Rob

Khalil Greene = (our) Alex Gonzalez There's nothing wrong with that, as it can make him a 7 win player every now and then (an upgrade of five full wins over Theriot). But he's only got two more years under club control and he's starting to get expensive. Those five wins are huge in our current situation, but still I can't see the justification for trading away Pie. Even if Pie fails to meet most expectations, I don't see much of a chance that he can't eclipse the optimistic estimate of 14 wins over the next two seasons from Greene during Pie's six more years under club control. In a lot of situations (including Hendry's lame duck position), this makes a lot of sense... but I suppose I'm still hung up on Pie's upside. If I were as down on him as Meph apparently is though (which I would love to hear the explanation as to why), I would definately pull the trigger as well.

I was under the impression Soriano spoke some Japanese... he did spend some time over there, after all.

If the rumor of Hill and Marshall is true, Hendry needs to pull out of discussions right this moment. Roberts is an .825 OPS guy with average defense and very good speed. DeRosa is a .775 OPS guy with slightly better defense and much less speed. Meanwhile, losing Hill and Marshall would make our rotation... Z Lilly Marquis Dempster ??? This trade wouldn't improve our offense by nearly as much as it would hurt our pitching staff. We simply cannot afford to lose Rich Hill. He has a lot more value to this team than Brian Roberts does.... a LOT more.

I hate to say this, but I can actually see a sane thought process behind this. Hendry, for whatever reason (i.e. scouts), has decided that Fuld actually has a chance to develop into something worthwhile... whether that be a good 4th outfielder, or a bad starting center fielder, or whatever... it'd be something with a lot more value once he does manage to develop. Now, some other GM might've asked about Fuld, thinking he'd be nice roster filler for AAA, and been willing to offer Hendry peanuts for him. Hendry notices that it's entirely possible more people would come calling, not willing to give up anything of value for him. Yeah, I'd call him untouchable too. Think about it, on the off chance that Fuld has some huge fluke year filling in for an injured Pie, Hendry has already planted a seed that could get other GMs around the league thinking he's actually worth something (he meaning both Hendry himself and Fuld). Come this time next season, or even a few seasons from now, Hendry could stand to make a bit extra off the kid selling him off to some other unsuspecting GM. The problem is, that wasn't actually Hendry's thought process... but maybe the new GM could benefit from it if Hendry isn't around long enough after Fuld's fluke year to hand him a 3 year contract worth a few mil a season.

Feel free to point out where I've stepped out of line. You two going at it adds no value to the board. We get it, you guys don't like each other. The Odd Couple lasted five seasons. I see no reason this shouldn't.

Let's put all the facts out there. 1999 (18 years old) - #1 overall draft pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Played 56 very good games in rookie ball, moved up and played 16 horrible games in low class A. 2000 (19 years old) - Played 96 games at A ball with a low 800's OPS. Did get the MVP of the Future's Game that year, though. Injured in a car crash after the season. 2001 (20 years old) - Played in only 27 games, 23 of which came at AA where he posted a .457 OPS 2002 (21 years old) - Went back to high class A, where he played 56 games with an .866 OPS, before injuries forced him out. Suspended on July 15 for his second failed drug test. 2003 (22 years old) - During spring training, was sent to the minor league camp. Instead of reporting, he disappeared for six weeks. After his return, management sent him home. He did not return, citing "undisclosed off-field problems". 2004 (23 years old) - Suspended by MLB in February for another violation of the substance abuse rules. 2005 (24 years old) - Was not reinstated by MLB, as he had failed additional drug tests. Gets clean in early October. States that he had been in rehab eight times, and attempted suicide three times since 2003. 2006 (25 years old) - Reinstated June 30th. Begins play on July 4th, in low class A, where he posts a sub 700 OPS. His season ends 15 games later with a knee injury. While undeniably talented, he was going to be a 26 year old with huge makeup issues and absolutely no track record of success, seeing as how he had 15 games under his belt in the last 4 years. You can fault this Cubs regime for a lot, but this looked like a very low-risk proposition to make a decent amount of money at the Reds' expense.

For all the arguments stating that the level of competition has increased by so much, most people tend to forget the argument that these historic athletes would have access to newer methods of strength training, conditioning, and all these fancy new diets... not to mention that they'd have incentive to actually use them, considering the money being thrown around.

Pretty bad, but not Ryan Braun bad. Think -15 or so over a full season.

Do fielding stats factor into that at all? Seems like a shortstop would obviously have more assists, etc, than an outfielder. Yes, but they're adjusted for position (and Wagner did play all over the field). Wagner comes in at 228 runs above average over his entire career, 1027 above replacement level. Cobb comes in at 35 runs above average over his entire career, 559 above replacement level.

Um, that team doesn't lack in speed at all. Hanley - 51 SB Polanco - 7 SB Pujols - 2 SB ARod - 24 SB Magglio - 4 SB Holliday - 11 SB Vlad - 2 SB Martin - 21 SB And the only reason Pujols and Vlad had totals that low is because they were dealing with leg injuries all year... Normally Pujols is good for 7-8 steals and Vlad around 15. But even figuring just last year's numbers, it'd be a boost of about 50% in the steal department.

honus wagner played shortstop. really, really well, by all accounts. i realize you probably know that, but you probably realize that i know that cobb hit better than wagner over the course of his career. i suspect positional scarcity and defensive value slide wagner comfortably ahead of wagner, but i obviously have no way of proving that. WARP3 should do it. Wagner posted a 210.7 score for his career, while Cobb comes in at 205.4, despite Cobb playing about 250 more games.

It's not that bad. Cubs need: Starting SS Good backup catcher with clean bill of health (as an insurance policy for Soto) Jim Hendry "needs": Left-handed/switch hitters People who can run Replacements for our .791 OPS and .790 OPS cheap 2B and RF Lou Piniella "needs": RHSP so we wont have three lefties in our rotation

That's a much more interesting stat than his below .240 EqA. I wont disagree that Theriot did all we could ever ask of him. The problem is that we can't realistically ask him to do much of anything. He's not a good ballplayer, no matter how much gritty intangibility you want to pretend he adds.

1. Babe Ruth 2. Ted Williams 3. Barry Bonds 4. Honus Wagner 5. Willie Mays

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have Swisher... I'm just surprised nobody has mentioned how he's essentially Adam Dunn-lite.

If memory serves, players typically lose about 18% of their offensive value jumping up one league. Cedeno put up a line of .359/.422/.537 in AAA this year. That'd be the equivalent of about a .787 OPS. Even if you want to adjust his line down further because the PCL plays as a hitters league, you're stuck with the unavoidable fact that Cedeno has a much more lively bat than Theriot has. Then again, it doesn't take much to beat a .672 OPS. Keep in mind, Theriot has reached his ceiling. He might have a single fluke year where he could put up a .750 OPS in 450 AB or so, but he's not gonna top .700 too often. While Cedeno might revert back into his 2006 form (though highly unlikely, given two extra years of development time meaning so much for players that young), the risk is acceptible, as he's much more likely to eclipse Theriot's production by a similar margin. I just don't understand how people can keep thinking that Theriot is anything near a starting-caliber player for a contending team. He should have to fight for a starting job on the Royals.

Isn't the reported twins asking price Kemp, LaRoche, and Kershaw? No need to add Hu or upgrade from Kershaw to Billingsley to get it done. And the dodgers aren't willing to do that. I'm guessing Kershaw will be the sticking point for both teams. This would have been a whole lot easier if Elbert didn't have shoulder surgery. Upgrade from Kershaw to Billingsley? I've heard a lot of talk that teams prefer Kershaw.

First ballot? Really? He was solid for a long time and still put up great numbers into his 40's (steroids, anyone) but imo first ballot is really stretching it. Raines has more career value than McGwire, according to WARP3... and not by a slim margin. Rock is a first ballot HoF, even if nobody noticed it. He never finished higher than fifth in the mvp voting. He led his league once in batting average, twice in runs, but never led the league in hits, ops, hr's, or rbi. He wasn't particularly good in the postseason. The only hall of fame statistic he really has is his stolen bases. You also can't ignore his off-field problems as integrity and character are components of the vote. Combine all of that and he's a hall-of-famer maybe, but definitely not on his first try. MVP votes mean absolutely nothing, first off. Let's face it, the voters never get it right... hell, they've made a mess out of the vote pretty much every year in recent memory. As for the rest of Rock's accomplishments... 7 time all star Led the league in OBP once, placed in the top six an additional six times. Top ten in OPS four times, including a 2nd place finish. Top ten in runs 9 times, including two first place finishes, and two second place finishes. Ranked 46th all-time in his career for runs. Ranked 68th all-time in his career for hits. Ranked 100th all-time for total bases. Top ten finish in triples 9 times. Ranked 33rd all-time in walks. Ranked 5th all-time in steals. Top ten finish 11 times, including four times leading the league. Ranked 51st all-time in runs created. People always compare Rock to Rickey, since they were direct contemporaries. That's really not fair, seeing as how Rickey is a slam-dunk HoF player. Only a handful of players in history are gonna hold up to his standard. But when you compare Rock to all the other players in history, he definately belongs in the Hall. You're criticizing me for using mvp voting and then you use all-star game appearances. I guess I have a higher standard for guys getting in on their first try. You said yourself that Rickey is a slam dunk and Rock doesn't even compare, yet they're going into the same hall. I think the way to separate the "levels" of players is whether or not they got in on their first ballot. Rock scores lower than the average hall of famer using Bill James' HOF Standards and his HOF Monitor, couple that with his propensity to use blow and I just don't see any validation for him getting in this year. Fair enough on the All Star thing... but take a look at this. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=684 Rock's JAWS score - 102.1 Avg HoF LF - 86.8 And that's not just his longevity speaking... he's got a better peak than the average HoF left fielder too. My personal philosophy, if he's in the top 10 at his position, he should be voted in first ballot. Rock falls in that top ten.

First ballot? Really? He was solid for a long time and still put up great numbers into his 40's (steroids, anyone) but imo first ballot is really stretching it. Raines has more career value than McGwire, according to WARP3... and not by a slim margin. Rock is a first ballot HoF, even if nobody noticed it. He never finished higher than fifth in the mvp voting. He led his league once in batting average, twice in runs, but never led the league in hits, ops, hr's, or rbi. He wasn't particularly good in the postseason. The only hall of fame statistic he really has is his stolen bases. You also can't ignore his off-field problems as integrity and character are components of the vote. Combine all of that and he's a hall-of-famer maybe, but definitely not on his first try. MVP votes mean absolutely nothing, first off. Let's face it, the voters never get it right... hell, they've made a mess out of the vote pretty much every year in recent memory. As for the rest of Rock's accomplishments... 7 time all star Led the league in OBP once, placed in the top six an additional six times. Top ten in OPS four times, including a 2nd place finish. Top ten in runs 9 times, including two first place finishes, and two second place finishes. Ranked 46th all-time in his career for runs. Ranked 68th all-time in his career for hits. Ranked 100th all-time for total bases. Top ten finish in triples 9 times. Ranked 33rd all-time in walks. Ranked 5th all-time in steals. Top ten finish 11 times, including four times leading the league. Ranked 51st all-time in runs created. People always compare Rock to Rickey, since they were direct contemporaries. That's really not fair, seeing as how Rickey is a slam-dunk HoF player. Only a handful of players in history are gonna hold up to his standard. But when you compare Rock to all the other players in history, he definately belongs in the Hall.

First ballot? Really? He was solid for a long time and still put up great numbers into his 40's (steroids, anyone) but imo first ballot is really stretching it. Raines has more career value than McGwire, according to WARP3... and not by a slim margin. Rock is a first ballot HoF, even if nobody noticed it.

The way I'm reading this also indicates to me you're quite confident a deal will get done. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it. That's up to Matsui. He's the one who has to sign. All I'm saying is the Cubs are going hard after him. Bruce, why do you gotta make me cry?

This is a hilarious contract. Just to illustrate the closer thing, I thought I'd bring up the one aspect of Billy Beane's tenure that nobody can argue with... he's done a pretty good job finding closers for pennies on the dollar. Beane took over in 1997. Billy Taylor was his closer. In 1999 he flipped Taylor to the Mets for Jason Isringhausen. He let Isringhausen walk before the 2002 season, pocketed the draft picks, and traded Eric Hinske (meh) and Justin Miller to the Blue Jays for Billy Koch. Koch became the new closer (after posting an ERA above league average the year before). He let Koch's value get pumped back up, and then traded him to the White Sox with a couple minor leaguers for Keith Foulke, a former first round catcher, and a couple other minor names. Again, Beane threw Foulke in the closer role (after he had lost it the year before), pumped his value way up, and pocketed the draft picks. Even when he's failed, like with Octavio Dotel, he didn't give up too much. He gave up a couple prospects with limited ceilings in Mark Teahen and Mike Wood, aiming to hold onto Dotel until he got a good trade offer or could get the draft picks. Dotel got injured, but Wood is never gonna be missed, and Teahen had no place on the A's. It was certainly worth the risk. And recently, he drafted a guy and put him in as the closer. Street is costing them basically nothing. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that a good general manager will know better than to sink a good chunk of his payroll into a guy who pitches maybe 70 innings a year. In fact, closers are extremely easy to find, either from other systems or within your own. There's no reason you should ever sink that kind of money into a reliever, unless they're one of the extremely few that exhibit little to no variance in year-to-year performance and the club having enough already in their payroll that it's just a splash in the bucket (Rivera being one of the few).

We should always look at any offers on any of our players. It doesn't mean we should accept them, but Hendry wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't listen.

That had occured to me. Fukudome will be 30 this season, IIRC... while Matsui will be 32. A 2 year age gap in high school can lead to some degree of hazing... especially if the older kid is a star athlete.

Torn ACL and meniscus. I don't know medicine, but I don't believe the meniscus is the same thing as the MCL. The meniscus is just cartilage, though it's fairly important. Tearing that would cause your joint to lock up and making running fairly painful. The MCL is the medial collateral ligament, one of four ligaments (including the ACL-- anterior cruciate ligament) responsible for stablizing the knee. Injuring those is what causes the sensation of giving out, as well as causing pain.