Rob

Ya know, I could kiss you right now. Instead, let me just offer up a heartfelt thanks, though. I figure I owe you at least that much.

I'd love to hear a reputable source confirm... but I'm feeling a lot better right now.

Touche.

At the same time, the Cubs aren't exactly getting back top stars or top prospects. Coletti has no plans for Ethier right now, and Roberts isn't exactly Chase Utley. He's a marginal upgrade over the guy we got off the FA market for 4 mil a season.

Everybody else gets to make three-way trade proposals... I thought I'd try my hand. Cubs get Roberts, Ethier Dodgers get Bedard, Tejada, Murton Orioles get Pie, Kemp, McDonald, Gallagher, LaRoche, Hu That'd leave the teams looking like this... Cubs: C - Soto 1B - Lee 2B - Roberts 3B - Ramirez SS - Theriot LF - Soriano CF - Fukudome (assuming we get him) RF - Ethier SP1 - Z SP2 - Lilly SP3 - Hill SP4 - Marquis SP5 - Dempster/Marshall Dodgers: C - Martin 1B - Nomar 2B - Kent 3B - Tejada SS - Furcal LF - Pierre CF - Jones RF - Murton SP1 - Penny SP2 - Bedard SP3 - Billingsly SP4 - Schmidt SP5 - Lowe Orioles: C - Hernandez 1B - Millar/Moore 2B - ??? 3B - LaRoche SS - Hu LF - Kemp CF - Pie RF - Markakis The Orioles rotation would still be in shambles, but Gallagher and McDonald would be working their way up. Thoughts? I debated a few changes, so any constructive criticism is welcome.

Bruce posted in the Fukudome trade that he hasn't heard anything about this.

You leave my mother out of this!

We get a PTBN or cash don't we if he signs for less than his last contract? I don't even know that he has to sign for less. I think the CBA prohibits that kind of stipulation for a trade... as I understand it, the only real caveat was that he had to still be on the Twins roster at a specified date. Though of course, the Twins would have never signed him if it didn't mean a pay cut.

What? Well I had a 1.250 OPS in the MSBL last year too, does that make me a better SS than Cedeno? I am glad that Cedeno had success after getting THREE hits his first month of the season in MLB. Is the MSBL pretty equivalent to AA? If it were, you might have a shot. You have NO way of proving that, especially if you consider the statistics Cedeno put up in 2006 - a year that he did play every day. Those numbers do not even come close to what Theriot did in 2007. CEDENO 2006 - 151 534 51 131 18 7 6 41 8 8 17 109 .245 .271 .339 THERIOT 2007 - 148 537 80 143 30 2 3 45 28 4 49 50 .266 .326 .346 No way of proving that? How about thousands of seasons worth of hard statistics? Based on a players age and performance, one can fairly reliably predict what they will do from one season to the next, simply by comparing them to what every other player in their situation has done. You seem to have absolutely no grasp of what the importance of age relative to league means to a player's development. That's Player Evaluation 101. I don't have to use any facts but the statistics. Thanks. I'd never laughed so hard in my life. It's like you actually believe you know what the statistics are showing.

Theriot's OPS last season - .672 Cedeno's AAA OPS last season - .959 Despite what you might want to infer from the very limited sample size for Cedeno at the major league level last season, there's absolutely zero chance that Cedeno would not have outperformed Theriot given a full season. You don't post an OPS nearly 300 points higher than a guy, then go to being a worse option... simply by moving up one level. Cedeno's MLB line last season was an anomaly based on his small sample size, nothing more. On no planet was Theriot likely to be better last season, or this coming season. This is fact. You can use utterly ridiculous statements to try to argue it, but it doesn't change the reality of the situation. Cedeno > Theriot. Now and forever.

Theriot saw 3.53 P/PA last year. He ranked 67th out of the 75 batters with enough PA to qualify. I wouldn't exactly say he's much less likely to swing at junk and I certainly wouldn't qualify his approach as "discipline"

Your guess is as good as mine. If the Cubs land Fukudome, I think they will be more willing to trade Pie especially if Colvin is progressing. Hendry keeps saying Pie is untouchable, but I got to believe if Hendry becomes desperate for Brian Roberts, he'll put Pie in that deal. With Pie, Theriot and the pitcher's spot, the lineup has 3 automatic outs (save for Z). Theriot is now an "automatic out?" He's pretty close to it. And his walk rate will probably drop next season considering how abysmal his P/PA was last year.

They don't have new ones, but FWIW their 2008 projections in the 5-year forecast are as follows... Of course this is all projected from after the 2006 season, not this season Considering the numbers Cedeno posted last year, his projection will increase by a nice chunk... Theriot's will stay about the same. Yeah, even the projections posted after Cedeno's disastrous 2006 favor him... that's hilarious and sad at the same time.

Unless I am mistaken, all international merchandise revenue goes directly into revenue sharing, as well as online sales except for zip codes in a 200 mile radius. The only way the Cubs can profit directly off of this deal is by selling ads to Japanese, or a cable deal. One way is to have the green screen behind home plate display Japanese ads whenever Fukudome is batting, because obviously they'll get more play in Japan than say, Ryan Theriot's. I think you've got it right, unless the newest CBA changed things.

I do. But only because I'm being realistic. As long as Theriot is on this team, Cedeno is never going to get the shot he deserves. Lou and Hendry have way too much of a man-crush on him. If Theriot were to retire tomorrow, I think our team would be better for it... simply because we'd have to go out and find somebody to fill the position, or give Cedeno the nod. In a perfect world, I wouldn't mind Theriot as a backup. But I don't see Lou using him in that role. And I just want to point this out one more time. Yes, at age 23 Cedeno was horrible in 2006 at the major league level... posting an OPS of .610. At the same age, Theriot split time pretty evenly between A ball and AA, posting OPSs of .671 and .621, respectively. We don't even have to look outside the organization to replace Theriot. Cedeno is the better in-house option, and by a very significant margin.

Nobody has that info. Speculation is that the Padres have offered somewhere slightly north of 3/30. Cubs' estimates are all over the map... anywhere from 3/45, to 4/60, to 5/75.

This sort of outrageous sentiment towards him is exactly the reason I said we'd be better off cutting him this offseason. Theriot seems like a fine young man, but he is not good enough to be our starting shortstop... and as long as he's on this team, Lou is holding to the same antiquated notion of what a SS should be that he'll continue to start, and continue bringing this team down with him.

Wait, I'm a bit confused. I was under the impression that Kevin Towers said something about expecting to hear back from Fukudome soon... but reading some of these posts, I get the impression that the offer comes off the table today. Am I just reading too much into this?

I wasn't questioning whether the Cubs got better between 2006 and 2007. I was questioning whether it was smart allocation of resources. Pointing out that the NL Central was weak works in Hendry's favor, as it increased his odds of making it to the playoffs, and having the spending spree actually pay off in the end. Sadly, this was not the case. It was a calculated risk, and Hendry was well aware that giving large contracts to Soriano, Lilly, and Marquis would negatively impact his ability to add meaningful contributors in the next few seasons (this one included). Let's be completely honest here, this team is not heading in the right direction. We have an aging core who wont be improving, while occupying a significant portion of the payroll. Lee, Soriano, Aramis, Lilly and Z alone are gonna account for: 2008 - 62 mil 2009 - 74.4 2010 - 76.625 And those numbers don't include signing bonuses that may be factored into payroll... Considering Hendry's penchant for dolling out multi-year contracts to overpriced mediocrities, we're gonna have real troubles fielding a winning team. Don't get me wrong now, I like the fact that he's looking at Brian Roberts and Kosuke Fukudome. But unless our payroll shoots through the roof, we can't keep affording to put guys like that out there... Our window is closing. Hendry can continue to fill in around our big performers and pray for a miracle, but in 2010, we're gonna have real trouble. And please, stop referring to people as "leadoff" hitters. If you want to give Roberts his due credit for getting on base and stealing at an excellent clip, go ahead... but we need to concentrate on getting the best eight players on the field. We can worry about where in the lineup to bat them later.

Greene is a good player who is extremely hindered by playing in Petco. He'd also be replacing a player that isn't good. As to your "points": 1. Theriot bats right handed. Moot point. 2. Again, neither does Theriot. Except here, Greene has a lot of power for a SS and his numbers would improve at Wrigley. 3. Strike outs? Lame. 4. Batting Average? Super lame. 5. First, defense isn't near as important as offense. Second, errors aren't a good way to judge defense at all. Third, Greene made 11 errors last year at SS, Theriot 8 (and 11 overall). Plus, his number at Petco are pretty much even with Theriots total numbers. And Greene's numbers on the road destroy his numbers at home. I believe Meph showed a comparison that suggested he would be around .800-.820(low end) at Wrigley. I'd be interested to know just what parks elevate his road numbers so much. Petco isn't the only poor hitter's park in the NL West. OPS by ballpark in 2007 Chase Field - .833 Turner Field - .154 Wrigley Field - .744 Great American Ballpark - 1.648 Coors Field - .677 Dolphin Stadium - .557 Minute Maid Park - .619 Dodger Stadium - .724 Miller Park - 1.154 Shea Stadium - 1.411 Citizen's Bank Park - .643 PNC Park - .808 Petco Park - .670 AT&T Park - .916 Busch Stadium - .667 RFK Stadium - .643 I realized after the first half that career numbers would mean more than these extremely small sample sizes, but I am far too lazy to type those out too. So look here. http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=greenkh01&year=c

Pretty much anything an agent says is just a ploy to up the ante. My guess is that they want San Diego to get closer to Chicago's offering price and if it did come down to geography, San Diego wins. Agree, this isn't Brian Giles coming home to San Diego and offering a hometown discount. If the Cubs have the best offer (like Soriano) they get him. If they don't have the best offer (like Furcal), they won't get him. And the stark difference between those two situations is that Fukudome has explicitly stated that he wants three years. No more, no less. It should be pretty easy for Fukudome to take a look at the total dollar value of these two offers and decide which one means more money, where it was actually a question for Furcal.

Are you suggesting Theriot is the sole or even primary reason for the Cubs winning the NLC? I wasn't referring to Theriot at all. That doesn't even make sense. More so the complete bashing of Hendry, who made some pretty good additions before the 2007 season. That's a questionable statement. The NL central is pitifully weak. Hendry saw an opening to compete, and threw a bunch of money at some players. It worked, but Soriano's contract is going to be hurting us badly later down the line, and I don't expect Lilly or Marquis to live up to the money their making every year either. He sold out a chunk of our future flexibility to take a short term shot... I mean, think what we could have done this offseason without the 26.375 million (signing bonuses not included) going against this year's budget from those three alone. (and that number is only gonna escalate, as the backloading kicks in.) ARod could have been a legit possibility.

As I understand it, I think he's expected to make a decision as to which team to sign with in relatively short order.

I have a bad feeling too, but that's mostly based on our track record. Then again, we're typically not used to being the favorites to sign good players...

I can't see MacPhail getting any votes right now. He didn't do too well in his tenure here, but in his limited time over there, he's recognized that it's imperative to trade off his big names for some new talent. I'm leaning towards Bavasi right now, personally.