Cal is probably in. Good wins are Washington, Arizona St. x2, and Murray St. Only 2 really terrible losses in Oregon State and UCLA, and 4 of their 9 losses are to probable top 3 seeds. In short, their profile is awful but I can't find enough teams to put over them. Washington and ASU (in that order) are just outside for me. The only team with really decent OOC wins is USC, which is ineligible for the postseason and finished .500 in league play. If Cal makes the conference tournament finals, then maybe I see them and the winner getting in, otherwise I think it's a one-bid year for the Pac-10.