Tracer Bullet

In a month of facing guys he's never seen before, coming back from elbow surgery, and adjusting to an entire new country, you've determined he lacks power? You're an amazing scout.

I'd have been really worried if Lou started screaming obscenities when Pie hit a 3-run bomb in the 8th. Come on. You could tell they handled this differently than other Cubs homers. Everyone in the dugout, including the coaches, looked really excited about it. It was cool to watch. Sure it was different. He's a young player that hasn't had much success at this level. Much more exciting than a DLee HR at this point (unless it's a walk off or something). But WilcoFan's post is a little weird. Their reactions signal that they want him to succeed? Did anyone here really think Lou wanted him to fail? I think the coaches want him to succeed. I (and many others) just don't agree with the way they've been going about it. If this HR earns him more regular ABs, I think that's a pretty stupid reason to get more ABs, but I'll be happy that he's actually seeing the field rather than riding pine. For those that didn't see the game on ESPN, there were some very interesting comments by the ESPN announcers regarding Felix. According to them (not direct quotes), Lou loves Felix and thinks he has a chance to be a special player, so much so that Lou has personally taken it upon himself to work with Pie on his hitting in BP and is dedicated to seeing him succeed. I think that is why Wilco's comments are significant. After the HR and after hearing the announcers talk about Pie, it seemed like everyone was proud for Felix. Maybe Bruce can chime in and comment on whether the ESPN announcers were accurate or not, but, if they were accurate I think we are all misreading Lou's treatment towards Pie. It's already been reported here (not sure what thread) that Lou is working with Pie - trying to shorten his swing or quicken it or something. I haven't seen anyone argue that Lou wants Pie to fail. Some people think benching him this much isn't the best way for him to succeed. That's not the same thing as accusing the coaching staff of wanting him to fail. So you don't have to prove that the Cubs want him to succeed. No one is arguing against that.

I would also like Cedeno at second, DeRo in left and Pie in center Cedeno at SS, DeRosa at 2B, and Murton in LF (Pie in CF).

Which is why no one is debating that.

I'd have been really worried if Lou started screaming obscenities when Pie hit a 3-run bomb in the 8th. Come on. You could tell they handled this differently than other Cubs homers. Everyone in the dugout, including the coaches, looked really excited about it. It was cool to watch. Sure it was different. He's a young player that hasn't had much success at this level. Much more exciting than a DLee HR at this point (unless it's a walk off or something). But WilcoFan's post is a little weird. Their reactions signal that they want him to succeed? Did anyone here really think Lou wanted him to fail? I think the coaches want him to succeed. I (and many others) just don't agree with the way they've been going about it. If this HR earns him more regular ABs, I think that's a pretty stupid reason to get more ABs, but I'll be happy that he's actually seeing the field rather than riding pine. Finally having a nice at bat and getting rewarded for it by getting more at bats is stupid? If you, as a manager, make decisions on who should start based on 1 AB, yes, that is stupid. Do you really want your manager picking the next day's starters based on the last AB of each player from today's game?

I bet they are. If Pie can be who people think he can be this team will be extremely tough to beat. this is so true. dare to dream that Pie, Soto, and Cedeno all live up to potential this year.... If only we can keep finding a spot for Ronny. I was thrilled to see him at SS tonight, but I fear he's going back to the bench tomorrow unless DeRosa gets a day off.

I'd have been really worried if Lou started screaming obscenities when Pie hit a 3-run bomb in the 8th. Come on. You could tell they handled this differently than other Cubs homers. Everyone in the dugout, including the coaches, looked really excited about it. It was cool to watch. Sure it was different. He's a young player that hasn't had much success at this level. Much more exciting than a DLee HR at this point (unless it's a walk off or something). But WilcoFan's post is a little weird. Their reactions signal that they want him to succeed? Did anyone here really think Lou wanted him to fail? I think the coaches want him to succeed. I (and many others) just don't agree with the way they've been going about it. If this HR earns him more regular ABs, I think that's a pretty stupid reason to get more ABs, but I'll be happy that he's actually seeing the field rather than riding pine.

I'd have been really worried if Lou started screaming obscenities when Pie hit a 3-run bomb in the 8th.

So did he just rise from the dead?

Because most baseball players don't build mass like that, and they have access to the same trainers, facilities, diets, etc. Even if you compare Sammy to other professional athletes, his muscle growth is suspicious. Really? Seems like lots of kids, especially football players, gain significant muscle mass in college, for example. As for baseball players, rumors were that Sammy worked out religiously. I have no idea whether that's true or not. But he certainly hasn't taken the Miguel Cabrera approach of eating himself silly. You think if Cabrera went from eating like a pig to using a trainer/personal chef, he wouldn't drastically change his body in 2 years? As I said before, I have no idea if Sammy used steroids and there's certainly reason to be suspicious. But I don't think it's the near certainly that you seem to argue it is.

Hickman had one fluke season. After his big year, he dropped back down to his career norms. Sammy's OPS jumped almost 250 points in one season, and it stayed there for a long time. That's completely unnatural for a 29 year old with more than 4,200 Major League at bats. Really that different? In Hickman's typical peak years (25-29) his OPS+ was mid-high 90s with 1 mid 80s year. At age 32, he jumped up 20 points of OPS+ to 110, had a fluke 155, then back to 112 and 125. 4 seasons all at least 20 points higher than his other career high. Sosa had 3 seasons of OPS+ in the 120s when he was 25-27. Terrible year by his standards at age 28 (OPS+ 99), then jumped to OPS+ of 160 at age 29. Having a "peak" around age 29 isn't nearly as odd has peaking at age 32-35, I think. Anyway, sustained 150-160-ish OPS+ for 3 years, had the freak 203 OPS+ at age 32. Back to 160, then 133, then 113, then fell off in Baltimore (going from the NLC to the ALE, didn't help). Identical? Nope. But similar? Sure. Significant jump in production in their 30s sustained over several years, including 1 particularly big "fluke" year. As for Sosa's huge jump in OPS, sure, it was big. But it was due in large part to more walks, both IBB and unintentional-intentional. Check out that '01 team. Would you have pitched to anyone other than Sosa? Yes, his SLG was up 100 points, but his HR and 2B were in line with where he'd been. The previous year he had "only" 50 HRs, but a career-high 38 doubles. In '01, he had his 2nd highest totals in HR and doubles in the same year he had a career high in walks, solely attributable to 18 more IBBs than he'd ever had. I have no idea whether Sammy used steroids, HGH or whatever. Given the era he was in and the fact that he hit 60+ HRs in 3 different years in his early 30s, there's reason to suspect he did. But he's never been directly linked to it, despite lots of people jumping up to name other big stars. And having great seasons in your young 30s isn't totally unheard of. I wish I could find LD% and BABIP #s for those years as I'd like to see what role pure luck played.

Jim Hickman, statistically, or are you saying physically? Statistically. And although that's an impressive jump late in a career, I wouldn't call it Sosa-like. That's just me, though. I love this standard. "Find one guy who had a similar late-career jump." "Here's one." "Ok. Now find one that I think is similar. I'll tell you when you've found it."

Given how many LHP we've faced, I think it makes sense to run Pie out there against the RHP. I hate the idea of giving Pie a handful of PH at-bats every week, like that's going to help him get better or stop pressing. To improve, I think he needs to see regular ABs, at least against RHP. I don't think we would have a worse record if Pie had started against the RHP we've faced so far. And I think it will make the team better for the rest of the season to help Pie improve quicker than to get more ABs from Reed Johnson. The only start he's had in the past week was against Aaron Harang. Really, Lou, what's best for this team and his development is sitting against Snell, Fogg, Volquez, hell, even Jamie Moyer and Gorzelanny, but facing Aaron Harang?

Hopefully it's just the injury, all the lefties, and Johnson's hot streak. Pie's really bad at bats may be worthy of a temporary breather as well. It's hard to say what the original plan was. If they were thinking of getting him 450 PA this year, nothing has happened to change that plan longterm. But at any given time, the plan to play him or not depends on the situation. I thought the plan was a pretty straight platoon. Maybe the injury caused him to miss a game or two, but he's missed quite a few that aren't explained by the injury or the LHP. Maybe Lou wants to shorten his swing and that's causing him to miss time now. My point was - Tim suggested that you have to change your plans quickly when circumstances change. I agree to a point, but other than the injury, I don't see anything that would require abandoning the plan so quickly. I was wondering what he thought those changed circumstances were. I'm not so sure they've abandoned the plan. They've faced a bunch of lefties and Lou specifically wanted to sit Pie and work on some things. I'm worried about how that will affect the plan the rest of the way, but I'm not convinced it has changed. Add in the hot streak by Johnson (plus how well the team as a whole has played) and I can see the justification for how the CF situation has been handled to date. I can understand why they're playing Johnson more too, but that's not really the point. I understand that they're working on his swing, but they're still not playing him against RHP. Maybe they've only "suspended" the plan, but that's just semantics. Fact is, we do not have a platoon in CF. We have a starter (Reed) and a backup that almost never plays (Pie). Maybe if Lou decides Pie has "fixed" whatever Lou thinks is wrong with his swing and/or if Reed starts to suck, Pie will get more ABs. But that's still not the same as sticking with the platoon. The point of all of this is I don't think Lou has encountered different circumstances which necessitated a change in the platoon plan. I think Pie struggled for a few games and Reed started hot so Reed got more ABs. If Reed stops playing so well, Pie will start getting more ABs. But based on how quickly he's shifted people around in the past (I remember early last season the excuse people gave on here was "Lou's just figuring out his new team" or something), I'm skeptical that Pie will see 450 ABs, barring Reed getting injured or totally sucking for a month.

Hopefully it's just the injury, all the lefties, and Johnson's hot streak. Pie's really bad at bats may be worthy of a temporary breather as well. It's hard to say what the original plan was. If they were thinking of getting him 450 PA this year, nothing has happened to change that plan longterm. But at any given time, the plan to play him or not depends on the situation. I thought the plan was a pretty straight platoon. Maybe the injury caused him to miss a game or two, but he's missed quite a few that aren't explained by the injury or the LHP. Maybe Lou wants to shorten his swing and that's causing him to miss time now. My point was - Tim suggested that you have to change your plans quickly when circumstances change. I agree to a point, but other than the injury, I don't see anything that would require abandoning the plan so quickly. I was wondering what he thought those changed circumstances were.

Started Pie versus righties and Johnson versus lefties, just like the original plan at the beginning of the season. It'd take at least a month, maybe two, before I deviate from any Opening Day plans based on on-field performance. Then again, I'm not a big believer in "playing the hot hand." I compare it to timing the stock market. All it does is guarantee you'll miss the beginning of what otherwise would have been a hot streak, and always get the beginning of the slumps. How bad would short term performance have to be before you changed your mind? What other factors could influence your decision? Or would you stick with that original plan for a month no matter what (barring injury)? If he was swinging a mile late and missing literally every single pitch by two feet in both games and batting practice, I might consider making the move a week earlier. Short of that, there is absolutely nothing that would make me change anything in the first month of the season. Difference of opinion then. I love having a plan, but after years and years in the planning business I also recognize the need to quickly and continually adapt to changing circumstances. I definitely see your point of view, but I don't think that either one is necessarily right or wrong. Plenty of room for friendly debate! What circumstances have changed in the last 3 weeks that support giving Pie fewer ABs than originally planned (other than the hand/wrist injury, which I'm not sure was as much to blame for him missing time as was suggested)?

Just like in football, they give you stat tracker for free at first but then it's 9.99 if you want it live like it had been. If not, you have to wait until the next day. what a joke I don't think it's a bad deal. If you're in more than one Yahoo league $9.99 covers them all. I usually buy stat tracker during football season, but I usually don't for baseball. And I don't think it's a bad deal either. Yahoo is good enough to have a free league. This is a service they figure they can make some money from. If you want up to the minute stats, buy it. 10 bucks isn't a lot of money. If it is, just wait. They usually have the stats updated by 6am anyway. Yeah, my complaint with Y! isn't stat tracker. I buy it every year for baseball.

I literally just suffered some brain damage. Having 5 second basemen gives Lou the flexibility we need. And since this team kills left-handed pitching, we clearly need another LH hitter. What don't you understand? /sarcasm

I just think it's a top of the order thing. The Cubs want a guy who could lead off and they thought the best choice is Patterson. Their one dimensional thinking led to this imo, not a dislike of Murton. If that were true, wouldn't you be happy with the guy with the career .365 OBP, currently sporting a .442 OBP in the minors over the guy whose OBP last year in AAA was .362 and this year is .282? There is no logical reason to add a 5th second basemen to this team when the starting LF goes down and Murton is available in AAA.

I don't think that's right. It's not, Murton already burned an option year by getting sent down after spring training. That's what I thought. Once you burn an option year by getting sent down, you can go back and forth from the majors to the minors as much as the team wants, as I recall.

I don't think that's right.

I hate the Cubs. No ML roster should have 5 second basemen on it. Ridiculous.

Do people hate him b/c of all the pub he gets? b/c he's really good but plays for the hated Mets?

The fact that he wants Pie to bat 8th for Pie's benefit has an interesting piece of logic to it. It's sort of a trial by fire-Lou is going to change this part of Pie's game before Pie becomes set in his ways, even though Lou implies that he would have better production right now in another spot. I'm ok with that if Lou realizes that putting an extra learning curve on Pie by putting him there will take a little extra time for the adjustments, and he has to be patient with him. I agree that Pie should be hitting down in the order now. But I disagree with Lou regarding swinging at every strike. Unless you have 2 strikes, sometimes it's better to take a strike than swing at it. Some really good pitches are strikes that even really good hitters won't do much with (unless they get a lucky little blooper). Laying off great pitches that are strikes so that you can drive a ball you can handle is a much better approach than "swing at every pitch I think is a strike" which is stupid. If that means you strike out a few more times, rather than dribbling a soft grounder to 2nd, so be it. Oh, and Theriot should be hitting 8th regardless of where Pie is on his learning curve. Hit Pie 7th and Theriot 8th until Pie is ready to hit higher in the order.

Giving up a few games to see if a guy can play....are you serious? We only won the division by 2 games last year and people were crying for him to play last year...in Lou's better judgement he went with Jacque and he was a big help in our division title If Pie was hitting .250 and drawing a walk here and there he would be in there everyday, but he's not even close to that and right now in his career is a defensive replacement in the major leagues Regardless of what he did last year in the minors, that is where he belongs if they want him playing everyday because he is not a everyday major leaguer yet The difference between Reed Johnson's career line against RHP hitting 1st or 2nd and Pie hitting 8th isn't going to cost us 2 games in a month. It might not even cost us 2 games over a full year. With this team, there's just no reason Pie shouldn't be playing against every RHP.