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bukie

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Everything posted by bukie

  1. Actually, in all BCS-accepted computer ratings, all that matters is winning and losing. How much a team won or lost by doesn't matter at all. Of course, that only covers 1/3 of the actual BCS rankings. The other 2/3 are covered by a coaches poll, in which what conference a team plays in matters about as much as how well a team plays in its games, and both of which matter far less than winning or losing a game. The other third? The Harris poll, which might actually be the rating which depends on scoring the most, as it's designed to be a statistically broad representation of the entire NCAA. It's still people voting, which is far less objective than running the numbers. So, in essence, a team's sole goal in a year is to make the championship game. To do that, all that really matters is to win every game. Whether a team wins 13-6 or 45-3, all that matters to conference standings and computer ratings is whether or not it was a W or an L. Conservatively, 90% of what matters to the other 2/3 of the BCS ratings is whether or not it was a W or an L. Which, really, means that for all intents and purposes all that a team should be concerned with in a game is a W or an L, since that's what will determine who plays for the championship, and who is watching. As to how that affects which team is actually better or worse, to take a sole sample of scoring differences is inherently flawed as a model, since that is not the goal of any team. Sure, better teams are more apt to win by a greater margin, and blowout wins and close losses are better signs of a good team than close wins and blowout losses, but beyond a one point victory, it really doesn't matter to a college team in the grand scheme of things, so there's absolutely no incentive to run up any score.
  2. It's a shame Florida played a perfect game up to that missed PAT, which would have won them the game...
  3. Yep, basically 6 interchangeable teams in the Big Ten this year after PSU and OSU.
  4. Illinois with a huge defensive (yes, really) play to make it essentially a 5-score game, the way it's going. EDIT: Which just furthers the idea that teams 3-8 in the Big Ten are largely interchangeable from week to week.
  5. Who's the dumbass(es) who voted OSU not in last? Pity fans.
  6. The Bears do have 3 games remaining against the top two pass defenses in the NFL, but Kyle did pretty well against the #6 defense (Minnesota, 2 TDs, 0 INT, 114.5 rating) and struggled a bit against the #4 defense (Philly, 3 TD, 2 INT, 75.6 rating).
  7. Just out of curiosity, how do you figure Northwestern, Minnesota and Iowa are "clearly" better than Ole Miss? They very well may be better, but I'm just curious how you come to the "clearly" idea. The same way he figured Purdue and UM were clearly worse. Most any indicator will tell you that Purdue and UM are worse than Ole Miss. Scarily enough, Sagarin has UM as the worst team in the Big Ten, behind Indiana.
  8. Just out of curiosity, how do you figure Northwestern, Minnesota and Iowa are "clearly" better than Ole Miss? They very well may be better, but I'm just curious how you come to the "clearly" idea. I'm looking statistically, comparing the computer rankings I know about. Minnesota, Northwestern and Iowa are in the 15-25 range in general on all of them (NW being the lowest at 30 in the Sagarin predictor). Illinois, Ole Miss and Wisconsin are in the 35-50 range in general on all of them (Illinois being the highest at 29 in the Sagarin predictor). It fluctuates a lot week to week, due to the necessarily low sample size of 7 to 9 games for everyone, but right now there's a clear difference. Being an Illinois fan, I would like to think they are a better team than Minnesota or Northwestern, but that hasn't been the case for the great majority of the year (aside from 3 quarters at Michigan and the Indiana clinic). I liken Illinois and Wisconsin as the most similar Big Ten teams to Ole Miss. Sure, they're capable of beating good teams, but for the great majority of the year, they haven't shown that capability.
  9. The thing I found most interesting about last night's NBA action: The Knicks won at home, scored 120 points, and neither Marbury nor Curry played a single minute.
  10. Also, if we're seriously doing the "Ole Miss in the Big Ten" comparison, there are clearly six Big Ten teams better than Ole Miss right now: Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa, Northwestern. Illinois/Wisconsin are in the same field, Illinois maybe a little better, Wisconsin maybe a little worse. Purdue, Indiana, Michigan are clearly worse. So, in the bottom half of the conference for sure, possibly bottom third.
  11. actually i would like to do this, let's see your comparison of team top to bottom of each conference - like rank each team in one conference from best to worst, and compare it with the team in the same spot from the other conference. Someone does that already. It's called the Sagarin conference ratings. He does two, one where the rating is weighted more to the middle teams of the conference and one where each spot in the conference is equally weighted. In the first, it goes Big XII, Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Pac 10, Big East. In the second, it goes Big XII, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Pac 10, Big East.
  12. He can post up better than Hinrich.
  13. So, which is more likely now, that the Bears give the Lions their first win, or the Bears give the Titans their first loss? :)
  14. I've been wondering for years what the Big Ten could do to make their basketball exciting, and there it is.
  15. That ad definitely makes me hope they limit Forte's carries.
  16. Why set things up to lift Pat Burrell for a defensive replacement in an AL stadium?
  17. Just put Bill Murray in the booth with Len. He's not doing much of anything these days, right?
  18. 100%, surefire way to beat the Cubs: Wait until they're in the playoffs, then show up to play them.
  19. Apparently momentum is an interchangeable word for lead in some announcing circles.
  20. how the hell is Iowa number 8? Because they've quietly played very well, and have quite a few blowout wins.
  21. You just jinxed it. He's now going to find a way to injure himself during the bye week. At that point the team might as well just hold a promotional event for the week 9 game against Detroit. First 10000 entrants get an open tryout in the secondary.
  22. Another thing I find amusing: healthiest player on the entire roster at secondary = Mike Brown.
  23. Hey, the Bears won a game with a practice squad player and Joe the Plumber playing cornerback by the end of the game.
  24. The Vikings may put up 50 this game, so I can only hope the Bears put up 51.
  25. But that one guy who has Rashied Davis starting is ecstatic.
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