I think there's an important distinction to be made between the Cubs playing "over their heads", and the Cubs playing better than anyone really expected at the beginning of the year. The second part is definitely true. Even if everyone is simply producing as projected, the Cub fan in all of us couldn't have foretold that it would work out that well. In terms of overall production related to wins, any method you look at suggest the Cubs are actually playing right according to production, and the Cubs are producing about as well as predicted. Sure, DeRosa didn't decline, Theriot became more patient, and Dempster has worked out better than imagined. Also, Lilly was awful for two months, Hill isn't even in the rotation after being replaced by average innings from Gallagher, and Lee is underperforming his projections. All in all, it evens out.