably will, but I don't think he's 100% either. Both Jacksons will have a solid shot and I'd venture to say it's probably an 80% chance one or the other hits the top 100. Carpenter and Burke probably have the least chance of anyone, but both should be there by midseason next year, if they have solid first halves. Lee is the most interesting one to me, I definitely think he could skyrocket next year up these lists(like Castro most likely will have this year) but he MAY have done enough already to make a top 100 list. I'd say he's 50-50 personally. In the end, I think we will wind up with at least 3 and probably 4 that end up in there.

I saw on TCR that Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe said that the only 3 teams that Z would accept a trade to are the Dodgers, White Sox, and Red Sox. No idea how he would know this, or if it's true, but I don't see Z getting dealt this offseason with all the Bradley drama awaiting as it is.

Wagner Mateo had his contract voided by the Cards today.

I just looked up Millwood's contract and while he is owed 1 year and 12 million, he is ALSO owed 15 mill in his signing bonus to be paid out between 2011-2015.

The Bradley situation will wind up being the reason the Cubs don't offer Harden arbitration.

Yep.

Not that I think Milton could survive in New York and not that I think Omar would want anything to do with him(but he's not exactly a great GM, so who knows?) but a Castillo for Bradley deal where we pay some cash back to the Mets MAY BE about as good as we could hope for unfortunately.

There is plenty of blame to go around here. A lot falls on Milton, who has made it damn near impossible to keep him around. But, MORE blame goes to Hendry honestly. Not for doing what he did in suspending him either. But for signing him to begin with. Milton sought him out very early this past offseason and Hendry spent all offseason going after him, leaving Abreu, Dunn, and Ibanez alone in the process. All 3 of which have had much better years and all 3 of who have not had any of the issues Milton has had. Hendry should have known he was playing with fire and whatever research he did before making this signing was obviously a complete failure. You take the best and worst cases of each of these guys and you weigh that against each other. Sure, Abreu has gotten alot worse defensively. Sure, Ibanez and Dunn may have struggled massively in RF at Wrigley. But, none of them had the injury history of Milton either. And other than Dunn supposedly not liking to play baseball (Lol) none of those guys had any instances of questionable character. And you could make the argument that all 3 clearly brought better resumes to the table offensively as well, which is what we were looking for as it was. The downside of Bradley dwarfed the other 3 and here we are now......Smack dab in the middle of his worst downside possible. This is Hendry not doing his due diligence on this and that's why we are in this mess in the first place. More money wasted and a big hole to fill in the middle of our lineup. Sorry, but while Jim has done some solid things here, this is something that could and probably should be the final nail in his coffin as Cubs GM.

You can't go out and say that's why THEY haven't won in 100 years. Nor, can you say that you play harder than anyone else. It's such a slap in the face to the rest oif the team and organization as well. He way overstepped at that point. I hate the fact that he got suspended, because it surely will hurt his already extremely difficult tradeability. But, I can totally understand why Hendry made that call as well.

Nah, I said some weren't all that bad. I only put him on there because he'd be the ideal replacement actually. Boston would have zero interest in Bradley(who almost definitely won't be headed to a major market) but Drew seems like someone who's not untouchable and at least his contract in the same rhealm as Bradley's is. He's by far the best fit of what I listed.

I agree that it's almost impossible to keep him around at this point. It seems like NO ONE is coming to his defense, meaning everyone must think it's time to cut bait here. Which does suck, since we'll be putting ourselves in another hole money-wise, unless Ricketts surprises and increases payroll(which I don't see, if we are truly thinking of not even offering arb to Harden) Anyway, I went on Cot's to look at contracts and see who all has horrible deals out there, that could be used to help move Bradley. Not all of these make sense for us on a one on one trade obviously, but all of these deals could be used in some way, multi-team deals, or whatever. At any rate, alot of these are ugly, but my guess is if we want to deal him and not just eat his contract, one of these will be coming back towards us somehow. These are actual contracts, not including buyouts or possibly some vesting options on some. Gary Matthews Jr. 2-23 Vernon Wells 5-98.5 Eric Byrnes 1-11 Aaron Rowand 3-36 Edgar Renteria 1-9 Carlos Silva 2-23 Bill Hall 1-8.4 Oliver Perez 2-24 Luis Castillo 2-12 Kevin Millwood 1-12 Jose Guillen 1-12 Gil Meche 2-24 Magglio Ordonez 1-18 Jeremy Bonderman 1-12.5 Carlos Guillen 2-26 Dontrelle Willis 1-12 Nate Robertson 1-10 Alex Rios 5-58.7 JD Drew 2-28 Brad Lidge 2-23 Juan Pierre 2-18.5 Eric Chavez 1-12 There's the role call of champions. A couple aren't really all that bad, but the majority are awful, to put it mildly.

Oh, and at some point this offseason, I'm sure we'll hear something about Maggs for Milton. Or possibly even Rowand for Bradley. Don't see either happeing, but I can see both being rumored deals anyway.

I actually see our replacement RFer being the middle of the order bat Lou seems to be looking for, along with the speed guy at the top of the order. Hawpe sounds like a good answer, although I could definitely see us trying to get Chris Young. About Milton though, seriously, what team out there at this point is going to pay any money whatsoever towards Bradley's contract? I don't see anyone, especially now. When he's basically guaranteed to be gone from here under any circumstance. Not to mention the fact of the matter is Milton is a "solid" baseball player. Certainly not a "special" player. Does another team WANT to take a chance on him at this point? He may be too much of a cautionary tale at this point. Teams certainly want to have good "chemistry" whether it matters or not. Knowing that he sought out the Cubs this past offseason because he wanted to be here and no where else, and seeing it end the way it has......He may not even be tradeable WITH us paying all his salary for all we know. Someone still has to want him and with what all has gone on, what if no one does? I think that there is a fairly decent chance we wind up DFA'ing him.

Realistic Cub possibility: We bring up Colvin and he looks great the last 15 games or so of the year. We DFA Bradley, because no one will pay ANYTHING of his contract, nor give us anything for him, because of what's happened here. Colvin goes into next year as our starting RFer. He proceeds to put up a line of .245/.270/.360 for April/May and then we send him down only to use Hoff there for June/July, where he puts up the same line as Colvin. We finish next year with Fukudone in Rf and Johnson in CF fulltime, with the main offseason goal of 2011 as "we need more lefthandedness"

Yes, it is a conspiracy. Every one is out to get the poor guy. No, not what I was saying at all. He's been extremely easy to dislike everywhere he's ever been. Which sucks, because he's good at baseball. Trading him will suck even worse, because there is no way for us to come out ahead in that. That's my main point here. Apparently there is a point where being decent at baseball isn't enough. It just goes to show that if you are a [expletive] enough of a person, your [expletive] can outweigh your baseball skill, unless your last name is Puljos or Bonds. I guess my question becomes this then....... If we trade him and eat alot of salary in the process, how are we a better team?

I guess I'll open up a can of worms here, just to see what people think, so anyway....... Does team chemistry matter? And if so, how much? 1-2 games a year? 3-5 possibly? Maybe more? Maybe none at all? I know that there is not a correct answer for this and my guess is this has been debated here somewhere ad nauseum, but if so, I haven't seen it.

Yes, it is a conspiracy. Every one is out to get the poor guy. No, not what I was saying at all. He's been extremely easy to dislike everywhere he's ever been. Which sucks, because he's good at baseball. Trading him will suck even worse, because there is no way for us to come out ahead in that. That's my main point here.

Bradley is obviously getting the short end of the stick here. He's not having a bad year. But, he's not making things easy on himself either obviously. Which he seems to do everywhere he's ever been. We're MUCH better off keeping him, but he's appearing to be drawing a line in the sand right now. What team would honestly want him? This is the absolute epitomy of selling low. I wish Hendry would come out and say Milton is a key for the Cubs going forward or SOMETHING. Because I don't see how we can deal him and come out ahead. Doing a quick glance, I guess I could see a Mags for Milton swap maybe? Not sure who even eats money in that deal either. And no, I'm not advocating this whatsoever, just my mind is blank as to what can possibly be done to get him out of town. (which is starting to appear like the only way this is going to end)

Damnit. This is frustrating as hell. He's a very useful player and he's not even having a bad year. Yet, he's pissed as hell, it seems like a good majority of fans are pissed as hell at him, and he's looking like he's going to make it damn near impossible to keep him here. Which also means he's going to lower whatever slim trade value he may have had in the process. Seriously, what in the hell are we supposed to be pulling for out of this mess? I don't see a single option that winds up good for us at this point?

I'm thinking that Castro will grow into some power personally. I could see him as a 15-20 homer guy once he finishes filling out. Roberts seems like a decent comp for Lee numbers-wise. Jimmy Rollins, who Meph used, may not be a bad comp for Castro. Of course, these are the high ends and not the lows. But, I know I'm excited about both of them.

This topic is about Jim Hendry. We all know he has some serious flaws and he has a few strengths as well. To me, his strengths are building loyalty to guys who are already Cubs. If he wants to keep someone, he pretty much accomplishes it.(usually with a very fair deal)He doesn't give up too much in trades for the most part either. This may be his best trait actually. He has a very solid reputation throughout baseball circles as well, which has to be considered a positive. Now, for the negatives, most of which I'm going to gloss over quickly. He overpays for large contract type FA. This could be said for almost any GM with a large payroll though. He focuses on one thing over an offseason. Whether it's lefthandedness, speed, a leadoff hitter, better chemistry or whatever. Maybe his worst trait actually. He listens to his managers too much and lets them influence his decisions on player personnel. I put this as a negative, but I could see that some would see it as a positive actually. Not a lot of effort has been put into the farm system. Although, this IS changing at this point, so I think that this is a negative that is turning around at this point. My BIGGEST complaint with him though, may actually be what he does with the "lesser" parts of the team. I think that he wastes a TON of money that is completely unnecessary. Not everything talked about here should be classified as "lesser" either. I'm sure we can all see him trading Bradley this offseason, while eating a HUGE chunk of his contract, opening up another hole for us in the process. I'm sure we will eat Miles' deal too, which is more what this post is actually about anyway. Eating 2.7 mill is bad enough. But, it's needed in that exact case. Especially when you have guys like Scales and Blanco that can do Miles' job for the league minimum. And this is the whole thing here, because THESE type contracts are what makes or breaks a teams ability to make larger, more impactful moves. Because Hendry makes a lot of these mistakes. And he's going to make more of them this offseason. It's just being wasteful with the allocated funds you have. Hendry is most likely going to keep Grabow. My guess is he'll get at a minimum of 2.5 a year, possibly up to 4 per year. This isn't a bad player actually, but right now we already have Marshall and Gorzellany on the team and have Gaub waiting in the wings too. It's just not smart to resign Grabow basically, we can fill his role in house. It appears as if we want Reed Johnson back as well. What's he going to get from us? 2-3 mill most likely? That's my opinion and I'd rather have Fuld, Colvin, or some other league minimum player in this spot than spending a couple mill again on a spot that's just not money well spent. Then, there's Heilman. He's a 3rd year arbitration eligible guy this upcoming offseason. And it appears we're planning on keeping him too, or else we would have let him go to the Giants when they claimed him. Here's another 2/2.5 mill that we could have available, and able to replace in house with one of Stevens, Caridad, Parker, or whoever. Right there, it's probably 7 mill on those 3 guys alone. Possibly enough to keep Harden, or sign his replacement anyway. Or go get Hudson, for that matter. Then, you add in his 2.7 mill blunder to Miles and we're already looking at 10 mill. Add in the inevitable trade of Bradley and the eating of that much more salary. We're looking at up to 20 mill at this point of wasted funds. Most of which can be recovered in house as it is, especially Bradley sticking around instead of taking the loss. Most teams with large payrolls have some bad contracts. But, you can't have them AND still spend stupidly on the back half of your 25 man roster. We can make a few nice moves this offseason if Hendry would cut the fat from those 3 players. It's just not going to happen though. I expect all 3 of them back. Along with Fontenot and Koyie Hill for that matter, who are arbitration eligible and could see a mill apiece. I'd nontender Hill and trade Fontenot as well, just to save that extra mill as well. We've got Marshall, Gorzellany, Theriot, Baker, Marmol, and Guzman all entering arbitration this year as it is for the first time, so saving as much as possible is imperative. Just let Grabow, Heilman, and Reed walk. Don't trade Bradley for pennies on the dollar either. Go ahead and rid yourself of Miles, no one's going to bitch about that one at this point. Follow this plan and you'll have the money to get an impact player that you weren't counting on going after AND our team won't be any worse by not having these 3 (or Hill or Fontenot as well) around. Get smart Jimbo, or it's obviously not going to be much longer of a stay for you in Chicago. You've dug a large hole and short of another huge influx of money, this is your best(and probably only) shot left.

I loved DeRo as a Cub. I certainly think he would have helped us this year with all the injuries we had. Unless he came back at a VERY reasonable salary though, I think our money is better well spent elsewhere. If he'd take 2-6 or 2-8, I think we'd have to do it honestly. He does bring alot to a club. The wrist surgery is scary obviously and I have no clue what it entails, but if it's like DLee's surgery, it's not a red flag in this case. It's unfortunately time for us to steer clear no matter what, unless he would take a hell of a discount even from the modest figures I said earlier. Bottom line is I figure some team will give him a solid contract, maybe 3-15 or 3-18 possibly and that almost definitely won't be us.

What I'd like to do for 2010 would be something like this: C Soto, Hill 1B Lee, Fox 2B Hudson 2-18, Baker SS Theriot, Blanco 3B Ramirez LF Soriano CF Fukudome, Fuld RF Bradley SP Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Bedard 1-8 with options for lots more(both in years and money) Wells Offer arb to Harden and get the picks(someone will sign him for more than a year) BP Marmol, Guzman, Marshall, Gorzelanny, Gaub, 2 of Stevens, Berg, Shark, Parker and Caridad Let Grabow walk, get the picks(a bottom 15 team will sign him and not lose their own 1st) Nontender Heilman and Johnson, DFA Miles and let Gregg walk without offering arb Trade Hoffpauir and Fontenot for whatever you can get, unless they have an option left(unsure?) Make a run at Reyes.....Offer Lilly, Theriot, one of either Carpenter or J Jackson and one of Burke or Colvin and see if they bite...... If they did, move Gorzellany or Marshall to the rotation, and use 3 of the 5 relievers I had mentioned earlier. Go ahead and shop Bradley, but don't trade him unless either (A) someone pays almost his whole salary(we wouldn't get anything in return) or (B) we get something solid in return, meaning a RFer, 2B, or SP that is an upgrade for us. Since both of these situations is doubtful, I'm assuming he's our RFer next year.

The Marlins will be able to trade Uggla for prospects without taking on any salary. They almost definitely won't be an option for Bradley.

You guys see the O's shopping Roberts again? I don't see it personally, as MacPhail seems like he is ready to add a middle of the order hitter. Plus, they have their 3rd baseman of the future in Josh Bell now, so it kind of makes Vitters useless to them and they have their rotation of the future fairly well set as well with Tillman, Matusz, Bergsen, Arrieta, and Guthrie/Hernandez/Berken as their 5th guy. Which makes me wonder if they'd have any true need for Cashner/Carpenter/Jackson either. I'm sure they'd love Castro, but I don't see a fit with them, as I'm sure they would want a lot more than just him and I don't see Hendry wanting to trade him anyway, as he's Theriot's eventual replacement. So, in the end, I don't see them shopping Roberts to begin with, but even if they did, I think we're a bad fit.