If you want to really look at the schedule pessimistically, the Panthers could go 2-1 in their remaining games (with the most likely wins coming against Green Bay and Tampa), and the Patriots, Cardinals, and Commanders could all lose out. That would result in a tie for #3 between the Panthers and Commanders, and right now the Commanders hold a slight SOS advantage. In other words, it is still conceivable the Panthers pick could fall to #4, although it is much more likely to be 1 or 2.