USSoccer

If nothing else, what Hendry decides to do with his bench this offseason will be interesting. You have, in Cedeno and Fontenot/Theriot. two guys who make close to the league minimun who could at worst equal the productin we get out of Neifi and Macias. Will Hendry decide to trust the farm system he built, or bring back Neifi, Macias or both?

Somewhere on the site is the full study I did back in 2003 that got quoted in Will Carroll's book on pitcher usage. Wood was pretty bad in starts following "high stress" outings. I remember that, and I thought it was dead on. For the life of me I don't know why the Cubs would allow their 3 cornerstone pitchers to so consistently throw so many pitches, especially early in the season. It's not like this data is hard to come by. I'd be curious to know how Prior and Zambrano perform after high pitch outings. IIRC Z threw 136 against the Phillies in May, and then left the next game after 3.1 innings. BTW, Prior has somehow thrown 2730 picthes in a year where he missed a month and a half. Z has thrown 3448 pitches this season. God help Baker and Hendry if Z goes down.

BTW, here's the line from the May 10th game: DATE OPP RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF GSc DEC REL ERA May. 10 STL W 3-2 7.0 4 1 1 1 3 8 7 6 141 29 70 - - 2.77 Also, Wood was hurt in 1998 for 1 month, missed 99 and part of 2000/2001, but pitched all of 2002 and 2003. So he hasn't been hurt "every" year he's been a pitcher. Second, if you look at his game logs, you'll see how his effectiveness tanks after too many high PC games in a row. here's the link for you: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/players/gamelog?statsId=5982&year=2003

FYI, pal, Wood in 2003 had 12 games where he was above 120 pitches. One of those was a 130 pitch outing and one was a 141 pitch outing against St Louis on May 10th. 141 pitches in May! He threw 3545 pitches in total in 2003. In 2004, he was hurt half the year (perhaps because everyone from his HS coach to Riggs to Baylor to Baker decided to let him throw as many pitches as necessary), but still managed to rack up 2222 pitches in a shortened season, including 5 over 120. But yeah, quasi stats...

The problem with using Wood in your argument is that many in the Chicago media see Wood as "soft" and stupid for not altering his mechanics. They see/hear Steve Stone torch Wood for throwing across his body, and assume that Wood's stubbornness, and not foolish overuse going back to Kerry's high school days, are the problem.

In the last 4 years no NL qualifying shortstop has had an OPS over 816 except for Renterias break out year. Just to put an 800 OPS in perspective. If Nomar plays 125-135 games at SS, and puts up .295/.340, that not only is a giant inprovement over our SS this year, but it also allows Cedeno to play at least 25-30 games at SS alone, and allows him to ease into what should be a starting role in 2007. That said, Nomar has to agree to a reduced salary for us to want to bring him back. He is a high risk/high reward player now. We need to treat him as such, and if he legitamitly likes Chicago and the organization, he'll be accomodating.

you seem set on nomar accepting no less than 5+ incentives, is it that hard to think the base might be less? im not doubting nomar might use his recent performance as terms for negotiation but just a thought. I think nomar is a sign here as well, a full year of him is just about as good if not better as every other shortstop in the league offensively. But you have to have someone with substantial to terrific defense opposite him. Walker and Nomar can both play LF if neccessary, leaving the option to still sign Furcal if need be. One day you could have Nomar at 2nd, Furcal at Short, and Walker in LF, and then shift walker to to 2nd, and put murton or nomar at LF. Could lead to a more powerful bench and having the LF situation taken care of as well. Thoughts? You're not going to have a happy Nomar and Walker, that's for sure. Hopefully the mythical team chemistry really is overrated. I'd love to go that route, but the egos involved might make that more trouble than it's worth. Nomar has never played LF to my knowledge, and considering his issues the last 2 years have been leg injuries, I don't think he's the best candidate to move to LF. Walker played like 2 innings of LF in 2004, and looked like he was baffled by the flight of the ball off the bat. We have a perfectly good, cheap LF option who has patience, speed, can hit the ball to all fields and does have enough power. We can debate this when we get to LF, but dumping 2 infielders in LF isn't going to solve our issues.

What Tim said, but provided that Neifi Perez is not on the team in 2006. It does us no good if Nomar gets hurt to have Cedeno and Perez on the team. Guess who will get the starts, and most likely hit higher in the order than he should. Since Baker will be here barring a miracle, Hendry needs to do the responsible things and deny Baker the opportunity to jack up the team should Nomar get jinxed again. Offer Nomar 3.5 plus incentives based on plate appearances and such. Cedeno gets to be the Neifi of the 2006 Cubs, filling in at SS, 2B and 3B when needed. Perez needs to be let go. Don't offer him anything. Don't offer him arby, don't offer him a bench slot, don't let him be a NRI to ST. I'll even help him back his bags when the Nationals sign him.

I think most if not all who were talking about Howry were talking about getting him in addition to keeping Dempster. I know I'm not extremely comfortable with any of our current setup/fireman options. At least 1 major upgrade is needed in the pen. I think Ohman, Novoa and Wuertz are good bullpen options, but they shouldn't be your 1-2-3 guys to get to the closer. Get an 8th inning guy or an established closer (moving Dempster to the 8th), and the pen becomes much better. Get 2 arms and the pen can be a strength with Ohman, Novoa, and Wuertz in less pressure filled situations. Agreed, although I think Novoa could become a good 7th inning setup guy. Wuertz would seem to me to be best used in middle relief.

I think that's the best course of action, because it allows Hendry felxibility. He can deal Walker and get value, or keep him and have production. Personally, if you have Hairston, Walker and Cedeno under contract and on the 25 man, you have the chance of pushing one of the bench guys (Perez or Macias) off, which improves the team right there. (is that Off Topic?)

I am no Juan Pierre fan by any means, but I'd agree with you. At this point if Corey gives us anything beyond a trading chip in 2006 and beyond we're lucky. Corey may need a break from baseball, and may end up being a productive big leaguer, but it's hard for me to justify weighing his 1/2 season that was good more than the other 1500 AB's in the other 3 ML seasons.

I would like to see the Cubs pick up Walker's option and trade him to the AL for bullpen help, and keep Hairston and Cedeno at 2B. Cedeno, in my mind's eye, splits time between 2B and SS with whomever is our SS next year. I like Hairston's speed, defense, and ability for lead off in a pinch. He can back up CF and LF, so I have no problem with him being the provisional everyday 2B. Walker, to me, has mroe value in a trade than he would with the Cubs, despite his good offensive numbers. I think Hairston/Cedeno at 2B gives us more flexibility than Walker/Backup would.

It would be pretty Cub-Like to get the guy 2 years after it would have made sense to do so...

Are you sure about that? I was almost positive that he signed a 2 year deal, or at least had a player option. He did sign a 2-yr deal with the Yankees for 2004-5 and then was traded to the Phillies. Ahhhhhh...then that's good. We can just pay him, and not worry about giving up players.

Are you sure about that? I was almost positive that he signed a 2 year deal, or at least had a player option.

I think Nomar owes it to the Cubs to take that deal. Think he'll see it that way? I don't think there's any way Nomar accepts a deal with only 2.5 guaranteed. I'm thinking five million will be the minimum base with incentives. Then we can waive goodbye, and not look back. I wouldn't pay him nearly that much.

That would make sense, too, but I don't think Baker and to a lesser extent Rothschild have the sort of control to exercise that strict PC. Rothschild might, but I'm not sure how much Baker listens to him anymore. It's all hypothetical anyway since the guys won't be shut down. I'm just saying what I would do. Understood. Although in Prior's case they do have more justification to shut him down. 90 pitches for him right now might only be 4 innings. Hence why I would stress to them that they should become more efficient if they want to stay out there for 6 or 7 innings. I think it would be an ideal time to have them learn something of that lesson. Agreed. Do you think, though, that that might be a better lesson taught by whoever ends up being our new pitching coach in ST?

That would make sense, too, but I don't think Baker and to a lesser extent Rothschild have the sort of control to exercise that strict PC. Rothschild might, but I'm not sure how much Baker listens to him anymore. It's all hypothetical anyway since the guys won't be shut down. I'm just saying what I would do. Understood. Although in Prior's case they do have more justification to shut him down. 90 pitches for him right now might only be 4 innings.

That would make sense, too, but I don't think Baker and to a lesser extent Rothschild have the sort of control to exercise that strict PC. Rothschild might, but I'm not sure how much Baker listens to him anymore.

Which of course begs the question, why hasn't he been shut down for at least the last month. That's a great question. I would go one step further and shut Z down as well.

I think, barring a trade for a LF, Baker should pencil in Murton in the #2 spot next year. He can hit to the opposite field, is fairly sound fundementally, is fast, has a bit of power, and gets on base. With any sort of OBP from the top of the order, Lee and ARam would be that much more effective. #1- #2-Murton #3-Lee #4-Ramirez #5- #6-Barrett #7-Cedeno #8- So basically, if I'm the GM I have openings at CF, RF and SS. I trade Walker to fill a bullpen slot, and upgrade my defense up the middle. Bench: Hairston Blanco open open open open Bullpen C-Dempster SU-Novoa SU-open Middle-open LOOGY-Ohman Long-Wuertz Rotation: Zambrano Prior Wood Williams Maddux In my world, I trade Walker for JC Romero. That fills one BP slot. I explore a trade for Kenny Lofton, rationalizing that Pie is a year away and Lofton is still productive at 39. I offer Nomar about $2.5m with incentives to play SS. If he takes it, great. If not, I chase Furcal. I chase Giles and see if he'll take Alou's old deal. I think that's a decent starting point, but we'll see how Hendry plays it. If he waits for deals to come to him like he did last offseason, we're in deep trouble. Hendry needs to aggressively correct the team this offseason, and needs to be bold, and daring.

He doesn't seem to be varying his speeds along with his location which is partly why he's had high PC, and partly (IMO) why he's given up so many XBH. It's not enough to mix up location when your fastball is consistently sitting at the same speed, and his curve hasn't been as snappy as it has been. His pitches are too easy to foul off, and then he;ll make a mistake in location after 8-10 pitches to a guy in a given AB. If he threw his changeup more, I think you'd see a much more effective pitcher. As Derwood said, though, Post-Hawpe has to be taken into consideration. He did break his elbow, and that has to effect his stuff somehow. The winter should do him good, and come spring 2006 he should be back to normal.

Unless it ended with Baker being fined his 2005 salary for complete ineptitude, and Perez being fined $100 for every walk below the league average he didn't take, I can't think of a more unproductive meeting. :P And I am dissapointed it wasn't like an Amway presentation from Oneri Flieta. Macias: Ok, guys. I have this great idea. I'll be the "captain" and I'll have 5 "co-pilots" who will pay me $100,000 each. They will each enlist 10 "passengers" who will pay them... That might be the only scenario in which Macias could be a captain of anything...

You weren't subject to being fined in absentia for your constant violations of touting OBP in your articles, were you? That might have been a hefty fine, judging by our team OBP outside of Lee and Ramirez.

Unless it ended with Baker being fined his 2005 salary for complete ineptitude, and Perez being fined $100 for every walk below the league average he didn't take, I can't think of a more unproductive meeting. :P And I am dissapointed it wasn't like an Amway presentation from Oneri Flieta.