craig

I've heard that Berg is starting for Daytona tonight. Note: I don't know if Daytona's roster has been changed, but I've been told that it's Nic Jackson, not Bret Jackson, on Daytona's roster. I believe it.

By the way, I know that's who they got^^^ when they traded Valdez to the Dodgers, but didn't Valdez come in a trade along with Eric Young back in '99 or thereabouts? Who did we trade in that deal to get those two? Terry adams and fringe prospect(s) who never did anything.

One note on Micah Hoffpauir: Being assigned to AA is probably a good thing for him career-wise. Iowa has four outfielders who will play (Strong, Restovich are career-productive minor leaguers; Pie and Coats are Cub prospects). Hoffpauir wasn't going to get a lot of AB's from those four. Nor from Sing at 1B. (A concern here is that sing won't get enough OF time for my liking....) But at AA, there are only 3 outfielders listed on the roster, Greenberg, Walker, and Montanez. Greenberg can always switch and play some center, so basically it looks to me as if Hoffpauir could be the 4th outfielder there. (Plus get plenty of DH time.) For his big-league futures, I think as tim has alluded to, if Hoffpauir played a bunch of OF and showed he was a quality corner outfielder, that would greatly diversify his game and give him an increased chance to make the major leagues as a flexible utility guy. I could easily imagine a guy like that catching Dusty's eye with his 1B defense. And as a pretty good contact hitter, if he happened to catch fire and be grooved in during a spring training, it's possible his contact hitting could also catch a Dusty's eye. As a 1B-only guy, no chance. But if he can establish his ability to play LF and RF competently (if indeed he can do so), that would open things up for him.

Thanks for note on Gwaltney. "atkins and estrada seem to be the odd men out"... Do you mean Atkins? Or AVery? You mentioned Atkins as being in the rotation, in which case Avery would be out, in middle relief. Or is it Avery in the rotation, with Atkins the odd man out? Shaver was very effective the second half of last year, especially at Daytona. You mention thinking he'll be highlysuccessful as a lefty reliever. Any scouting comment on that? Did he have splits or a lowish arm slot or something that makes him especially tough on lefties? Tall guy, so I'd imagine a low 3/4 slot could look pretty tough on a lefty hitter. While his size has always suggested maybe he might throw hard, the impression I've gotten is that he's a relatively soft thrower, upper 80's or so? Am I wrong on that? Again, thanks for all your info.

What kind of stuff does Teasley have? If he a big fastball type wildman, or what? Thanks much for your input.

Very true. I guess I figured that guys like Walker and Fuld aren't likely to crash into the majors as single-position starting players. Like Angel Pagan, if they are to eventually make it, it will likely be as a utility outfielder. So I didn't think there would be much problem having Fuld play LF or RF if they thought he was a significant prospect and was ready for AA, and if they thought facing AA pitching would be better for his development. Fuld, Walker, Greenberg type guys could all split up outfield time (and DH time) at AA, and all share some CF and corner OF time to prepare them as utility outfielders. Certainly the success of the minor league clubs is better served with Fuld at Daytona.

Cates was not acquired in any trade. He was simply signed as a minor-league free agent.

Yes, Petrick of course. But yeah, we knew he wasn't going to be on a roster this soon, no chance given mid-season surgery last year. There was a note in Petrick's local newspaper two weeks ago claiming that his rehab was going well, and he's on pace to begin pitching in mid-May. So I'm feeling positive about his arm, not discouraged. IIRC, it was phrased as if he might be pitching for a team in mid-May. But local reporters are often mixed up on these things, so may have actually meant he'd begin throwing off a mount or something, who knows.

Now that we have all the minor league rosters in, it's pretty interesting. Obviously each one impacts the others, so having the whole bunch allows for some observatios. *The Cubs don't seem to be rushing anybody. People used to complain about the Cubs rushing prospects. But I certainly don't see that this spring. Pawelek not in full season. Fuld moves only one level. Billek and Phelps held in A-. Layden back in A-, Estrada, Fox staying in A+. Not much rushing that I can see. *The pitching seems to be remarkably, incredibly healthy. Young pitchers in their low 20's or less are very prone to injury. I used to think that if I guessed who the best five rotation prospects would be for each level, odds were good that at least one out of five at each level would turn up unhealthy. Was it two years ago that three of our best prospects, Jones, Petrick, and Ryu were all on special arm problem schedule, Sisco's arm wasn't as strong, Vasquez had problems, and of course Guzman and Hagerty and others weren't coming back as quickly as had been projected. But this year, I can't see anybody who was thought to be healthy end of last year who's DL'd now. Of the rehab guys, marshall and Guzman and Vasquez and Hagerty are all on active rosters. Blasko, Connolly, and Ransom are the only rehabs I can think of who aren't. That's very, very good. The only position player I can think of who's missing is Kyle Reynolds. Not bad at all. *Given the generally conservative promotion schedule, those who are being jumped are more noticable. Dylan Johnston and Luke Hagerty are the most noteworthy, and Justin Berg. Holliman starting straight in A+. Hhopefully Johnston is up there because he's the real deal. Ditto for Berg. Would be great if one or both of those guys established themselves as genuine prospects. *Not sure if it's just as a roster filler, but Brett Jackson at A+ surprised me too. May be a case of they needed somebody to fill the staff, so a fringe guy pop him up, hope he can handle it and you've got a surprise, but if he gets buried, who cares. But given that there are guys like Layden and Phelps and Estrada and Billek *not* promoting to Daytona, I don't exactly see how Daytona didn't have other options. Anyway, curious. *Daytona looks much stronger than I expected. I hadn't expected any of Fox, Craig, Fuld, or perhaps even Spears to be there. Having all four of those guys at Daytona, pretty professional hitters relative to A-ball, could make that a very productive offense. Culpepper too may not have much big-league potential, but may be a plenty competitive hitter relative to A+. Daytona is my choice for the team most likely to have a winning record. Hopefully playing alongside some of those guys who take a few pitches, even Harvey will take a few more pitches? Obviously he's still pivotal, and if he again struggles to reach the .300-OBP leve they won't be a super team. But if those other guys are productive hitters, plus if Harvey could reach base more regularly and elevate into a bigger contributor, Daytona could really score a lot of runs. *With neither Pawelek nor Taylor nor the Boise SS from last year nor Yusuf Carter nor Sammy Baez making full season, Boise should have the core of a potentially strong pitching staff, and at least a couple of position players who might possibly become prospects. Assuming that got supplemented by some draft choices or perhaps a talented Latin player or two that we don't know much about, perhaps Boise will be pretty interesting too. Of course, given probably not so much help from the draft, since after the first round we won't pick till the 5th. (And first rounders usually dont spend much time at Boise, either because they don't sign till after the season. And even if they do sign quickly, they rarely spend much first-summer tiime at Boise; if HS, they're at Mesa. If a college player is good enough to be top-15 selection, he won't need more than a couple of games at Boise before promotion to full-A.)

That would indeed be very interesting. Shaver obviously profiles as a reliever long-term, and that's actually what Stockstill said about him the day he drafted him. Would be quite a story if Hagerty was able to start successfully. Heh, it's a big skip up for him, under best of circumstances. He's never pitched above short-season level, so even if this was spring 2003, jumping from short season to A+ would be an aggressive step. To jump up there after three years in which he's only pitched about 25 innings, and when he had an ERA of over 31 in his 14 innings at Boise last year with 30 walks and 9 wild pitches in 14 innings, that seems a very ambitious skip up. We'll see how he does. Would be a great story if he could handle it. May also be a case where Fleita figures he's old enough, challenge him, see what he can do, fish or cut bait. If he responds well, fantastic. If not, others from the Weber Shaver Vasquez Perez pool would be happy to replace them. (Of course, may be that one of them is already in rotation, with Berg or Holliman already in relief rather than rotation...) May also be that if Hagerty struggles, in short enough time the Cubs may be ready to bring in Blasko or Connolly or Robert Ransom from the rehab pool. Or for all I know Lee Gwaltney may be sitting in Mesa sort of on reserve.... Or, if Billek gets off to a good start at Peoria, he could promote up to Daytona and get replaced at Peoria by somebody: maybe Pawelek, or Avery, or Estrada, or somebody like that.

Thanks much, Nathan. Knowing the rotation helps, and all of those guys seem interesting. By the way, I'm pretty sure Yepez is from Venezuela, not Dominican. He was signed in Venezuela and played his first season back when the Cubs had an entry in the Venezuelan summer league. We'll be curious to here if he projects to have a big-league arm, or if he's a soft-tossing lefty prospect more in the Moyer/Rusch mode who'll need Maddux-esque control/movement to be good. The Cubs have sometimes been pretty good about projecting guys. Back in his short-season/A- days, Guzman was often written up as a "doesn't overpower" guy, with decent but nothing special velocity. The Cubs always seemed to project that he'd throw very hard in time. Hopefully Yepez the same. Teasley is a big dude. And an interesting guy. Went to a small Christian college; if they had a baseball team, I'm sure it must have competed in a very low-level college league, at best Division III or NAIA. Posters sometimes say that the cubs aren't fair to guys, the money signs and higher drafts get special treatment. But looking at opening rosters, we see Teasley (perhaps being considered for a significant role), Rapada, Shappert all as non-drafted guys who have gotten chances.

Thanks, Karen. Now that's an interesting roster, with *lots* of surprises and skips. Notes: *If Craig is there to catch, I bet he's disappointed. There are three catchers on the roster, and not many infielders. How much is the Daytona owner and GM and manager and pitchers going to want him to play catcher? Hm, should I play Craig at catcher, where's he's probably my worst catcher, and play mighty Jemel Spearman at 1B? Or play Craig at 1B and Fox or one of my other catchers at catcher? *Hagerty with a double skip! *Berg and Holliman also skipping up there. *Brett Jackson skipping up there! *Simokaitis skipping up there. *No sign of Kyle Reynolds. *Carlos Vasquez back, Blasko or Connolly not. *So, who starts? I assume Berg, Johnson, Gallagher, and Holliman. A whole bunch of former starters to contend for the last spot: Weber hagerty Vasquez Perez Shaver.... a lot of dudes heading for the bullpen.

I think Gallagher, Johnson, and Holliman are locks. I'd think Carlos Perez (??), the lefty in the Corey trade, is a good candidate. They usually like to have as many lefties as possible, and Gallagher, Johnson, and Holliman are all righties. Berg is a bit of a mystery. Having pitched only a couple of late games in full-A, and given how conservative the pitching promotions seem to be this spring, it would be a bit of a surprise if he'd be a guy to skip up to A+. Either he's hurt, skipped up to Daytona, or held back in extended spring. I suppose the latter is even less likely than skipping to Daytona, so probably Daytona or DL. I'll guess DL... Shaver may well be starting, although they may be ready to pitch him in relief sooner or later. Seemed he was mostly working relief in the exhibition games with the AA team; more likely Daytona rotation, but might be relief, too. Daytona also tends to be the place they put post-surgery guys. So it's possible that Blasko or Connolly or Vasquez or even Hagerty might be at Daytona. Will be interesting to see.

OK, sounds like it's Veal, Billek, Estrada, and Yepez. With the 5th to be determined later on. Sounds like Phelps and Sotolongo are strictly relievers.

Notes: -Sotolongo triple skipping up. -Dylan Johnston double skipping up (after being so awful in Rookie league last summer). -Pawelek not making it. -Monster man Jeff Teasley? -BA had Berg in top-25. But he's not at Peoria... Hurt? No good? At Daytona? -Stick a fork in Elvin Puello. -stick a fork in Alfredo francisco My Questions: -Veal and Billek start, that looks pretty easy to guess. -But who else? -Blackford, Avery, Atkins, Yepez, Estrada, Sotolongo, .... Who knows who'll be starting and who'll be relieving?

Thus far, it seems all news is bad. Pawelek is too wildman to make full-season. Billek not good enough for A+ Fox not good enough to make AA. Blasko and Connolly aren't healthy enough/good enough for AA. If Blasko isn't ready 22 months after surgery, how likely that more time will ever get him to 100%? Shaver isn't good enough for AA. Burrows isn't good enough for AA. Fuld isn't good enough for AA. Jackson isn't good enough/healthy enough. Who knows how a season will really go. WTenn's staff of journeyman middle-late 20's pitchers may be better than some staffs with more prospects. But it seems that when the 2nd and 3rd best arms/pitching prospects are Randy Wells and Juan Mateo, this doesn't come close to many previous years in terms of exciting prospects.

bear, thanks for the roster. Is it your understanding that all of those are active roster, or might there be some Iowa DL also? I'm curious in part regarding Valdes, who was supposedly a big-league non-roster invitee, but never pitched an inning. I've been assuming he wasn't healthy, or something, but then here his name shows up on the Iowa roster. I'm interested in valdes because I'm wondering who'll be the 5th starter. Even assuming Brownlie is in rotation, it still seems like as long as Marshall is up, there are only 4 obvious starters: Brownlie (and even he is questionable), Guz, Hill, and Ryu. So, is #5 Valdes? O'Malley? May not matter; maybe they don't really need #5 very often early, and if Wood and/or Prior are coming along, Marshall may be back soon enough.

I agree with that. I've heard some very complimentary things about Micah the person and as an ambassador with kids and fans. Seems to be a guy whose personal qualities may rate much higher than the average major leaguer.

I'll take my crack: Iowa: Hill Guzman Ryu Brownlie ??? -Valdes didn't show up in any ex games, so i assume he's hurt or something's up with him. -I'll tentatively guess Pignatiello, but they may prefer him in relief prepping for a loogy role, which is likely his only avenue to an actual Cub career. AA: Marmol, Mateo, ??, ??, ?? To me, that's the toughest one. Marmol is really the only gimme. There are so many guys coming off of surgery, it's pretty tough to guess who looks good. And it's also tough because for the most part in A-ball, the better prospects start, with occassional exception. But by AA time, often they think guys have enough iinnings in, and start to groom guys more for their major-league role. Wells and Mateo may be good prospects, but both are likely eventually relief-track. So, do you start them in AA to get innings, or will they put them into relief right now? Blasko, Connolly, they were once interesting prospects. Are they healthy enough to be good prospects again? Healthy enough for rotation innings? If healthy, do you want them rotation or want them for relief, their more likely ultimate role if they are to become big-leaguers? And what to think of old fossils like David Cash or Rocky Cherry? Seems silly to waste rotation spots on guys like that, but who knows? And what about the lefties? Chris Shaver, JR Matthes, Fleita loves lefties, but of course most lefties are really Loogy-track in terms of prospects? Who can guess how their leftiness gets valued relative to harder-throwing righties, and when their leftiness gets them switched to relief to get used to that? Or, for that matter, what about Holzkom (sp?) and Burrows types? Do you start these arms-guys just to rack up some reps and get more chance to learn how to control a non-fastball? Or have them in relief because that's their ultimate role if they make majors? Totally guesswork, in my book. That said, I'll guess Marmol, Mateo, Connolly, Blasko, and Matthes. Daytona: Gallagher, Johnon, Holliman, Billek, and Phelps I'll guess Gallagher stays in A, given his youth, and given how many older arms are available for up there. I expect Holliman to skip straight up. I'm guessing Phelps for rotation, because they seem to like him a lot. But it may be that they'll keep him in relief, who knows. Same question of how they wish to develop somebody who's eventually slated for big-league relief, if he is to make it? I'd think Weber and Estrada would be around as options if Gallagher moves up, or Phelps is in relief, or they hold one of Holliman or Billek at Daytona. There could be other surprises, though. Often they like rehabbers at Daytona. So who knows, would be no shock if Carlos Vasques or Blasko actually showed up there. Note: I don't have link, but there was a not in Petrick's area newspaper this week suggesting that his rehab is going well, and he's expected to pitch in mid-May. Peoria: Pawelek, Veal, Berg, Blackford, ??? I think Pawelek, Veal, and Berg are the confident guessers. They are high-value prospects, so wherever they go, they'll start. Not so sure about Blackford, I guess. I'd think that Blackford, Mitch Atkins, Matt Avery, Yepez, Darrin Downs, possibly even Scott Taylor if he looks good enough could all be candidates to fill out that rotation. Or, also possible that one of the Billek/Holliday types would stick, or that Estrada would repeat or something like that. And for all I know there could be somebody unpredictable, Billy Paganetti (sp?) or Trey Taylor or somebody.

Matt Craig at catcher, that's a good move. Too bad it's so late. Versatility is important towards a utility career, obviously. Unfortunately it doesn't seem he was very good defensively at 3B, so being versatily (sp?) sub-average at multiple positions doesn't help all that much... It had become pretty evident that he wasn't going to be the super-slugger to make it as a 1B (and with Sing and Dopirak commanding time, Craig was facing the same 1B clutter that hurts Hoffpauir). He wasn't hitting enough to offset his defensive limitations at 3B. But it's pretty evident that if he could transform himself into a decent-fielding catcher (unlikely as that may be), he's got more than enough bat relative to that low-offense position. he's got a strong arm, he doesn't have great range afield. So it seems that C could really play best to his physical strengths and limitations. Obviously we've seen a lot of guys take a shot at catcher (McGehee, Brendan Harris, etc..), and realize quickly enough that it's an awfully tough position to play. But if Craig became the miracle who could handle it defensively, it wold be a great place for his bat.

With all due respect, the complaint that promotions are based on politics and signing bonus etc. is a routine criticism of almost all farm systems, normally by supporters of players who who don't really project to fit in as big-leaguers and get bypassed by those who long-range big-league potential is better. I agree, by the way, that Hoffpauir is an *excellent* defensive 1B. My understanding from other observers as well is that he is really good in the field there. At the same time, he's 26 years old, and while his batting average may have been 4th or whatever on Iowa last year, he hit only .268 last year with only 3 HR's and a low OBP in almost 400 AB; maybe he went 4-5 the night before getting sent down, but the bottom line is that he didn't show enough bat for a 25-year-old to stay on the map as more than a very long-shot big-league prospect. I'm sorry if that sounds harsh. But having the 4th best average on a terrible-hitting minor-league team when that average is not supported by either HR's or OBP, when you're not young, and when you're playing 1B, that just isn't much for a fan of the major league team to get very excited about. I'm not sure I understand where the money thing fits in. Brandon Sing has been a mammoth producer, and has moved ahead of Hoffpauir on the major-league-prospect status. Sing was a 20th round draft choice, and was no more a money sign than Hoffpauir. Obviously he's not the fielder that Hoffpauir is, but Sing is definitely the better major-league prospect. Makes sense that they move Sing up, even if that comes at the expense of Hoffpauir. Maybe Dopirak? I expect that Dopirak will start ahead of Hoffpauir if both are at WTenn 1B. And I agree that for right now, there's a good chance that Hoffpauir might be a better player. Certainly way better defensively, and very likely to hit for better average. Is that unfair politics, biased by money and by Dopirak being a politics favorite? Maybe, if the goal is winning at WTenn or developing AA/AAA players. But the purpose is big-league guys. Dopirak is unlikely to become a good one, but he's young enough for it to still be a chance. I think most baseball people would think it best to start Dopirak, given his perceived potential. Most likely he'll never make enough contact to really capitalize on the power potential that he has, and he'll end up having no big-league impact. But there's a chance, and it makes sense to try to get him to what he might become if he works out his problems. In terms of opportunity, Hoffpauir has been a starter in each of his previous seasons, and has been promoted steadily, including skipping a level. I don't see how he's been deprived of fair chance. Had he hit .300 with 15 HR's and an .800+ OPS, I don't think he'd back at AA. But a .676 OPS as a 25-year-old 1B in the PCL, that's just not capitalizing on the opportunity afforded.

Last year the Cubs had significant infield injuries at 2B (Walker), SS (Nomar), and 3B (Aram). If all the starting infielders miss as many starts this year as they did last year, Neifi is going to get plenty more than 25 starts. But the original poster said that if the starting infielders were healthy, he didn't expect Neifi to get more than 25 starts. The "if healthy" clause will almost certainly not be met, so we'll never know. But I don't think that's a crazy view; in the unlikely event that the other infielders are healthy, I'm not sure I'd expect more than 25-30 starts for Neifi either.

Yes. Thanks for the details. Nice to see williams with a 1-2-3 inning. And Barrett with a HR. And Hairston getting on base. Williams is in the rotation, so getting him straightened out is big.

May be that they want to get a good assessment of where Marshall and Ryu stand in terms of actual roster decisions and rotation decisions, so they want to get a look at them against some major-league players, not the Casey Mcgehee/Dylan Johnston type minor-leaguers that Ryu has normally been facing in the late innings. Hill has gotten a couple of starts, Guzman as well, Marshall is now getting his second, and ryu his first. If the decision has already been made who's starting and who isn't, then sharing out starts seems silly. But if they really are screening, then it makes sense that if Ryu is still in the picture, that they give him a start and reevaluate after that; maybe he'll get pounded and make it clear that he doesn't belong in the picture, who knows. Or, perhaps Marshall is the current favorite, and they want to treat him that way, until/unless he proves otherwise?

We'll see in terms of actual scoring. It may be fine. But in terms of power, there is good reason to envision it being unusually weak. Or having an unusual number of low-power hitters in the lineup. Aram and Lee are the only true power hitters in the lineup. If those guys don't produce 75+ HR's, the HR-output could be pretty low. Pierre, very low on the HR-power scale. Cedeno/Neifi: low on the HR-power scale. Hairston (if he's chosen as the primary 2B): low on the HR-power scale. That leaves Murton, Jones, and Barrett. Barrett may be the best-hitting catcher in the league. But it's entirely possible that none of those three guys will hit 20 HR's this year. (Jones facing unfamiliar pitchers; lacking the benefit of the HomerDome, and probably having some spring HR's taken away by the spring Wrigley weather; supposedly realizing that his average has been so bad because he's been overswinging for HR's the last couple years, so fair chance that he'll cut back on his power swing...) I think it's entirely likely that the Cubs will drop off significantly in team HR's, and after years being near the top-of-the-league in HR's, that they'll likely drop into the middle of the pack. perhaps worse. And certainly they'll be super dependent on Aram/Lee; if one of those guys gets hurt, this will really be thin in the HR-department. Around half of the runs in the NL score on HR's in most of the last ten years. So a serious dip in HR-output, that's not a trivial thing. That said, they may be weaker in HR's but a lot stronger in terms of doubles and baserunning and perhaps OBP, etc.., and may come out similar or improved in OPS, and perhaps more efficient in terms of actually scoring runs, and perhaps doing so in game situations. It will be interesting to see how the season plays. I think it's entirely possible that the offense will end up looking like an asset, one of the stronger ones in the league, and finish in the top 5 or so. I think it's also entirely possible that the offense will be a liability, below average. Certainly the dependance on Aram and Lee is acute; if one of those guys goes down, the offense really looks different.