sneakypower
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Everything posted by sneakypower
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they slapped an 8 on Baez's power tool, and perhaps more interestingly, a 6 on his glove: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22664#tools
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yeah, that makes no sense; Ripken never had a 100 K season
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seeing Castro's #1 comp being "Rennie Stennett" was a sucker-punch to the gut
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Who is the Cubs #10 Prospect?
sneakypower replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Wells had a 3.54 ERA / 1.31 WHIP up to this point in his development, Hendricks is sitting at 2.42 / 1.04 right now maybe their stuff was comparable, though that's impossible for us to judge- but their production hasn't been remotely similar -
Who is the Cubs #10 Prospect?
sneakypower replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
especially considering the arguments for Olt are "maybe he'll be right, and hit .220 for us! there's some value in that" while true, we know Hendricks is already right, and he'll probably have like a 4 ERA; there's value in that -
his podcast is really good- i like him fine, aside from all that #want #rig stupidity
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the calculations are publicly known http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/
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Is that the same, if calculated at both SS and 3B? I hate saying this, but I have no idea if positions are weighted differently. Although I think they are, since 1B usually seems to produce low WAR numbers. Although I guess THAT could be because it's just a better offensive position and it's harder to put up truly differentiating numbers from there. 1B seem to get lower numbers, compared to say CFs and SSs, because there's usually a pretty sizable gap in baserunning performance; an extreme example: there was a 2-win gap in Paul Konerko's and Jacoby Ellsbury's baserunning last year to answer the question, WAR considers a +5 fielding 3B as basically equal in value to an average (+0) SS
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Szymborski had some good teases about it: Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski Jan 25 Also, ZiPS loves Arismendy Alcantara. Enough that if I wonder if him or his agent hired an elite team of hackers to change ZiPS. Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski Jan 25 If you graphed Brett Jackson's year-by-year projections, it would make a wicked sweet waterslide or downhill ski course. (his dad [i assume] replied) Peter H Jackson @phjackson5 Jan 25 @DSzymborski back to college swing yesterday at Berkeley - maybe the slide bounces... pic.twitter.com/It6f3mESuL Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski Jan 25 I suspect people will like the Javier Baez project. At least, Cubs fans.
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I just keep trying to imagine in my head how much WAR you get in the modern, low-offense MLB with a plus-defensive 3b (or average defensive SS) who hits .300 with 40 HRs and average walks. I'm guesstimating it at roughly a billion. 700 PA worth of his '13 stats (.341 OBP, .578 SLG) with average SS D is good for about an even 7 WAR
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wasn't that the game Stauskas sprained his ankle, too? the season's been a kind of weird chemistry experiment after losing 2 first rounders at G, and then McGary, but Beilein's just killing it overall
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eat [expletive], Sparty (and B1G refs)
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2014 Draft Discussion
sneakypower replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
still kinda wish we had done that -
you're obviously trying to be an obnoxious puke as per usual, but within your sarcasm is mostly an actual truism collectively, over the last 15 years*, the Cubs' best home-grown hitter has been Geo Soto, with a total 11.2 career WAR; for comparison's sake, Nyjer Morgan/Tony Graffanino/Frank Catalanatto have higher career WARs Ryan Theriot is 3rd(!) on that list, and Carlos Zambrano's hitting would place 5th; it's probably impossible to overstate how comprehensively inept our player development has been on the offensive side for the better part of this century, if you're making any type of honest attempt to be objective *picked at random- a nice, even round number
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I think that actually makes it more likely they hit the market, since they don't have a relationship with the new team, and more importantly, their relative value gets a bump because they don't have a draft pick attached. Has there been a deadline deal with a good SP in the new CBA that re-upped with that team? Garza, Dempster, and Greinke didn't, anyone else? Anibal?
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62 points and 0 assists, lol i wonder if that stat line says more about Melo, or the 13-14 NY Knicks
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one guy iso'd 300 last year: Chris Davis take away some HRs and like 40% of the walks from Pedro Alvarez's 2012 campaign and you can see a realistic Baez outcome being well below average and tt could be right though, i could entertain an argument for the order i chose being reversed; they're all four still mostly pretty close in terms of predictability
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order of likelihood of being acceptable MLB starter: Almora, Bryant, Soler, Baez
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Branden Dawson broke his hand today... Joe Rexrode @joerexrode Dawson says he was watching TV clips this morning with the team and got frustrated, slammed hand against table, suffering injury. he'll be out 4-5 weeks
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Offseason Rumors
sneakypower replied to Clem Fandango's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Ubaldo totaled 3 fWAR in the 2nd half alone, which led MLB we didn't even have a 3 fWAR pitcher for the whole season -
he was just the main piece in your Felix Hernandez trade (you dropped Eddie Butler), and had 10 starts since (2.27 ERA and 8 of which he went 7+ IP), so we can be forgiven for being able to make no sense of your valuations unless you expect Jake Odorizzi to be a Cy Young Candidate, and/or Cespedes to completely hulk out i guess
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we did that to Wisconsin too...lulling them into a false sense of hope!
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man, i love Beilein
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Cling gets my 3rd round amateur and we swap draft picks - Clint gets my 6th rounder and I get his 8th rounder and...?
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Kemp? yeah, you just have to ask SSR, who knows what every team bid
