Rob

I wasn't questioning whether the Cubs got better between 2006 and 2007. I was questioning whether it was smart allocation of resources. Pointing out that the NL Central was weak works in Hendry's favor, as it increased his odds of making it to the playoffs, and having the spending spree actually pay off in the end. Sadly, this was not the case. It was a calculated risk, and Hendry was well aware that giving large contracts to Soriano, Lilly, and Marquis would negatively impact his ability to add meaningful contributors in the next few seasons (this one included). Let's be completely honest here, this team is not heading in the right direction. We have an aging core who wont be improving, while occupying a significant portion of the payroll. Lee, Soriano, Aramis, Lilly and Z alone are gonna account for: 2008 - 62 mil 2009 - 74.4 2010 - 76.625 And those numbers don't include signing bonuses that may be factored into payroll... Considering Hendry's penchant for dolling out multi-year contracts to overpriced mediocrities, we're gonna have real troubles fielding a winning team. Don't get me wrong now, I like the fact that he's looking at Brian Roberts and Kosuke Fukudome. But unless our payroll shoots through the roof, we can't keep affording to put guys like that out there... Our window is closing. Hendry can continue to fill in around our big performers and pray for a miracle, but in 2010, we're gonna have real trouble. And please, stop referring to people as "leadoff" hitters. If you want to give Roberts his due credit for getting on base and stealing at an excellent clip, go ahead... but we need to concentrate on getting the best eight players on the field. We can worry about where in the lineup to bat them later.

Greene is a good player who is extremely hindered by playing in Petco. He'd also be replacing a player that isn't good. As to your "points": 1. Theriot bats right handed. Moot point. 2. Again, neither does Theriot. Except here, Greene has a lot of power for a SS and his numbers would improve at Wrigley. 3. Strike outs? Lame. 4. Batting Average? Super lame. 5. First, defense isn't near as important as offense. Second, errors aren't a good way to judge defense at all. Third, Greene made 11 errors last year at SS, Theriot 8 (and 11 overall). Plus, his number at Petco are pretty much even with Theriots total numbers. And Greene's numbers on the road destroy his numbers at home. I believe Meph showed a comparison that suggested he would be around .800-.820(low end) at Wrigley. I'd be interested to know just what parks elevate his road numbers so much. Petco isn't the only poor hitter's park in the NL West. OPS by ballpark in 2007 Chase Field - .833 Turner Field - .154 Wrigley Field - .744 Great American Ballpark - 1.648 Coors Field - .677 Dolphin Stadium - .557 Minute Maid Park - .619 Dodger Stadium - .724 Miller Park - 1.154 Shea Stadium - 1.411 Citizen's Bank Park - .643 PNC Park - .808 Petco Park - .670 AT&T Park - .916 Busch Stadium - .667 RFK Stadium - .643 I realized after the first half that career numbers would mean more than these extremely small sample sizes, but I am far too lazy to type those out too. So look here. http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=greenkh01&year=c

Pretty much anything an agent says is just a ploy to up the ante. My guess is that they want San Diego to get closer to Chicago's offering price and if it did come down to geography, San Diego wins. Agree, this isn't Brian Giles coming home to San Diego and offering a hometown discount. If the Cubs have the best offer (like Soriano) they get him. If they don't have the best offer (like Furcal), they won't get him. And the stark difference between those two situations is that Fukudome has explicitly stated that he wants three years. No more, no less. It should be pretty easy for Fukudome to take a look at the total dollar value of these two offers and decide which one means more money, where it was actually a question for Furcal.

Are you suggesting Theriot is the sole or even primary reason for the Cubs winning the NLC? I wasn't referring to Theriot at all. That doesn't even make sense. More so the complete bashing of Hendry, who made some pretty good additions before the 2007 season. That's a questionable statement. The NL central is pitifully weak. Hendry saw an opening to compete, and threw a bunch of money at some players. It worked, but Soriano's contract is going to be hurting us badly later down the line, and I don't expect Lilly or Marquis to live up to the money their making every year either. He sold out a chunk of our future flexibility to take a short term shot... I mean, think what we could have done this offseason without the 26.375 million (signing bonuses not included) going against this year's budget from those three alone. (and that number is only gonna escalate, as the backloading kicks in.) ARod could have been a legit possibility.

As I understand it, I think he's expected to make a decision as to which team to sign with in relatively short order.

I have a bad feeling too, but that's mostly based on our track record. Then again, we're typically not used to being the favorites to sign good players...

I can't see MacPhail getting any votes right now. He didn't do too well in his tenure here, but in his limited time over there, he's recognized that it's imperative to trade off his big names for some new talent. I'm leaning towards Bavasi right now, personally.

It would seem that even after Fukudome signs, the Cubs will need at least one more Japanese player. Any other FA's still available there? Dave Roberts could probably be had for a pittance. He's making 6.5 mil each of the next two years, and he's coming off a .695 OPS season at the age of 35. Wait, nevermind, he's on the Giants. Sabean probably thinks he's just about to hit his prime.

What do you give up on? You made a terrible argument and got called out on it. You don't want to get busted out for logical fallacies? Bring something better than cherry picked stats to the table. Cherry picked stats win ballgames.

The problem is that Prior, injuries and everything, could get a better deal than what the one-year team option would be even if he sat out the entire year and didn't pitch once. Some team out there would be willing to pay for another year of rehab with a team option, which guarantees him a few mil more and gets him the hell out of chicago... which seems to be his priority.

I gave up trying to take it seriously, because half the responses weren't serious to begin with and everytime I said "get serious", I'm accused of only letting players in that I want. Only a unbelievable racist would put Ty Cobb on a list of good baseball players. "Only an unbelievable racist..."

That was Jason Szuminski (sp?) back in 2004, I think.

Ahhh, of course I missed Jake Fox... the man without a position. I'll edit the original now.

Looks like it's 39 unless I missed somebody. (2) C: Soto, Blanco (3) 1B: Lee, Ward, Fox (I guess this is where to put him) (2) 2B: DeRosa, Fontenot (1) 3B: Ramirez (2) SS: Theriot, Cedeno (6) OF: Soriano, Pie, Murton, Patterson, Pagan, Fuld (17) RHP: Zambrano, Marquis, Wood, Prior, Marmol, Wuertz, Howry, Hart, Dempster, Gallagher, Guzman, Mateo, Harben, Ascanio, Petrick, Samardzija, Lahey (6) LHP: Lilly, Hill, Eyre, Marshall, Cotts, Pignatiello Edit: Threw Lahey in there as well.

Apparently, we missed pictures of kittens and sea lions. Any actual news about this trade? The last update was the Baltimore writer saying there was a "significant offer" on the table, and it might include Gallagher and Murton. That was around 10 last night, IIRC.

Don't know if you intended to imply Roberts is a better defender than DeRosa, but that's certainly debatable.

Khalil Greene = (our) Alex Gonzalez There's nothing wrong with that, as it can make him a 7 win player every now and then (an upgrade of five full wins over Theriot). But he's only got two more years under club control and he's starting to get expensive. Those five wins are huge in our current situation, but still I can't see the justification for trading away Pie. Even if Pie fails to meet most expectations, I don't see much of a chance that he can't eclipse the optimistic estimate of 14 wins over the next two seasons from Greene during Pie's six more years under club control. In a lot of situations (including Hendry's lame duck position), this makes a lot of sense... but I suppose I'm still hung up on Pie's upside. If I were as down on him as Meph apparently is though (which I would love to hear the explanation as to why), I would definately pull the trigger as well.

I was under the impression Soriano spoke some Japanese... he did spend some time over there, after all.

If the rumor of Hill and Marshall is true, Hendry needs to pull out of discussions right this moment. Roberts is an .825 OPS guy with average defense and very good speed. DeRosa is a .775 OPS guy with slightly better defense and much less speed. Meanwhile, losing Hill and Marshall would make our rotation... Z Lilly Marquis Dempster ??? This trade wouldn't improve our offense by nearly as much as it would hurt our pitching staff. We simply cannot afford to lose Rich Hill. He has a lot more value to this team than Brian Roberts does.... a LOT more.

I hate to say this, but I can actually see a sane thought process behind this. Hendry, for whatever reason (i.e. scouts), has decided that Fuld actually has a chance to develop into something worthwhile... whether that be a good 4th outfielder, or a bad starting center fielder, or whatever... it'd be something with a lot more value once he does manage to develop. Now, some other GM might've asked about Fuld, thinking he'd be nice roster filler for AAA, and been willing to offer Hendry peanuts for him. Hendry notices that it's entirely possible more people would come calling, not willing to give up anything of value for him. Yeah, I'd call him untouchable too. Think about it, on the off chance that Fuld has some huge fluke year filling in for an injured Pie, Hendry has already planted a seed that could get other GMs around the league thinking he's actually worth something (he meaning both Hendry himself and Fuld). Come this time next season, or even a few seasons from now, Hendry could stand to make a bit extra off the kid selling him off to some other unsuspecting GM. The problem is, that wasn't actually Hendry's thought process... but maybe the new GM could benefit from it if Hendry isn't around long enough after Fuld's fluke year to hand him a 3 year contract worth a few mil a season.

Feel free to point out where I've stepped out of line. You two going at it adds no value to the board. We get it, you guys don't like each other. The Odd Couple lasted five seasons. I see no reason this shouldn't.

Let's put all the facts out there. 1999 (18 years old) - #1 overall draft pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Played 56 very good games in rookie ball, moved up and played 16 horrible games in low class A. 2000 (19 years old) - Played 96 games at A ball with a low 800's OPS. Did get the MVP of the Future's Game that year, though. Injured in a car crash after the season. 2001 (20 years old) - Played in only 27 games, 23 of which came at AA where he posted a .457 OPS 2002 (21 years old) - Went back to high class A, where he played 56 games with an .866 OPS, before injuries forced him out. Suspended on July 15 for his second failed drug test. 2003 (22 years old) - During spring training, was sent to the minor league camp. Instead of reporting, he disappeared for six weeks. After his return, management sent him home. He did not return, citing "undisclosed off-field problems". 2004 (23 years old) - Suspended by MLB in February for another violation of the substance abuse rules. 2005 (24 years old) - Was not reinstated by MLB, as he had failed additional drug tests. Gets clean in early October. States that he had been in rehab eight times, and attempted suicide three times since 2003. 2006 (25 years old) - Reinstated June 30th. Begins play on July 4th, in low class A, where he posts a sub 700 OPS. His season ends 15 games later with a knee injury. While undeniably talented, he was going to be a 26 year old with huge makeup issues and absolutely no track record of success, seeing as how he had 15 games under his belt in the last 4 years. You can fault this Cubs regime for a lot, but this looked like a very low-risk proposition to make a decent amount of money at the Reds' expense.

For all the arguments stating that the level of competition has increased by so much, most people tend to forget the argument that these historic athletes would have access to newer methods of strength training, conditioning, and all these fancy new diets... not to mention that they'd have incentive to actually use them, considering the money being thrown around.

Pretty bad, but not Ryan Braun bad. Think -15 or so over a full season.

Do fielding stats factor into that at all? Seems like a shortstop would obviously have more assists, etc, than an outfielder. Yes, but they're adjusted for position (and Wagner did play all over the field). Wagner comes in at 228 runs above average over his entire career, 1027 above replacement level. Cobb comes in at 35 runs above average over his entire career, 559 above replacement level.