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mg420

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Everything posted by mg420

  1. mg420
    good thing dusty started bynum & blanco instead of theriot & soto
  2. mg420
    thats true but i was trying to avoid the zito comparison. if hill can get his average change over once in while & try to change speeds on his curve he can be very effective against the right handers imo.
  3. mg420
    his control is questionable. he needs to pitch at least a half a season at aaa imo. mateo & marshall are more likely to contribute in 07 imo.
  4. mg420
    Fixed. Fixed again... does this sort of thing really add to the discussion?
  5. mg420
    I got lost somewhere along the way here. Anyway, the Cubs do have enough money to get a couple of good starting pitchers this offseason. What they must do is cut bait on expensive, but unproductive players, elsewhere, and stay away from wasting a million here and there on roster filler, when $350,000 guys can do the same job. Whether or not Hill pitches the third game of the season is irrelevent to me. I just feel like a lot of people are going overboard in what they think he's likely to do next season, along the lines of those who thought Murton was a shoe-in 850 OPS guy and Cedeno was going to be great. You have to build contigencies into your team, and plan for setbacks. You can't build teams with too high of expectations for individual players, otherwise you are setting your team up for failure, in terms of meeting your expectations. A perfect example of this is Zach Duke. He was 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA last year. He was counted on to be their number 3 starter this year, and so far he's 9-13 with a 4.68 ERA. There's a lesson to be learned here. Hill should be counted on nothing more but a 5th starter. duke & hill are totally different types of pitchers. look at duke's minor leauge k's compared to hill's. perhaps two of the twins pitchers would be a better comparision-santana & liriano. not to say that hill is going to be one of the best lefties in baseball but he certainly has the stuff to do so.
  6. mg420
    I have no idea what you are trying to say. The Cubs need good pitchers. No it's not, not even close. Maybe if you are haphazardly assigning numbers it is. Rich Hill is going to have a certain level of expected production next year. Whether they sign Jason Schmidt or Steve Trachsel, that level won't change. If they get Zito and Padilla to add to Zambrano, there's no way you can label Hill the 3 starter. If Prior proves healthy all spring, there's no way you can label Hill the 4 starter. That would be because you have 4 pitchers who one would expect to be better than Hill. That would be a good thing. If you go into 2007 with only 2 pitchers expected to be better than Hill that would be bad. Rich Hill in 2007 is not going to be Rich Hill the crappy AAAA loogy with one pitch. Nor is he going to be the great pitcher of the past couple months. What you will get is a mix of both, hopefully a little closer to the latter. But it would be a fatal mistake to expect 15 wins out of him (for several reasons), and stupid to set up your rotation with only 2 pitchers you would expect to be better than him. hill has a better chance to be more productive than padilla in 2007 imo. i would rather see mateo than padilla starting for the cubs any day.
  7. mg420
    Not sure how the Angels fit as an example. But the Marlins and A's go with youth out of necessity, they can't afford anything else. And they are much better at developing their youth. The question is whether or not you want to contend next year. If you're building for the future, by all means stay away from veteran arms and let the youth develop. But if you are trying to increase your odds of conteding next season, it would be a terrible mistake to go into 2007 with Hill projected as the 3rd best pitcher. That is unless, of course, you are pouring a ton of money into a lineup that will vault to the top of the runs scored list, which I wouldn't object to. they won the series in 2002 with guys like donnelly, lackey, washburn & frod. i dont know how many of these guys they developed but they were all young pitchers from their system.
  8. mg420
    Actually there are plenty of reasons. First and foremost would be his team could be so bad that it would be nearly impossible to win 15 games. He can't do it all on his own. But you kind of make my point for me. It would be a big mistake to simply say, well, he was good in the minors, and he was good for a nice stretch here in 2006, therefore he's going to win 15 games and be our number 3. A more reasonable approach, and one that would greatly improve the Cubs chances of winning, would be to set-up the rotation so that you aren't counting on Hill to be your 5th starter. He's not going to be great for 30+ starts. Like most young pitchers, he's going to have his ups and downs. In the end he might be great, he might be terrible, or he might be a prototypical number 3 starter. He's not a lock for anything, however, and it would be a major mistake to build your team on the assumption that he is a lock to be good enough to justify having him as your #3 starter going into the season. aside for hill, there are several young pitcher ready to contribute in 2007-marshall, mateo, marmol (although i think marmol should switch to closer) to go along with z & prior/good free agent. gahallager & veal might no be too far behind either. my point is that i would rather see the cubs go young and stay within their system instead of getting a bunch of expensive free agents. the talent is there, they only need an opportunity & some good coaching imo. this avenue has worked for teams like the marlins, oakland & the angels so it is not out of the realm of possibilty.
  9. mg420
    The point is to get 4 guys better than him, not to actually label him with a number. If we're calling Hill the 3, that means the team will have only 2 pitchers who will project to have better seasons than Hill. And that would be a terrible mistake. there is no reason hill cant win 15 games next year if he gets 30+ starts. i wouldnt call having a so called #3 win 15 games a "terrible mistake". prior is once again the key imo. if they knew he was going to be healthy (HA HA), a rotation of z, prior, hill, marshall & mateo would be a very good one imo. not being able to count on prior, the cubs probably should try to get a free agent like schmidt. it's not like hill hasnt shown what he can do in the minors already (ie his recent success is most likely not a fluke). now that he has seemingly put it together in the big leauges, i dont think there should be much doubt about his future potential as a major leauge starter.
  10. mg420
    after opening day, whoever is pitching is the #1 starter imo. other than maybe skipping a guy in april due to the off day's scheduled, i dont see much point in labeling starters 1-5 (except to order who follows whom in the rotation).
  11. mg420
    Juan should be nowhere near this team next year, if we actually care about a productive lineup. you are right. it would be impossible for a team with pierre leading off to get to the playoffs or world series let alone win them.
  12. mg420
    kottaras would have been nice, though. perhaps the cubs can still snag him from boston for a starter like ryu or wells.
  13. mg420
    murton should hit # 2 behind juan imo. izturis should be 7th or 8th.
  14. mg420
    it is possible that his down then up then down cycle was due to it being the 1st year using a wooden bat. he needed to get adjusted to wood after using an aluminium bat, got used to using one, then got tired at the end of the year. give the guy some time to adjust before judging him. heck, howard is 27 in his 1st full season in the majors. not every player can come up at age 20 like andrew jones.
  15. mg420
    HE'S BAAACK...
  16. mg420
    he looked pretty good the 1st time around the order.
  17. mg420
    i disagree with your assesment. hill & marshall will be starting on the big leauge club next year, guzman & marmol need more time in aaa (guzman as a starter & marmol moving to closer) and i think mateo will get a long look as a starter next year too (depending on how prior does health wise). i'm not very high on jkr but i would certainly hope the cubs keep the rest of those guys. if this club is going to win in the near future, they will do so on their starting pitching & bullpen. my point wasn't that none of them will make but that there is noway all of them will make it or help us...so let's use them to get other pieces. they all have some talent and a lot of potential..if we do what we have done lately and hold'em until they have no or little value what's the use of having them! we have z...that's a given prior is still a question mark but he is here as a bonus if we sign 1-2 starters...we only have 2 spots left for prior, marshall, hill, guzman, mateo, marmol, and ryu...we could have a lot of value out there! also if we sign zito...i don't see how we can have both hill and marshall. just too similar. they are also probably our most valuable prospects. which is why the cubs should keep hill & marshall & not sign zito. if they can get schmidt for reasonable years & $, he is the only free agent i might be interested in seeing the cubs getting. otherwise, i hope they give the kids a change to show what they can do inj 2007.
  18. mg420

    mg420 replied to cubfan1955's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    i think they should move fox to 3b myself. robinson is much better defensively and has started to hit well too.
  19. mg420
    he does have a world series ring. while that does not necessarily make him a good manager, it does mean he's not a bad one imo. Dusty got very very close to a couple, and he's absolutely horrid. Brenly made some really stupid decisions in that series, too. They won despite his managing... not because of it. if you are looking for a perfect manager, he doesnt exist. name a manager who hasnt made many incorrect decisions during the season. look at ozzie. last year everything he did worked well and this year the sox might win 95 games and they still might not make the playoffs i'm not saying brenly's the answer but his philosophy seems to be going in the right direction. getting very very close counts for nothing btw (ie the 2003 cubs).
  20. mg420
    That's a nice idea, problem is position player wise, the farms system is garbage. So are we just gonna put up with the crap on the field now till we rebuilt the farm system? i think "garbage" is a much too harsh description. although pitching is obviously the strength of the system, guys like pie, ep, theriot, soto, restovich, fox, moore, fontenot, colvin, robinson are all good prospects who will have a good chance to contribute in the not too distant future.
  21. mg420
    he does have a world series ring. while that does not necessarily make him a good manager, it does mean he's not a bad one imo.
  22. mg420
    i agree. let theriot have the job until ep is ready. i really like what i've seen from ryan so far this year. he's not great any anything but he seems to be very solid in every aspect of the game (which cant be said for many other of the cubs players). i'm sure working with ryno next year in spring training would also benefit him.
  23. mg420
    he sounds like he might do a good job. i especially like the quote about him wanting to build the team from within through the farm system instead of free agents.
  24. mg420
    i disagree with your assesment. hill & marshall will be starting on the big leauge club next year, guzman & marmol need more time in aaa (guzman as a starter & marmol moving to closer) and i think mateo will get a long look as a starter next year too (depending on how prior does health wise). i'm not very high on jkr but i would certainly hope the cubs keep the rest of those guys. if this club is going to win in the near future, they will do so on their starting pitching & bullpen.
  25. mg420
    i happen to think that murton, pie & hill will win more games for the cubs than cabrera alone would. the young pitching in the minors will not be ready next year most likely and it was really the starting pitching that did the cubs in this year (or lack there of). imo murton can be a .300 25 hr guy and hill can win 15 games in 2007.
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