bukie

Why is Puka trying to speed run Antonio Brown's career?

Caleb Williams 242 yard passing day vaults him into #10 all time in Bears career passing yards, passing Justin Fields.

The Panthers were swept by the Saints this season. They are also still tied for a playoff spot in the NFC South.

If the Bears win out, they will be at worst the 2 seed, and would need just the winner of next week's Rams-Seahawks game to drop 1 of their other 3 games to get the 1 seed.

Both sacks today involved Garrett going through essentially untouched by Trapilo. It's Garrett, but you need to at least get one bump on him.

I wager if he throws the ball at that point it's not ruled as forward progress stopped.

The fan base seems to have suddenly gone nuts after the last few weeks. They just went 3-1 in a stretch where 2-2 would have been considered a win for the franchise, and the loss was on a last second play that was there. Caleb continues to throw the ball in places where it won't result in a pick, and is releasing the ball in time and quickly enough to avoid almost any sacks. It's much preferable to the alternative of taking 2-3 extra sacks per game just to keep the completion % up.

It was pretty obvious they were going to go for 2 there had they scored. They weren't rushed on the 4th down play, they went for the TD on a play where the Packers were all in defending the run. It just didn't work. Good plays don't work all the time.

Last call was solid. 4th and 1 with 14 seconds left, they need a TD. If they get the first there they'll have maybe 7 seconds left and there'll be 8 defenders in the end zone. The play was there, Caleb tossed it a touch late and a touch underthrown. As for why they let so much time come off the clock there, they wanted to make sure there wasn't any time left for the Packers after a score. Again, logic was there, what they were doing made sense.

Is Lamar Jackson broken now?

2 of the last 3 years, Alabama has been the beneficiary of some very shady logic by the selection committee. The year they didn't, they cried foul and then lost to a terrible Michigan team in a bowl.

I think this game is largely a must-win for GB, more so than the Bears, just because due to the current standings the Bears splitting the two GB games keeps the Bears in first with 3 games left, 2 at home, with both teams having similar closing schedules. If the Bears win this game, they're effectively 2 games up with 4 to play, 3 at home. If the Packers win this game, they're 1 game up with 4 to play, 1 at home, and still go to Chicago.

That's just because the committee is a worthless group of lying hucksters trying to shill for the SEC time and time again. Once more, Alabama undeservingly gets the benefit of the doubt despite doing nothing to earn it, and it doesn't matter how many teams make up the playoffs.

Neither offense is showing much today. Georgia has taken advantage of two turnovers.

Here's what I think WILL happen: - If Duke wins tonight, JMU and Tulane will get into the CFP, and the committee will put Miami in so there is ACC representation. If Virginia wins, it'll be Virgina and Tulane with ND getting in. - Georgia will get the 2 seed with a win, and the OSU-Indiana loser will get the 4 seed. - If Georgia blows this, the committee will move Bama all the way up to the 4 seed because reasons. Here's what I think SHOULD happen: - Indiana-Ohio State should be 1-2 regardless of tonight's result. - ND and Miami are the best 2 loss teams by most empirical ratings, they should both get in. - Tulane and JMU are better than either team in the ACC championship, so they should both get in no matter what the result of that game is. - Georgia and Texas Tech should get the other byes due to winning conferences, but I think TT is the better team and should be #3. - Oregon, Texas A&M and Ole Miss should be locks. Last spot should be up for discussion between OK, Bama, Vandy and Texas. 4 teams should be plenty fair for the conference.

I remain convinced that the SEC has a bunch of good teams, but no great teams. I hate that the committee somehow made this about ND/Miami and not 6 SEC teams that are varying levels of good. I have a feeling that if Duke wins, they'll put Miami in so there's an ACC team in the playoff. If Virginia wins, they'll put ND in. What I'd like to see is having ND and Miami both in, 3 B1G teams and TT with byes, Tulane and JMU in (I think they're both better options than Virginia too). 4 spots left for the SEC, and you could easily say A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss belong, and then choose your 4th between Bama, OK, TX, and Vandy (obv if Bama wins the convo is simple)

On the plus side, it looks as if the Bears will have actual LBs on the field, so the defense should be as healthy as it's been all year. Not sure it's still actually good, but it's basically as good as it'll be with Edwards, Sewell, Johnson, Gordon, Wright, Byard and Brisker in the defensive backfield.

The Patriots are very good. Their schedule is a once in a century parade of bad teams. They get the AFC North on a down year, the NFC South on a typical year, the AFC East when Miami and the Jets are awful, and the Raiders, Giants and Titans. Going by ELO ratings, they play each of the 9 worst teams in the NFL, and 10 of the worst 11. Two of those are within the division, so that's 12 of the games on their schedule. They also play #18, #15 and #13, which leaves just 2 games against a team in the top 12 (Buffalo).

Bears' week to week DVOA: Pretty steady improvement from the Baltimore game on, just need to get the passing game clicking.

More flaws, maybe, but less serious flaws in my mind. Maybe it's a last year bias somewhat with the Chiefs, but all these teams I feel like have the ability to flip a switch yet and make the Super Bowl, whereas with teams like the Eagles, Broncos, Pats and even Bears, I just don't get that feeling yet (yes, I know the Eagles won the Super Bowl last year, but they looked unstoppable from the middle of the season on, and right now they just don't). It doesn't really matter a ton, though, I just like to group teams into tiers based on my confidence level in them, and then sort them in there to do rankings, makes it easier to compartmentalize for me.

Flip side is if the Bears can win, they keep the 1 seed, open up the division lead, and end the season with 3 of 4 at home.

Here's how I see the NFL after 13 weeks (with DEN-WAS and NE-NYG left to play): Tier 1: Super Bowl favorites 1. LA Rams (9-3) - Loss this week where they gave the ball away 3 times, but felt like they had lapped the field coming in, so still #1 2. Seattle Seahawks (9-3) - Dominated the Vikings, lost to the Rams in a close game where they gave the ball away 3 times, think LA's offense is slightly better. Tier 2: Super Bowl contenders 3. Buffalo Bills (8-4) - I know, they aren't leading their division and lost to NE. However, they're still the scarier team and would be my AFC favorite as of right now. Need the D to show a little more to make them a SB favorite. 4. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) - If they played every week like they played Detroit, they'd be top tier. Still prone to a stinker week, and can establish themselves as a favorite over a tough closing stretch. 5. Detroit Lions (7-5) - Still feels like this team should be better than it's been. Done playing the Packers, at least, could make a run to close the season to get into the playoffs on a scary note. 6. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) - Dominant team that just can't win close games this year. It's been wild, and if they can somehow sneak into the playoffs, tell me that they can't win the AFC. Tier 3: Good teams with a huge question to answer yet 7. Denver Broncos (9-2) - They're going to win the AFC West and beat the Chiefs. Still don't trust the offense. 8. Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) - Speaking of offenses I don't trust. Defense has dominated in games not involving the Bears. 9. Houston Texans (7-5) - Ok, we've got a theme now. Dominant defense, shaky offense. Better of late, probably the best team in a surprisingly good AFC South. 10. San Francisco 49ers (9-4) - They do have wins over the Rams and Seahawks, the only team that can say that. Brock Purdy might be bad, though. CMC might be enough to carry them, though, but they don't have a dominant defense to lean on if Purdy digs them a hole. 11. New England Patriots (10-2) - Yes, it seems low considering how good Maye has looked. However, their schedule has been and will continue to be paper soft. They beat Buffalo, Tampa and the Panthers before Carolina woke up. Other than that they have losses to the Raiders and Steelers, and wins over Cleveland, Cincy, Miami, Atlanta, New York Jets, Titans and Saints. 12. Baltimore Ravens (6-6) - Inexplicable blowout loss to the Bengals, and Lamar Jackson looks lost. If he can find it, they'll win the incredibly weak AFC North and have looked really good since their bye week. 13. Chicago Bears (9-3) - They're getting better, and their defense is getting healthier and their offense is getting smoother. They're the first team to make Philly's defense look ordinary, which is something. Gotta beat the Packers to really move up a tier. 14. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) - Their defense is just OK, and their offense has dropped off a cliff from the first half of the season. Lost control of the division and may not make the playoffs at this rate. Tier 4: OK teams that might make the playoffs anyway 15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) - They squeaked by the Cardinals to keep the division lead. Mayfield hasn't kept up the momentum from early in the year, and I'm not sure they scare anyone going into the playoffs. 16. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) - They could still win the AFC North. They have a terrible pass defense and a bottom-third offense. Aaron Rodgers is both bad and hurt. 17. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) - Your new leader in the AFC South. Defense is very good, offense is very meh. Can they hold off the Colts and Texans? 18. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) - How is this team 8-4? They did beat the Chiefs and Broncos early in the year, and were blown out by the Commanders and Jaguars. They're just kind of okay everywhere, which might be enough to squeak into the playoffs? 19. Carolina Panthers (7-6) - Hey, they beat the Rams and are just a half game out of first. They were SO BAD in the first half of the season, though, I wonder if they have enough in them to rally to make the playoffs. 20. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) - They were a half of football away from being effectively eliminated last week, but have played their best 6 quarters of football in the last week to beat Philly and Kansas City. Still very bad defensively, but are good enough offensively to steal some wins (and already have!). Don't see them doing enough to pass enough NFC North/West teams to get a wildcard, but if Philly falls apart, who knows? Tier 5: Bad teams that are still trying 21. Miami Dolphins (5-7) - Beat the Bills after being left for dead, so they're just frisky enough to maybe steal one or two coming down the stretch here against the Pats or Bills. Not close to a playoff contender, though. 22. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) - Joe Burrow is back. Their defense is about the worst in history. In a very weak AFC North, that's just enough for them to be exciting to finish the season. 23. Atlanta Falcons (4-8) - If Drake London can get healthy enough to play, they could potentially still steal some wins. Don't think there's enough there to sneak into the playoffs at, like, 7-10 though. 24. New York Giants (2-10) - Just decimated by injuries, and they continue to blow 4th quarter leads. Still giving every team a game, though. 25. Cleveland Browns (3-9) - The defense is good, but if the offense is non-existent, they just get tired and run out of gas late in games. Tier 6: Bad teams that aren't trying, but probably won't get the #1 pick 26. Minnesota Vikings (4-8) - The bottom has fallen out. JJ is bad, and everyone else is worse. Jefferson is checked out and just trying to stay healthy . 27. Washington Commanders (3-8) - Jayden Daniels is broken. The defense is bad. Not sure where they'll go from here. 28. Arizona Cardinals (3-9) - Bad offense, disappointing defense, just no plan for success here. Tier 7: Race for the #1 pick 29. New York Jets (3-9) - Won today to likely take them out of the running, but traded away half their defense to make sure they stay in the hunt for #1. 30. New Orleans Saints (2-10) - Lost a close one to Miami today, have only cleared 20 points twice this season. 31. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10) - Geno Smith and Pete Carroll haven't made the difference. Scored 10 or fewer points in 5 games this year. 32. Tennessee Titans (1-11) - Cam Ward hasn't been bad, but...everyone else has been. At least before today the games had been closer lately.

I'll give Brosmer credit, he's doing his best to make JJ look like a good option.

So, the last two periods were progression to the mean?