bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Looking at Northwestern's schedule, here are the conference games they'll have a 40% or lower chance to win: @Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota vs. Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois Here are the conference games in which they'll have a 60% or greater chance to win: vs. Iowa, PSU, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota If they don't steal one of the low percentage games, I think they'll need to sweep the remaining 5 toss-ups to make the tournament ("toss-ups" being home vs. MSU, and road games at Iowa, PSU, Indiana and Michigan). If they do steal a low percentage game, I think 9-9 or even 8-10 (depending on the game they stole) could put them in if they sweep the non-conference slate. Another interesting thought: There's a decent possibility that every Big Ten conference game Northwestern plays is tougher than any game they had in non-conference.
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Please make the tournament. They have a good chance of going undefeated in the non-conference slate, and they blew out the only name team they played thus far (Georgia Tech). Their toughest non-con game would be a potential game at Madison Square Garden against St. John's next week. To add: The toughest thing for Northwestern to do to grab a tournament spot will be stealing a home win or two against the conference upper tier (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State...they don't get Purdue at home), and getting as many road wins as possible against a conference without a really weak team (Iowa and PSU are the likely weakest, but even they aren't slouches this year). With the non-conference schedule as weak as it is, I think they'll have to go 8-10 or better in conference to get at-large consideration. Their Big Ten conference schedule works out pretty well for them, though, as they get 2 games each against Iowa, PSU, Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota, and don't travel to Ohio State.
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Ken Pomeroy mentioned on twitter this morning that he's developed an algorithm to weigh overall player performance for POY consideration. According to his algorithm, the top 5 players in NCAA basketball right now: 1. Terrence Jones, Kentucky 2. Jon Leuer, Wisconsin 3. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State 4. Jimmer Fredette, BYU 5. Kemba Walker, Connecticut
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Please make the tournament. They have a good chance of going undefeated in the non-conference slate, and they blew out the only name team they played thus far (Georgia Tech). Their toughest non-con game would be a potential game at Madison Square Garden against St. John's next week.
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The only way I could see the Bulls playing the Magic in the playoffs at this point would be one of two scenarios: 1 - Atlanta passes both of them and they meet in the 4-5 matchup. 2 - They both somehow oust Miami and Boston in the East semis and meet in the conference finals. One would be a disaster. Two I'd actually be OK with.
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107-78. In Chicago. On Boozer's first game back. But yes, I'm sure Orlando is 30 points a game better than Chicago at all times, and there is no chance the Bulls could finish higher in the East. I'm sure a full game of Carlos Boozer makes a 30 point difference. Of course not, but it's still just one game.
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107-78. In Chicago. On Boozer's first game back. But yes, I'm sure Orlando is 30 points a game better than Chicago at all times, and there is no chance the Bulls could finish higher in the East.
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This week Minnesota, Washington and Cleveland were eliminated from playoff contention.
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Coming into today, here were the East rankings by Sagarin predictor: 1. Boston - 99.26 2. Miami - 98.86 3. Orlando - 94.08 4. Chicago - 93.23 5. Atlanta - 92.11 6. Indiana - 91.95 7. Philadelphia - 90.39 8. New York - 89.99 9. Milwaukee - 88.95 10. Toronto - 87.70 11. Charlotte - 87.07 12. New Jersey - 85.14 13. Detroit - 83.33 14. Washington - 82.73 15. Cleveland - 81.45 Already, Boston and Miami have separated themselves from the pack, and it looks like only complacency by one of them would allow any other team to sneak into a top 2 spot. So, the best case scenario for Chicago would appear to be the 3 seed, which would allow them a somewhat easier first round matchup, but still require them to beat likely both Boston and Miami to even reach the finals.
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Honest question for those with a non-Bulls slant: when you watch Rose play, does he really avoid contact like no other player in the NBA, or is he just not getting superstar foul calls?
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Maybe. However Iowa was actually a pretty good team, albeit one who was clearly struggling at the time. Illinois is an average team, but the fans probably thought the team was better than they were at the time, which is what made the loss so stunning (if it wasn't stunning enough to be the first d1a team to lose to Minnesota all season). Of course, that's hardly the first Zook-like loss in the tenure... 2009: Beaten easily by a terrible Indiana team for IU's only win in 2 years (until the PU win this year) 2007: Home loss to average Iowa team prevents Illinois from winning Big Ten (this is the year they won at Ohio State to prevent them from being in the National Championship game). 2005: Losing 61-14 to a 2-6 MSU squad to kick off the Zook regime.
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On the plus side, starting next year IU will be among the Big Ten leaders for the first time in 40 years.
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Still think Illinois losing, at home, on senior day, to a Minnesota team that just jettisoned its coach and hadn't won a Big Ten game in over a year was worse.
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When they make a trophy commemorating the most inexplicable loss of the Big Ten season.
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Two things I misread: - Tampa doesn't have to beat the Saints to go 10-6 (for some reason I thought they were 8-6, not 8-5). - Assuming the Saints grab a WC spot, only one of Tampa-GB/Chi loser-PHI/NYG loser makes it, not two (I forgot to count the Saints..or the NFC west). So it's still a decent possibility. Still helpful for all non-Giant fans for the Giants to lose.
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The chances of all 3 games of NE-GB, NYG-PHI and TB-NO going the way they need to for a 10-6 team to miss the playoffs is under 10%. Couple that with all the other, even likely, occurrences in other games (MIN over CHI, NYG over GB, TB over SEA, GB over CHI), and the number gets really low.
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It might be better for the Packers to rest Rodgers and "punt" this week than to play him, likely lose anyway, and risk knocking him out for the last two weeks, which are much more important games.
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Also, if the GIants lose to Minnesota tonight, the chances of a 10-6 team missing the playoffs becomes almost zero.
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If GB loses to NE and the Giants, the Bears still win the division with just the Jets game.
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I wonder if people are just going to call them the Ohio State and Michigan divisions, since that was the whole reason they ended up the way they did.
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With those names, I'd almost have preferred they named the divisions "Big" and "Ten".
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In theory. But a loss next week really makes it tough. Green Bay may lose next week, but they are likely to win their last 2 games. The Bears should be the fully exposed Jets at home the day after Christmas, but they will probably lose at Green Bay. So if they lose to Minnesota as they usually do, Green Bay is still in position to take the division and Chicago will likely miss the playoffs with the Giants and Saints most likely to take wild card spots. I think it comes down to this game, regardless Green Bay's result in New England. I don't know how you can assume anything about what games Green Bay will win at this point. 1) They couldn't move the ball at all vs the Lions when Rodgers was in there. 2) You don't know what Rodgers status is at this point. Two concussions in the same season can't be good. I heard so much last week about how Green Bay would beat Atlanta on a neutral field, but then they lose to Detroit? Seems to me they're just as inconsistent as every team not named the Patriots. I didn't realize I needed to add the caveat "if Rodgers is playing".
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Well, as miserable as that debacle was yesterday, the Bears are still in good shape for the playoffs, thanks to Detroit. Win next week, and it's all but wrapped up.
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I don't think the Bears are particularly well-built for these kind of weather situations.
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Now next week's game is huge. Also, if they win this week, next week clinches the division.
