The method to my madness: - The Braves, even as much as they've struggled, are still only 6 games out, and have a better run differential than the Mets. They've played better this year than the D-backs, Dodgers or Marlins. I basically put the magic number for "gonna be a stretch" at 10 games at this point. - The Cardinals, as much as they're expected to fall apart, haven't yet. Compared to the D-backs who have fallen apart but built a big enough lead that they somehow still hold a playoff spot, I believe the Cardinals are in better shape (despite a guaranteed spot out of the West anyway). - The D-backs and Dodgers, though tied for the division lead, are both playing poorly and have been unable to put any team in their division away. I also believe the Padres and Rockies are much better teams than they've been this first half, so I really think it's a 4-team race to be the least ugly team in that division. - Despite the Giants' record, their offense is pitiful, and outside of Lincecum and an occasional Cain gem, their pitching can't keep them in games forever. The fact they're only 11 games under .500 should be considered a huge success for that team. - The Reds, Pirates and Astros are still in much better shape to make a run at the wildcard than any team out of the West.