davell

The A's got a top 50 prospect in AJ Cole, who's ranking will only go up, the higher he gets in their system. They got a top 100 prospect in Peacock, who's got 2 potential, or shutdown closer. They also got Norris, who was a top 100 guy for the past 2 seasons, but probably falls out this year. Still, low average, but solid OBP, good power, decent glove catcher. And they got Millone, a soft tossing lefty, that's not top 100 or anything, but knows how to pitch and will probably be excellent pitching in their stadium. If that's the Yanks offer, it's basically like us getting Peacock and Norris, with no headliner or other parts.

Since there's been nothing new on this all day, I'll throw out a rumor from PSD. Not from the guy who's money or even from one of the other typical guys who say they have sources. Just a random Cub fan that has some sort of Yankee contact. Says Yanks are offering Betances, Austin Romine, and 2 high ceiling A Ball arms. Will not include EITHER of Montero or Banuelos, much less both. If this info is correct, it makes sense why Bowden listed the Yanks so low on possible fits for Garza.

What would the Rays want from us? Soto or Marmol, I guess?

My honest guess is we'll trade Garza and Byrd. That'll lower our payroll down towards 90 mill. In the end, I think we'll sign Wood back. Let's say he's 3 mill. Let's say we sign Crisp for 2/8. I'll even go as far as to say we frontload it and give him 6 mill this year, to where he's slightly more valuable as a trade chip next year. Signing Soler for 5/25 and frontloading it some as well, give him 10 mill in year 1. We're at 110. As far as IFA goes, there's Garcia Speck, Concepcion, Rivero, Urrutia from Cuba. No idea what any of them will cost, but Garcia Speck supposedly wanted over 10 mill last year at draft time. Helsin Martinez. Yairo Munoz. Manny Gonzalez, Mauricio Silva, and Gialdy Arias are all Latin American guys who will be getting big bonuses before July 2nd. It's very possible we find a way to spend 10 mill there hopefully and get a decent amount of those guys. Also, there's the Pac Rim, where we haven't made a signing yet this offseason. There's a Korean pitcher represented by Boras who's likely to receive a solid bonus. Do all this and we're approaching 120, at least. it leaves enough money to go get Wei Yen Chen, if you like him. Or Paul Maholm, if you want another short term deal. You could also go out and sign a shortterm 1B, like Lee, staying around. By no means am I saying this is what I'd do, just trying to figure out how we could get up to 130, trading off Garza and Byrd. Personally, I hope we'd keep the payroll down, in this case, and average it out over a 5 year period, to where it ups our payroll a solid amount in the future.

Every time we trade someone, we should throw a massive party, where Tom, Theo, Jed, and the gang get to do the Limbo. Bar gets lowered each time payroll drops.

I'm all for trading Byrd and whatever else that makes sense at this point. Maybe we can change our team name to the Chicago Cost Controlleds for a year or two.

If he just said the best landing spots, that doesn't sound like he's reporting anything. Just seems like his opinion on fit. There's no way Boston is offering the second best package or anything like that. They don't have the horses to keep up in this race. I'm not a fan of what they've got to offer us, but it's because they don't have the pitching. If they're offering Middlebrooks/Kalish/Ranaudo, it's possible that's better than what some of these other teams are offering. If they offered us Matt Barnes as a PTBNL, Ranaudo, and one of Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, or Kalish, it'd be a solid package. Maybe Detroit isn't offering up much, other than Turner possibly? Because I certainly like the way they match up with us better than Boston does.

Bowden just tweeted the best landing spots in order for the Cubs as Toronto, Boston, Detroit, Texas, and the Yanks. If the Yanks are that low, I guess it's true Cashman isn't coming off his prospects whatsoever. Maybe Hal truly is going to run things completely differently than George did.

I'm concentrating on it because it was a nonsensical statement by you. "Blowing up in your face" is an overly dramatic way of describing the limited downside to such a move. It's not going to blow up in their face. There's only so many prospects worth spending big on. And there's a crapload of unspent payroll available for 2012. It's not "my way". I'm just pointing out how ridiculous it is to talk about the risk of blowing up in your face. The season is a waste going in, might as well look at every option to acquire more talent in the future. Signing guys you can trade later is one way, and the fact that he's a "closer" and you already have a "closer" shouldn't affect your decision making on the matter. If I'm going to spend money like this and hope for the best, would you at least agree that Kuroda would be a better use of resources?

I think the Coco Crisp rumors are strictly there if we do trade Byrd. I guess we could get a DeRosa type package for him from someone.

I think Soto is here until midseason or so. Just not a market for catchers currently. Maybe Tampa? If you could get Tampa to trade Niemann for Soto and Marmol gets sent to the Angels for Conger, I guess I could see it. But, my guess is Theo wants to keep Soto here for now, evaluate Castillo thoroughly, and see if he's a longterm answer for us. At the same time, letting Soto hopefully build his value some.

What the hell is this chance you are taking? The team sucks. The money is available. You are making up nonsensical worries about nothing. Worst comes to worse, you aren't able to trade him and he leaves at year end. Oh well. That didn't blow up in your face. You sucked before and you sucked after. So [expletive] what? First off, the fear of them somehow being worse because they are on the same team is kind of stupid. Neither guy is elite, but both could be trade bait in July. If one struggles, you trade the one that is doing well. If they both struggle, so what, you were already throwing away 2012 and are only out money. The whole point is to acquire assets that can help in the future. It's not about constructing an ideal roster in 2012. They've already given up on that notion. If you aren't acquiring guys who can help you the most in 2012, acquire guys you can trade later. Way to concentrate on one sentence. Read the rest of what I said. You think it's a better idea to spend money on a closer, where the objective is to trade him for prospects anyway, than to spend the same money on prospects to begin with. Smart. My way at least ensures you know what you're spending your money on. Your way is a total flyer, that's hoping for both solid pitching on our end and a market to develop among contenders that is much better than it has been for closers. It's far from "nonsensical" as you put it. And there's plenty of IFA out there currently to where you can spend a ton of cash on, even if Cespedes is NOT involved.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Why take a chance like that? If you want Madson, to try and trade him, trade Marmol now. It IS a risk to try and run 2 closers out there, especially on a team that probably won't be winning all that many games to begin with. Plus, you'd have to overpay to get Madson here, in all likelihood. Not to mention the fact that look at what trades have brought teams dealing away closers so far this year: 5 years of cost control of Santos brought back one solid B prospect. Bailey, also cheap as hell, just brought back an extremely "meh" package as well. Which tells me this: Marmol's current trade value isn't all that special at the moment, so why deal him now? And adding another closer as well, banking on more than one team needing one at the deadline, hoping both your guys pitch well, and expect to get a solid return when closers aren't bringing solid returns, just seems like a bad idea to me. Assuming Madson costs over 10 mill, leaving him being owed half of that by the time he's dealt and only receiving a solid B prospect at best most likely, wouldn't we just be better off spending this money towards IFA's to begin with? I sure think so.

The Angels and Reds are both still looking for a closer as far as contenders go. So is Tampa, but they probably couldn't afford Madson. The White Sox and Orioles are looking as well. Getting Madson to take a one year gig here would result in us severely overpaying.

Yo-yoing proven closers into a committee has a pretty solid chance of blowing up in your face, I would think. It's a risk that just doesn't need to happen. You do this and EITHER of them struggles, you're in the same situation you were in before you did this, just with the added salary involved now. How exactly would it blow up in your face? This isn't an ideal way to build a baseball team in 2012 but they already threw away the notion of building an ideal club in 2012. This isn't about 2012, this is about that thing everybody seems to be all giddy about, building the organization from the ground up. You have the money to spend and aren't spending it on useful parts, might as well spend it on something tradeable. I just explained how it'd blow up: One of them struggles in this type of environment. Trade value is lost. You're right back where you started. One closer you can deal. Except now you have to pay another one as well.

Yo-yoing proven closers into a committee has a pretty solid chance of blowing up in your face, I would think. It's a risk that just doesn't need to happen. You do this and EITHER of them struggles, you're in the same situation you were in before you did this, just with the added salary involved now.

I hate to even bring this up, but my honest guess at how our 1B issue plays out this year is this: We trade Cashner to San Diego for Rizzo. We put him in Iowa for half the year and give LaHair the job for half a season to try and build some trade value in him.

With TJS, Whitenack MAY get back on a mound towards the end of 2012, as far as pitching in games go. Then, 2013 could be watching him get back to where he was at. It's a shame he was hurt during his breakout year, but there's no guarantee he ever regains his status either. And even then, most analysts were pegging him as a future 3, at best. Wells and Maples are our 2 best arms deep down in the system, Wells looks like a future innings eater, sinkerballer. Most say he has 3 upside as well, but I certainly can see an argument to where he can be more. Maples? Who knows? If his change develops and his command comes around, it's conceivably he's a possible ace, I guess. But he's a project that's going to take a lot of time and he could flame out in High A Ball. Hitting though, you've got Vogelbach, Golden, Candelario, Hernandez, Amaya, Dunston Jr, and even our 3 big bonus Latin American signees were all hitters. I just feel like we're in much better shape there than we'll be in pitching, especially in the next couple of years when some of these guys develop.

I think we need pitching far more than hitting myself. We have Brett, Szczur, and Baez as possible impact guys, with only McNutt there on the pitching side. Even the majority of the high upside guys at the lower levels are hitters. Plus, Soler is out there for us to just buy. And he's a top 20 prospect by most accounts. Sign him, trade Garza for a pitching heavy package and it kind of evens things out, plus puts our system in a much, much better light.

Has there been any indication on the players being offered by the Yankees? I don't know whether there's been anything beyond educated speculation, but Montero's name has been floated several times. IMO, that alone makes their package preferable. Montero's name has been floated by us. There's nothing nationally saying Montero is part of the talks.

I think he's better and he's actually cheaper too. But I'd have a hard time parting with what it's going to take to get him, especially since it's not going to be as easy to overspend and replenish your system as before. Is he worth giving up 2 or 3 future starters for, when you can go sign a guy who's probably a legit 3 anyway? I don't know, but I sure as hell hope another team does, and the quicker the better.

I hope that Garza's moved in the next couple of days personally. Kuroda, Oswalt, and Jackson are all FA and cost nothing more than money. If the asking price is too high, these teams could easily just go buy a guy. Garza is damn good, but I hate to say it, I don't think I'd give up a TON for him, with those guys all available for cash. Granted, you've got him for 2 years and it's certainly possible he could extended to where he's around for his entire prime at a cost effective rate. I think Theo's played this perfectly. He's the best guy currently out there and he's got 3 AL East teams all bidding on a guy with a proven track record in the same division. We may wind up with a much better haul than what we gave up for him. I guess we'll see what happens, but if some of these teams start signing Kuroda and Oswalt, our bargaining position starts to go down. So I want him moved as quick as possible at this stage.

I don't know of any red flags concerning his delivery or anything and Detroit has done a pretty solid job of limiting his innings from what I can tell.

There's no names that have really been attached to the Yanks, so who knows? If Montero is being talked about, he's the top guy. Turner seems to be though. That said, Toronto has guys who have the abillity to be thought of as highly as, or even higher than Turner is, they're just younger.

For what it's worth, Bowden said we had asked Detroit for both Turner and Castellanos, plus more and Detroit had balked. My guess is we're waiting on one of these teams to cave in and add one more piece than they're offering. I've got it in the back of my head, by the way, that whatever type of package we're going after, it's likely to only include one guy that's currently on that team's 40 man roster, because we're so tight already when it comes to that. In Boston's case, Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, and Kalish are 40 man guys. For the Yanks, Betances, Montero, and Romine are. And for Toronto, Alvarez, Drabek, Arencibia, Rasmus, and Snider are.