Rob
-
Posts
15,269 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
13
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Rob
-
Cubs fans are idiots. Ibanez is a worse defender than Bradley and has been terrible lately. Bradley's closing fast. And that's to mention nothing of years two and three of the contract.
-
I'm not. At all. I just said it in the post above yours.
-
Ladies and gentlemen, your list of 2010 FA Outfielders per Cots. Bobby Abreu LAA Garret Anderson ATL Rick Ankiel STL Rocco Baldelli BOS Jason Bay BOS Marlon Byrd TEX Mike Cameron MIL Frank Catalanotto TEX Endy Chavez SEA Coco Crisp * KC Carl Crawford * TB Johnny Damon NYY David Dellucci TOR Jermaine Dye * CWS Darin Erstad HOU Cliff Floyd SD Ryan Freel BAL Brian Giles SD Ken Griffey Jr. SEA Vladimir Guerrero LAA Matt Holliday OAK Geoff Jenkins * PHI Reed Johnson CHC Andruw Jones TEX Austin Kearns * WAS Hideki Matusi NYY Jason Michaels CLE Xavier Nady NYY Magglio Ordonez * DET Manny Ramirez * LAD Dave Roberts SF Gary Sheffield DET Randy Winn SF
-
My post that set this whole thing off was that I said I was getting a Starlin Castro - Ronny Cedeno vibe. And because Cedeno didn't pan out I think some people took that the wrong way. At one point Cedeno was an excellent prospect, and if it were somehow possible to magically press a reset button and have another shot with him, I'd take it in a heartbeat. It wasn't meant to take anything away from Castro at all.
-
8/26 Nationals (Hernandez) vs. Cubs (Harden) 7:05CT, CSN
Rob replied to E.J.'s topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Why the hell is anybody mentioning RBI? RBI are completely meaningless as an individual stat, but it's not even like Bradley is hitting worse with runners on... he's actually been much better. And while one could make the "garbage time" argument, I'd be just as justified saying he's been trying to help pull our team out of this all month. It's not his fault nobody else is really helping him. -
And I think that completely glossing over Cedeno's .355/.403/.518 line at AAA at age 22 is a bit dishonest too. Cedeno's maturation took a FAR different route than you can expect Castro's to. I see no issue with trying to take a step back before looking at it. Hey, I'm not saying Castro isn't a better prospect than Cedeno was at this age. He absolutely is, and not by a small margin. I was just commenting on the fact that there are quite a few similarities.
-
With a much better minor league pedigree and a proven ability to hit for average, mitigating his chances for a Cedeno-esque flop. yeah, i don't see how anyone can look at the two guys and say they're very similar. cedeno struck out in nearly 19% of his PAs from ages 19-21. castro was at 15.3% last year and this year he's under 10% while playing as one of the youngest players in each league. he clearly has contact skills that ronny cedeno did not possess. i'd be more concerned that he turns into rey ordonez - a guy who makes a lot of contact but doesn't make solid enough contact to hit for good average - than ronny cedeno. You dont see it? Really? Two young shortstops with standout defensive tools and trouble making the routine plays... both of whom have line drive strokes and attack the ball early in the count. Granted, Castro is beginning to show some signs of patience at the plate as of late... but until that the only real difference was that Cedeno had more trouble putting the bat on the ball... though he hit it a bit harder when he made contact. Yes... at the same age Castro has a huge leg up on Cedeno... but we really cant be expecting the sort of AAA breakout Cedeno had either. In this case I'd suggest trying to take a big step back and look at the big picture instead of trying to compare them year by year.
-
Anybody complaining about Bradley is racist. There, I said it.
-
Am I the only one getting a Starlin Castro - Ronny Cedeno vibe?
-
I'd say he's near the top. Soriano clearly tops it. But your biggest offseason acquisition disappointing in a big way is a significant problem. The fact that others make more than him is pretty meaningless. Most of those guys have been pretty damn good. Okay.. if the money is meaningless, the fact that he was the biggest offseason acquisition should be as well. So let's just look at production. Bradley is producing like a league average RF despite the power outage. 14th in MLB and 6th in NL in EqA amongst RFs. I bet you can name quite a few players on our team that aren't playing at a league average clip.
-
Bradley is making the 7th most on the team this year and has an OBP floating around .400. His power outage sucks, and he doesn't exactly look pretty out in the field... but if you're making a list of problems on this team, he's nowhere near the top.
-
Bah. Flawed is a misrepresentation. Could it be done better? Absolutely. But it still works. See... what you're doing is where I suffer. I can't figure out how to import data directly into the spreadsheets I already have set up... forcing me to type in each and every line by hand each time I want to calculate anything. Best of luck to you though... there's no such thing as too many people crunching numbers. I can't wait to see what you come up with.
-
You're misinterpreting the purpose of my work slightly. I wasn't attempting to predict values for next season... of course actual BABIP would have a higher correlation for subsequent seasons when taken across such a broad sample size. I'm merely attempting to pinpoint anomalies within this season... a task which this is well suited for. In addition, I am quite lazy. Do you realize it would take me longer simply to calculate xbabip for one batter than it did for me to put all of this together with a simple LD%+.120?
-
To be fair, I doubt most of the posters in this thread know where BABIP = LD + .120 comes from. To be honest, there's really no reason to. It's used simply because it's a good approximation. If you need more than an approximation, there are better formulas to use that incorporate other factors into the mix.
-
Ok, that would be pretty sweet.
-
He's a troll. Why would anybody expect any different from him?
-
Sickels goes back over the Cubs top 20 from the preseason. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/8/19/995012/chicago-cubs-top-20-pre-season
-
Nice to see Castro getting that. I tend to take defensive statistics with a grain of salt in the minors, simply because the fields aren't always as well tended as they are at the major league level. The scouting reports have always been glowing though, and I like to see they seem to be getting even better.
-
More recently, Richie Ashburn and Sammy Sosa both put up seasons of 116 walks.
-
Jimmy Sheckard had 147 in 1911.
-
I too love Milton.
-
That flipped the light switch to on. Thank you for bringing me out of the dark. Now I feel even more dumb, lol. Nice work, btw, as everyone has said. Don't feel stupid; I did a terrible job explaining what I was doing. Glad to hear you get it now though.
-
And thanks for the kind words guys.
-
I'll clarify a bit, just for you. The process isn't hard. Imagine for a moment you know how many ABs a player has, and their batting average... but you want to know how many hits they had. You simply multiply them together and voila! Well, we're doing the same thing... multiplying the expected batting average on balls in play (which is LD% + .120) by the number of balls in play. That gives you the expected number of hits in that situation. So now you have the right number of hits... you just have to figure out how to add the missing ones back in to the players actual line. Since all I'm trying to do in this situation is neutralize luck (and not bring their career lines into the equation at all), I simply add the hits back in the same ratio of singles, doubles, and triples they already had this season. There are two routes to go from here. Obviously, these numbers are going to be bringing back fractions... so you could either round them off and give the whole line, or just calculate AVG, OBP, and SLUG as is. Since these expected lines are supposed to read as a probability, it's more accurate to just straight out calculate the slash stats.
-
Bench players up. Really, it looks like our offense has been somewhat unlucky on the whole this year... though it's very interesting to see how many players were almost dead on. Of course, that's just in regards to what happens after we put the ball in play... you can make a whole different argument about who is over and under performing based on preseason expectations.
