Rob

Um, that team doesn't lack in speed at all. Hanley - 51 SB Polanco - 7 SB Pujols - 2 SB ARod - 24 SB Magglio - 4 SB Holliday - 11 SB Vlad - 2 SB Martin - 21 SB And the only reason Pujols and Vlad had totals that low is because they were dealing with leg injuries all year... Normally Pujols is good for 7-8 steals and Vlad around 15. But even figuring just last year's numbers, it'd be a boost of about 50% in the steal department.

honus wagner played shortstop. really, really well, by all accounts. i realize you probably know that, but you probably realize that i know that cobb hit better than wagner over the course of his career. i suspect positional scarcity and defensive value slide wagner comfortably ahead of wagner, but i obviously have no way of proving that. WARP3 should do it. Wagner posted a 210.7 score for his career, while Cobb comes in at 205.4, despite Cobb playing about 250 more games.

It's not that bad. Cubs need: Starting SS Good backup catcher with clean bill of health (as an insurance policy for Soto) Jim Hendry "needs": Left-handed/switch hitters People who can run Replacements for our .791 OPS and .790 OPS cheap 2B and RF Lou Piniella "needs": RHSP so we wont have three lefties in our rotation

That's a much more interesting stat than his below .240 EqA. I wont disagree that Theriot did all we could ever ask of him. The problem is that we can't realistically ask him to do much of anything. He's not a good ballplayer, no matter how much gritty intangibility you want to pretend he adds.

1. Babe Ruth 2. Ted Williams 3. Barry Bonds 4. Honus Wagner 5. Willie Mays

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have Swisher... I'm just surprised nobody has mentioned how he's essentially Adam Dunn-lite.

If memory serves, players typically lose about 18% of their offensive value jumping up one league. Cedeno put up a line of .359/.422/.537 in AAA this year. That'd be the equivalent of about a .787 OPS. Even if you want to adjust his line down further because the PCL plays as a hitters league, you're stuck with the unavoidable fact that Cedeno has a much more lively bat than Theriot has. Then again, it doesn't take much to beat a .672 OPS. Keep in mind, Theriot has reached his ceiling. He might have a single fluke year where he could put up a .750 OPS in 450 AB or so, but he's not gonna top .700 too often. While Cedeno might revert back into his 2006 form (though highly unlikely, given two extra years of development time meaning so much for players that young), the risk is acceptible, as he's much more likely to eclipse Theriot's production by a similar margin. I just don't understand how people can keep thinking that Theriot is anything near a starting-caliber player for a contending team. He should have to fight for a starting job on the Royals.

Isn't the reported twins asking price Kemp, LaRoche, and Kershaw? No need to add Hu or upgrade from Kershaw to Billingsley to get it done. And the dodgers aren't willing to do that. I'm guessing Kershaw will be the sticking point for both teams. This would have been a whole lot easier if Elbert didn't have shoulder surgery. Upgrade from Kershaw to Billingsley? I've heard a lot of talk that teams prefer Kershaw.

First ballot? Really? He was solid for a long time and still put up great numbers into his 40's (steroids, anyone) but imo first ballot is really stretching it. Raines has more career value than McGwire, according to WARP3... and not by a slim margin. Rock is a first ballot HoF, even if nobody noticed it. He never finished higher than fifth in the mvp voting. He led his league once in batting average, twice in runs, but never led the league in hits, ops, hr's, or rbi. He wasn't particularly good in the postseason. The only hall of fame statistic he really has is his stolen bases. You also can't ignore his off-field problems as integrity and character are components of the vote. Combine all of that and he's a hall-of-famer maybe, but definitely not on his first try. MVP votes mean absolutely nothing, first off. Let's face it, the voters never get it right... hell, they've made a mess out of the vote pretty much every year in recent memory. As for the rest of Rock's accomplishments... 7 time all star Led the league in OBP once, placed in the top six an additional six times. Top ten in OPS four times, including a 2nd place finish. Top ten in runs 9 times, including two first place finishes, and two second place finishes. Ranked 46th all-time in his career for runs. Ranked 68th all-time in his career for hits. Ranked 100th all-time for total bases. Top ten finish in triples 9 times. Ranked 33rd all-time in walks. Ranked 5th all-time in steals. Top ten finish 11 times, including four times leading the league. Ranked 51st all-time in runs created. People always compare Rock to Rickey, since they were direct contemporaries. That's really not fair, seeing as how Rickey is a slam-dunk HoF player. Only a handful of players in history are gonna hold up to his standard. But when you compare Rock to all the other players in history, he definately belongs in the Hall. You're criticizing me for using mvp voting and then you use all-star game appearances. I guess I have a higher standard for guys getting in on their first try. You said yourself that Rickey is a slam dunk and Rock doesn't even compare, yet they're going into the same hall. I think the way to separate the "levels" of players is whether or not they got in on their first ballot. Rock scores lower than the average hall of famer using Bill James' HOF Standards and his HOF Monitor, couple that with his propensity to use blow and I just don't see any validation for him getting in this year. Fair enough on the All Star thing... but take a look at this. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=684 Rock's JAWS score - 102.1 Avg HoF LF - 86.8 And that's not just his longevity speaking... he's got a better peak than the average HoF left fielder too. My personal philosophy, if he's in the top 10 at his position, he should be voted in first ballot. Rock falls in that top ten.

First ballot? Really? He was solid for a long time and still put up great numbers into his 40's (steroids, anyone) but imo first ballot is really stretching it. Raines has more career value than McGwire, according to WARP3... and not by a slim margin. Rock is a first ballot HoF, even if nobody noticed it. He never finished higher than fifth in the mvp voting. He led his league once in batting average, twice in runs, but never led the league in hits, ops, hr's, or rbi. He wasn't particularly good in the postseason. The only hall of fame statistic he really has is his stolen bases. You also can't ignore his off-field problems as integrity and character are components of the vote. Combine all of that and he's a hall-of-famer maybe, but definitely not on his first try. MVP votes mean absolutely nothing, first off. Let's face it, the voters never get it right... hell, they've made a mess out of the vote pretty much every year in recent memory. As for the rest of Rock's accomplishments... 7 time all star Led the league in OBP once, placed in the top six an additional six times. Top ten in OPS four times, including a 2nd place finish. Top ten in runs 9 times, including two first place finishes, and two second place finishes. Ranked 46th all-time in his career for runs. Ranked 68th all-time in his career for hits. Ranked 100th all-time for total bases. Top ten finish in triples 9 times. Ranked 33rd all-time in walks. Ranked 5th all-time in steals. Top ten finish 11 times, including four times leading the league. Ranked 51st all-time in runs created. People always compare Rock to Rickey, since they were direct contemporaries. That's really not fair, seeing as how Rickey is a slam-dunk HoF player. Only a handful of players in history are gonna hold up to his standard. But when you compare Rock to all the other players in history, he definately belongs in the Hall.

First ballot? Really? He was solid for a long time and still put up great numbers into his 40's (steroids, anyone) but imo first ballot is really stretching it. Raines has more career value than McGwire, according to WARP3... and not by a slim margin. Rock is a first ballot HoF, even if nobody noticed it.

The way I'm reading this also indicates to me you're quite confident a deal will get done. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it. That's up to Matsui. He's the one who has to sign. All I'm saying is the Cubs are going hard after him. Bruce, why do you gotta make me cry?

This is a hilarious contract. Just to illustrate the closer thing, I thought I'd bring up the one aspect of Billy Beane's tenure that nobody can argue with... he's done a pretty good job finding closers for pennies on the dollar. Beane took over in 1997. Billy Taylor was his closer. In 1999 he flipped Taylor to the Mets for Jason Isringhausen. He let Isringhausen walk before the 2002 season, pocketed the draft picks, and traded Eric Hinske (meh) and Justin Miller to the Blue Jays for Billy Koch. Koch became the new closer (after posting an ERA above league average the year before). He let Koch's value get pumped back up, and then traded him to the White Sox with a couple minor leaguers for Keith Foulke, a former first round catcher, and a couple other minor names. Again, Beane threw Foulke in the closer role (after he had lost it the year before), pumped his value way up, and pocketed the draft picks. Even when he's failed, like with Octavio Dotel, he didn't give up too much. He gave up a couple prospects with limited ceilings in Mark Teahen and Mike Wood, aiming to hold onto Dotel until he got a good trade offer or could get the draft picks. Dotel got injured, but Wood is never gonna be missed, and Teahen had no place on the A's. It was certainly worth the risk. And recently, he drafted a guy and put him in as the closer. Street is costing them basically nothing. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that a good general manager will know better than to sink a good chunk of his payroll into a guy who pitches maybe 70 innings a year. In fact, closers are extremely easy to find, either from other systems or within your own. There's no reason you should ever sink that kind of money into a reliever, unless they're one of the extremely few that exhibit little to no variance in year-to-year performance and the club having enough already in their payroll that it's just a splash in the bucket (Rivera being one of the few).

We should always look at any offers on any of our players. It doesn't mean we should accept them, but Hendry wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't listen.

That had occured to me. Fukudome will be 30 this season, IIRC... while Matsui will be 32. A 2 year age gap in high school can lead to some degree of hazing... especially if the older kid is a star athlete.

Torn ACL and meniscus. I don't know medicine, but I don't believe the meniscus is the same thing as the MCL. The meniscus is just cartilage, though it's fairly important. Tearing that would cause your joint to lock up and making running fairly painful. The MCL is the medial collateral ligament, one of four ligaments (including the ACL-- anterior cruciate ligament) responsible for stablizing the knee. Injuring those is what causes the sensation of giving out, as well as causing pain.

According to an old article on Baseball Prospectus, that's the case.

We don't even have five shortstops. The only one who can really play there right now is Cedeno... Matsui would need to be healthy to play there.

I knew there was a reason I got drunk... my subconscious must have known that it was time for Hendry to do something this stupid.

I read it as "Fook U Doe May" I caught the joke.

His music sucks. The album title isn't gonna be enough to get me interested.

Offense is more important than defense, typically. Nobody is going to argue that. The question is whether the difference in defensive value between the best defensive SS in the league and an historically bad defensive season from a 3B is enough to cover the gap on their offensive values. If you can translate their defensive plays directly into runs saved/allowed, you can compare that directly to what they did with their bats. For this one, I'm gonna take a look at BRAA and FRAA. Braun cost his team 25 runs on defense compared to the average 3B, while adding 36 runs with his bat. Tulowitzki saved his team 24 runs on defense compared to the average SS, and added 10 runs with his bat. Offensively speaking, Tulo isn't in Braun's class. But in this rare case, his defense was certainly enough to cover the gap.

I know these numbers (especially FRAR) aren't exatly the best that can be found, but I'm feeling somewhat lazy. Batting Runs Above Replacement (BRAR) and Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR) Tulowitzki: 30 BRAR 46 FRAR Braun: 50 BRAR -15 FRAR Tulo got absolutely screwed. In terms of overall value, Tulo was more than twice as valuable. Even giving Braun an equal amount of playing time, Tulo would have easily been the best choice.

Kaz Matsui is a pretty bad baseball player.

Hanley is getting absolutely robbed. I see absolutely no chance he stays with the Marlins a day longer than he has to. He's got to realize he needs some real media coverage.