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Rob

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  1. Rob
    That's odd, cause PECOTA has his IsoP gradually increasing throughout their five year forecast to a .174 mark in his age 24 season. I'd imagine it would continue to show a nice rise in his next few years after that if they'd show those numbers to us.
  2. Rob
    Much as I had to admit it, it's a pretty good business move by MLB. Really, the people who don't get to watch the extra innings package now are the die-hard fans... the sort who might get mlb.tv anyways. Those few that miss out are still going to be baseball fans, though... and the very few they do lose will be more than made up by the huge paycheck from DirecTV coming their way. With even decent investment of a portion of what they make with this deal, it'll more than pay for itself short and long term.
  3. Rob
    Thanks for the scoop! Disappointing, though. I would have liked to see him get at least a token chance at the 25th man.
  4. Rob
    You'd still get a crap signal. MLB sends the games out in a tiny little resolution, one so small that it looks bad enlarging it on my own laptop monitor.
  5. Rob
    At worst, he's still better than Neifi or Tomas Perez.
  6. Rob

    Rob replied to kujay's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Just to stimulate debate, here are a few quick and dirty numbers from the PECOTA projections for Sheets and Santana. Santana: 90th Percentile - 226.3 IP, 177 H, 243 SO, 41 BB, 0.97 WHIP, 2.16 ERA Weighted Mean - 218.7 IP, 187 H, 218 SO, 50 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 2.97 ERA 10th Percentile - 185.7 IP, 175 H, 168 SO, 54 B, 1.23 WHIP, 3.96 ERA Sheets: 90th Percentile - 196 IP, 163 H, 197 SO, 27 BB, 0.97 WHIP, 2.59 ERA Weighted Mean - 180.7 IP, 162 H, 172 SO, 30 BB, 1.06 WHIP, 3.29 ERA 10th Percentile - 136.7 IP, 135 H, 120 SO, 28 BB, 1.19 WHIP, 4.25 ERA
  7. Rob
    I think there are two kinds of closers: Good ones and guys who have good seasons. Good ones are guys like Rivera, Gagne, Smoltz (also an outstanding starter), Wagner... Guys who have good "seasons" are guys like Dempster, Kolb, Tim Worrell (Giants). The trick is realizing when you have a good pitcher and when you have caught lightning in a bottle. I still think Dempster will be a good closer. Not great, but good. Only if he manages to never face a left-handed batter for the rest of his career. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3845 Left-handed batters average about 200 points better in OPS against Dempster than right-handed batters. Dempster should be used when the opposing team has 3 RH batters coming up. He'd be perfect against the Cubs, for example. Sometimes that's a mental thing for a pitcher. It may not be in this case but it goes with being too careful and then falling behind in the count. I'm curious on his strike/ball ratio righty/lefty wise. I guess it's possible that not getting out lefties is a mental thing, but it's been a constant problem for half a decade. My guess is that he needs to add a pitch that's effective against lefties, so the cause of his problems is stuff. Either way, though, the Cubs shouldn't be sending him out against left-handed batters. I'd like to think that having Ohman, Eyre, and Cotts means that the powers that be recognize that Dempster should be used as a ROOGY and pulled against lefties, but I doubt it. Possible. I have a lot more faith in Lou when it comes to using the pen correctly than I ever did Dusty. How much of that is based on your actual observations of Lou, and how much of it is based on the fact that Lou isn't Dusty?
  8. Rob
    He's actually the opposite of Neifi. Well, they both can't hit but I thought Hill was a pretty good OBP guy that could steal some bases. Not really. Hill has 6 career SB's, they all came with the Cubs. He hasn't had a SB since leaving Chicago. Also, his OBP is ok, but does it really matter if your OPS is below .700? He has had one year with an OPS above .700. That was with, you guessed it, the Cubs. It was .701. Again, he's Neifi without the defense. While OPS is a decent indicator of overall performance, many of the top sabermetric minds have determined that the OBP part of that equation is severely underrepresented. I have seen systems that use 1.8*OBP + Slug and even 3*OBP + Slug. Again, OPS isn't bad for eyeballing a guy... but it is certainly possible to be useful with a sub .700 OPS. Hell, a guy could be so proficient in fouling off pitches that he draws a walk six or seven out of every ten times he gets to the plate and still be very useful even if he grounds out weakly to the pitcher every single plate appearance he doesn't draw a walk.
  9. Rob
    If Marmol is available, I'm sure it'd be him.
  10. Rob
    I think I would prefer ARods next 5 yrs to Z's, but that is just me. I think it is more likely that Z will break down and not be worth the money he is likely to command. I agree, especially if the other pitchers do well. Same here. Nobody should be "untouchable" on this team right now. Carlos Zambrano is an "untouchable" in my books. Just like how Johan Santana should be considered an "untouchable". You dont trade a staff ace. So if you were Terry Ryan, and got offered Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, and Adam Miller for Santana, you wouldn't do it? Declaring anybody untouchable is just bad business. If you can get more value in a trade, you make the trade. It's that simple. To say you wont make the trade because a player is "untouchable" for some archaic reason is asinine.
  11. Rob
    What will happen? LF - Floyd CF - Soriano RF - Jones Murton getting in against lefties and the occassional spot start for Floyd or Jones (Floyd in right on those days). Most productive usage for this season? LF - Floyd/Murton platoon CF - Soriano RF - Jones/DeRosa platoon Pie called up when ready, Soriano moves to RF, Jones dealt... DeRosa takes over SS because Eric Patterson is the 2nd baseman. Most productive with an eye on the future? LF - Murton CF - Pie RF - Soriano Floyd gets AB's versus tough righties and is a big bat off the bench. Jones nets us a B- level pitching prospect, and DeRosa and Izturis fight to the death, each being slayed by the other at a simultaneous moment... violating the "fight to the death" clauses in their contracts and letting us get by with not paying the rest of their contracts. ARod feels bad for the city of Chicago and demands a trade post-haste.
  12. Rob
    Almost. Kerry did have a nice year, but only threw 176 innings. Miller threw 212. If the Big Unit and Curt Schilling hadn't gone loco that season, Miller would have been just as deserving as anyone else.
  13. Rob
    Hopefully at the expense of Lilly. Zambrano Hill Prior Veal Gallagher would be an insane rotation.
  14. Rob
    When was Miller a Cy Young candidate? I'd have to say 2001 was a pretty good year.
  15. Rob
    2007 AL central champions. People (including myself) have been saying that the last couple years. I'm starting to wonder if it will ever ring true. Though I don't think you can ever count a team with Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, and Victor Martinez out of it before the season even begins.
  16. Rob
    What about those of us who took him in the 14th round? I'm sorry... I still love the fact I pulled that off, though.
  17. Rob
    I'd agree to the fact that Prior's health is intergral to our chances (yet again), but I'd also like to point out that we are rather heavily relying on Hill to perform like he did after his last callup.
  18. Rob
    Well, Wuertz posted the best ERA at 2.66 of any reliever on the team last year and the best ERA period for anyone who saw substantial time (Ryan O'Malley had a 2.13 ERA in only 12.2 IP). He also posted the second best WHIP for a Cubs reliever last year (behind Howry) and third on the team (behind hill as well). There was no reason he should have been in AAA for a couple months last year. Wuertz had good peripherals, Eyre's were bad...Wuertz is the right side of 30 and under control for another 3 years at arbi prices vs Eyre who will turn 35 and is owed 7.3M for the next 2 years. I haven't heard anyone say to not trade him for the next best hitter in baseball history, just that he is a valuable reliever at a cheap price and we have others that should be traded ahead of him. I understand some of the stats points, but how often has he performed that well? Trust me, I hope last year wasn't a fluke, but I still get nervous every time he takes the mound... How often has Scott Eyre performed that well? If we look at something even as crude as ERA, Eyre has topped that 2.66 mark twice in 10 seasons... one of those times being in a season where he only threw eleven and a third innings. His other mark that topped Wuertz was his 2005 season, where he posted a 2.63 ERA, in a better park for pitchers. And then we have to consider that Wuertz is much younger and much cheaper... while being just as effective as Eyre, but without the higher perceived market value. Actually, that was just a partial year (2002). He put up a 4.46 for that season on a whole. And the other year he topped that mark (2005) his BABIP was a lucky 261. Thanks for the correction. My research is bound to be on the sloppy side when I'm sloppy drunk.
  19. Rob
    Well, Wuertz posted the best ERA at 2.66 of any reliever on the team last year and the best ERA period for anyone who saw substantial time (Ryan O'Malley had a 2.13 ERA in only 12.2 IP). He also posted the second best WHIP for a Cubs reliever last year (behind Howry) and third on the team (behind hill as well). There was no reason he should have been in AAA for a couple months last year. Wuertz had good peripherals, Eyre's were bad...Wuertz is the right side of 30 and under control for another 3 years at arbi prices vs Eyre who will turn 35 and is owed 7.3M for the next 2 years. I haven't heard anyone say to not trade him for the next best hitter in baseball history, just that he is a valuable reliever at a cheap price and we have others that should be traded ahead of him. I understand some of the stats points, but how often has he performed that well? Trust me, I hope last year wasn't a fluke, but I still get nervous every time he takes the mound... How often has Scott Eyre performed that well? If we look at something even as crude as ERA, Eyre has topped that 2.66 mark twice in 10 seasons... one of those times being in a season where he only threw eleven and a third innings. His other mark that topped Wuertz was his 2005 season, where he posted a 2.63 ERA, in a better park for pitchers. And then we have to consider that Wuertz is much younger and much cheaper... while being just as effective as Eyre, but without the higher perceived market value.
  20. Rob
    Murton was a product of the Red Sox, not the Cubs. I hope Wilken turns things around, but the Cubs farm system is currently below average. I don't understand. 10 yrs from now hopefully no one will remember where Murton was drafted. They'll remember where he made his name. Is Ryne Sandberg a Phillie? I agree with your posts most of the time but Hendry picked Murton out of a million. He does deserve a little credit on that trade. I wish someone would come out and say he seen a little something in Murton. Where's Bruce Miles when you need him? If I remember correctly, Murton was originally taken from the Red Sox in order to be sent to the Expos, but at the last minute they changed their mind on Murton and asked for Brendan Harris. Matt Murton fell into the Cubs lap. I'm a big Hendry supporter, but I don't believe he deserves all the credit! You don't remember correctly. Baseball America's 2005 Prospect Handbook says "The Expos weren't interested in getting Murton from the Red Sox in the trade, so Hendry offered to give up Harris and take Murton at the last moment." Perhaps the Expos didn't explicitly ask for Harris instead of Murton, but the situation did still kind of fall into Hendry's lap. I will grant him the credit for capitalizing on it, but it's still partially due to sheer dumb luck.
  21. Rob
    If everybody is actually healthy and ready to go, I think Prior gets traded. If memory serves, Wade Miller signed his deal after becoming a free agent, so that means that we can't trade him, Marquis, or Lilly until June 15th. Zambrano isn't going anywhere, and Hill is cheap and has great upside. Meanwhile, Prior has a questionable track record, but with another year and a half of club control and some upside. If Prior is healthy and throwing well for the first month, I wouldn't be surprised to see him shipped off with Jacque and maybe a couple relievers for some help at SS.
  22. Rob
    Here's to Mark being the most underpaid pitcher in baseball in 07'. (Due to his overwhelming success of course) Another thought - We better lock up Big Z before this season, because if Prior does return to form, locking up both of them next offseason would be close to impossible. On the plus side of things, I am very confident that he will not be the most overpaid pitcher for us next season.
  23. Rob
    But you can't forget that there's significant statistical proof of a Coors Field "hangover" effect. You can make the point that his numbers have been dropping, yes... but his away numbers certainly aren't reflective of his actual talent level right now.
  24. Rob
    Because Helton's OPS has decreased by 100 points each of the last two years, going from uber-elite to really really good. However, his OPS is still going to be about 150 points higher than Lowell. Thats about the difference between Izturis and Tejada. If the cubs ended up adding Tejada and subtracting Izturis, what do you think the appropriate reaction would be. Actual differences in OPS between Izturis and Tejada from 2001 through 2006: 2001 - .135 2002 - .306 2003 - .211 2004 - .183 2005 - .240 2006 - .264 Only once since they broke into the league has Izturis been within 150 points of OPS to Tejada, and that was in a season where Izturis only had 140 PA. As much as I would love to think Izturis could pull within 150 points of OPS to Tejada, the only way he does that is if he puts up better than normal-numbers before getting badly injured and limiting his playing time (which I would like as well)... while hoping Tejada has a down year. (Sorry, couldn't pass up an opportunity to stress again how utterly inept Izturis is with the bat.)
  25. Rob
    It was made abundantly clear to me last weekend that all of those guys have options, so they aren't worried about the logjam. Are you sure? I thought Gooz was out of options.
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