Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-25-10
Rob replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Don't fool yourself into thinking that matters to Goony. -
Re: Five best and worst MLB broadcasting teams
Rob replied to Formerly Snayke's topic in General Baseball Talk
This is correct. It's almost like leading off with Aaron Miles It's actually nothing like that since the pitcher batting eighth is as inconsequential as Manny Ramirez batting fourth and David Ortiz batting third. You're giving a pitcher more PAs than certain position players over the course of the year. That's just annoying, not to mention stupid It makes surprisingly little difference as is. If they moved Pujols up to 2nd in the order, the pitcher 8th thing would be a significant benefit. As is, it's about a wash. -
I think your fast track is a bit slow. Fast track would be finishing in Daytona this year. Starting off next year there, aggressively promoted to Tenn after a few weeks of success. Jump to Iowa to start 2012, big league callup whenever the need arrises.
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Theriot has also been caught five times. All in all, he's generated about .29 runs with his stolen bases. Everything considered, his baserunning has actually cost us about a half a run compared to what an average player would provide us (an average player, not an average 2B). Let's not pretend his speed is doing us even that slight amount of good. Hell, Theriot has basically been the definition of a replacement level player this year. That said, Fontenot is our best option, and has been all season.
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I'm not quite as big into the camp of devaluing relievers, but this is interesting: Mariano Rivera total WAR over 16 seasons: 36.0 Javier Vazquez total WAR over 13 seasons: 52.6 That's not really fair. WAR doesn't include leverage... and it is based on FIP, a metric which Rivera seems to have shown somewhat of an ability to outperform, and Vazquez has inexplicably shown an ability to perennially underperform.
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Once again: Career 105 wRC+, above average defensively in left. He succeeded at the major league level.
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Mo and KRod, almost. Making $13m in arbitration is unlikely, but getting that much in free agency is possible if he maintains his level of performance for the next few years. Remember, the last year of arbitration is 100% of market value. It's not like earlier arb years where there's a discout involved. No arbiter is going to give a guy with less than 100 career saves 13M Maybe he'll go all John Smoltz on us next year, who cares. I never picked out the damn number, just implied there was a slim chance that it could happen. And I stand by that.
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Mo and KRod, almost. Making $13m in arbitration is unlikely, but getting that much in free agency is possible if he maintains his level of performance for the next few years. Remember, the last year of arbitration is 100% of market value. It's not like earlier arb years where there's a discout involved.
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You're really making yourself look bad here. If you think it's a bad idea to trade Marmol, then say so. But stop inventing future hypocritical arguments and applying them to people in an effort to make yourself look correct. A lot of people (myself included) fear that moving Marmol would put Hendry in a position where he'd keep Cashner in a relief role. That's a legitimate fear. Backtobanks scenario is less likely, but I don't see it making him look all that far out there. Less likely? how many arb-eligible closers pull in $13m? how many FA closers pull in $13m? 2012 is his last year of arbitration eligibility, IIRC. So he's free-market price that year. Off the top of my head, I think Rivera, Cordero, Wood and K-Rod make over 10 mil a year. And Papelbon is just short, but still in his 2nd year of arb. There may be others, as well.
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You're really making yourself look bad here. If you think it's a bad idea to trade Marmol, then say so. But stop inventing future hypocritical arguments and applying them to people in an effort to make yourself look correct. A lot of people (myself included) fear that moving Marmol would put Hendry in a position where he'd keep Cashner in a relief role. That's a legitimate fear. Backtobanks scenario is less likely, but I don't see it making him look all that far out there.
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It'd have to be a 3 team deal. Phils get pitcher from crappy team. Mystery team gets Werth. Crappy team gets prospects from mystery team.
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Fukudome interest?
Rob replied to Bruno7481's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
As much as it pains me to say this, Jim Edmonds was better than both of them for the entire time he played. It pains me to read that, because it's patently false. Patently? I don't think so. It's really not even up for debate. Joe Morgan would probably agree with you. So you should probably reconsider your position. -
Let's get this over with now...
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 7-16-10
Rob replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
For a while at least, the thinking was that Lake would grow off of SS and end up at 3rd. Not still if that's still the case or not. -
I wouldn't mind taking a flier on Scott Elbert if we're talking with the Dodgers. Obviously not the main piece in a trade at this point, but still...
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Sorry about the word nobody. I'm sure one out of every 500 kids may have looked at it once. The number may have grown for kids of the 2000s, with all the information about stats readily available to everybody. But the vast, vast, vast majority of kids never looked at a baseball card and subtracted AVG from SLG to determine which players were power hitters. Again, because I feel the need to say this one more time... I never did that to determine anything. I simply noticed the correlation. The thing I took issue with was hawkeyecub calling me a liar. For something so plausible (even if somewhat rare), I don't take kindly to accusations. You suggested I didn't understand basic math at a young age. I don't take kindly to accusations. That is extremely offensive. You're just being a jerk to be a jerk. God, please deliver unto me imb! I think I deserve a better nemesis than this.
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Sorry about the word nobody. I'm sure one out of every 500 kids may have looked at it once. The number may have grown for kids of the 2000s, with all the information about stats readily available to everybody. But the vast, vast, vast majority of kids never looked at a baseball card and subtracted AVG from SLG to determine which players were power hitters. Again, because I feel the need to say this one more time... I never did that to determine anything. I simply noticed the correlation. The thing I took issue with was hawkeyecub calling me a liar. For something so plausible (even if somewhat rare), I don't take kindly to accusations.
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Um, OK. I understood basic math at a young age, but I didn't spend time doing this. Never said I spent time doing it. Never said I used it to identify power hitters. I said kids figure it out. And let's be honest, it's really, really hard not to notice the correlation.
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You're not, you're just the one being honest. This is extremely offensive. Just because you didn't understand basic math at a young age doesn't mean nobody did. Except nobody was looking at baseball cards and subtracting AVG from SLG to determine which players were powerful hitters. You mean to tell me you find it outside the realm of possibility that a young kid who likes math... a kid who is calculating his own BA and OBP and Slugging from little league games... didn't notice that guys with a bunch of home runs had a slugging percentage about .200-.250 points higher than their batting average and guys who didn't hit home runs had a much lower difference? That the very idea a kid might notice such a thing is so unrealistic that you can determine that nobody did that? Nah. You guys can't say that. You're just being jerks to be jerks.
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You're not, you're just the one being honest. This is extremely offensive. Just because you didn't understand basic math at a young age doesn't mean nobody did.
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You know some pretty smart 12 year olds who are talking about ISoP I can distinctly remember sitting in my attic with cards laid out and and subtracting AVG from SLG. The best of these would be my "Sluggers" when arranging my cards into batting orders. I had no idea it had a name, it just seemed like something worth doing. I'd also subtract AVG from OBP to "see who walked alot" amongst those with decent averages. EDIT: This may have been later. Thinking back, I imagine lots of kids did very similar things. I absolutely did the same things.
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The latest that's being used by a statistician near you? This is a joke, right? I think he was simply asking if that is a popular statistic. Pretty fair question, considering that your average baseball fan is just learning what OBP is. Yeah, but 12 year olds all over the country figure this stat out on their own... looking at baseball cards or the stadium displays. It's a basic, basic stat to show power.
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The latest that's being used by a statistician near you? This is a joke, right?
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Unless they flat out say they need him to start next year, I don't see why there would be pressure, albeit increased pressure as you stated. The 40-man roster does pose a problem, but the Cubs can always drop someone from that if need be. RISP is sometimes overlooked, and it shouldn't be. RISP splits have almost zero predicative power. Great for evaluating what has happened, but it means jack crap going forward.
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Rangers interested in Nady
Rob replied to Schwarber Fan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Yeah, that's what I was getting at. I've always liked his potential, but moreso as a catcher than a 1st baseman. Especially now that he's sporting a minor league OPS south of .800. Still, you dont think hed be worth Xavier Nady even if we do pick up whatever we still owe him? This is Xavier Nade were talking about. I'd rather gamble on an upside arm in the lower minors.
