craig

The reports from last summer was that Luis was a natural in the outfield, and was a very good corner outfielder with a strong throwing arm. He's never had much speed, though, and I don't think has ever played any pro CF. I don't think CF is ever likely to be a position that he plays much at the big-league level. I doubt he'll ever list as a big-league team's #2 CF, much less it's #1 CF.

As of last fall, "From a reliable source..." "..2. The recap for the 22 unsigned players is as follows: ... B) The 4 unsigned players drafted from JC return to school. They are all possible D & F candidates. Brad DePoy is included in the list, even though he pitched for University of Houston in 2004, and transferred to San Jacinto JC for the 2005 season. He had some arm issues so he may be a medical redshirt, because that is the only way he can return to JC for 2006 season. C) The college choices for the 8 unsigned HS players are as follows: 20. Leonardo Ware, OF, Okaloosa-Walton (FL) CC 33. Ben Ferguson, RHP, Salt Lake (UT) CC. 41. Chris Rollins, RHP, Potomac State (W.VA) JC. 42. Josh Garza, RHP, North Central (TX) CC. 43. Michael Brenly, C, UNLV. 44. Eddie Rush, OF, Clemson. 46. Luther Murphy, 1B, Palm Beach (FL) CC. 47. Mario Williams, C, Lake City (FL) CC. The best D & F possibilities (talent-wise) for right now are O'Connell, Gilbert, Ware, and Rollins." The four JC guys were: 31 Brad DePoy rhp 9/14/1984 6-1, 205 San Jacinto (Texas) JC TX 32 Colby Wark RHP 8/12/1986 6-3, 215 Lower Columbia (Wash.) JC WA 34 Cody Gilbert 3B 8/21/1985 6-3, 185 Lincoln Trail (Ill.) JC IL 35 Drew O'Connell rhp 5/11/1986 6-3, 195 John A. Logan (Ill.) JC IL

That Florida JC league is very good. As far as JC leagues go, that's definitely one of the "major" conferences. Those are very good numbers, all except the 10 walks!

Ouch Plus the 2 HBP, this is not good for Hagerty, if there was speculation of Veal being at Daytona to start the year, it is far fetched, but someone might go up to Daytona (not necessarily Veal) to make room for a certain young lefty from Utah @ Peoria. Shaver has been perfect for 2.2 since Hagerty left, 4 K's, 4 groundouts. He was pretty much perfect pitching long in Hagerty's other start, too. Could just pop him in Hagerty's spot. Or Blasko. Or I suppose they could give Weber a shot, although he seems perhaps over his head in A+. Veal seems way wild for A-, can't see it making much sense to bump him up. Billek doesn't seem very good, struggling again tonight as a flyball pitcher with no K-stuff. Atkins and Blackford seem too young and raw to fit for a jump to A+. I don't really see anybody who's advanced enough and having success at Peoria to merit a promotion. I suppose Yepez might be the closest thing. Harvey with two more K's in his first two AB. He's got 10 K's thus far in 19AB. I know for years the hope has been that with some coaching or shortening his swing or something or other he might be salvagable. But given his arm, I wonder if it might not be a favor to him to consider moving him to the mound sooner rather than later. There had been talk that pre-draft he was viewed as having very high-round potential as a pitcher. I know it's not going to happen, and they'll let him whiff away his career for at least this year and next regardless, he's that strong when he occassionally does hit it. But it's pretty tough to see him ever hitting.

Ditto the question, jigs. I have been expecting some complexity to come out, but haven't seen any suggestion of incentives, or options, or escalation from year to year, or how many extra millions he can make if such or such. I hope we haven't heard because there isn't any such stuff. I'd as soon have the freedom to hope Lee win MVP three years straight without worrying that it will make him a free agent or cost an extra $6 per year or whatever. With you, I wonder what took so long. What "loose ends" would there be if it's a no-frills straight deal? I still suspect we may hear some of those details later on... On Neyer, I don't see how he can fuss much about a 4-year extension for an MVP-class guy who isn't old. Like duh, guys like that are going to agree to short-term deals? Not going to happen, rob. On players and managers: Obviously there are reasons why players aren't very likely to rip managers in public. But with every sports team I've ever followed, there has always been smoke about non-public dissatisfactions with managers. If players don't like a manager, they might not say it in public, but somehow it gets around, and the reporters know about it, etc.. Plus, you can often recognize the difference between token comments that are politically correct to support a manager versus those that are enthusiastically volunteered by a player, and are not provoked by a question that forces them to make statements they don't really feel, but are purely voluntary and shared by the player's own volition. I'm surprised that in three plus year hear, Dusty has gotten a *lot* of voluntary, enthusiastic support from players. And I've heard maybe one single rumor of a player being dissatisfied with Dusty. I think it's fair to say that the player appreciation for Dusty is *not* the usual thing, that it's unusually strong. It's not illogical to reason that players are stupid and selfish and don't care about winning or are too dumb to know how the manager they like is blocking the chance to win. That may be the case, I'm not saying either way. But I personally think it's being dishonest to deny that the players really do as a whole tend to appreciate Dusty much more than the average manager.

Will be interesting to see if Hagerty can bounce back and find the plate. I'd guess he wasn't so awful all spring, or he'd not be in that rotation. But having gone Blass last year, then doing so again last week, I could well imagine that playing with his mind, "Is it happening again?" and every time there isn't a pitch that goes right, he immediately degenerates into "It's happening again..." spiral. I'd think 2-4 rotten starts, and it may be pretty easy to pull the plug. They've kept saying that Blasko is all fine and good, just being extra careful. Another few weeks into the Florida spring, if Blasko really was close to 100% when camp broke, he might be a ready alternative if Hagerty dives. Hopefully it will be a non-issue, and Hagerty will show up today, and flash some 6K/1BB control and be on the road to success. But with all the pitchers they've got stockpiled, I just can't imagine there won't be somebody else who might benefit from some rotation opportunity if/when it becomes evident that Hagerty's not up for it.

Another Gallagher observation: Last year his overall GB/FB was 0.99, pretty neutral and slightly more fly-ball than normal. (The average pitcher gets more GB outs than FB outs.) But in his two starts thus far, that profile has been reversed. He was 10GB/0FB yesterday until his last inning, and on the season he's 17GB/3FB/10K. That's really, really impressive. I'm very curious about that. May be coincidence, of course. Even extreme fly-ball pitchers like Wellemeyer and Rich Hill have occassionally had strong GB games, so two games could just be coincidence. But I might guess that intelligent use of the slider might play a helpful role. If a guy is throwing a pretty sharp fastball and keeping it down and around the corners, I'd guess a pitch that looks like a not-quite-so-fast-fastball and looks like it might be coming more down-the-middle might make hitters' eyes light up and get them swinging. But when that looks-like-a-whackable-fastball slides, mixing in a dozen of those per game might get him an extra half-dozen groundballs per game, including some welcome double-play balls. Sean is also still only 20, only one full year of experience. And he's smart. So it wouldn't seem surprising is he's made some minor technical adjustments to perhaps give his fastball a little more sink or run, or to somehow stay on top of it a little bit better to keep it down and sinking.

One last short Q: Cubs have struck gold with position players (especially catchers) who have switched to pitching. (Carlos Marmol; Randy Wells; recently Oscar Bernard...) Are there any other hitters besides Bernard that you've given over to the pitching side of things this spring? Thanks!

compliments on Dylan Johnton. When Dylan struck out 24 times in 44 AB last year in Rookie League, I'd have never dreamed he'd be ready to be playing in Peoria this spring. But here he is at Peoria, and off to a fast start. Whatever help you gave him, kudos to the both of you! What kind of adjustments did you help him make? Also, Eric Patterson has been very effective, but he does strike out a lot. What do you think causes that, do you think it's correctible or just something bad that comes with the other good things he does? Thanks much.

The Cubs have some prospects who walk a lot (Sing, Patterson, Fuld, and Murton who's graduated...), but many others who walk very little (Harvey, Dopirak, Pie, and Cedeno who's graduated...). Q: To what degree do you encourage non-walkers like Pie and Harvey to take more pitches, and perhaps to value walks for their own sake as useful on-base events that can produce baserunners who can score runs? Q2: Or is encouraging taking more pitches or taking walks something you don't like to do, because it might make hitters think too much? Q3: Coaches don't want to take away the agressiveness of hitters. But are there some individual hitters who are too aggressive, and swing at too many bad balls who you encourage to harness their aggressiveness a little? Q4: Harvey has great power, but has always struggled with some extremely high K rates and low BB rates. The latter is surprising to me, since I'd expect pitchers would be especially careful about throwing strikes to such a power threat. So I'd guess pitchers throw him a lot of bad balls, and if he didn't swing at them, I'd expect a lot of walks rather than so few. From your view, what contributes to his unusual K/BB profile? Swinging at too many bad balls? Swinging at too many bad balls in part because he's struggling to read which pitches are going to be in his hitting zone and which will end up outside his strike zone? Swinging so forcefully that once he starts his swing he can't check it, even if he realizes the pitch will be at his eyes or sliding into the dirt?

Dave, thanks much for responding to our questions. Earlier you were asked about Latin position players, and you mentioned several. If willing, could you expand a bit on what type of player (and hitter) a couple project as? 1. Wilson Inoa. Fleita mentioned him with enthusiasm two winters ago, in terms of having great speed. But he's not a short little guy, I don't think. Do you project him as a slap-and-run type hitter, perhaps ala Juan Pierre? Or does he project to have some size and strength, ala Pie and Murton? 2. You mentioned 18-year-old catcher Welllington Castillo. What can you tell us about him as an athlete, a body shape, a catcher, and a hitter? If everything were to click for him, would you project him as a defense-first catcher who can also hit? (Jose Reyes, for example, would be on that side..) Or as a hit-first catcher who can also do a good job defensively (Jake Fox and Michael Barrett are probably on that side of the catcher spectrum...)

Thanks so much for the updates. Can't listen, but it's sure fun to read some of the threads, gives a feel for the games and the development. Obviously especially fun when a guy like Marmol is able to back up his strong opener with another dominant game. So, two games, 6 innings each game, no runs each game, 1 hit each game, 2 walks each game! Seems like a pretty nice pattern. 6 K's first game, 8 K's this time. Heh, that could make for a nice consistency pattern.

Mark Grace averaged 3 triples a year, and got as many as 5 four different seasons, including at age 35 when I know he was slower than slow. I wouldn't read too much speed from the fact that Harvey got 2 triples in 467 AB last year. A triple every 2-3 months doesn't require real wheels. Although the scouting reports seem to suggest that last year, he could still move around decently in the outfield, his knees didn't make him a range liability. I'm more concerned about the pitch recognition. If only... If only he could start recognizing pitches well, and hitting what he recognized, that would be awesome and he could be a force. Maybe he and Corey should be roommates someday.

One of Harvey's two hits was an infield job. In 3 games he's got 6 K's already; interestingly enough, at least two of those were taking. I don't imagine he has much pitch recognition, so maybe he can't tell what will or won't be a strike. But hopefully a couple of called K's reflect that he's taking a few more pitches this year and not swinging at everything? In two starts, Justin Berg is 0-2, and has been somewhat wild. But the interesting thing is that in two starts, his outfielders have yet to make an out. In 9.2 innings, he's scored 11 K's 18/0 GB/FB. That's some serious groundball movement! Guys with extreme groundball stuff combined with strikeout stuff, that's a pretty magic combination. Heh, of course good control would be the third aspect of the ideal magic triple, and there's little indication of that thus far. But he seems very interesting. I'd love to get an up-to-date scouting eval on him.

So, no indication from the press thing that there are any mongo incentive possibilities, or a forest of complicating contingency things or free-agency opt-outs or stuff like that? More or less a fairly straight contract? If so, that's fabulous. I am frequently interested in the repeated support that Cub players express for Dusty. Sometimes you think it's just certain players. But it seems to be an awful lot of them, and often from guys who might surprise you. Is it just the dumb players who aren't smart enough to see Dusty's flaws? No, Lee, one of the brightest guys on the team, supports him too. Murton, who seems pretty bright, speaks very positively about him. Is it just the players who have gotten opportunity or had things go right for them under Dusty? No. A guy like Walker, who has felt victimized to large extent, has spoken very positively about Dusty. Hairston, who might have felt victimized, has been a strong Dusty supporter. Etc.. Is Dusty Mr. Brainiac? Perhaps not. But it seems that most baseball players aren't either, and perhaps Dusty's level is better at getting through to them. Or maybe Cubs aren't so dumb, and see some things in Dusty relative to other managers in the industry that does make him relatively good, at least by comparison. I know this board feeds on anti-Dusty, Cubs are idiots philosophy. But it occurs to me that perhaps it's at least slightly possible the Cubs support Dusty so much because there is some basis for appreciating him? I'm not sure I've heard as much of that pro-Dusty stuff from the pitchers, I admit. So I suppose it's at least possible that it is only selective pro-Dusty voices, or that they aren't speaking from the heart but only doing the PR-correct thing. But at present, I'm inclined to believe that it's genuine.

The rumors about the Lee deal sound very favorable to me. He's a really good player right now, and a good team guy, durable, and a fine fielder. (Or at least has been to date.) The Cubs needed him to get signed, given how central he is to the middle of the lineup. To get a premium guy at a good age without gross overpay, that's excellent. at $13-14/year, that's not cheap but the market calls for that sort of thing. Hendry sustains his general record of getting pretty reasonable deals. (Alf and Jacque Jones deals being perhaps the exceptions...) Of course, all of this is premature, based on some national report of the dollars. Routinely when the real details come out, things can look very different. What I'm most interested in is whether he's got a free-agency opt-out option after a year or two. Aram's big deal, for example, was really only a one-year extension sure, but with a few dozen extra million guaranteed to ARam in case he got badly hurt or fell off a cliff. Aram can go free agent after this year if he has a good season. Lee could have gone FA after this year; will this contract give him the option to go FA after next year, ala Aram's? I hope not. On Dope: Tim is correct in that this doesn't particularly leave any doors open for Dopirak to ever become a starter for the Cubs. Not much of a factor for Dope, I wouldn't think. His issue is whether he can get to the major leagues and become good enough to possibly start in the major leagues. But that's a sufficiently improbable outcome, if he becomes good enough to be a big-league starter, he should be thrilled. If the issue of whether he starts for the Cubs or for somebody else becomes an issue, that means his career will have taken a rather pleasant turn. Remember, last year he was a bad-running, defensive butcher who had a .670-OPS and a .289-OPB while not being especially young for his league. For a good-fielding catcher, that might be one thing. For a future DH, not so good! When you adjust his OBP to factor in his GDP, his adjusted OBP is around .250! So he was kind of the Florida State League's Corey Patterson last year. I think there was some indication he might have been poised for a rebound year. And certainly given how awful he was, he needed a huge rebound to have much value. Hopefully that will happen. But he is such a long shot, and had so many flaws last year, it's hoping for a lot to imagine him growing into very serious trade value. Hope it happens. Sure seems like a nice, positive guy. Would be cool if things work out for him.

Nathan, having you give reports on these pitchers is great! What's your report on Atkins and Avery? My old notes on Avery is that when he's on, he's got an excellent, heavy sinking fastball, and in past got up around 89-91 or so for velocity. Atkins as a solid-framed guy who's fastball can max out in the 91-93 range, and has a change and curve that don't look bad but none of the three pitches was very refined in terms of location or consistency last year. The scoop I'd gotten is that he's kind of a work in progress, and part of his future depends both on getting more consistent with his location but also his fastball velocity (hitting 91-92 one day, next game perhaps no faster than 87-89), but also on the projection that given his size and youth, he might end up throwing quite a bit harder in future than he did last year. I've gotten no feedback on whether he's more a 2-seam sinker/GB guy with a lot of fastball movement, or not so much movement on the fastball or perhaps more of a flyball guy. Appreciate any early thoughts or observations! Thanks a ton.

Nathan, what can you tell us about Blackford, Sotologo, and Campusano, all of whom pitched well in yesterday's game. A friend who was at mesa late in spring mentioned Campusano as one of the most impressive guys he saw; and his debut yesterday K'ing the side in his first inning would seem to jive with that. Is he a big-league prospect with a major-league arm, or more of a guy with an average arm who'd need to have above average control or above-average breaking pitch to be an above-average big-league reliever? Sotolongo sounds like a big dude. Does he have a big power arm? Or is his fastball really good, or no faster than what 3-5 guys on any Midwest League team can do?? And how about Blackford? 2-seam Sinker/curveball guy with enough velocity on his sinker to get it in the 88-91 kind of range?

Ron, what was working for Marmol last night in the opener? Just a good game, or was he doing something different to get so many groundouts? 2. What can you tell us in terms of scouting stuff about Clay Rapada? I admit I'm surprised that he's emerged as the opening closer, since he's a lefty and already 25. He's a curiousity. Specific Q's: a) On the site I look (minorleaguebaseball), it lists him at 6'5", 180. Is he really that skinny, or is that a typically prehistoric weight listing and he's reasonably filled out by now? b) How fast is his fastball? Does he have the velocity to be a good big-league bet? c) Iheard he looked good in one inning on a WGN spring game, but I didn't see him. Does he have an ordinary delivery, or something lower that might be especially tough on lefties? Does he pretty naturally project as a big-league LOOGY? d) His career background is very unusual, if indeed he turns out to be a star AA reliever and an eventual big-leaguer. Usually any lefty who can walk and chew gum gets drafted, especially one's who are 6'5" and have any projection. Plus he was all-conference or something in one of his college seasons. yet he went undrafted. Was he injured, did he quit baseball for a while, get suspended or something, or what? Seems an unusual story. His first two pro years (02-03), there seemed no hint of potential, just a lefty roster filler: ERA over 5 as a 23-year-old in A-, and his K/IP those first two seasons was a blah 39K/64 IP, nothing to notice. Then, all of a sudden, he turned into a K-guy stud, with 91K/85IP in 04 and 61K/42IP last year, all while being an anti-HR guy besides. What happened? Why wasn't he drafted in the first place? And what flipped him from a no-K roster-filler into a high-K very effective minor leaguer? Got healthy and got fast? Dropped his arm slot and went crazy? Mastered a slider so that now he's got a knockout pitch he didn't have before? Very unusual.

Wow, very interesting details. *Thanks, Peoria, for notes on gallagher. The hesitation on him has always involved the question of whether his fastball was enough, and whether his breaking stuff will be enough versus better hitters. Related was the Q of GB/FB; last year he got a lot of outs on fly balls, I believe, and even though he didn't allow many HR's it raised the Q of whether big-leaguers might hit them. BA didn't rank his curve as all that special, either, IIRC. Last night he got a lot of GB outs, and that would jive with mixing in the slider. Being able to mix things up with the slider as well could help him a lot, especially since he seems to have the brains to probably know how to use what he has, and seems to have the control to perhaps have a shot to be able to control multiple pitches. Last night is opener, he's undoubtedly psyched to get off to a good start, his arm isn't tired yet, yada yada, so if there's any day to hit 94-95, opening day when it's not too cold is as good as there is. Still, if he can get mid-90's on a good day, then hopefully he can rest in the 89-92 range even on average days, which is more than enough for a guy with good control, good brains, and good offspeed stuff. Outshined, that's a great point about the scouting uncertainty. They always project more speed for lanky guys, and not for thicker guys. But it seems there have been many examples of guys who haven't filled out all that much who have still added velocity. If Gallagher is one, Nolasco is certainly another. His velocity seemed to increase as much or more than lots of the projection guys. It's a pretty uncertain science. CalRaisin, thanks much for the Aardsma stuff. If he's got his arm back, and his velocity is significatly upgraded from last year, that makes him a way more legit prospect. The stuff I recall from last year was mostly 88-92 range, and in fact that's what the February VineLine said about him. 88-92 is good for a control pitcher with a good breaking ball, but that ain't Aardsma! But if his velocity is back consistently in the 91-97 range, he may not need such great control to contribute in the majors. Thanks for the good news.

I don't remember. Is Blackford one of the guys who profiled asa astrong groundball guy? Nice starts yesterday. Will be interesting to get readings on some of the relievers, too. Is Rapada goign to emerge as a serious guy? Might either Sotolongo or Campusano emerge as legit prospects? Berg was mongo wildman on opener, but was 8-0 for GB/FB.

raisin, can you expand on this from the context? I know he was clocked a number of times in the upper 90's his draft year and following. Is Ron saying he's been clocked regularly in the upper 90's more recently? If so, when? This spring? Last summer when he wasn't very good? The reason I'm askin is that it seemed he looked pretty good and was throwing pretty hard in spring. But my recall from last summer was that he wasn't throwing quite that well, or that effectively. Has something changed, or not? Was he throwing regularly in 95-97 last year too, even when he wasn't much good? If so, it's obvious that his 95-97 is no more useful, short of improved movement or control, than it was last summer, and he's fringe prospect. But if the story is that something is changed, that for whatever reason last summer he was more 88-92, and now he's back to 91-97 again, then it's reasonable to think his prospects now are better than they were then. But if there's been no boost in his velocity, that's a differet story.

Excellent! That's really interesting, and hopeful news. Heh, let's hope he's not only in the rotation, but that he can succeed there. So, DJAXXFAN, now we're confirmed on all the rotations... except I'm not sure I've seen your DJaxx rotation! Did I miss that somewhere? I know Mathes, I've assumed Marmol, and since Mateo pitched five yesterday, I assume he's in. I hope Wells is in; he's young enough, looked good this spring, and was very effective in rotation for Daytona. (Although he's formerly been used in relief, so may project more as a big-league reliever if he makes the majors.) Are those right, or no? And who's #5? Pigs? Cash? Cherry?

http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/Sports/Baseball/sptCUBS02040606.htm As expected, specifies, Berg, Johnson, Gallagher, and Holliman as four of the starters. Does not specify who #5 is. I know Nathan thought that Hagerty is #5, and I hope he's correct. A friend who was at camp late last week said that Weber was starting one of their last Mesa games, though, so seems a good chance that he's #5. Before camp opened, I'd have thought Carlos Perez was a good candidate, too. Shaver is definitely in relief.

I agree. I wonder if there are some health issues with Reynolds, who I believe has a long-standing chronic injury history in college. For the pitchers, it certainly doesn't speak well for their standing in the organization. Every spring, of course, they hold a batch of older pitchers back in extended spring. Function as a taxi squad, sort of. If a pitcher in A-ball gets injured, pull somebody in their 20's up from the Mesa taxi-squad! If a pitcher in AA or AAA gets hurt, promote somebody from A+, and replace him from the taxi squad. But it probably doesn't speak too well for Dwons or Blevins or Brannon's status if they are held on the taxi squad rather than making a real roster... Of course, health may also factor. Downs has had plenty of arm problems, last year and in high school, and isn't very good to begin with. If he's not 100% physically, no surprise that he might have trouble cracking a full-seasonn team.