cubsclapp

Yeah, last night the scoreboard might as well have said it was a 2-run difference with the wind. I liked being aggressive and not messing around there. Get the win, and if you find yourself in an uncomfortable position where Wade is going for 3 straight days, oh well. Worry about that when it happens. I went through this on Twitter when the Rondon blown save happened and went through last year's schedule. I know last year the Cubs were just destroying everyone much of the time, but I found only two instances where the Cubs had a save situation in the 9th on three consecutive days. It just doesn't happen very often. And, should it happen again, odds are Edwards/Koji/Rondon don't blow it the next time. Maybe they do, but most of the time they won't. Hopefully in two months the Cubs have a big lead in the standings and can be extra cautious with the pen usage.

I don't know what he is/will be, but I do know he's not really this 71 wRC+ hitter with a .648 OPS. He's just been missing so many hittable pitches in the zone, but his K rate is down quite a bit at the same time. I'm disappointed as I thought he may take another step this year, but it should still get quite a bit better than this. Still, he probably shouldn't be batting 5th in this lineup either.

Yeah, I went from thinking Happ was the one they'd choose to trade to now thinking it's more likely Eloy. And I realize it seems dumb to change the thought process like that in one month (and perhaps they felt this way all along themselves), but with how much the Cubs may actually need Happ now, I don't know how you trade him. Zobrist is going to be better than a sub-.700 OPS hitter of course, but it's possible his age is showing and he could use some days off (even if his back etc aren't issues). Baez is even more important then for the same reason. Plus he's the only other guy that can play shortstop and we just saw how that was needed for the last few days. Candelario is going to go in a trade, it's just a matter of when. I'm in favor of moving him sooner than later. His value is not going to be higher than it is now, and any additional MLB playing time may only expose him. So far he's looked pretty rough at the dish in the majors. I think Candelario makes sense in a deal to Toronto for example, for Estrada or Happ as a short-term solution (Happ is still owed $13 million next year as you alluded to to start the thread). But you could also use him as the second piece in a deal headlined for Eloy if you want to find that cost-controlled starter. With how much of a priority they've made about developing arms and how much crap they've taken for their failures to do so, it's hard to see them giving up Cease in a deal. But like if it's for a cost-controlled sub-30 arm, I think it's an understandable thing, right? For a big-time arm, this is the kind of scenario it may come down to, because like you said, it probably makes even less sense to trade Baez and Happ now than it did to open the season. I don't see finding at-bats for Happ being an issue honestly. He can play second, he can play left, he can play right. Heck, he even started 4 games in CF this year and played there a lot at Cincy IIRC. Injuries, slumps, and needed off days (like Zobrist especially) are going to keep happening. One way or another, I bet he'd start 3-4 times a week (as long as he keeps hitting, of course). So, yeah, when you add it all up, it would seem to be Eloy as the main guy to go, which really really sucks. But he's 2-3 years away from the current team that is trying to win championships, and he probably gets you the biggest return for your biggest need: a cost-controlled arm. And you are still loaded with position players offensively. He also is limited to corner outfield, and we know they have Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, etc there for the foreseeable future. It's also a position you can generally plug in with a solid bat if you have to. It would really suck to lose him, but he's probably the guy you can most "afford" to give up in their current position, especially when he's going to bring a big return that helps your current and future club at their biggest need.

Yeah, I honestly think that's possible... but like you said, is it even worth offering him that? It's going to be 17-18 million, and, if he's in the position to accept it, it means things didn't get any better this season. Would you want to pay this guy that much money to be in the rotation next year? I know the payoff is potentially big (and if he's even 3-WAR that's like a $25 million pitcher), but it could just be paying him that much money to be a back of the rotation starter too. That would be a tough, interesting call. In his position, I think it makes sense. That's more AAV than he'd get on the open market if this keeps up probably (who would pay this dude over $17 million a year on a multi-year deal?), and he could bet on himself and hit the market again the following offseason. Obviously, there's a bunch of factors. Starting with how he does for the rest of the year. If he pitches like a typical 4th starter? I'd say we'd offer it. If he accepts, we'd fill a spot with a one year, upside type of play.... I think there'd be a few teams willing to offer him multi-year deals, if he did have that type of season.(penalty for signing QO guys is less now too) But, it'd be far less than a guy like Jake would think he can get, with his confidence. Perfect scenario for us is acquiring a 1-3 type of starter at the deadline. Then, I'd be much more at ease, bringing Jake back under the preface we're EXPECTING 4-5 production from him. Yeah, I'd be cool with that.

Yeah, I honestly think that's possible... but like you said, is it even worth offering him that? It's going to be 17-18 million, and, if he's in the position to accept it, it means things didn't get any better this season. Would you want to pay this guy that much money to be in the rotation next year? I know the payoff is potentially big (and if he's even 3-WAR that's like a $25 million pitcher), but it could just be paying him that much money to be a back of the rotation starter too. That would be a tough, interesting call. In his position, I think it makes sense. That's more AAV than he'd get on the open market if this keeps up probably (who would pay this dude over $17 million a year on a multi-year deal?), and he could bet on himself and hit the market again the following offseason.

I was still in wait and see mode on Jake and the need for another legit starter (vs an Anderson replacement or something), but I now think the efforts to acquire such an arm may need to be turned up a notch (or at least if this keeps up for a few more starts). Joe said that Jake's "stuff looked the best it has" or something after the game. 4 ER over 6 innings isn't awful, and I admittedly gave up after a few innings (and did see some 93), but I'm gonna have to disagree with him. If anything, I thought Jake was unlucky in a few of these recent starts (like even the Coors one where he primarily got blooped to death) but today it was just a lot of 91-93 right down the dick. It doesn't seem to be improving, or at least enough. His K rate is somehow still a career-best, but he's paying for his mistakes. That's what happens when you catch the middle of the plate at 91-92 instead of 93-96. His command outside of 2015 was never great, but hitters either swung through or made very weak contact on his mistakes because they were plus velocity with wicked movement. Now when he misses, it's not much different than when a John Lackey misses. Now, he shouldn't have a 5.44 ERA. He shouldn't have a .355 BABIP allowed. The HR rates are probably a bit unsustainable still. The results should be more in his favor than they've been, and they probably will be with the same stuff over a full season. But I'm officially worried that this is what he is for 2017, barring some velocity jump/health/mechanical thing that it seems no one can figure out right now. And what that is, is basically a No. 4 starter. I think that, by now, we can also put aside the theories that he's holding something back/sacrificing velocity for command/etc. By now, with the results he's been getting, he'd be throwing 93-95 instead of 91-93 if it were in him. He has too much pride and money on the line this offseason, and may be seriously costing himself like a $100 million if this keeps up. I certainly hope he turns it around, but if we're entering June and it's the same stuff from Jake (plus considering Kyle's velo drop, Lackey's inconsistency, and Butler perhaps still an unknown despite the amazing stuff in his debut), the Cubs need to be attacking the trade market like they need another 1-3 starter (ideally of the cost-controlled variety, of course). You obviously don't throw aside the future, but they need to be aggressive, at least.

I think it's also to just see if he's a real option sooner than later. They know what Montgomery is and that he can be a fine option for sure. But they'd probably rather have similar production from the No. 5 while also allowing Montgomery to stay in his reliever role as well. So, see if Butler can be about as good as they'd expect from Montgomery, and if he's not, you either just finally go to Montgomery or make a trade.

Yeah, every organization has Matt Szczurs. Teams aren't going to trade "prospects" for 0.5-1 WAR No. 5 outfielders that aren't above average at any particular skillset. He's a fine 24th-25th player but these guys just don't have trade value either.

Not really. It's painful. I had checked out maybe 5 postgame shows this year (before turning it off every time because of how much I was cringing) and tonight gave the pregame show a shot (mainly for weather updates)... it's just bad. Just constantly stumbling and random words thrown together. Kap is almost always doing the "analysis" and puts things on a tee for DeJesus to answer that relate to his playing career. "Put yourself in La Stella's shoes with the start tonight," or "how would you handle this sleeping schedule?" or "do the players panic after a stretch like this?" And still, it's just highly uncomfortable. I do think it's a *tad* better but it's still brutal. And, hey, it's not his fault. TV is hard and most people can't comfortably speak in front of a camera. It's just mind-blowing that CSN thought this guy could do the job. I read an article where they said how Urlacher and Hollandsworth had struggles when they started but I don't remember them ever being anything like this. He seems like a really nice guy and surely knows baseball, but man, it's hard to watch him try to put it into words.

This is the reason I'm not actually worried. The Cubs should be able to piss while sitting down and still win the division by 10 games Edit: I'm still kind of worried though, but not to the point i want them to stand up to piss If the Cubs were in any other division right now I would be moderately concerned, but I think you could go a low as 86 wins and still win the division. They're still going to win 90+ but there should be plenty of room for error. And if the team is staying full-on mediocre like this, they'll do something. This team -- health provided -- is going to be much better by August 1, either from improvements within or by acquiring a Darvish or something. Theo isn't gonna abandon the long term to win another title but he harps on the "every chance is sacred" stuff more than anyone. If Hendricks is still throwing 84 and Arrieta keeps pitching this poorly/being this unlucky, they're not going to just add some Brett Anderson replacement. They'll be aggressive and try to add another No. 1-3 starter.

Also, I have a feeling the rest of this week stinks, especially after the situation the Cubs are in after tonight's game. But it's far away from being time to be too concerned. Lester looking like vintage Lester could end up being the biggest thing to come out of tonight's game in reality, as much as everything else sucked. I was still kinda concerned about him after he was sitting 90 last start. His velocity is back and we know his command isn't going to be a thing for too long.

That's silly. being worried about those guys is silly? obviously "this season is going to be depressing" is an over exaggerated take, but there is real reason to worry. if the rotation is just going to be okay, we need the offense to be great. Schwarber's looked pretty normal the last week or so. Heck his numbers were about the same as Rizzo's entering the 9th inning (Rizzo reached 3 times after that), and he just missed hitting a game-winning dong in extras. He may not be quite what everyone hoped this year, of course. And he may keep striking out 30% of the time. But generally speaking I wouldn't be too worried about him. He's going to keep walking and he's going to slug more. He seems to be pretty vulnerable to elevated fastballs, but those are hard to execute too. He'll start making pitchers pay for mistakes more. Russell? I'm disappointed he doesn't seem to be taking that next step and is missing a lot of hittable pitches, but it's not going to keep up anything like this. He currently has a .657 OPS. That's 2016 Heyward territory. It was .738 last year. And his K rate is down about 7% from his career avg. Again, I thought he may take things to a new level, especially with the improved K rate and going to right field more. But he won't keep it up near this poorly. And Contreras, well, he's just getting too out of control. It's annoying because in the spring he was destroying pitches the other way. He's always been pretty patient and his K totals have never been like this. He's falling into bad habits and getting himself out like Javy and Almora do. But that's not the hitter he's ever been. It's a young, inexperienced hitter though, so who knows. I could see him continue to suck or I could see him OPS'ing .850. I really think he's the biggest wild card in the lineup.

I'm not saying the Reds should trade him tonight for nothing, but it seems pointless to have a high quality pitcher, a reliever at that, in his late 20's on a really bad team that isn't even trying to be good. JMHT: The Mets should be all over him and Votto. He'd be awesome for the Cubs, I like him more than the more hyped Colome, but I'd rather shoot for an outright SP who maybe comes with a RP as the second piece. The Reds' asking price for Iglesias to the Cubs would be absurd. They're not going to be in the business of making the Cubs better through 2020. And the Cubs don't want to be in the business of giving their divisional competition any top prospects/hope, especially with the gap currently as big as it is. There are just a lot of reasons that would prevent a deal like that from ever getting done. If he weren't in the division, yeah, he'd be a really interesting target for sure.

Was May 3rd, apparently.

It's absolutely fine to look at all that. But there shouldn't be any sort of doubt about this offense hitting, and hitting a lot. These funks happen (remember that 2-3 week stretch before the ASB?), especially to start a season and in cold weather. But Anthony Rizzo has three straight seasons of an .899-.928 OPS and 31-32 homers. He may be the most consistent hitter alive. Kris Bryant just won the MVP, and even if you have doubts about repeating *that*, he still hit 26 homers (and his first didn't come until May) and had an .858 OPS hitter as a rookie. Just about all of the main hitters are performing below projections and recent performance. Maybe it stays that way for a player or two, but it's not like last year with Heyward where the mechanics were a full-on disaster. These guys all look like themselves at the plate, and it would be surprising if the results didn't soon start to show that.

Right. These position players have combined for 3 home runs in 10 games (ZiPS projections in parentheses): Anthony Rizzo (31) Kris Bryant (30) Addison Russell (18) Javier Baez (17) Ben Zobrist (14) Willson Contreras (13) Jason Heyward (11) Miguel Montero (9) Albert Almora (7) Matt Szczur (5) Tommy La Stella (3) Jon Jay (3) These position players are currently worth over 0.2 fWAR: Albert Almora (0.3, and 59 MLB position players are at least 0.4 fWAR). We know this won't keep up too long. Vs good pitching, and with less than ideal hitting conditions this month (especially at Wrigley), it may keep up for a bit though. But, this offense should be at least damn good and probably juggernaut-ish when all is said and done.

did you pre-order on amazon? i'm not sure if they're still running it but i did it a couple weeks ago and it was like $45 or something haven't gotten the game in 2-3 years but i figured i had to this year. If you're an Amazon Prime member, it will be $47.99 (instead of the regular price of $59.99) for up to 2 weeks after it releases. That's the case (20% off) for any new games. I had last year's and it was terrific. For people that haven't played in a few years, you'll be blown away by how it looks and plays on PS4. And it looks even better this year:

I googled about it and found Kris, his dad, and Mallee talking about it. And it was actually well over 50% of his AA and AAA homers to the opposite field: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-kris-bryant-mvp-improve-spt-0122-20170121-story.html

I love that he is able to adapt and improve himself. Last year it was with flattening out his swing. Now he is doing this in case teams start pitching him away more. These aren't superficial changes. He's actually looking for ways that he can improve himself, without taking away from things that he already does well. It is crazy to think that he could still get better. Honestly, and this is the crazy part (since we're talking about the NL MVP) but I feel like there are many ways Kris Bryant can still improve. There are SO many times he looks overmatched during an AB last year. Everyone knows about his struggles against good changeups and how he can't adapt to it right now. That will come with time and more exposure. He stills struggles against good sliders on that outer third of the plate (low and away) that break sharply, especially once he has two strikes. That is something almost everyone struggles with. Learning how to foul off good pitches is a lost art form, but I wish he would try doing that like Zobrist. He doesn't go opposite field very often, and when he does it's a pretty big surprise. Using the whole field and just cutting down on the strikeouts will yield huge improvements. There are only a few hitters on the team who have as much room to improve as hitters. The only one with more room or potential and a higher upside is Baez. If Baez ever figures it out, man, I can't even imagine how deadly a lineup we could run out there... And in the minors he went to the opposite field *a lot*. It seemed like at least half of his homers went that way. People weren't sure if he'd be able to turn on good fastballs and he's obviously shown to get much, much better there. If he keeps that up, and is driving the ball the other way again, you'd better have really good changeups and sliders (and he will frequently spit on them anyway).

I'd rank Almora first and I'd assume the organization does as well (at least unless they have bigger plans in CF like Fowler or Pollock or something). His glove already carries huge value where he can be a 2-WAR player just by being like a .690 OPS guy. And we know there is more power potential in the bat and a very good hit tool, even if he's allergic to walking. We all love Jorge and it's impossible to not drool over the potential. If he became an elite hitter overnight it would stun no one, as we see the flashes frequently, and he's already a good hitter as is. But, he's a below average (to put it nicely) defensive corner outfielder that is unlikely to get too much better out there, especially with his leg injury past. And many organizations are likely worried he's truly injury prone (I don't like to label guys that so early myself, but he sure does seem to have the most muscular fragile body ever). So, Jorge is going to have to hit a lot to be a 2-WAR player. Mark Trumbo for example as a DH/bad corner OF hit 47 dongs, had an .850 OPS, and had a 2.2 fWAR. Mike Napoli as a DH/bad 1B had 34 homers, an .800 OPS, and a 1.0 fWAR. Now, Soler is a step up from these guys defensively, but just shows how much he's going to likely have to hit to have much value. Either way, likely going to have to package these guys together to really get something. And it may take all five guys listed to get Archer.

The value in his chances to help them win the 2017 World Series, along with the draft pick they'll get (so they would still come out of this with a good prospect), likely outweighs what they'd get back in a trade for one year of him. Also, I'd think any team would be skeptical about the chances Jake returns to pre-2nd half form if Theo is willing to give the guy up for what won't be a system-changing haul. And without Bosio, which is very notable given how massively important and unique Jake's mechanics are. And the Cubs would then have two rotation slots open -- we don't know if Montgomery has one of them yet and the Cubs may (ideally) prefer him as a dominant reliever -- with a crappy trade market to work with. I'm sure Theo would only do it if he had something else lined up, of course. But it just seems like way too many obstacles for this to realistically happen. Should they listen to all offers and make Jake "available"? Absolutely. But much more on the listening side than the actively shopping side.

For this team, I'm not so sure about that. What would you have put the Cubs odds of winning the World Series at going into the season, and how does that compare to the odds of winning 3 straight games against another championship-caliber team? FanGraphs currently has their odds at 17.4%. Their odds were 16.4% on October 5th, and were in the 15-20% range for most of the year. So, the odds the Cubs win three straight games right now are basically viewed the same as the Cubs' title chances were when entering the playoffs. It's weird to think that while we feel completely miserable, the Cubs' chances for the big prize are really no different than when they felt unstoppable a month ago. Of course, it also highlights how hard it is to run the playoff gauntlet and get to this point no matter how good your team is, and how you want to really take advantage of that special opportunity when you get it. Let's hope they find a way to do so.

The Dodgers are still better than at least a few of these teams even if Kershaw doesn't go until Game 4. And especially since you weaken every team when you take away the ace. They're ahead of all of these teams -- except for the Giants -- in position player fWAR. Seager is arguably the best player in the league right now (if not Bryant). Turner has a higher fWAR than everyone on these teams but Seager and Crawford. The Pirates aren't near the same team without Cole until Game 4. The Marlins are probably the worst team here without Fernandez until Game 4 (and keep in mind Dee Gordon can't play). The Cardinals have a rotation full of hittable pitchers, are awful defensively, and their lineup is going to be without Diaz and Holliday for at least a while now. The Mets' lineup right now is Braves bad and they would use Syndergaard (who has a 4.20 ERA his last 9 starts) or deGrom in the WC game, and they no longer have Harvey. But, yes, they naturally scare you because those top 3 arms can get hot and make it really tough. Then the Giants would have to use Bumgarner and Cueto has allowed 4+ ER in 5 of his last 8 starts. Yes, he's better than that, and yes, he threw a CG in the World Series last year, but he's probably not as good as he looked early on in the year either. And if you can survive those two, the rest of their rotation is average to bad. Still, this is a very dangerous team and that's a really annoying ballpark to have to go win in. Anyway, they're all very flawed in this scenario, but I'd probably still want to avoid the Dodgers over at least three of these teams myself (Pirates, Marlins, Cardinals), and you're really putting a lot of pressure on yourself to take care of business vs them early in the series before you have to see Kershaw (and his postseason past doesn't matter to me).

Buster Olney says that Billy was asking for Anderson Espinoza (Pomeranz trade) for Rich Hill. Good lord.

4-5 such arms would be great (and I think they add at least 1 more such arm), but do you really need that many good pen arms to win in October? If your starting pitchers aren't going at least 6 or 7 on average, you're in big trouble in October anyway. You're riding your good arms. You figure that Lester or Arrieta is getting you into the 8th+ for at least a couple of these games. You're using Strop and Rondon in every game necessary as well. Not to mention you have a day off in a five-game series, then another couple days off before the next series, and what, two off days in a seven-game series? So, I mean, 4+ trustworthy arms are great. But in reality you probably only "need" 2 or 3 Rondon/Strop level arms, and a couple more at least decent arms. Between whatever they'll acquire at the deadline, and the underachieving guys currently in the pen, the Cubs should be able to have enough in this department.