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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Torn ACL and meniscus. I don't know medicine, but I don't believe the meniscus is the same thing as the MCL. The meniscus is just cartilage, though it's fairly important. Tearing that would cause your joint to lock up and making running fairly painful. The MCL is the medial collateral ligament, one of four ligaments (including the ACL-- anterior cruciate ligament) responsible for stablizing the knee. Injuring those is what causes the sensation of giving out, as well as causing pain.
  2. According to an old article on Baseball Prospectus, that's the case.
  3. We don't even have five shortstops. The only one who can really play there right now is Cedeno... Matsui would need to be healthy to play there.
  4. I knew there was a reason I got drunk... my subconscious must have known that it was time for Hendry to do something this stupid.
  5. I read it as "Fook U Doe May" I caught the joke.
  6. His music sucks. The album title isn't gonna be enough to get me interested.
  7. Offense is more important than defense, typically. Nobody is going to argue that. The question is whether the difference in defensive value between the best defensive SS in the league and an historically bad defensive season from a 3B is enough to cover the gap on their offensive values. If you can translate their defensive plays directly into runs saved/allowed, you can compare that directly to what they did with their bats. For this one, I'm gonna take a look at BRAA and FRAA. Braun cost his team 25 runs on defense compared to the average 3B, while adding 36 runs with his bat. Tulowitzki saved his team 24 runs on defense compared to the average SS, and added 10 runs with his bat. Offensively speaking, Tulo isn't in Braun's class. But in this rare case, his defense was certainly enough to cover the gap.
  8. I know these numbers (especially FRAR) aren't exatly the best that can be found, but I'm feeling somewhat lazy. Batting Runs Above Replacement (BRAR) and Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR) Tulowitzki: 30 BRAR 46 FRAR Braun: 50 BRAR -15 FRAR Tulo got absolutely screwed. In terms of overall value, Tulo was more than twice as valuable. Even giving Braun an equal amount of playing time, Tulo would have easily been the best choice.
  9. Kaz Matsui is a pretty bad baseball player.
  10. Hanley is getting absolutely robbed. I see absolutely no chance he stays with the Marlins a day longer than he has to. He's got to realize he needs some real media coverage.
  11. I'm still gonna call them the DRays.
  12. Dempster's one good year as a starter was back in 2000. If we're using Hendry's logic then we better sign Darin Erstad since he was also good in 2000. Don't even joke about that.
  13. You're missing the meaning. The idea isn't to be removing those factors, it's to be able to properly see how much they help or hurt players. Wouldn't it be real nice if a GM knew what taking a player like Dante Bichette out of Coors Field would do before signing him to a nice contract? Or how about what would happen if you took Chan Ho Park out of Dodger Stadium and put him in Arlington? We already know which players are good and bad. Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez are good no matter what numbers you're trying to use. Neifi Perez and Jose Macias aren't. The metrics are more designed at trying to separate those guys in the middle of the pack, where ballparks and other things the players have no control over can make a much bigger difference. Ok, let's run with this. Jamie Moyer has 230 career wins. Sandy Koufax had 165. Now I'm not going to insult you and try to say that your logic would mean that Moyer is a better pitcher than Koufax. I know you wouldn't buy that. But you know Koufax is a better pitcher because you look past just the wins. You take a look at the ERA, you take a look at the difference in games pitched. That's all these metrics are doing. They're grabbing all the pertinent information and putting them into nicer numbers. They certainly aren't ridiculous. They're just how you separate guys like Juan Pierre (career .301 batting average and not a very useful player) from Joe Cronin (career .301 batting average and an extremely useful player). What is it you "old school" guys like to talk about? The "little things"? Well the little things like ballparks, league scoring environment, etc... all add up to be pretty important when valuing a player correctly. It's how you know Yaz was fantastic in 1968, and how you know Three Finger Brown isn't exactly Pedro Martinez, despite the 2.06 career ERA to Pedro's 2.80. I think it's time to start giving a little more credit to these metrics than you currently do.
  14. Ya know, I was drunk all weekend, but I was pretty sure something was different when I got on here. Kudos Tim, it looks great!
  15. No fisk? I have a weird love of Lombardi. Honestly, he shouldn't be on the list and Fisk should probably slide in at ten... but I stand by my decision.
  16. 1. Bench 2. Berra 3. Campanella 4. Piazza 5. Cochrane 6. Simmons 7. Carter 8. Lombardi 9. Rodriguez 10. Hartnett
  17. I wonder if Bruce would chime in on the question of whether or not we tender Prior a contract?
  18. The problem with this line of thinking is that we are assuming we'll act stupid and not install Marshall as the #5.
  19. You'd lose a lot of games with those guys in the field. You'd win more than enough to cover the gap with their performance at the plate.
  20. Realistically speaking, DLee, Aramis, Sori, DeRo, Z, and Lilly are pretty much locks to go into next season with their same old jobs. Additionally, Hill and Marquis are extremely like to keep their spots, and Soto seems to have guaranteed himself the starting catcher spot through the first few months of the season. This leaves the following positions relatively open, and these are the people currently slated to play there: SS - Theriot CF - Jones/Pie RF - Jones/Murton SP5 - Marshall The average NL SS hit .279/.337/.420, Theriot hit .266/.326/.346 The average NL CF hit .273/.336/.426, Jones hit .285/.335/.400, Pie hit .215/.271/.333 The average NL RF hit .275/.344/.442, Jones hit .285/.335/.400, Murton hit .281/.352/.438 The average NL P had an ERA of 4.43, Marshall had an ERA of 3.92. More than anywhere else, the need at SS is really glaring. Pie is likely to get much, much better... Murton is also likely to do a bit better. Theriot and Jones are about where you can expect them, though... and we really can't afford the likely event that Theriot duplicates his 2007 season.
  21. Shame Uehara isn't eligible. He actually stood a chance to be a bargain. At any rate, I guess now is as good a time as any to state my official support for Fukudome. In my little world, I'd be fine with watching Pie cover CF and Murton cover RF for a few years. (Well, I'd rather move Sori to right and put Murton back in left, but whatever) But since I don't forsee the both of them actually getting jobs on this club, Fukudome could work out real well for us. I keep hearing he profiles more as a RF, but that he could play a slightly sub-par CF. Seeing as how Pie is almost certainly getting sent to AAA to start the next season, I'd love for Fukudome to have CF until Pie is deemed ready, and then just move Fukudome over to right.
  22. If Dusty were smart... CF - Hamilton 2B - Phillips LF - Dunn RF - Griffey 3B - Encarnacion 1B - Hatteberg C - Ross SS - Gonzalez Trade Griffey or Dunn after June 15th, bring up Bruce. Trade Hatteberg and bring up Votto.
  23. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7358706 Apparently he talks about it in his new book.
  24. Rotoworld is now reporting that MLB was aware of Byrd's purchases, as he has a small tumor at the base of his pituitary gland. Seems like this might be a legitimate medical thing.
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