Rob

Yeah, I touched on this and then touched off a few pages of debate on another thread, the one that speculated on Hendry having to step down. I'm in the minority around here who thinks Gary Hughes is a darn fine baseball man and evaluator of talent. I might be a little biased because I know him and have talked a lot of baseball with him. He's got a pretty cool World Series ring from helping the Marlins procure some good players. But he didn't know what "DIPS" meant, and that made him an idiot to a lot of people. I don't think anyone doubts Hughes' scouting prowess. I think what that roundtable showed was a dismissiveness and a lack of tolerance for new ways of evaluating performance. That's pretty much what I took out of it. I've got no problem with Hughes being the #1 man on the scouting side, but I'd like for a GM to be the guy who mixes the opinions from the scouting side with the stats side. Hughes just hasn't given me any indication he'd be up for that role.

If I were giving Hendry a grade, I'd give him a C-. A good chunk of that is because it appears all of these contracts are backloaded, so any incoming management group is going to have a very hard time adding any quality talent for the next 3-4 years... and if the incoming group wants to cut salary... we'd be boned. This team is essentially the team you're going to see for the next few years, barring a nice trade. And I think we can all agree this isn't exactly a powerhouse of a team.

Very good signings: Aramis Wood Miller Bad money/years but decent players: Soriano Lilly DeRosa Meh signings: Blanco Ward Horrible signings: Marquis

The impression I've gotten is that Beane is losing faith in Dan Johnson. If all things worked out, Johnson would be at first... but if he's got a chance to upgrade the OF, he'd move Swisher to first.

We can't just send them down, IIRC. We could, however, cut them. At that point, any team who wanted them could pick them up and only be on the hook for a prorated portion of a league minimum salary.

I can't decide which I would rather have... Russ Ortiz at 4 years and 33 mil, or Jason Marquis at 3 and 28.

In the past, the Cubs have made the mistake of relying on the health and performance of Prior and Wood to get them to the postseason. We've finally learned our lesson. This year, we're relying on Prior and Hill to make or break the pitching staff. Thank the lord we've learned from our mistakes.

If we're throwing those guys in... Veal > Gallagher > Guzman > Pawelek > Marmol > Huseby > Marshall > Ryu > Mateo

That's about best-case scenario. Best case scenario is that some legal-minded individual files a case contesting the contract on the grounds that Hendry is not of sound mind or body.

It depends on when Veal gets promoted to AAA.

yeah, this does not matter at all. Sure it does. I'm not trying to say Gordon's going to flame out Brooks Kieschnick style, but in the context of next season's offense he's far from a lock to put up great production. Look at Miguel Cabrera, his first full season of at bats(after putting up better numbers than Gordon in AA) was a little over an .800 OPS. Nothing terrible, but not that good for expected middle of the order production. I've seen Gordon. He's going to be better than Cabrera. Seriously. This kid is the real deal. Whoa there. Cabrera put up a .339/.430/.568 in the ML during his age 23 season. Gordon put up a .325/.427/.588 in AA during his age 22 season. If Gordon jumps up 2 levels and posts the exact same numbers this year, he'll be marginally better than Cabrera. Somehow, I just don't see that happening.

Really? Berroa and LaRue are black holes, Grudz isn't any good, Sweeney's coming off a subpar half season, Brown's a platoon player, and Gordon doesn't have a single MLB at bat. It's not a lock to be terrible, but it's nothing admirable really. But you want Pie to start in CF for the Cubs. I cant say I agree with anything you said right there. You can't agree with Berroa being an offensive black hole? The man batted .234/.259/.333

Well, it's a good thing none of our young arms have enough talent to be potential top-of-the-rotation guys, cause they just got blocked by Jason Freaking Marquis. Somebody at the cubs convention just needs to ask him whether he hates the cubs, or if he's just stupid.

I think his formula is very simple: wins / salary. A basic return on investment calculation. You can't leave out the fact that there's replacement level to worry about. We should be talking about Marginal Payroll / Marginal Wins (club payroll - (28 x major league minimum) / ((winning percentage - .300) x 162) AL East Club Marginal Wins Cost per Marginal Win Least Efficient Yankees 48.4 $3,832,791 Most Efficient Blue Jays 38.4 $1,634,349 AL Central Club Marginal Wins Cost per Marginal Win Least Efficient Royals 13.4 $2,846,119 Most Efficient Twins 47.4 $1,144,304 AL West Club Marginal Wins Cost per Marginal Win Least Efficient Mariners 29.4 $2,680,402 Most Efficient A's 44.4 $1,195,655 NL East Club Marginal Wins Cost per Marginal Win Least Efficient Braves 30.4 $2,664,503 Most Efficient Marlins 29.4 $198,724 NL Central Club Marginal Wins Cost per Marginal Win Least Efficient Cubs 17.4 $4,900,488 Most Efficient Reds 31.4 $1,648,201 NL West Club Marginal Wins Cost per Marginal Win Least Efficient Giants 27.7 $2,920,593 Most Efficient Padres 39.4 $1,541,628 Figures taken from Baseball Prospectus The Cubs are obviously the worst of the bunch.

I just threw up a little in my mouth. Why is that? Gary Hughes has value in being a scout. I'm surely not about to debate that. But after the comments of his that I have read, I don't want him in charge of making the decisions. Perhaps my comment was a bit over the top, as I did not mean to disparage him personally, but the things he's said would make me very scared to see what kind of a team he'd put on the field.

having a lot of high draft picks this year should help, especially with that #3 pick. Wieters/Price please I'm really praying it's Wieters.

You, sir, are a bold faced liar.

These winter leagues are getting to be almost as depressing as the regular season.

I'm fairly certain it will be disappointing, but that's about as far as I'm willing to predict. Wow, finals season has me in a bad mood.

Guzman / Marmol / Marshall Guzman easily has the highest ceiling of these guys, and while last season was nasty, I still refuse to cut bait on a guy that posted a 40:0 strikeout to walk ratio in 30 innings just two years ago. In the same vein that Rich Hill was somewhat illogically trusted by Jim Hendry, I feel that way about Guzman this year. Marmol has a very high ceiling as well, thanks to his filthy stuff. And as a converted position player, his arm doesn't have quite the wear and tear that the other guys have. I don't think he'll be too useful for 2007, but come 2009 he could be a real force to be reckoned with. As for Marshall, I'm just not too high on his ceiling. He could be a good #4 for a few years, or a decent #3, but he doesn't have the sort of top of the rotation stuff. He's obviously not without value, but as a gigantic lefty he has perhaps the most perceived value of the group. I'd like to sell high on him if we get the chance.

His bum ticker might have kept him from doing something stupid like matching the Royals' offer for Gil Meche.

The power of affirmations. If you say he's incredible often enough, maybe he'll stop being crappy.

For a ex-decent prospect? Jones has more value than that. I know if I were the GM I would try to get the best available player for Jones. I wouldn't trade Jacque to trade Jacque. Lofton SHOULD NOT be considered an every day player. And no way in hell would I pay him 6 million. If he is willing to take 2 million then I would consider it. Hendry didn't help out Jones' value by saying he would be open to trading Jones to any other team. Im sure Hendry did not say those exact words. Jones for David Newhan? Thats a complete joke. I rather keep Jones than get that bum Newhan on the team. Agreed. Even if the commissioner's office was forcing me to trade Jacque to the Orioles for a violation of some obscure rule, I'd rather take nothing back in return than to take Newhan.

For a ex-decent prospect? Jones has more value than that. I know if I were the GM I would try to get the best available player for Jones. I wouldn't trade Jacque to trade Jacque. Lofton SHOULD NOT be considered an every day player. And no way in hell would I pay him 6 million. If he is willing to take 2 million then I would consider it. Hendry didn't help out Jones' value by saying he would be open to trading Jones to any other team. What's he supposed to do, refuse to trade him to the Mets? :roll:

I don't know about smarter game strategy... I just read somewhere that Lou was thinking of batting Izturis 2nd.