bukie

Also, I wanted to say this now before the buzz started, but Utah State has likely lost their last game of the year. Their schedule from here on out is atrocious. This also means they lost to the only two decent teams on their schedule. So, come March, when they're like 28-2 or something crazy like that, and somehow ranked in the top 10 because that's what happens to teams that win 20 games in a row, hopefully they'll get a 10 seed.

He was talking about Villanova when he said Wildcats. Pre-season ratings may explain the difference between those 2. (Pomeroy's preseason ratings lessen with each game played until they are completely removed sometime in January.) Villanova also rates out really well in not having any sweaty goblin douchebags on their bench. Ahh, right. Too many Wildcats. Either way, the main reason the RPI gets really screwed up this early in the year is that the teams are unconnected. This means that it is currently impossible to connect any one team to any other team through games played. This causes some odd fluctuations in the teams early on, until a few games into the conference schedule. Pomeroy actually fixed that this year by using returning minutes to establish a reliable initial position for teams in the ratings in the preseason (whereas in RPI, everyone starts out blank). His game by game predictions have actually been surprisingly accurate so far this year as a result.

Don't really understand these rankings. Tennessee is #2 in the RPI, #4 in SOS, and has beaten Villanova head to head on a neutral court, yet ends up ranked 3 spots below the Wildcats? Because the RPI is completely unreliable and volatile until at least mid-January (and even then it's a lousy measure). Kentucky is #5 SOS according to Pomeroy, Tennessee is #27.

Sagarin predictor ratings - NFL style (note, the week is NOT over yet :P ): 1. Packers - 30.36 2. Steelers - 28.06 3. Patriots - 26.43 4. Jets - 26.11 5. Eagles - 25.77 6. Falcons - 25.57 7. Ravens - 25.23 8. Bears - 24.19 9. Giants - 24.00 10. Chargers - 22.97 11. Colts - 22.92 12. Saints - 22.57 13. Titans - 21.40 14. Chiefs - 21.35 15. Dolphins - 20.22 16. Browns - 20.01 17. Lions - 20.00 18. Texans - 19.65 19. Vikings - 19.01 20. Raiders - 18.79 21. Cowboys - 18.62 22. Bucs - 18.18 23. Redskins - 17.76 24. Bengals - 17.04 25. Jaguars - 16.86 26. Rams (there, finally an NFC West team) - 16.22 27. Bills - 15.78 28. Broncos - 13.93 29. 49ers - 13.49 30. Seahawks - 12.59 31. Cardinals - 7.64 32. Panthers - 7.29

Ken Pomeroy's top 25 updated through today: 1. Kansas 2. Duke 3. Ohio St. 4. Pitt 5. Washington 6. Arizona 7. Michigan St. 8. Kentucky 9. Illinois 10. Wisconsin 11. Baylor 12. Georgetown 13. UNLV 14. Purdue 15. Villanova 16. BYU 17. San Diego St. 18. Tennessee 19. Louisville 20. Florida 21. Syracuse 22. Vanderbilt 23. Kansas St. 24. Texas 25. West Virginia Notably absent: UConn (26), Memphis (29), Notre Dame (35), Missouri (36), Minnesota (42)

Yeah, I'm riding the Big 12 in every game but one this year.

It means I'm putting a lot of confidence points on Oklahoma this year.

honestly, how can anyone live in a world such as this? I think every player has to live in that world. maybe. but come on, have some shame. What do you expect? We live in an environment where everyone is a winner for participating, and if everyone just tries hard enough, they can win.

If Green Bay loses this week, 11 wins will be enough for the Bears to win the NFC North...if they beat Minnesota.

I think we can beat them, but I don't know if we will. NE is definitely scary, but they are less scary than in years past. By that I mean they've looked beatable in several games this year. I definitely respect them though and recognize that they could easily whoop us. New England is an even more bipolar Philly. Better offense, worse defense. I know the Bears won a "shootout" with Philly (one that was 31-13 before the Bears coasted the rest of the game), but I don't know how many 30 point games the offense has in them yet.

Right now, the only team in the NFL that seems scary to play would be New England. So as long as the Bears don't end up playing them...ahh, crap.

Only Denver was mathematically eliminated this week.

Manning intercepted again this time in OT.

Good news, the NFC West winner won't be 6-10!

Seattle took that game over in a hurry.

And it doesn't matter how great your escapability is when you throw of your back foot and make terrible decisions at times when you are not under pressure. Brady, Brees, and Manning will get sacked more than Jay does in this offense. But they will make up for it with better mechanics and better decision making skills. I don't read much of the Bears game threads, but you stand out quite a bit with your hatred of Cutler. I wonder if you're doing it because you actually think Cutler is bad or you enjoy arguing with the rest of the board week in and week out. I don't hate Cutler, but I do enjoy a good argument if I think I am right as most posters here do. I have the same opinion of Cutler as I do with Luol Deng. They have fantastic ability, but are too inconsistent. I am hard on Cutler because I think he can play more consistent and has the tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler and I want to see that. What I say is not too different from any major commentator. The Bears are a good to great team, but you need more consistent QB play. People don't trust the Bears totally yet, but they are beginning to beacuse Jay is playing like the QB he should have been all along. I have no complaints with Jay the last five games. They can beat anyone with this defense and Jay not turning the ball over. Granted the line has stabilized too (by which i mean they aren't getting Jay absolutely killed every game) which is obviously crucial. So you are Joe Morgan, then.

Yeah, I'm up for winning 7 more in a row.

I agree we benefit from having the Giants play 2 teams we're battling with. If they go 1-1 and we go 1-1 we're still up a game with 2 other games to go. If the Bears go 2-2, those 2 better be over Minnesota and Green Bay. If the Bears go 2-2 and the 1 of the wins is against GB, we clinch a playoff spot. Well yeah, they'd win the NFC North. Possibly would earn a 2 seed, too.

Right now, it's possible that the Bears could miss the playoffs with a 12-4 record (since they're the only team undefeated currently against the AFC). It takes a very specific scenario of the Saints, Bucs and Packers mostly winning out (Bucs over Saints in the h2h), but it's not completely outrageous.

Charger special teams continuing to redefine bad.

The Falcons still have the Panthers twice. They're not missing the playoffs. Go Falcons.

The rush by Best was inexplicable. The TD catch n run by Johnson was all Johnson.

Well, the Falcons and Bucs are playing each other. One way or another that's a loss for an NFC playoff team.

I still can't believe this team lost at home to the Seahawks and Redskins in consecutive weeks, or that challenging a fumble would have made the difference in one of them.

Next, the Bears will get the Patriots coming off a short week in a potential letdown game for them.