Rob

It would seem that even after Fukudome signs, the Cubs will need at least one more Japanese player. Any other FA's still available there? Dave Roberts could probably be had for a pittance. He's making 6.5 mil each of the next two years, and he's coming off a .695 OPS season at the age of 35. Wait, nevermind, he's on the Giants. Sabean probably thinks he's just about to hit his prime.

What do you give up on? You made a terrible argument and got called out on it. You don't want to get busted out for logical fallacies? Bring something better than cherry picked stats to the table. Cherry picked stats win ballgames.

The problem is that Prior, injuries and everything, could get a better deal than what the one-year team option would be even if he sat out the entire year and didn't pitch once. Some team out there would be willing to pay for another year of rehab with a team option, which guarantees him a few mil more and gets him the hell out of chicago... which seems to be his priority.

I gave up trying to take it seriously, because half the responses weren't serious to begin with and everytime I said "get serious", I'm accused of only letting players in that I want. Only a unbelievable racist would put Ty Cobb on a list of good baseball players. "Only an unbelievable racist..."

That was Jason Szuminski (sp?) back in 2004, I think.

Ahhh, of course I missed Jake Fox... the man without a position. I'll edit the original now.

Looks like it's 39 unless I missed somebody. (2) C: Soto, Blanco (3) 1B: Lee, Ward, Fox (I guess this is where to put him) (2) 2B: DeRosa, Fontenot (1) 3B: Ramirez (2) SS: Theriot, Cedeno (6) OF: Soriano, Pie, Murton, Patterson, Pagan, Fuld (17) RHP: Zambrano, Marquis, Wood, Prior, Marmol, Wuertz, Howry, Hart, Dempster, Gallagher, Guzman, Mateo, Harben, Ascanio, Petrick, Samardzija, Lahey (6) LHP: Lilly, Hill, Eyre, Marshall, Cotts, Pignatiello Edit: Threw Lahey in there as well.

Apparently, we missed pictures of kittens and sea lions. Any actual news about this trade? The last update was the Baltimore writer saying there was a "significant offer" on the table, and it might include Gallagher and Murton. That was around 10 last night, IIRC.

Don't know if you intended to imply Roberts is a better defender than DeRosa, but that's certainly debatable.

Khalil Greene = (our) Alex Gonzalez There's nothing wrong with that, as it can make him a 7 win player every now and then (an upgrade of five full wins over Theriot). But he's only got two more years under club control and he's starting to get expensive. Those five wins are huge in our current situation, but still I can't see the justification for trading away Pie. Even if Pie fails to meet most expectations, I don't see much of a chance that he can't eclipse the optimistic estimate of 14 wins over the next two seasons from Greene during Pie's six more years under club control. In a lot of situations (including Hendry's lame duck position), this makes a lot of sense... but I suppose I'm still hung up on Pie's upside. If I were as down on him as Meph apparently is though (which I would love to hear the explanation as to why), I would definately pull the trigger as well.

I was under the impression Soriano spoke some Japanese... he did spend some time over there, after all.

If the rumor of Hill and Marshall is true, Hendry needs to pull out of discussions right this moment. Roberts is an .825 OPS guy with average defense and very good speed. DeRosa is a .775 OPS guy with slightly better defense and much less speed. Meanwhile, losing Hill and Marshall would make our rotation... Z Lilly Marquis Dempster ??? This trade wouldn't improve our offense by nearly as much as it would hurt our pitching staff. We simply cannot afford to lose Rich Hill. He has a lot more value to this team than Brian Roberts does.... a LOT more.

I hate to say this, but I can actually see a sane thought process behind this. Hendry, for whatever reason (i.e. scouts), has decided that Fuld actually has a chance to develop into something worthwhile... whether that be a good 4th outfielder, or a bad starting center fielder, or whatever... it'd be something with a lot more value once he does manage to develop. Now, some other GM might've asked about Fuld, thinking he'd be nice roster filler for AAA, and been willing to offer Hendry peanuts for him. Hendry notices that it's entirely possible more people would come calling, not willing to give up anything of value for him. Yeah, I'd call him untouchable too. Think about it, on the off chance that Fuld has some huge fluke year filling in for an injured Pie, Hendry has already planted a seed that could get other GMs around the league thinking he's actually worth something (he meaning both Hendry himself and Fuld). Come this time next season, or even a few seasons from now, Hendry could stand to make a bit extra off the kid selling him off to some other unsuspecting GM. The problem is, that wasn't actually Hendry's thought process... but maybe the new GM could benefit from it if Hendry isn't around long enough after Fuld's fluke year to hand him a 3 year contract worth a few mil a season.

Feel free to point out where I've stepped out of line. You two going at it adds no value to the board. We get it, you guys don't like each other. The Odd Couple lasted five seasons. I see no reason this shouldn't.

Let's put all the facts out there. 1999 (18 years old) - #1 overall draft pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Played 56 very good games in rookie ball, moved up and played 16 horrible games in low class A. 2000 (19 years old) - Played 96 games at A ball with a low 800's OPS. Did get the MVP of the Future's Game that year, though. Injured in a car crash after the season. 2001 (20 years old) - Played in only 27 games, 23 of which came at AA where he posted a .457 OPS 2002 (21 years old) - Went back to high class A, where he played 56 games with an .866 OPS, before injuries forced him out. Suspended on July 15 for his second failed drug test. 2003 (22 years old) - During spring training, was sent to the minor league camp. Instead of reporting, he disappeared for six weeks. After his return, management sent him home. He did not return, citing "undisclosed off-field problems". 2004 (23 years old) - Suspended by MLB in February for another violation of the substance abuse rules. 2005 (24 years old) - Was not reinstated by MLB, as he had failed additional drug tests. Gets clean in early October. States that he had been in rehab eight times, and attempted suicide three times since 2003. 2006 (25 years old) - Reinstated June 30th. Begins play on July 4th, in low class A, where he posts a sub 700 OPS. His season ends 15 games later with a knee injury. While undeniably talented, he was going to be a 26 year old with huge makeup issues and absolutely no track record of success, seeing as how he had 15 games under his belt in the last 4 years. You can fault this Cubs regime for a lot, but this looked like a very low-risk proposition to make a decent amount of money at the Reds' expense.

For all the arguments stating that the level of competition has increased by so much, most people tend to forget the argument that these historic athletes would have access to newer methods of strength training, conditioning, and all these fancy new diets... not to mention that they'd have incentive to actually use them, considering the money being thrown around.

Pretty bad, but not Ryan Braun bad. Think -15 or so over a full season.

Do fielding stats factor into that at all? Seems like a shortstop would obviously have more assists, etc, than an outfielder. Yes, but they're adjusted for position (and Wagner did play all over the field). Wagner comes in at 228 runs above average over his entire career, 1027 above replacement level. Cobb comes in at 35 runs above average over his entire career, 559 above replacement level.

Um, that team doesn't lack in speed at all. Hanley - 51 SB Polanco - 7 SB Pujols - 2 SB ARod - 24 SB Magglio - 4 SB Holliday - 11 SB Vlad - 2 SB Martin - 21 SB And the only reason Pujols and Vlad had totals that low is because they were dealing with leg injuries all year... Normally Pujols is good for 7-8 steals and Vlad around 15. But even figuring just last year's numbers, it'd be a boost of about 50% in the steal department.

honus wagner played shortstop. really, really well, by all accounts. i realize you probably know that, but you probably realize that i know that cobb hit better than wagner over the course of his career. i suspect positional scarcity and defensive value slide wagner comfortably ahead of wagner, but i obviously have no way of proving that. WARP3 should do it. Wagner posted a 210.7 score for his career, while Cobb comes in at 205.4, despite Cobb playing about 250 more games.

It's not that bad. Cubs need: Starting SS Good backup catcher with clean bill of health (as an insurance policy for Soto) Jim Hendry "needs": Left-handed/switch hitters People who can run Replacements for our .791 OPS and .790 OPS cheap 2B and RF Lou Piniella "needs": RHSP so we wont have three lefties in our rotation

That's a much more interesting stat than his below .240 EqA. I wont disagree that Theriot did all we could ever ask of him. The problem is that we can't realistically ask him to do much of anything. He's not a good ballplayer, no matter how much gritty intangibility you want to pretend he adds.

1. Babe Ruth 2. Ted Williams 3. Barry Bonds 4. Honus Wagner 5. Willie Mays

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have Swisher... I'm just surprised nobody has mentioned how he's essentially Adam Dunn-lite.

If memory serves, players typically lose about 18% of their offensive value jumping up one league. Cedeno put up a line of .359/.422/.537 in AAA this year. That'd be the equivalent of about a .787 OPS. Even if you want to adjust his line down further because the PCL plays as a hitters league, you're stuck with the unavoidable fact that Cedeno has a much more lively bat than Theriot has. Then again, it doesn't take much to beat a .672 OPS. Keep in mind, Theriot has reached his ceiling. He might have a single fluke year where he could put up a .750 OPS in 450 AB or so, but he's not gonna top .700 too often. While Cedeno might revert back into his 2006 form (though highly unlikely, given two extra years of development time meaning so much for players that young), the risk is acceptible, as he's much more likely to eclipse Theriot's production by a similar margin. I just don't understand how people can keep thinking that Theriot is anything near a starting-caliber player for a contending team. He should have to fight for a starting job on the Royals.