mg420

Your continued attempts to somehow compare Hill and Theriot are completely nonsensical. Again, stop ignoring Theriot's career numbers. They'll tell you a LOT more about him than this tiny burst of power hitting over the last 2-3 weeks. blah blah blah. if u didnt know talent when you saw it with hill why should theriot be any different?

So did Cedeno last year. I just can't take him seriously, the comparison is too apt. there is a slight difference between cedeno's .731 in 80 ab's last year and ryans .961 in 99 ab's. this guy is the real deal imo and it just took getting playing time in the majors for him to shine. there is no doubt that he is way overachieving now but there are not many (if any) holes in his game imo. he seems to be very solid all the way around. He has NO history of power in the minors. Not even ANY. I'm all for having him on the bench next year as a Neifi! type player, but his power stroke is really a fluke when compared to his minor league numbers. That would be the one major error in his game. I know it looks like he put it all together, but again I'll point to Cedeno last year. Looks can be deceiving. i dont consider lack of power an "error" for a 2b. if he can hit around 10 a year it would be fine. he can certainly get on base (ie take walks) unlike cedeno.

weren't you some of the people trying to trade hill for a bag of baseballs a few weeks ago?

So did Cedeno last year. I just can't take him seriously, the comparison is too apt. there is a slight difference between cedeno's .731 in 80 ab's last year and ryans .961 in 99 ab's. this guy is the real deal imo and it just took getting playing time in the majors for him to shine. there is no doubt that he is way overachieving now but there are not many (if any) holes in his game imo. he seems to be very solid all the way around.

theriot for 2b in 2007!

Marshall and Mateo have done nothing to indicate they could outperform Padilla next year, and neither is a safe bet for 200 IP (probably Hendry's biggest desire). I'd be happy with giving Padilla a 3/21m deal, it's not like his signing will mean there is no room for anybody else. Even if he's here, there would be 2 spots open. The Cubs can't ignore other pitchers because of the guys they already have. and padilla is? i beg to differ. they can however avoid overpaying for often injured veteran's when they have plenty of talent in the system ready to contribute. That was the plan this year and it didn't work. There's a difference between having arms that are ready to contribute, and having arms that can go give you 32 starts 200 IP and a 4.00 ERA. If you're going to ignore what I said about Padilla's injury fine, but he's a much better bet to go 200 solid innings next year than Mateo or Marshall. It's not even close. But even if you have to combine starts from Mateo and Marshall to get to the 200IP, would they perform any worse? I think so, but it's not a completely sure thing. I think something that is being ignored, or at least glossed over, is the fact that the Cubs have numerous rotation holes to fill. They've got Zambrano and Hill, then 3 questions. If you signed Padilla, or something similar, you'd still have 2 spots open, not to mention a need for a 6th, or maybe 7th capable starter to call-up from the minors. Even if you get a healthy Prior back, there's still a spot for the imagined Marshall/Mateo combination. I've been assuming that Padilla would be the second starter that you sign. I'm assuming the Cubs have to go after one of the troika (Zito, Schmidt, Daisuke) as the starting point. So, if you have Z, Hill, (one of the above) as your top 3, then you're looking at the bottom two spots as some combination of Prior, reasonably cheap FA innings eater, youngn's. And the list of possible young pitchers is quite long with Marshall, Marmol, Mateo and Guzman along with outside chances of someone stepping up this coming spring like Ryu or Gallagher. Personally, I'm hoping that Guzman steps up and really locks down one spot because he's the most capable guy out there. I think the Cubs would be best served by investing heavily in an ace-caliber guy and lightly in a Jason Johnson-type for the back end. Then you hope that between Prior and the young pitchers you have enough guys step up that Johnson gets DFA'd. Prior is the whole key to our pitching staff. Z is great, Hill looks very good, we will try to add one of the top 3. If Prior can become even near the '03 version of himself we should have a very good rotation again. i second that assesment. if he can stay healthy, Z, prior, hill, marshall & mateo would make a formidable rotation imo.

The only thing Pierre has is speed. But he needs it because he doesn't get good jumps, nor take good routes. I really don't think he covers much more ground than what Jones would cover. Certainly not enough to offset the offensive difference. I hate defensive metrics, but according to Chris Dial at BTF, Pierre's been the best defensive CF in the NL this year, which since it matches my opinion of this year, I"ll reference it :) besides the range factor, pierre has zero errors and jones has 7. aside from pierre's arm (which is not much if at all worse than jones's) he is one of if not the best in cf this year. he doesnt get the recognition because he doesnt make the hot dog type plays like edmunds does.

Marshall and Mateo have done nothing to indicate they could outperform Padilla next year, and neither is a safe bet for 200 IP (probably Hendry's biggest desire). I'd be happy with giving Padilla a 3/21m deal, it's not like his signing will mean there is no room for anybody else. Even if he's here, there would be 2 spots open. The Cubs can't ignore other pitchers because of the guys they already have. and padilla is? i beg to differ. they can however avoid overpaying for often injured veteran's when they have plenty of talent in the system ready to contribute. That was the plan this year and it didn't work. There's a difference between having arms that are ready to contribute, and having arms that can go give you 32 starts 200 IP and a 4.00 ERA. If you're going to ignore what I said about Padilla's injury fine, but he's a much better bet to go 200 solid innings next year than Mateo or Marshall. It's not even close. unless you are an MD, i dont see what good it does to speculate about his injury and the effect it has had on his pitching the last 3 years. i guess just like in so many other cases we will agree to disagree.

You simply can't put that type of comparison on a player who has only been this productive in such a short amount of time. This is just as bad as being overly judgemental of Hill's small sample of poor major league outings. perhaps, but you also cant overlook what he's done and relagate him to a utility role either imo.

Theriot just isn't at that level, I'm afraid. just as with hill and murton, only time will tell if he is or isnt.

I can see that approach being used in a mid or low market team. But I don't see the Cubs or any other large market team gambling on more than one young non-stud position player in the everyday lineup (the Mets with Reyes and Wright are an exception, because those two are exceptional players). The Cubs will be expected to reload instead of rebuild. In other words, I think Murton has an edge over Theriot as that one guy to gamble on, unless Murton pushed out for a power LF. Then maybe Theriot gets the job. In order to consider both Murton and Theriot, you'd have to really improve SS and CF, but the market for those positions is tighter than LF and 2B, and the current GM has a love affair with guys already on the roster at those positions (Izturis and Pierre). if thats the way the cubs think they they deserve to lose. they only thing they should be "expected" to do is win. if they havent learned yet that they arent going to win by signing high priced free agents instead of looking to their own system, there is little hope for the future imo. You have to balance the two. The Cubs have a high payroll, and it would be foolish for them not to use it. They can be more efficient by spending big in certain areas if they go young in others. With Hill/Marmol/Marshall/Guzman/Mateo competing for a rotation spot, Murton a strong possibility to be a full-time starter, and Pie ready/nearly ready for the big leagues, there's not a lot of need to overslot a utility guy into 2B and leadoff. thats true-but i dont think theriot is just a utlility player (unless you consider guys like marcus giles, loretta & freel utility players).

Marshall and Mateo have done nothing to indicate they could outperform Padilla next year, and neither is a safe bet for 200 IP (probably Hendry's biggest desire). I'd be happy with giving Padilla a 3/21m deal, it's not like his signing will mean there is no room for anybody else. Even if he's here, there would be 2 spots open. The Cubs can't ignore other pitchers because of the guys they already have. and padilla is? i beg to differ. they can however avoid overpaying for often injured veteran's when they have plenty of talent in the system ready to contribute.

I can see that approach being used in a mid or low market team. But I don't see the Cubs or any other large market team gambling on more than one young non-stud position player in the everyday lineup (the Mets with Reyes and Wright are an exception, because those two are exceptional players). The Cubs will be expected to reload instead of rebuild. In other words, I think Murton has an edge over Theriot as that one guy to gamble on, unless Murton pushed out for a power LF. Then maybe Theriot gets the job. In order to consider both Murton and Theriot, you'd have to really improve SS and CF, but the market for those positions is tighter than LF and 2B, and the current GM has a love affair with guys already on the roster at those positions (Izturis and Pierre). if thats the way the cubs think they they deserve to lose. they only thing they should be "expected" to do is win. if they havent learned yet that they arent going to win by signing high priced free agents instead of looking to their own system, there is little hope for the future imo.

Well, they want somebody who is a decent bet at 200 innings. Padilla was a reliever, then turned into a 200 IP guy overnight. I believe that quick increase in workload played a part in his 2004/2005 setbacks, as he was always hindered by nagging type injuries, as opposed to TJS season ending stuff. From what I remember, he was having triceps issues and groin issues, but not major shoulder and/or elbow problems. I think he's quite capable of giving a team 115 or better ERA+ next year over 200 innings, which is exactly what the Cubs are looking for. Marshall and Mateo don't erase that need. i would still rather see marshall & mateo starting for the cubs than padilla. he might be healthier in 07 or he might have another 150 ip year but even when he's 100% he's not impressive enough for the cubs to spend 4 mil/ year on him imo. there is more than enough talent in the system pitching wise if the management would just have some confidence in them.

Hoops, do you really project Theriot as an everyday starter for the Cubs? I, like everyone, love what he has done for the Cubs in limited time this year...but is Theriot the Cubs version of Bo Hart (the 2B guy with the cool name that puts up inflated numbers in limited appearances)? i do. i like everythin i've seen from him. he could be a marcus giles/freel/loretta type player imo-.280-.300 with 10 hr's & 25+ sb. he is also good on the bases and very solid defensively.

Agreed. Very well put. Four solid arms and Prior. Now the debate becomes what is a solid arm and which of the Cubs "rookie" arms fit that description, if any. I'm in the camp that wants one really good FA starter and one veteran 5th starter type, maybe along the lines of Wade Miller, if he shows he is ready. I think hoping for Zito/Schmidt and someone like Padilla is very unrealistic. Heck, the teams that sign Zito and Schmidt should consider themselves lucky because there will be 28 other GMs who will have lost out. So really just getting one of those top of the rotation guys is unrealistic. Still, I'm hoping for one of those and another veteran arm to compete with Guzman, Marshall and Mateo for the 5th spot and give the Cubs another experienced and moderately successful pitcher should Prior (or anyone else) go down with injury. whats withh all the padilla love? the last 3 years he is 29-30 with an era over 4.50 and has averaged around 150 ip with no cg's. i would rather see marshall and mateo get a shot than to spend $ on this guy. He pitched well last year in the second half after struggling with a lingering biceps injury from the previous year. And, his numbers aren't spectacular this year, but a 4.27 ERA is a good year at a hitter's park like the one in Arlington - whatever it's named this year. If he makes all his starts and pitches better than league average, that's worth something. since cubs have guys like marshall & mateo, i dont see why they would want padilla. he gets hurt alot and makes 3+ million a year. imo they should stick with some of the young pitchers they already have.

even if/when the cubs resign pierre, they will keep pie & move him to rf imo. jones is the one who will be traded when pie is ready for the majors.

Agreed. Very well put. Four solid arms and Prior. Now the debate becomes what is a solid arm and which of the Cubs "rookie" arms fit that description, if any. I'm in the camp that wants one really good FA starter and one veteran 5th starter type, maybe along the lines of Wade Miller, if he shows he is ready. I think hoping for Zito/Schmidt and someone like Padilla is very unrealistic. Heck, the teams that sign Zito and Schmidt should consider themselves lucky because there will be 28 other GMs who will have lost out. So really just getting one of those top of the rotation guys is unrealistic. Still, I'm hoping for one of those and another veteran arm to compete with Guzman, Marshall and Mateo for the 5th spot and give the Cubs another experienced and moderately successful pitcher should Prior (or anyone else) go down with injury. whats withh all the padilla love? the last 3 years he is 29-30 with an era over 4.50 and has averaged around 150 ip with no cg's. i would rather see marshall and mateo get a shot than to spend $ on this guy.

its not dunn himself (i do think he's way overrated though)- its what they would have to give up to get him. keep the young pitching, pie & murton in LF and i think they would win more games than if they traded for dunn.

oh please let the reds keep dunn so murton can play lf next year!

That's not true. Link i stand corrected. he hasnt done too bad in the 5th spot but has lesser production everywhere else. his obp does fall to a measly .316 at #5 though.

I agree 100%. It's a waste of his slugging power to have him bat leadoff. Especially if his BB/PA reverts, we want that power lower in the lineup. soriano only hits well when he leads off. other teams have tried to drop him down in the lineup and his production falls way off.

If their goal is coming in 3rd or 4th at best, sure. just like hill is a aaaa pitcher, murton a 4th outfielder & theriot isnt a starting 2b. if the cubs went young in 2007 i think they could contend. i am tired of high priced free agents who either suck or get hurt. the future of the cubs is in the farm system not on the free agent list. That's basically what we have right now and we stink. It's not that high priced free agents stink, it's only the high priced FA we pick up. so did detroit & the marlins last year. this year they both seem to be doing ok. besides they young guys havent played full time the whole year. it took dusty almost the whole season to start using murton in LF everyday and theriot, soto & mateo are only getting playing time because nefi is gone and barrett, lee & rusch are injured. If you want to be the Marlins, say goodbye to Barrett, Lee, Aramis, et al. Do you want all youth or what? You can't just randomly make your lineup half or more rookies and young players and keep a few vets here or there. 9 times out of 10 that kind of mix isn't going to work. Soto is not going to outplay Barrett. If anything, he'll take on a Blanco-like role. Mateo is not ready to be a counted on starting pitcher for an entire year if you're putting him up there with 2 other starting rookie pitchers and you expect the team to win and hit .500. Bottom line, you're suggesting a hideous team that potentially does even worse than this year's. i disagree. it's worked for other teams in the past and it could work for the cubs. you are starting to sound like dusty imo.

If their goal is coming in 3rd or 4th at best, sure. just like hill is a aaaa pitcher, murton a 4th outfielder & theriot isnt a starting 2b. if the cubs went young in 2007 i think they could contend. i am tired of high priced free agents who either suck or get hurt. the future of the cubs is in the farm system not on the free agent list. Marshall and Mateo are still way too raw to be counted on in that capacity. I think Hill is great but I think he's still going to be elarning when starts facing teams again and again. You simply cannot expect to win again and again with that as your starting rotation, even in a division this crappy. It's an absurd expectation. And for the record, yes, there are a lot of players I'd rather have out there than Murton right now. Do I hate the idea of him starting in LF next year? No. Do I think it's the autpmatic or best choice? No. And you couldn't convince me that Theriot should be the starting 2B if you were made of money. There's zero point in the Cubs going "half young" like you're suggesting. Either they sell of guys like Barret and Aramis and Lee and get what they can and go all youth or they insert a FEW rookies where they can. I'd happily accept Theriot as the chief IF utility guy next year...or with Murton, make him the primary OF backup and insert him into a legitimate platoon with Jones. But not both at the same time. This team is nowhere near being good enough to afford that luxury if they want to genuinely rebuild. Same with the pitching...having 1 rookies starter? Works for me. 2? Eh...if needed, alright But not in the long run. 3? That's not going to work. dont see why not. look at who the twins have starting-santana, liriano & guys with era's over 4.5. oakland has zito, haren and guys with 4.5+ era's. neither has a powerhouse offense but instead they rely on a balanced lineup, a few good starters & a good pen. i hope to see the cubs follow suit next year. they can keep barrett, lee & aram and go young and still win imo.

If their goal is coming in 3rd or 4th at best, sure. just like hill is a aaaa pitcher, murton a 4th outfielder & theriot isnt a starting 2b. if the cubs went young in 2007 i think they could contend. i am tired of high priced free agents who either suck or get hurt. the future of the cubs is in the farm system not on the free agent list. That's basically what we have right now and we stink. It's not that high priced free agents stink, it's only the high priced FA we pick up. so did detroit & the marlins last year. this year they both seem to be doing ok. besides they young guys havent played full time the whole year. it took dusty almost the whole season to start using murton in LF everyday and theriot, soto & mateo are only getting playing time because nefi is gone and barrett, lee & rusch are injured.