craig

Thanks much, Nathan. Knowing the rotation helps, and all of those guys seem interesting. By the way, I'm pretty sure Yepez is from Venezuela, not Dominican. He was signed in Venezuela and played his first season back when the Cubs had an entry in the Venezuelan summer league. We'll be curious to here if he projects to have a big-league arm, or if he's a soft-tossing lefty prospect more in the Moyer/Rusch mode who'll need Maddux-esque control/movement to be good. The Cubs have sometimes been pretty good about projecting guys. Back in his short-season/A- days, Guzman was often written up as a "doesn't overpower" guy, with decent but nothing special velocity. The Cubs always seemed to project that he'd throw very hard in time. Hopefully Yepez the same. Teasley is a big dude. And an interesting guy. Went to a small Christian college; if they had a baseball team, I'm sure it must have competed in a very low-level college league, at best Division III or NAIA. Posters sometimes say that the cubs aren't fair to guys, the money signs and higher drafts get special treatment. But looking at opening rosters, we see Teasley (perhaps being considered for a significant role), Rapada, Shappert all as non-drafted guys who have gotten chances.

Thanks, Karen. Now that's an interesting roster, with *lots* of surprises and skips. Notes: *If Craig is there to catch, I bet he's disappointed. There are three catchers on the roster, and not many infielders. How much is the Daytona owner and GM and manager and pitchers going to want him to play catcher? Hm, should I play Craig at catcher, where's he's probably my worst catcher, and play mighty Jemel Spearman at 1B? Or play Craig at 1B and Fox or one of my other catchers at catcher? *Hagerty with a double skip! *Berg and Holliman also skipping up there. *Brett Jackson skipping up there! *Simokaitis skipping up there. *No sign of Kyle Reynolds. *Carlos Vasquez back, Blasko or Connolly not. *So, who starts? I assume Berg, Johnson, Gallagher, and Holliman. A whole bunch of former starters to contend for the last spot: Weber hagerty Vasquez Perez Shaver.... a lot of dudes heading for the bullpen.

I think Gallagher, Johnson, and Holliman are locks. I'd think Carlos Perez (??), the lefty in the Corey trade, is a good candidate. They usually like to have as many lefties as possible, and Gallagher, Johnson, and Holliman are all righties. Berg is a bit of a mystery. Having pitched only a couple of late games in full-A, and given how conservative the pitching promotions seem to be this spring, it would be a bit of a surprise if he'd be a guy to skip up to A+. Either he's hurt, skipped up to Daytona, or held back in extended spring. I suppose the latter is even less likely than skipping to Daytona, so probably Daytona or DL. I'll guess DL... Shaver may well be starting, although they may be ready to pitch him in relief sooner or later. Seemed he was mostly working relief in the exhibition games with the AA team; more likely Daytona rotation, but might be relief, too. Daytona also tends to be the place they put post-surgery guys. So it's possible that Blasko or Connolly or Vasquez or even Hagerty might be at Daytona. Will be interesting to see.

OK, sounds like it's Veal, Billek, Estrada, and Yepez. With the 5th to be determined later on. Sounds like Phelps and Sotolongo are strictly relievers.

Notes: -Sotolongo triple skipping up. -Dylan Johnston double skipping up (after being so awful in Rookie league last summer). -Pawelek not making it. -Monster man Jeff Teasley? -BA had Berg in top-25. But he's not at Peoria... Hurt? No good? At Daytona? -Stick a fork in Elvin Puello. -stick a fork in Alfredo francisco My Questions: -Veal and Billek start, that looks pretty easy to guess. -But who else? -Blackford, Avery, Atkins, Yepez, Estrada, Sotolongo, .... Who knows who'll be starting and who'll be relieving?

Thus far, it seems all news is bad. Pawelek is too wildman to make full-season. Billek not good enough for A+ Fox not good enough to make AA. Blasko and Connolly aren't healthy enough/good enough for AA. If Blasko isn't ready 22 months after surgery, how likely that more time will ever get him to 100%? Shaver isn't good enough for AA. Burrows isn't good enough for AA. Fuld isn't good enough for AA. Jackson isn't good enough/healthy enough. Who knows how a season will really go. WTenn's staff of journeyman middle-late 20's pitchers may be better than some staffs with more prospects. But it seems that when the 2nd and 3rd best arms/pitching prospects are Randy Wells and Juan Mateo, this doesn't come close to many previous years in terms of exciting prospects.

bear, thanks for the roster. Is it your understanding that all of those are active roster, or might there be some Iowa DL also? I'm curious in part regarding Valdes, who was supposedly a big-league non-roster invitee, but never pitched an inning. I've been assuming he wasn't healthy, or something, but then here his name shows up on the Iowa roster. I'm interested in valdes because I'm wondering who'll be the 5th starter. Even assuming Brownlie is in rotation, it still seems like as long as Marshall is up, there are only 4 obvious starters: Brownlie (and even he is questionable), Guz, Hill, and Ryu. So, is #5 Valdes? O'Malley? May not matter; maybe they don't really need #5 very often early, and if Wood and/or Prior are coming along, Marshall may be back soon enough.

I agree with that. I've heard some very complimentary things about Micah the person and as an ambassador with kids and fans. Seems to be a guy whose personal qualities may rate much higher than the average major leaguer.

I'll take my crack: Iowa: Hill Guzman Ryu Brownlie ??? -Valdes didn't show up in any ex games, so i assume he's hurt or something's up with him. -I'll tentatively guess Pignatiello, but they may prefer him in relief prepping for a loogy role, which is likely his only avenue to an actual Cub career. AA: Marmol, Mateo, ??, ??, ?? To me, that's the toughest one. Marmol is really the only gimme. There are so many guys coming off of surgery, it's pretty tough to guess who looks good. And it's also tough because for the most part in A-ball, the better prospects start, with occassional exception. But by AA time, often they think guys have enough iinnings in, and start to groom guys more for their major-league role. Wells and Mateo may be good prospects, but both are likely eventually relief-track. So, do you start them in AA to get innings, or will they put them into relief right now? Blasko, Connolly, they were once interesting prospects. Are they healthy enough to be good prospects again? Healthy enough for rotation innings? If healthy, do you want them rotation or want them for relief, their more likely ultimate role if they are to become big-leaguers? And what to think of old fossils like David Cash or Rocky Cherry? Seems silly to waste rotation spots on guys like that, but who knows? And what about the lefties? Chris Shaver, JR Matthes, Fleita loves lefties, but of course most lefties are really Loogy-track in terms of prospects? Who can guess how their leftiness gets valued relative to harder-throwing righties, and when their leftiness gets them switched to relief to get used to that? Or, for that matter, what about Holzkom (sp?) and Burrows types? Do you start these arms-guys just to rack up some reps and get more chance to learn how to control a non-fastball? Or have them in relief because that's their ultimate role if they make majors? Totally guesswork, in my book. That said, I'll guess Marmol, Mateo, Connolly, Blasko, and Matthes. Daytona: Gallagher, Johnon, Holliman, Billek, and Phelps I'll guess Gallagher stays in A, given his youth, and given how many older arms are available for up there. I expect Holliman to skip straight up. I'm guessing Phelps for rotation, because they seem to like him a lot. But it may be that they'll keep him in relief, who knows. Same question of how they wish to develop somebody who's eventually slated for big-league relief, if he is to make it? I'd think Weber and Estrada would be around as options if Gallagher moves up, or Phelps is in relief, or they hold one of Holliman or Billek at Daytona. There could be other surprises, though. Often they like rehabbers at Daytona. So who knows, would be no shock if Carlos Vasques or Blasko actually showed up there. Note: I don't have link, but there was a not in Petrick's area newspaper this week suggesting that his rehab is going well, and he's expected to pitch in mid-May. Peoria: Pawelek, Veal, Berg, Blackford, ??? I think Pawelek, Veal, and Berg are the confident guessers. They are high-value prospects, so wherever they go, they'll start. Not so sure about Blackford, I guess. I'd think that Blackford, Mitch Atkins, Matt Avery, Yepez, Darrin Downs, possibly even Scott Taylor if he looks good enough could all be candidates to fill out that rotation. Or, also possible that one of the Billek/Holliday types would stick, or that Estrada would repeat or something like that. And for all I know there could be somebody unpredictable, Billy Paganetti (sp?) or Trey Taylor or somebody.

Matt Craig at catcher, that's a good move. Too bad it's so late. Versatility is important towards a utility career, obviously. Unfortunately it doesn't seem he was very good defensively at 3B, so being versatily (sp?) sub-average at multiple positions doesn't help all that much... It had become pretty evident that he wasn't going to be the super-slugger to make it as a 1B (and with Sing and Dopirak commanding time, Craig was facing the same 1B clutter that hurts Hoffpauir). He wasn't hitting enough to offset his defensive limitations at 3B. But it's pretty evident that if he could transform himself into a decent-fielding catcher (unlikely as that may be), he's got more than enough bat relative to that low-offense position. he's got a strong arm, he doesn't have great range afield. So it seems that C could really play best to his physical strengths and limitations. Obviously we've seen a lot of guys take a shot at catcher (McGehee, Brendan Harris, etc..), and realize quickly enough that it's an awfully tough position to play. But if Craig became the miracle who could handle it defensively, it wold be a great place for his bat.

With all due respect, the complaint that promotions are based on politics and signing bonus etc. is a routine criticism of almost all farm systems, normally by supporters of players who who don't really project to fit in as big-leaguers and get bypassed by those who long-range big-league potential is better. I agree, by the way, that Hoffpauir is an *excellent* defensive 1B. My understanding from other observers as well is that he is really good in the field there. At the same time, he's 26 years old, and while his batting average may have been 4th or whatever on Iowa last year, he hit only .268 last year with only 3 HR's and a low OBP in almost 400 AB; maybe he went 4-5 the night before getting sent down, but the bottom line is that he didn't show enough bat for a 25-year-old to stay on the map as more than a very long-shot big-league prospect. I'm sorry if that sounds harsh. But having the 4th best average on a terrible-hitting minor-league team when that average is not supported by either HR's or OBP, when you're not young, and when you're playing 1B, that just isn't much for a fan of the major league team to get very excited about. I'm not sure I understand where the money thing fits in. Brandon Sing has been a mammoth producer, and has moved ahead of Hoffpauir on the major-league-prospect status. Sing was a 20th round draft choice, and was no more a money sign than Hoffpauir. Obviously he's not the fielder that Hoffpauir is, but Sing is definitely the better major-league prospect. Makes sense that they move Sing up, even if that comes at the expense of Hoffpauir. Maybe Dopirak? I expect that Dopirak will start ahead of Hoffpauir if both are at WTenn 1B. And I agree that for right now, there's a good chance that Hoffpauir might be a better player. Certainly way better defensively, and very likely to hit for better average. Is that unfair politics, biased by money and by Dopirak being a politics favorite? Maybe, if the goal is winning at WTenn or developing AA/AAA players. But the purpose is big-league guys. Dopirak is unlikely to become a good one, but he's young enough for it to still be a chance. I think most baseball people would think it best to start Dopirak, given his perceived potential. Most likely he'll never make enough contact to really capitalize on the power potential that he has, and he'll end up having no big-league impact. But there's a chance, and it makes sense to try to get him to what he might become if he works out his problems. In terms of opportunity, Hoffpauir has been a starter in each of his previous seasons, and has been promoted steadily, including skipping a level. I don't see how he's been deprived of fair chance. Had he hit .300 with 15 HR's and an .800+ OPS, I don't think he'd back at AA. But a .676 OPS as a 25-year-old 1B in the PCL, that's just not capitalizing on the opportunity afforded.

Last year the Cubs had significant infield injuries at 2B (Walker), SS (Nomar), and 3B (Aram). If all the starting infielders miss as many starts this year as they did last year, Neifi is going to get plenty more than 25 starts. But the original poster said that if the starting infielders were healthy, he didn't expect Neifi to get more than 25 starts. The "if healthy" clause will almost certainly not be met, so we'll never know. But I don't think that's a crazy view; in the unlikely event that the other infielders are healthy, I'm not sure I'd expect more than 25-30 starts for Neifi either.

Yes. Thanks for the details. Nice to see williams with a 1-2-3 inning. And Barrett with a HR. And Hairston getting on base. Williams is in the rotation, so getting him straightened out is big.

May be that they want to get a good assessment of where Marshall and Ryu stand in terms of actual roster decisions and rotation decisions, so they want to get a look at them against some major-league players, not the Casey Mcgehee/Dylan Johnston type minor-leaguers that Ryu has normally been facing in the late innings. Hill has gotten a couple of starts, Guzman as well, Marshall is now getting his second, and ryu his first. If the decision has already been made who's starting and who isn't, then sharing out starts seems silly. But if they really are screening, then it makes sense that if Ryu is still in the picture, that they give him a start and reevaluate after that; maybe he'll get pounded and make it clear that he doesn't belong in the picture, who knows. Or, perhaps Marshall is the current favorite, and they want to treat him that way, until/unless he proves otherwise?

We'll see in terms of actual scoring. It may be fine. But in terms of power, there is good reason to envision it being unusually weak. Or having an unusual number of low-power hitters in the lineup. Aram and Lee are the only true power hitters in the lineup. If those guys don't produce 75+ HR's, the HR-output could be pretty low. Pierre, very low on the HR-power scale. Cedeno/Neifi: low on the HR-power scale. Hairston (if he's chosen as the primary 2B): low on the HR-power scale. That leaves Murton, Jones, and Barrett. Barrett may be the best-hitting catcher in the league. But it's entirely possible that none of those three guys will hit 20 HR's this year. (Jones facing unfamiliar pitchers; lacking the benefit of the HomerDome, and probably having some spring HR's taken away by the spring Wrigley weather; supposedly realizing that his average has been so bad because he's been overswinging for HR's the last couple years, so fair chance that he'll cut back on his power swing...) I think it's entirely likely that the Cubs will drop off significantly in team HR's, and after years being near the top-of-the-league in HR's, that they'll likely drop into the middle of the pack. perhaps worse. And certainly they'll be super dependent on Aram/Lee; if one of those guys gets hurt, this will really be thin in the HR-department. Around half of the runs in the NL score on HR's in most of the last ten years. So a serious dip in HR-output, that's not a trivial thing. That said, they may be weaker in HR's but a lot stronger in terms of doubles and baserunning and perhaps OBP, etc.., and may come out similar or improved in OPS, and perhaps more efficient in terms of actually scoring runs, and perhaps doing so in game situations. It will be interesting to see how the season plays. I think it's entirely possible that the offense will end up looking like an asset, one of the stronger ones in the league, and finish in the top 5 or so. I think it's also entirely possible that the offense will be a liability, below average. Certainly the dependance on Aram and Lee is acute; if one of those guys goes down, the offense really looks different.

Yeah, I found it interesting that Guzman and Hill both pitched ahead of Marshall last rotation, but this time will pitch behind him, in relief. I assume Dusty stays at the home game, and sends coaches to the other game. On Pie playing right, I expect he'll play a lot of RF for Iowa, especially if Pagan goes down to Iowa. (Which I'd kinda prefer...) Hendry's best-case layout for the Cubs has Pierre being a productive player. If he's a huge bust and stinks, they'll need somebody else. But if he's at least decent, I don't think there's much doubt but that Hendry would like to keep him. And I don't think there's much question but that the Cubs hope Pie deveops enough punch as a hitter to be able to play corner. So I think it would make good sense for Pagan to play a lot of center, and be ready as trade bait to a CF-needing team, or be ready to function as a utility outfielder who can be the #2 CFer down the road. And if becoming a starter for Pie means playing RF, he should practice there. It may not require as much speed as does center, but technically it's more difficult to get good reads on fly balls from right than from center. So he'll benefit from some practice there. IMO.

Thanks for notes. I'd forgotten about Vasquez, at one point I was very high on him. Will be very interesting to see how many of these rehab pitchers are actually ready to pitch in full-season leagues when the season games begins. And of those who can, which have any of the stuff that originally made them interesting? Question for those who know better: what kind of timeline would you think Petrick would be on? Any sign of him in camp? Is he advanced enough to be participating in some of the workouts, I wonder? For some reason I think I recall hearing some reference to May. But my general experience is that if Fleita doesn't have a guy ready in April, the happy May talk usually ends up being no more than a few August innings in Mesa.

Pagan has had a good spring, a very surprising and excellent spring in all regards, both his base-stealng speed, his pure hitting ability, and his power. On a team that has shown very, very little HR power this spring, isn't Pagan with 3 HR like the power giant of the team? As a guy who can run and play a good CF and some corner, and can theoretically hit besides, he'd be a nice reserve outfielder. Thing is, it's just spring training. Once the season begins he'd park on the bench, Pierre will play everyday early, and Mabry and the veterans will pinch-hit and probably play LF/RF ahead of Pagan. I really don't see him doing much of anything until/unless an outfielder gets injured. If you carry him, and he produces when he does get opportunity, he may get increased chances and establish himself as a useful dude. But I can easily envision a scene where he has this grand spring, then doesn't play, and by May 15 he's 2-for-8, and whatever groove he established this spring is forgotten history, he's just a guy who's never been much of a hitter who isn't hitting well as a never-used guy, and he'd be in no position to help the 06 Cubs or establish himself as worthwhile for 06 Cubs, for 07 Cubs, or for trade value. Personally, I'm much prefer that Pagan goes down to Iowa. If he really has miraculously transformed into a major-league caliber hitter with some surprisingly decent power, he'll rock in the PCL and prove it down there. If he's hitting .320 with some power and speed, then you know you've got something. Maybe he plays himself into a sure-roster spot for 2007. Maybe he gets called up later when somebody gets hurt so that he'll get a chance to help, and he'll be locked in such that he actually does help. Maybe he'll establish himself as a genuine value, enough so that he has some July trade value. It just seems to me that if indeed he's actually a good player, he'll need more than 30 spring training AB to prove it. And his minor league track record doesn't show enough success for any GM to trade for him, for any Cub manager to use him, or for any fans to assume he's got the package. If he's worthless, then going to Iowa won't hurt the team and he'll be able to confirm as much. If he's got a chance to be pretty good, going to Iowa will give him a chance to confirm that, to prove it to everybody, and to go from there. But after he goes three weeks with 4 pinch-hitting appearances and no hits, I think whatever good he's done this spring will be pretty much forgotten. Send him to Iowa.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/transactions No surprise. According to the USAToday spring training stats, Mateo ended up pitching in only two exhibition games, and didn't even compelte two full innings. However, he was perfect in his brief attempts, retiring all five batters that he faced. Hopefully Mateo is an interesting prospect with a good arm, but just came to camp too late and too out of shape to give himself a chance to get a spot. I hope he pitches well for the Cubs.

Heh, any way to skip the pictures without being a paying member?

Makes sense that they should be stretching out Marshall... as well as the other guys. Ryu got stretched out to 3 innings today. Hill hasn't racked up tons of innings, but given how many pitches per inning he's been throwing, his pitch count is probably sufficiently stretched. Hopefully they get Marshall stretched out a bit. And Guzman's done multi-inning stuff with millions of pitches per inning too, so he'd seem to be stretched out a bit also. I don't think it's a matter of deciding who and then stretching out that guy. I think it's more a matter of stretching out all four, and make the choice based on how they are all looking, which could change enormously between now and decision time. Guys like Hill and Guzman haven't looked very sharp in terms of control this spring, but two back-to-back good games and the early stuff can be forgotten pretty fast. That Marshall and Ryu weren't expected to be factors also doesn't matter that much. I want somebody who'll be able to control his stuff now, even if he isn't necessarily the best long-term prospect. It's possible that Ryu and Marshall are ahead of Hill and Guzman in terms of present control.

Pujols played SS in JC, and naturally didn't scout very well there. Didn't have the arm, the speed, or the quickness. Like a lot of guys, he was a prospect with no clear defensive position ahead of him, and basically scored badly on three of the five scouting tools (speed, defense, throwing arm). Still does, more or less. But if you can hit like Pujols, the hitting tool trumps all.....

The odds of getting top players after the first round isn't real high. The sample size of big winners is small for everybody, and the picture is heavily influenced by a couple of big names, Pujols for Cards, Oswalt for Astros, Dontrelle for Cubs, etc.. Going back to 1987 enlarges the sample size, but at the same time the people who were scouting and coaching for the Cubs in 87-95 isn't very relavant to what's happened since Hendry took over and what will happen in future. If a couple of people from Justin Jones, Ricky Nolasco, Sisco, Sean Marshall crowd work out as good major leaguers (which is entirely possible, barring injuries), the Cub production could look pretty favorable. My point being, there is some luck to this. So you should keep trying? Also, obviously even though not many pan out, many still end up being key parts for trades. Bobby Hill was key guy for getting Aram. Brendan Harris and Justin Jones were key components in getting Murton and Nomar.

I think WHIP is awfully useful as a metric. But Cubbierich touches on it's greatest limitation: factoring in HR-allowed. I think looking at HR-rate for any pitcher is important. Sometimes focusing on WHIP, K-rate, and GB-rate but forgetting to check the HR-rate can cause mistakes. (I used to think the board always overrated Dotel, whose HR-rates were lousy but whose WHIP and K-rates were great). Maddux is a guy whose actual quality isn't nearly as good as you'd expect based on WHIP and GB rate. Because his HR rate is awful. He's also a great picture of how HR-rate doesn't necessarily correlate GB-rate. There are many pitchers like Maddux who have nice GB-rates but who still get HR'd often. The HR issue is especially crucial for the Cubs, since many of their pitchers are vulnerable. (I suppose that's true for most teams, but...). Maddux is vulnerable. Prior is very HR vulnerable, and is unlikely to actually be as good as his WHIP/K-rates might make you expect. Matt Clement was a strong GB-guy, but he too often lost on the HR. Wood loses a lot of his losses on HR's. Dempster was great last year becuase he was uncharacteristically anti-HR. Hard to guess whether that will hold. If he reverts to his HR-factory profile from rotation days, he'll blow his share of saves this year.

We'll see. But Cedeno has always been error-prone. He may hold his own defensively, but I'll be pretty surprised if he doesn't make his share of errors. Almost certainly more than Neifi would make. If he's not offering anything over Neifi with his bat, all he'll have over Neifi is youth/potential. If it comes down simply to which is the better defensive player, I honestly think Neifi will be better. Don't get me wrong, I'm not lobbying for Neifi to start. All I'm saying is that if Cedeno wants to *deserve* to play, I think he's going to need to hit. If he's drifting along with only a .605 OPS, I expect he'll error his way to the bench.