bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Lose to the Bears and you still have a chance if NO and WAS win.
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Wasn't it enough that you embarrassed us once at home already? You won on a last-second FG. It's not like you won by 4 TD's. I stand behind everything I said Week 3, so I won't rehash it here. Even with all the penalties and such the Bears still had their hands full all game long. We can beat the Bears in Chicago or Green Bay. Bring them on. Nothing would be sweeter than ending their season on their home field and sending all the Bears fans home crying. In Chicago or Green Bay huh? Tought talk considering the Packers already lost in Chicago. Can you beat the Bears anywhere else? How about in Detroit? Or are the Lions the only team you have trouble with there? Don't be modest, they had trouble with the Lions in Green Bay as well. They won there because the Lions punted late in the 4th quarter from the GB 37 and never ended up getting the ball back, despite dominating yardage and time of possession, due to penalties and special teams blunders. So, by erik's definition, the Lions embarrassed the Packers in Green Bay.
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Wasn't it enough that you embarrassed us once at home already? You won on a last-second FG. It's not like you won by 4 TD's. I stand behind everything I said Week 3, so I won't rehash it here. Even with all the penalties and such the Bears still had their hands full all game long. We can beat the Bears in Chicago or Green Bay. Bring them on. Nothing would be sweeter than ending their season on their home field and sending all the Bears fans home crying. In Chicago or Green Bay huh? Tought talk considering the Packers already lost in Chicago. Can you beat the Bears anywhere else? How about in Detroit? Or are the Lions the only team you have trouble with there? At least we can beat the Lions at home without the help of some BS "completing the catch" rule. Yep, the only time the Packers won a close game this year.
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Stop that, reverse it, and now it actually applies to a game that will actually be played!
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The Bears have the #1 special teams unit in the NFL, which means more than many think. Their return and coverage teams are far and away better, their kicking game is above average (yesterday aside), and that more than covers for their below average punter. As for defense, prior to this week they were excellent both against the pass and the rush (actually slightly better against the pass). Both ratings will undoubtedly take a hit after this week, but they've still been very good overall defensively. Offensively, they were awful for four straight games, two of which were Todd Collins-led catastrophes (NYG-Carolina), and two of which were somewhat-concussed Cutler disasters (Seattle-Washington). Aside from that, the offense has actually been above average in the passing game and average in the rushing game. Counting just since the bye, the Bears' passing game has been top 10 in the NFL (rushing average).
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Other reasons to feel better about the Bears: - Yesterday's loss by the Jets was only their second road loss all year (NE the other), and they were coming off a win in Pittsburgh the previous week. Hardly a game you'd consider "exposing" the Bears. - The Bears win in Detroit looks better every week considering the Lions haven't lost since, and the 4-point margin was actually their second-largest of the season at home (again, NE the other). - Looking at Sagarin's ratings, the Bears have the second-best record in the NFL against the top 10 (3-2) and top 16 (6-2) teams (do I even need to mention who was better?). - The Bears currently sport the best road record in the NFC, tied with Miami and Pittsburgh for best in the NFL at 6-1.
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The silliest thing about that article is he only counts marquee games as the ones in which the Bears looked bad. Philly and Green Bay? Don't count. Miami on a Thursday? Nope. Minnesota on a Monday night? Wrong again. The other most stupid point was in saying the Bears defense needed the other team to make mistakes to win...which is basically the entire scheme of the defense.
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He'll probably have to at least make the NFC championship for that to happen. Losing, say, consecutive games to Green Bay next week and in the first playoff round would not look good.
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Granted on NE, but is giving up 27 points horrible? It's certainly not great, but I think horrible is overstating it. When Sanchez was throwing correctly, it was horrible. In the second half, Sanchez was off with his throws, and a couple of WR drops saved some possessions for the D.
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I'm also curious how much the field conditions contribute to both sides of failure: the front 4 can't get to the QB, and the defensive backfield can't recover in time to close the holes in the zone that passes are thrown to. The Bears should get to installing field turf today, to get it ready in time for the playoff game.
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They've been playing that ridiculous soft zone with the safeties 25 yards deep ever since it worked like a charm in the Philly game. When the opposing QB makes mistakes, it works like a charm (see Minnesota game). When the opposing QB is patient and has time to throw, and doesn't make mistakes, it doesn't work at all (NE/NYJ games, first half). Sanchez had probably the best game of his career yesterday, and ate up the pass D in the second quarter. It's almost as if the Bears are defending like they'll have time to recover on holes in the zone, and not realizing that with the weather conditions as they have been the last 3 weeks, they can't unless the QB throws poorly (which happened a lot in Minnesota, and in the second half of the Jets game).
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It's the only game that is meaningful regardless of other games that are played earlier in the day. I know that, but given how terrible St. Louis and Seattle are, I figured NBC would find Chicago-Green Bay more enticing. I'm almost positive STL-Seattle tanks in the ratings. If the Chicago-Green Bay game features a Flynn-Collins QB matchup, it might actually be a worse game than STL-Seattle.
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FO's comments on Jets-Bears:
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Apparently Peter King has no idea how the NFC playoff picture will work next week if New Orleans loses tonight. So, here are the scenarios IF Atlanta beats New Orleans tonight: 1 ) NO over TB, GB over CHI - New Orleans 5, Green Bay 6, NYG result meaningless 2 ) NO over TB, CHI over GB, WAS over NYG - New Orleans 5, Green Bay 6 on Strength of Victory 3 ) NO over TB, CHI over GB, NYG over WAS - New Orleans 5, NY Giants 6 4 ) TB over NO, GB over CHI, NYG over WAS - Green Bay 5, NY Giants 6 (TB common games over NO, GB wins SOV over NYG/TB, NYG wins common games over TB) 5 ) TB over NO, GB over CHI, WAS over NYG - Green Bay 5, Tampa Bay 6 (TB common games over NO, GB SOV over TB) 6 ) TB over NO, CHI over GB, NYG over WAS - NY Giants 5, Tampa Bay 6 (TB common games over NO, NYG common games over TB) 7 ) TB over NO, CHI over GB, WAS over NYG - Tampa Bay 5, New Orleans 6 (TB common games over NO)
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It's the only game that is meaningful regardless of other games that are played earlier in the day. Of course, if New Orleans loses tonight, the New Orleans-Tampa Bay game will be meaningful regardless of other results, too.
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The Bears are a dome team stuck playing outdoors. That's the best thing about the last 3 weeks though. I think they've learned how to play in the snow. I was just going to go with "ridiculously easy road schedule". Road wins: Dallas, Carolina, Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, Minnesota. Not exactly murderer's row, there.
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Of course, most of this is a moot point since in all likelihood Atlanta will win one of the next two games, but here are the various tie-breaker scenarios involving the Bears: CHI-ATL - Chicago 1 (common opponents), Atlanta 2 CHI-PHI - Chicago 2 (head-to-head), Philly 3 CHI-NO-ATL - New Orleans 1(wins division on div record, 1 seed on conference record), Chicago 2, Atlanta 5 CHI-ATL-PHI - Atlanta/Philly 1 (strength of victory, which Bears can't win), Chicago 2 (once top team is discovered, tiebreakers start over again and Bears win over either ATL/PHI) CHI-NO-ATL-PHI - New Orleans 1 (win division on div record, 1 seed on conference record), Chicago 2, Philly 3, Atlanta 5
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Three or more teams not in the same division: 1 ) Conference record 2 ) Common games between teams (minimum 4) 3 ) Strength of victory 4 ) Strength of schedule. 5 ) Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 6 ) Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. 7 ) Best net points in conference games. 8 ) Best net points in all games. 9 ) Best net touchdowns in all games. 10 ) Coin toss. In the ATL-PHI-CHI 3-way tie, conference record would be the same and there aren't enough common games among them for that to count. So, on to strength of victory. In the case of a NO-PHI-CHI 3-way tie, NO has the better conference record and gets the 1 seed. Also of note: no matter how the ties play out, Chicago is at worst a 2 seed with a win.
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Also, the NFC West play-in game is being flexed to Sunday night next week, because any other game could potentially be meaningless by the time it's played.
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Just because I think it's a little funny, it's still remotely possible for Philly to snag the 1 seed. Here is every result that needs to happen for this to occur: - NO over ATL - PHI over MIN - PHI over DAL - CAR over ATL - TB over NO - CHI over GB - PIT over CLE - NYG over WAS - IND over TEN - SF over ARI If all ten games go the right way, it creates a 3-way tie at 12-4, with the tiebreaker going to strength of victory, and if all those other seemingly meaningless games go that way, Philly wins the strength of victory tiebreaker. EDIT: Bah, Philly beat Atlanta, so they win the tiebreaker in a 2-way tie as well if Chicago loses. Still, this would be funnier.
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Also, in the "meaningless to everyone but me" stats, if the Bears win next week, while the Dolphins and Steelers lose, the Bears will finish the season with the single best road record in the NFL.
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Of course, the Bears don't have to be concerned about a playoff game at Qwest this year. And there's no way they'd lose at home to the Seahawks....again...
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There's also a potential scenario that earns Tampa Bay the 5 seed, so a 1 seed could potentially face the NFC West/Tampa winner. Which would be Atlanta in that scenario, but hey.
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It's also still possible that both the Packers and Giants make the playoffs if the Bears lose next week. I'd rather they just win and let the other teams do what they may.
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The other interesting game next week could be Tampa-New Orleans, which if the Saints lose tomorrow is an elimination game.
