craig

The rumors about the Lee deal sound very favorable to me. He's a really good player right now, and a good team guy, durable, and a fine fielder. (Or at least has been to date.) The Cubs needed him to get signed, given how central he is to the middle of the lineup. To get a premium guy at a good age without gross overpay, that's excellent. at $13-14/year, that's not cheap but the market calls for that sort of thing. Hendry sustains his general record of getting pretty reasonable deals. (Alf and Jacque Jones deals being perhaps the exceptions...) Of course, all of this is premature, based on some national report of the dollars. Routinely when the real details come out, things can look very different. What I'm most interested in is whether he's got a free-agency opt-out option after a year or two. Aram's big deal, for example, was really only a one-year extension sure, but with a few dozen extra million guaranteed to ARam in case he got badly hurt or fell off a cliff. Aram can go free agent after this year if he has a good season. Lee could have gone FA after this year; will this contract give him the option to go FA after next year, ala Aram's? I hope not. On Dope: Tim is correct in that this doesn't particularly leave any doors open for Dopirak to ever become a starter for the Cubs. Not much of a factor for Dope, I wouldn't think. His issue is whether he can get to the major leagues and become good enough to possibly start in the major leagues. But that's a sufficiently improbable outcome, if he becomes good enough to be a big-league starter, he should be thrilled. If the issue of whether he starts for the Cubs or for somebody else becomes an issue, that means his career will have taken a rather pleasant turn. Remember, last year he was a bad-running, defensive butcher who had a .670-OPS and a .289-OPB while not being especially young for his league. For a good-fielding catcher, that might be one thing. For a future DH, not so good! When you adjust his OBP to factor in his GDP, his adjusted OBP is around .250! So he was kind of the Florida State League's Corey Patterson last year. I think there was some indication he might have been poised for a rebound year. And certainly given how awful he was, he needed a huge rebound to have much value. Hopefully that will happen. But he is such a long shot, and had so many flaws last year, it's hoping for a lot to imagine him growing into very serious trade value. Hope it happens. Sure seems like a nice, positive guy. Would be cool if things work out for him.

Nathan, having you give reports on these pitchers is great! What's your report on Atkins and Avery? My old notes on Avery is that when he's on, he's got an excellent, heavy sinking fastball, and in past got up around 89-91 or so for velocity. Atkins as a solid-framed guy who's fastball can max out in the 91-93 range, and has a change and curve that don't look bad but none of the three pitches was very refined in terms of location or consistency last year. The scoop I'd gotten is that he's kind of a work in progress, and part of his future depends both on getting more consistent with his location but also his fastball velocity (hitting 91-92 one day, next game perhaps no faster than 87-89), but also on the projection that given his size and youth, he might end up throwing quite a bit harder in future than he did last year. I've gotten no feedback on whether he's more a 2-seam sinker/GB guy with a lot of fastball movement, or not so much movement on the fastball or perhaps more of a flyball guy. Appreciate any early thoughts or observations! Thanks a ton.

Nathan, what can you tell us about Blackford, Sotologo, and Campusano, all of whom pitched well in yesterday's game. A friend who was at mesa late in spring mentioned Campusano as one of the most impressive guys he saw; and his debut yesterday K'ing the side in his first inning would seem to jive with that. Is he a big-league prospect with a major-league arm, or more of a guy with an average arm who'd need to have above average control or above-average breaking pitch to be an above-average big-league reliever? Sotolongo sounds like a big dude. Does he have a big power arm? Or is his fastball really good, or no faster than what 3-5 guys on any Midwest League team can do?? And how about Blackford? 2-seam Sinker/curveball guy with enough velocity on his sinker to get it in the 88-91 kind of range?

Ron, what was working for Marmol last night in the opener? Just a good game, or was he doing something different to get so many groundouts? 2. What can you tell us in terms of scouting stuff about Clay Rapada? I admit I'm surprised that he's emerged as the opening closer, since he's a lefty and already 25. He's a curiousity. Specific Q's: a) On the site I look (minorleaguebaseball), it lists him at 6'5", 180. Is he really that skinny, or is that a typically prehistoric weight listing and he's reasonably filled out by now? b) How fast is his fastball? Does he have the velocity to be a good big-league bet? c) Iheard he looked good in one inning on a WGN spring game, but I didn't see him. Does he have an ordinary delivery, or something lower that might be especially tough on lefties? Does he pretty naturally project as a big-league LOOGY? d) His career background is very unusual, if indeed he turns out to be a star AA reliever and an eventual big-leaguer. Usually any lefty who can walk and chew gum gets drafted, especially one's who are 6'5" and have any projection. Plus he was all-conference or something in one of his college seasons. yet he went undrafted. Was he injured, did he quit baseball for a while, get suspended or something, or what? Seems an unusual story. His first two pro years (02-03), there seemed no hint of potential, just a lefty roster filler: ERA over 5 as a 23-year-old in A-, and his K/IP those first two seasons was a blah 39K/64 IP, nothing to notice. Then, all of a sudden, he turned into a K-guy stud, with 91K/85IP in 04 and 61K/42IP last year, all while being an anti-HR guy besides. What happened? Why wasn't he drafted in the first place? And what flipped him from a no-K roster-filler into a high-K very effective minor leaguer? Got healthy and got fast? Dropped his arm slot and went crazy? Mastered a slider so that now he's got a knockout pitch he didn't have before? Very unusual.

Wow, very interesting details. *Thanks, Peoria, for notes on gallagher. The hesitation on him has always involved the question of whether his fastball was enough, and whether his breaking stuff will be enough versus better hitters. Related was the Q of GB/FB; last year he got a lot of outs on fly balls, I believe, and even though he didn't allow many HR's it raised the Q of whether big-leaguers might hit them. BA didn't rank his curve as all that special, either, IIRC. Last night he got a lot of GB outs, and that would jive with mixing in the slider. Being able to mix things up with the slider as well could help him a lot, especially since he seems to have the brains to probably know how to use what he has, and seems to have the control to perhaps have a shot to be able to control multiple pitches. Last night is opener, he's undoubtedly psyched to get off to a good start, his arm isn't tired yet, yada yada, so if there's any day to hit 94-95, opening day when it's not too cold is as good as there is. Still, if he can get mid-90's on a good day, then hopefully he can rest in the 89-92 range even on average days, which is more than enough for a guy with good control, good brains, and good offspeed stuff. Outshined, that's a great point about the scouting uncertainty. They always project more speed for lanky guys, and not for thicker guys. But it seems there have been many examples of guys who haven't filled out all that much who have still added velocity. If Gallagher is one, Nolasco is certainly another. His velocity seemed to increase as much or more than lots of the projection guys. It's a pretty uncertain science. CalRaisin, thanks much for the Aardsma stuff. If he's got his arm back, and his velocity is significatly upgraded from last year, that makes him a way more legit prospect. The stuff I recall from last year was mostly 88-92 range, and in fact that's what the February VineLine said about him. 88-92 is good for a control pitcher with a good breaking ball, but that ain't Aardsma! But if his velocity is back consistently in the 91-97 range, he may not need such great control to contribute in the majors. Thanks for the good news.

I don't remember. Is Blackford one of the guys who profiled asa astrong groundball guy? Nice starts yesterday. Will be interesting to get readings on some of the relievers, too. Is Rapada goign to emerge as a serious guy? Might either Sotolongo or Campusano emerge as legit prospects? Berg was mongo wildman on opener, but was 8-0 for GB/FB.

raisin, can you expand on this from the context? I know he was clocked a number of times in the upper 90's his draft year and following. Is Ron saying he's been clocked regularly in the upper 90's more recently? If so, when? This spring? Last summer when he wasn't very good? The reason I'm askin is that it seemed he looked pretty good and was throwing pretty hard in spring. But my recall from last summer was that he wasn't throwing quite that well, or that effectively. Has something changed, or not? Was he throwing regularly in 95-97 last year too, even when he wasn't much good? If so, it's obvious that his 95-97 is no more useful, short of improved movement or control, than it was last summer, and he's fringe prospect. But if the story is that something is changed, that for whatever reason last summer he was more 88-92, and now he's back to 91-97 again, then it's reasonable to think his prospects now are better than they were then. But if there's been no boost in his velocity, that's a differet story.

Excellent! That's really interesting, and hopeful news. Heh, let's hope he's not only in the rotation, but that he can succeed there. So, DJAXXFAN, now we're confirmed on all the rotations... except I'm not sure I've seen your DJaxx rotation! Did I miss that somewhere? I know Mathes, I've assumed Marmol, and since Mateo pitched five yesterday, I assume he's in. I hope Wells is in; he's young enough, looked good this spring, and was very effective in rotation for Daytona. (Although he's formerly been used in relief, so may project more as a big-league reliever if he makes the majors.) Are those right, or no? And who's #5? Pigs? Cash? Cherry?

http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/Sports/Baseball/sptCUBS02040606.htm As expected, specifies, Berg, Johnson, Gallagher, and Holliman as four of the starters. Does not specify who #5 is. I know Nathan thought that Hagerty is #5, and I hope he's correct. A friend who was at camp late last week said that Weber was starting one of their last Mesa games, though, so seems a good chance that he's #5. Before camp opened, I'd have thought Carlos Perez was a good candidate, too. Shaver is definitely in relief.

I agree. I wonder if there are some health issues with Reynolds, who I believe has a long-standing chronic injury history in college. For the pitchers, it certainly doesn't speak well for their standing in the organization. Every spring, of course, they hold a batch of older pitchers back in extended spring. Function as a taxi squad, sort of. If a pitcher in A-ball gets injured, pull somebody in their 20's up from the Mesa taxi-squad! If a pitcher in AA or AAA gets hurt, promote somebody from A+, and replace him from the taxi squad. But it probably doesn't speak too well for Dwons or Blevins or Brannon's status if they are held on the taxi squad rather than making a real roster... Of course, health may also factor. Downs has had plenty of arm problems, last year and in high school, and isn't very good to begin with. If he's not 100% physically, no surprise that he might have trouble cracking a full-seasonn team.

I've heard that Berg is starting for Daytona tonight. Note: I don't know if Daytona's roster has been changed, but I've been told that it's Nic Jackson, not Bret Jackson, on Daytona's roster. I believe it.

By the way, I know that's who they got^^^ when they traded Valdez to the Dodgers, but didn't Valdez come in a trade along with Eric Young back in '99 or thereabouts? Who did we trade in that deal to get those two? Terry adams and fringe prospect(s) who never did anything.

One note on Micah Hoffpauir: Being assigned to AA is probably a good thing for him career-wise. Iowa has four outfielders who will play (Strong, Restovich are career-productive minor leaguers; Pie and Coats are Cub prospects). Hoffpauir wasn't going to get a lot of AB's from those four. Nor from Sing at 1B. (A concern here is that sing won't get enough OF time for my liking....) But at AA, there are only 3 outfielders listed on the roster, Greenberg, Walker, and Montanez. Greenberg can always switch and play some center, so basically it looks to me as if Hoffpauir could be the 4th outfielder there. (Plus get plenty of DH time.) For his big-league futures, I think as tim has alluded to, if Hoffpauir played a bunch of OF and showed he was a quality corner outfielder, that would greatly diversify his game and give him an increased chance to make the major leagues as a flexible utility guy. I could easily imagine a guy like that catching Dusty's eye with his 1B defense. And as a pretty good contact hitter, if he happened to catch fire and be grooved in during a spring training, it's possible his contact hitting could also catch a Dusty's eye. As a 1B-only guy, no chance. But if he can establish his ability to play LF and RF competently (if indeed he can do so), that would open things up for him.

Thanks for note on Gwaltney. "atkins and estrada seem to be the odd men out"... Do you mean Atkins? Or AVery? You mentioned Atkins as being in the rotation, in which case Avery would be out, in middle relief. Or is it Avery in the rotation, with Atkins the odd man out? Shaver was very effective the second half of last year, especially at Daytona. You mention thinking he'll be highlysuccessful as a lefty reliever. Any scouting comment on that? Did he have splits or a lowish arm slot or something that makes him especially tough on lefties? Tall guy, so I'd imagine a low 3/4 slot could look pretty tough on a lefty hitter. While his size has always suggested maybe he might throw hard, the impression I've gotten is that he's a relatively soft thrower, upper 80's or so? Am I wrong on that? Again, thanks for all your info.

What kind of stuff does Teasley have? If he a big fastball type wildman, or what? Thanks much for your input.

Very true. I guess I figured that guys like Walker and Fuld aren't likely to crash into the majors as single-position starting players. Like Angel Pagan, if they are to eventually make it, it will likely be as a utility outfielder. So I didn't think there would be much problem having Fuld play LF or RF if they thought he was a significant prospect and was ready for AA, and if they thought facing AA pitching would be better for his development. Fuld, Walker, Greenberg type guys could all split up outfield time (and DH time) at AA, and all share some CF and corner OF time to prepare them as utility outfielders. Certainly the success of the minor league clubs is better served with Fuld at Daytona.

Cates was not acquired in any trade. He was simply signed as a minor-league free agent.

Yes, Petrick of course. But yeah, we knew he wasn't going to be on a roster this soon, no chance given mid-season surgery last year. There was a note in Petrick's local newspaper two weeks ago claiming that his rehab was going well, and he's on pace to begin pitching in mid-May. So I'm feeling positive about his arm, not discouraged. IIRC, it was phrased as if he might be pitching for a team in mid-May. But local reporters are often mixed up on these things, so may have actually meant he'd begin throwing off a mount or something, who knows.

Now that we have all the minor league rosters in, it's pretty interesting. Obviously each one impacts the others, so having the whole bunch allows for some observatios. *The Cubs don't seem to be rushing anybody. People used to complain about the Cubs rushing prospects. But I certainly don't see that this spring. Pawelek not in full season. Fuld moves only one level. Billek and Phelps held in A-. Layden back in A-, Estrada, Fox staying in A+. Not much rushing that I can see. *The pitching seems to be remarkably, incredibly healthy. Young pitchers in their low 20's or less are very prone to injury. I used to think that if I guessed who the best five rotation prospects would be for each level, odds were good that at least one out of five at each level would turn up unhealthy. Was it two years ago that three of our best prospects, Jones, Petrick, and Ryu were all on special arm problem schedule, Sisco's arm wasn't as strong, Vasquez had problems, and of course Guzman and Hagerty and others weren't coming back as quickly as had been projected. But this year, I can't see anybody who was thought to be healthy end of last year who's DL'd now. Of the rehab guys, marshall and Guzman and Vasquez and Hagerty are all on active rosters. Blasko, Connolly, and Ransom are the only rehabs I can think of who aren't. That's very, very good. The only position player I can think of who's missing is Kyle Reynolds. Not bad at all. *Given the generally conservative promotion schedule, those who are being jumped are more noticable. Dylan Johnston and Luke Hagerty are the most noteworthy, and Justin Berg. Holliman starting straight in A+. Hhopefully Johnston is up there because he's the real deal. Ditto for Berg. Would be great if one or both of those guys established themselves as genuine prospects. *Not sure if it's just as a roster filler, but Brett Jackson at A+ surprised me too. May be a case of they needed somebody to fill the staff, so a fringe guy pop him up, hope he can handle it and you've got a surprise, but if he gets buried, who cares. But given that there are guys like Layden and Phelps and Estrada and Billek *not* promoting to Daytona, I don't exactly see how Daytona didn't have other options. Anyway, curious. *Daytona looks much stronger than I expected. I hadn't expected any of Fox, Craig, Fuld, or perhaps even Spears to be there. Having all four of those guys at Daytona, pretty professional hitters relative to A-ball, could make that a very productive offense. Culpepper too may not have much big-league potential, but may be a plenty competitive hitter relative to A+. Daytona is my choice for the team most likely to have a winning record. Hopefully playing alongside some of those guys who take a few pitches, even Harvey will take a few more pitches? Obviously he's still pivotal, and if he again struggles to reach the .300-OBP leve they won't be a super team. But if those other guys are productive hitters, plus if Harvey could reach base more regularly and elevate into a bigger contributor, Daytona could really score a lot of runs. *With neither Pawelek nor Taylor nor the Boise SS from last year nor Yusuf Carter nor Sammy Baez making full season, Boise should have the core of a potentially strong pitching staff, and at least a couple of position players who might possibly become prospects. Assuming that got supplemented by some draft choices or perhaps a talented Latin player or two that we don't know much about, perhaps Boise will be pretty interesting too. Of course, given probably not so much help from the draft, since after the first round we won't pick till the 5th. (And first rounders usually dont spend much time at Boise, either because they don't sign till after the season. And even if they do sign quickly, they rarely spend much first-summer tiime at Boise; if HS, they're at Mesa. If a college player is good enough to be top-15 selection, he won't need more than a couple of games at Boise before promotion to full-A.)

That would indeed be very interesting. Shaver obviously profiles as a reliever long-term, and that's actually what Stockstill said about him the day he drafted him. Would be quite a story if Hagerty was able to start successfully. Heh, it's a big skip up for him, under best of circumstances. He's never pitched above short-season level, so even if this was spring 2003, jumping from short season to A+ would be an aggressive step. To jump up there after three years in which he's only pitched about 25 innings, and when he had an ERA of over 31 in his 14 innings at Boise last year with 30 walks and 9 wild pitches in 14 innings, that seems a very ambitious skip up. We'll see how he does. Would be a great story if he could handle it. May also be a case where Fleita figures he's old enough, challenge him, see what he can do, fish or cut bait. If he responds well, fantastic. If not, others from the Weber Shaver Vasquez Perez pool would be happy to replace them. (Of course, may be that one of them is already in rotation, with Berg or Holliman already in relief rather than rotation...) May also be that if Hagerty struggles, in short enough time the Cubs may be ready to bring in Blasko or Connolly or Robert Ransom from the rehab pool. Or for all I know Lee Gwaltney may be sitting in Mesa sort of on reserve.... Or, if Billek gets off to a good start at Peoria, he could promote up to Daytona and get replaced at Peoria by somebody: maybe Pawelek, or Avery, or Estrada, or somebody like that.

Thanks much, Nathan. Knowing the rotation helps, and all of those guys seem interesting. By the way, I'm pretty sure Yepez is from Venezuela, not Dominican. He was signed in Venezuela and played his first season back when the Cubs had an entry in the Venezuelan summer league. We'll be curious to here if he projects to have a big-league arm, or if he's a soft-tossing lefty prospect more in the Moyer/Rusch mode who'll need Maddux-esque control/movement to be good. The Cubs have sometimes been pretty good about projecting guys. Back in his short-season/A- days, Guzman was often written up as a "doesn't overpower" guy, with decent but nothing special velocity. The Cubs always seemed to project that he'd throw very hard in time. Hopefully Yepez the same. Teasley is a big dude. And an interesting guy. Went to a small Christian college; if they had a baseball team, I'm sure it must have competed in a very low-level college league, at best Division III or NAIA. Posters sometimes say that the cubs aren't fair to guys, the money signs and higher drafts get special treatment. But looking at opening rosters, we see Teasley (perhaps being considered for a significant role), Rapada, Shappert all as non-drafted guys who have gotten chances.

Thanks, Karen. Now that's an interesting roster, with *lots* of surprises and skips. Notes: *If Craig is there to catch, I bet he's disappointed. There are three catchers on the roster, and not many infielders. How much is the Daytona owner and GM and manager and pitchers going to want him to play catcher? Hm, should I play Craig at catcher, where's he's probably my worst catcher, and play mighty Jemel Spearman at 1B? Or play Craig at 1B and Fox or one of my other catchers at catcher? *Hagerty with a double skip! *Berg and Holliman also skipping up there. *Brett Jackson skipping up there! *Simokaitis skipping up there. *No sign of Kyle Reynolds. *Carlos Vasquez back, Blasko or Connolly not. *So, who starts? I assume Berg, Johnson, Gallagher, and Holliman. A whole bunch of former starters to contend for the last spot: Weber hagerty Vasquez Perez Shaver.... a lot of dudes heading for the bullpen.

I think Gallagher, Johnson, and Holliman are locks. I'd think Carlos Perez (??), the lefty in the Corey trade, is a good candidate. They usually like to have as many lefties as possible, and Gallagher, Johnson, and Holliman are all righties. Berg is a bit of a mystery. Having pitched only a couple of late games in full-A, and given how conservative the pitching promotions seem to be this spring, it would be a bit of a surprise if he'd be a guy to skip up to A+. Either he's hurt, skipped up to Daytona, or held back in extended spring. I suppose the latter is even less likely than skipping to Daytona, so probably Daytona or DL. I'll guess DL... Shaver may well be starting, although they may be ready to pitch him in relief sooner or later. Seemed he was mostly working relief in the exhibition games with the AA team; more likely Daytona rotation, but might be relief, too. Daytona also tends to be the place they put post-surgery guys. So it's possible that Blasko or Connolly or Vasquez or even Hagerty might be at Daytona. Will be interesting to see.

OK, sounds like it's Veal, Billek, Estrada, and Yepez. With the 5th to be determined later on. Sounds like Phelps and Sotolongo are strictly relievers.

Notes: -Sotolongo triple skipping up. -Dylan Johnston double skipping up (after being so awful in Rookie league last summer). -Pawelek not making it. -Monster man Jeff Teasley? -BA had Berg in top-25. But he's not at Peoria... Hurt? No good? At Daytona? -Stick a fork in Elvin Puello. -stick a fork in Alfredo francisco My Questions: -Veal and Billek start, that looks pretty easy to guess. -But who else? -Blackford, Avery, Atkins, Yepez, Estrada, Sotolongo, .... Who knows who'll be starting and who'll be relieving?