USSoccer

Not to jump the gun on the CF topic, but Corey isn't cheap anymore. He's in his Arb. years. It's not as if he's making a Murton like salary anymore.

The problem with selling the farm for Abreu is that we don't have much of a farm system left as far as top talent goes, and Philly will want either ML talent or top minor league talent. We don't have much of either, so I'd rather just give up money to sign Giles. Murton in left and Giles in right is good enough and lower cost, allowing us to bring in a FA P like Millwood (which Roast will let us discuss later)

Giles should be option A, as it would protect the few system assets we still have.

We signed Alou at a similar age, but the difference is that Giles has always been pretty healthy, and has put up really good numbers consistently. There's no sign of him slowing down.

Tim, Won't the problem with dealing for Abreu be the same as dealing for Manny Ramirez? Wouldn't Philly want more ML talent than that? Also, if you deal Williams and Murton, aren't you straining you budget ahead of when Zambrano and Prior enter arbitration?

Wow. You'd pay him more thatn Aramis? How would you structure the deal? I'd give him a four million signing bonus and then have a deal that pays him 9 million in 06 and 07 and 10 million in 08 and 09. Why not the $10m the first 2 years of the deal, and the lesser amount when he's more likely to regress due to age? And BTW, I'd probably do that deal, too, but I'd also be prepared for ARam to opt out and renegotiate his deal after 2006.

Wow. You'd pay him more thatn Aramis? How would you structure the deal?

I agree. He claimed it was because you can get more value for position players in the offseason, but this past trading deadline you could have had a haul for Dunn, Pena or to a lesser extent, Kearns.

If he's a NRI I don't see him outperforming Wood, Prior, Z, Maddux or Williams to get the job. Rueter would likely be looked at as a long reliever or AAA filler. Besides, it could be some beat writer making a conecting between Rueter and Dusty, and thus throwing this story out there.

Newspapers have been saying that for a very long time, so I take it with a pillar of salt, and I don't think either Pena or Kearns solves our OF issues. We need an established, proven OBP/SLG machine. Giles fits that. Kearns or Pena would only make sense if we were entering a window of opportunity. Right now, we're smack in the middle of it, and Giles is the kind of difference maker that this offense really, really needs. We don't have the 1 or 2 years necessary to see if Pena or Kearns turn into offensive forces. As Tim says and I shamelessly coattail, there's no one player that would have as much impact as Brian Giles would. Pena and Kearns are nice players, but neither are offensively comparative to Giles.

What talent? I'm sorry, but our minor league system is lucky if it's in the top 10 of all ML. We have 1 blue chip position prospect even close to ML ready, and the rest of our decent position prospects are either high-celing guys in A ball, or guys who have only had one year of success. We don't even have all that much great pitching right now. Nolasco doesn't project to be a top starter, and Pinto has control issues. Hill isn't a blue chipper, but could be a good 4th or 5th starter. Boston, if they trade Manny at all isn't going to want our marginal prospects, and we're not going to trade Pie. So what if Theo wants payroll flexibility?He's not in Oakland with $50 million dollars to play with. The whole "Beane Protoge" thing simply extends to the philosiphy he uses when constructing a team, but Epstein has $150m to work with. He's want that felxibility to spend it one someone and the FA class this winter is thin. IF they trade Manny, they will want a major leaguer who is an impact player. Can you imagine the Boston press if they traded Manny to us for prospects? They'd be all over it. And Manny in LF is one thing-Manny in RF is an entirely different beast. Giles is the logical choice, hands down, and we can outbid any team for him if necessary.

Me too. It fits pretty nicely with what's basically our window of opportunity.

3/$36m with a club option for a 4th year gets it done.

Manny in right would be disasterous for our OF defense, and again, we don't have the players necessary to pull that kind of trade off. If Boston bothers to trade him, which I doubt, they will want ML impact talent. Boston is not some small market team. They are going to want a player like Aramis, or Lee. Do you think switching ARam or Lee for Ramirez and then dumping Manny in RF makes our team better? At best it's a wash. At best. If Manny goes somewhere, it'll be the Mets. But I'd bet my life savings Boston keeps him unless they wet the bed in October. Giles is the better option. Hands down. LH, great OBP, great power, and is a FA, meaning we don't have to get rid of the precious few top prospects we have to get him.

Right field? Brian Giles. Brian Giles. Brian Giles. Brian Giles. Brian F. Giles.

Which I suppose, begs the question: Is Williamson's option a foregone conclusion to be picked up for 2006?

Would it? He's had 2 Tommy John ops, and hasn't been very effective this season. Maybe he came back too early, but I don't think it would be a dumb move to decline it, depending on how you put together the pen. $2m might not seem like a huge number, but if it means a better, more competitive offer to Giles, then I'd decline it. Yeah right, so we are going to overpay for Giles? With a 105mil payroll 2mil shouldn't matter if used wisely, especially considering when healthy Williamson is a damn good RP. When healthy is the key phrase there. He hasn't been healthy in a couple years. $2m on it's own is only about 2% of the Cubs budget, give or take. But last year you saw Perez, Macias and Blanco get overpaid a bit. So it's more of a question of making sure you don't get nickle and dimed out of making a better offer to a more important player. Look at it this way: if Hendry keeps his m.o. from the past 2 years he'll bring back one of Perez/Macias, or some other bench stiff which will waste about $1-2m, and he'll overpay someone else for the bench and someone else for the pen by a million each. That's just one of the things he does-he overpays for his reserves, which is maddening to me on a couple levels. So, now if you pick up Williamson's option, you have now $5-6m tied up where maybe you didn't have to. That *could* make the difference between the Cubs offering $9m or $12m for Giles. I'd rather take the chance that we can find another relivever to fit in the middle of the pen than risk not being able to bid against the other big market teams for the best player on the market this winter, and arguably the 1 player who could do more for this team than any other player. What I'm saying is that you have to allocate your resources wisely, and Williamson's 2% of the budget might be an area you could live without, especially given his health issues in the past and ineffectiveness this season

Hopefully that proactive approach involves signing BJ Ryan. I don't think there's as much of a need for BJ Ryan now that Dempster has been signed, presumably to close. BJ isn't going to come here to set up games, and even if he did he's not going to be cheap. Having said that, if BJ wanted to come here for about the same money as Dempster got specifically to set up, then yeah, sure, awesome. But I see a Boston or NYM paying his a premium to close. I would be fine with having him close and Demp pitch in the 8th. Me too, in theory, but Hendry and Baker are loyal guys, and Dempster has done nothing to lose his closer's spot. I have to say, I was dead set against having him close. I thought his walk rates were too high and he'd be really ineffective and inconsistent, but he's been really, really good in the 9th. Why mess with that?

Manny and Dunn would cost more top prospects than the Cubs could possibly offer, unless you threw Pinto, Nolasco and Dopirak at the Reds, and that might not even be enough. Boston is going to want a ML impact player if they even bother to move Manny (I think the whole thing is a media device in NE, and Manny's staying put) and I don't think anyone here wants to give up one of our 2 ML impact players for Manny. I don't think we can outgun LA for Dunn, so Murton is the best choice in terms of economics and the overall structure of the club. You don't have to gut the farm to get him like you would with Dunn, you don't have to trade Lee or Ramirez to get Manny, to say nothing about Manny's contract. Murton makes the minimum, has great patience, good speed, hits to all fields and could hit 15-25 HR's in a full year. We need to start developing position players in house, because Z and Prior are no longer "cheap". Murton is the best option for LF.

You have: Dempster (CL) Ohman (LOOGY) Wuertz (6th-7th) Novoa (7th-8th) You also have Williamson's option, as well as a bunch of Welley-type guys you could plus in. I'd bet that Hendry tries to get an established setup guy this offseason, and then fills the other spot or 2 in house.

Hopefully that proactive approach involves signing BJ Ryan. I don't think there's as much of a need for BJ Ryan now that Dempster has been signed, presumably to close. BJ isn't going to come here to set up games, and even if he did he's not going to be cheap. Having said that, if BJ wanted to come here for about the same money as Dempster got specifically to set up, then yeah, sure, awesome. But I see a Boston or NYM paying his a premium to close.

Would it? He's had 2 Tommy John ops, and hasn't been very effective this season. Maybe he came back too early, but I don't think it would be a dumb move to decline it, depending on how you put together the pen. $2m might not seem like a huge number, but if it means a better, more competitive offer to Giles, then I'd decline it.

Well, the last 2 pen guys we signed for 3 years were Remlinger, who was used incorrectly and then finally showed his age in the 3rd year, and Hawkins, who just wilted in the spotlight. I don't think Dempster will wilt, as he's been closing all season, and he's still a young guy comparatively, so there's not too much to worry about there. Besides, by the time the 3rd year comes around the next wave of arms should be coming through, so we might have a replacement in place this time.

Hopefully this signals a change in the way Hendry operated compared to last season. He left ARam's extension until Opening Day last year instead of getting it done and over with early in the offseason; hopefully this signals a proactive and aggressive winter for Hendry and the Cubs.

So $5m per. That seems okay.