Tracer Bullet

Don't know how many saw the Nate Silver (from BP) chat on ESPN that just ended, but there were a lot of Cubs questions and a few Cards questions, my favorite of which was: He also said that the Cubs may be NL Central favorites if we get 250 innings from Prior/Wood combined. That seems a little optimistic to me, but it's early in the year, so I'm willing to be optimistic. And hey, if the Cards finish with 86 wins, who knows?

=D>

I didn't have him starting last night either, but he's blocked by Dunn, Burrell, and Sizemore in the OF and ARam at Util. If Sizemore goes 0-for again (he's already 0-2 today), Murton may be in his spot tomorrow. My question is - do I deal one of those OFs for pitching and bank on Murton continuing his great hitting? With CC on the DL, my already weak pitchers are looking even worse.

I had the exact same concerns as bobbyd20. Maybe it's just a case of Dusty wanting to get everyone in the game, but I don't like seeing the starting guys out of the game so quickly. And yes, we built a good lead there in the 6th, but I didn't think the 5-run cushion would evaporate so quickly either. I guess I'd rather keep the starters on the field, keep some guys on the bench just in case, and play each game to maximize our chances of winning rather than trying to get each player an AB on opening day. If our pen blew the lead and our only PH in the 9th was Blanco, I wouldn't be too thrilled. Yes it's nice when you can get bench guys some ABs, but the point isn't to play as many guys as possible in each game. And I have no problem with criticizing players or the manager when the team won. Should we tell Zambrano "great game" just because his team put up 16? I hope not.

Unfortunately, I think he will offer him an extension. Please don't do that to me, Jim. Please.

Actually, you figure 3-4 ABs per game - that's about 600 homers.

Mine's completely stopped working now. I guess I shouldn't have complained about the frequent cut outs earlier.

Yes Thanks! It was driving me crazy during the Baker interview. It's going to drive me crazy all day. If these keeps up, I'm going to actually have to do some work.

Yes

That roster makes me wish I still lived in Des Moines.

Any more news? If it's bad, my fantasy team just took a big hit.

Um...that's Robert Smith.

I like the matte finish on Japan's helmets. Maybe it's b/c I wish we had Ichiro in right instead of Jones, but whatever.

How much are we paying Neifi again?

I couldn't have said it any better. Agreed.

I'd be surprised if it's not true. Sounds like they have some pretty credible sources:

FJM has a great article at the top about Finley and how great he is in CF.

I loved Stoney. Even got his autograph in St. Louis one year. Paul Wilson must still regret the 2 steps he took towards Farnsy that day. He starts walking out, Farnsy drops the glove and lowers his shoulder and Wilson's gotta be thinking "oh s... what did I get myself into"

My favorite line:

As I remember - that 30 game hit streak was a big story that year. I always attributed Walton's ROY to that. I remember thinking at the time that Smith looked like he'd be the better major leaguer. I guess that's probably true, he hung around Atl for a while, I think, but neither of them amounted to much.

huh? I second that. huh? Third.

Did we trade Ohman and Wuertz to Boston?

You are a marxist. :wink: While I find your opinions insightful, based largely in fact, and most often correct, they are still opinions. Requiring someone to be indoctrinated before posting is ridiculous. i'm half-kidding, and i tend to vent my frustrations often. besides, i'm not saying that people should be indoctrinated before posting, but should choose their battles wisely, and understand that if they post regarding the benefits of small-ball, they should be prepared to make a solid defense. they should also know that many have come before them with the same ideology--possibly, they should be linked to the best of those threads in which the subject has been debated, so they're not just rehashing the same things day after day. i think a hierarchy of needs has been established by those who have fought the battles, but i'll only state my interpretation of what that hierarchy looks like. 1. starting pitching is king. not only good starting pitching, but peripherally static starting pitching. a consistent G/F ratio is an amazing predictor of success, as is K/9 and K/BB. Those are the two things that i look at first when evaluating a starting pitcher. if those are good, the pitcher will most likely be a stud. the less often a hitter is able to put the ball in play in the air, the better. strikeouts and groundballs are the most efficient ways of reducing these variables. furthermore, starting pitchers rack up the most innings and are thusly, the most important of the pitchers. while relief is also important, it's significantly less important than starting pitching. 2. OBP is second in command. it effectively measures the rate at which a hitter makes an out. possibly, the number should be inverted and shown as it's opposite. a batter with a .400 OBP makes an out 60% of the time. there are more telling metrics introduced by more intelligent people, but i like to keep it simple. OBP is the best orthodox stat there is, no doubt. a hitter that strikes out a lot is a problem, but if he is able to offset the strikeouts with a great rate of not making an out, he's very valuable. exhibit A: Adam Dunn. as opposed to a player who strikes out a lot and does not offset it with a good walk rate. exhibit B: corey patterson. seeing a lot of pitches is also beneficial to a hitter, and is really the best thing you can do for the team. PPA goes to wearing down an opposing starter. if you have a hot starting pitcher on the mound, taking alot of pitches can be much more beneficial than bunting or hitting and running. corey patterson has a very low PPA rate for a guy who strikes out a lot, while dunn has a very high one. we've seen how effective this strategy can be against our own stud starters, no? 3. SLG. this pairs with OBP nicely to make OPS. measuring how many bases you average per AB. while OBP is your propensity to NOT make outs, SLG is your propensity to get bases when you're swinging away. this goes also to creating runs. if you have OBP and SLG peppered throughout a lineup, you're going to score plenty of runs without having to gamble by bunting and stealing bases. 4. relief pitching. see #1 minus the last 2 sentences. everything else is icing on the cake if you have these three factors. you don't need great team speed, great team defense, or great team chemistry to win if all or most of these are present on your baseball team. =D>

The stats suggested are pretty much on the high end in every category. It's probably overly optimistic to expect all of them ON TOP of expecting him to be healthy enough to put in 150+ games. That said, I hope they keep him and play him a lot. He's the best fit at 2B and at #2 in the batting order, given our current personnel. I don't dispute that those are on the high end of TW's performance, but given Meathead's qualifiers (stays healthy and is our starting 2nd), those numbers are reasonable. I was just disputing your statement that he'd never put up a similar line before. He has - the last time he was healthy enough to start 150 games. I don't think it's overly optimistic to expect those numbers if he's healthy. It may be optimistic to think he'll be healthy for the whole season, but if he is, it's certainly reasonable think he'd put up the line Meathead suggested. I just hope that he's healthy this year and wearing Cubbie blue.

Well, except for the fact that he's never had that kind of season before and he's entering his age 33 season. Really? In '02, didn't he put up a .299/.353/.431 line with 79 runs, 183 hits, 11 dingers, 64 RBI (not to mention 42 doubles) for the Reds. The HR are a little low, but not a whole lot. He's never hit more than 15 homers, so I'd estimate 10-15 homers this year, but otherwise I think the stats Meathead suggested are reasonable.