cubsclapp

To me... if they're trading Addison Russell, they'd better be getting something like Noah Syndergaard back. Addison was just a 4-win player as a 22-year-old. Even with his struggles this year, he's still been worth 1.1 bWAR because he leads all shortstops in DRS by a lot. He was a 3-win player as a rookie with a .696 OPS. He's not going to keep hitting *this* poorly, and we know he has the ability to be quite a bit better offensively. So, I just wouldn't really want to get rid of a 3+ WAR player that is still just 23 and with upside, unless I'm getting a significant pitcher back. Bats > arms, especially ones that are awesome shortstops. I don't know if the team is getting any better in an Archer for Russell swap, for example, and I especially wouldn't bet on that being the case over the next 5 years. Use Eloy and company way before that. You're not getting a guy like Thor for Addison Russell and you're not getting Archer with Eloy as the headliner. Picking one WAR and running with it like that and then switching back to another when convenient is disingenuous. Two other sites have Russell at 0.3 WAR so far this season. Since, if they traded Russell, Baez would assume the starting duties this is how projections see it working out for this season only: fWAR: Baez currently at 0.4 WAR with a projection of 1.4 WAR in limited PAs. Russell currently at 0.3 WAR with a projection of 2.0 WAR moving forward without factoring in his kind of demotion. bWAR: This is super crude math coming at you because it's just extrapolation, which favors Baez since he's being sat against tough righties, but Baez is at 1.1 fWAR in 160 PAs, and Russell is at 1.6 in 199 PAs. Extrapolate that out to 600 PAs and you're looking at 4.1 and 4.8 respectively. WARP: Baez has been worth 0.5 WARP and projected for 0.8 WARP RoS (287 PAs). Russell has been worth 0.3 WARP and 1.3 WARP (392 PAs) projected moving forward. So just swapping out Russell and Baez isn't a huge loss in the immediate future and adding Archer over Eddie Butler is kind of a huge upgrade and solves rotation questions for a couple years, until Archer gets hurt and ruins everything. Of course, that leaves no backup SS option at the moment and hurts the depth, but that might be a worthwhile swap in risk. I don't know if I'd do a Russell+ for Archer swap, but it's not some crazy overpay either. I'm not actually saying they could really get someone like Thor (he's not going anywhere). My point was simply that's the only kind of arm I'm trading Addison Russell for (and I understand Archer is 2nd in fWAR right now himself). He's too valuable and a sure thing to at least be a "good" player with his glove, and he was a 4-WAR player as recently as last year. He plays the most important position on the diamond, is just 23 with the ability to get much better, and pitchers break. I also don't think Javy playing shortstop everyday would go as swimmingly as we like to think. He's an awesome second baseman and third baseman, but over a full year at shortstop he's probably pretty average. You'll also see his offensive value dip with everyday playing time vs tough right-handed pitching. I loooove Javy, but we're also seeing his plate discipline get uglier by the day. He has one (!) unintentional walk in 160 plate appearances. He had a 1.3 BB% vs righties last year. I agree that, for this year, it could absolutely make the Cubs better because of the significant value Archer adds over Butler, and more importantly, being able to match up with the Nats' and Dodgers' arms in the playoffs. Right now, we wouldn't feel great about Strasburg vs Hendricks in the first round, or Arrieta vs one of their No. 3's unless he picks things up a bit. Archer would greatly change things. I also agree that it's not even necessarily an overpay (and the exact kind of return the Rays should be demanding), but it's just not in the best interest of these Cubs. If it were about just winning for this year, sure, look into it.

Yeah, the defense has really looked much better for the last couple weeks. Error totals are overrated, but just three errors over the last 13 games is pretty damn good. The defense had been pretty sloppy early on. And they've mixed in several incredible plays lately to top it off. The Cubs entered tonight's game 7th in DRS, and they should be climbing up in UZR now as well. It's not going to be last year's defense, but there's no reason this shouldn't be viewed as one of the top units again soon.

To me... if they're trading Addison Russell, they'd better be getting something like Noah Syndergaard back. Addison was just a 4-win player as a 22-year-old. Even with his struggles this year, he's still been worth 1.1 bWAR because he leads all shortstops in DRS by a lot. He was a 3-win player as a rookie with a .696 OPS. He's not going to keep hitting *this* poorly, and we know he has the ability to be quite a bit better offensively. So, I just wouldn't really want to get rid of a 3+ WAR player that is still just 23 and with upside, unless I'm getting a significant pitcher back. Bats > arms, especially ones that are awesome shortstops. I don't know if the team is getting any better in an Archer for Russell swap, for example, and I especially wouldn't bet on that being the case over the next 5 years. Use Eloy and company way before that.

The AL could really mess with the trade market. Right now, the worst team (Oakland) is only 5.5 out of a Wild Card. Obviously things are going to change over the next several weeks, but if things stay pretty close, it will be interesting to see which organizations are willing to admit what they are and sell. But like the Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners, and Rangers all seem like .500-ish teams on paper that could hang in there. It's hard to give up on such seasons (the players remember that) and sometimes it's not the general manger's call.

Put yourself in the Marlins' disgusting shoes. What would it take for you to give up Yelich (on a team-friendly deal through 2022)? I wouldn't even feel good about it for two Eloys.

I just don't buy their starting pitching over a full season and their offense should have some regression. I mean they just struck out 26 times tonight for example. But yeah, as long as they're there, they're worth paying attention to of course.

We possibly could if Theo's goons 'convince' Heyward to opt out after next season. They could also get someone to pay a fair chunk of Heyward's contract if they had to. His NTC goes to just 12 teams that offseason. I'm sure they would do some maneuvering and doubt Heyward's contract will be why they don't sign Harper. Ultimately, I bet this one ends up being more like NBA free agency and Harper (and Machado) ends up where he truly wants to be among the big market teams. These organizations will do some serious maneuvering to get where they need to be financially.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kyle-schwarber-is-not-bad-at-baseball/

It's possible, especially if they get swept this weekend. But the Cardinals are very flawed and playing as crappy of late themselves. The Cubs are playing as badly as they possibly can with their roster. The Cardinals aren't playing much differently than their actual true talent level (like an 84-win team). Hell, they're significantly overachieving with their starting rotation (which is 30 points better than any in baseball at 3.22). Again, you get swept this weekend, and that's 4 games you have to make up on them. The gap in these teams' talent levels would probably be made up with that, where the Cubs would really need to kick it into gear the rest of the way to win the division. *Right now*, the Cubs should still be clear favorites because they have the much better roster, and usually that shows up over 162 games. But we're at least now at the point where's it not like "oh they'll be fine." They may very well not be, and need to start playing much better. But it's especially unlikely the Cubs keep sucking across the board for too much longer (hopefully before it's too late). This team is going to hit, and should play better defense. The starting rotation is a real problem and could stay that way, but we know they're going to add there (should the team not keep sinking).

Zagunis' splits this year are insanely close: vs lefties: .250/.404/.472 vs righties: .254/.406/.474 Last year he was actually far, far better vs righties at Iowa: vs lefties: .196/.226/.304 vs righties: .309/.416/.569

Provided this keeps up a bit longer, he's probably around the Cubs' top-10 now right?

Also, Almora should be even more of a platoon player than Schwarber, at least until we have evidence that the defense is truly very good. The metrics continue to not be all that impressed. Entering today in his career... Almora vs RHP: .242/.281/.326 Almora vs LHP: .303/.354/.566

Facing AAA pitching doesn't figure to help him. His main issues so far seem to be elevated high velocity fastballs and horsefeathers luck.

FanGraphs currently gives the Brewers a 1.3% shot at the division.

If we're blaming the coaches for the young hitters slumping, do they not get credit for fixing Rizzo back in the day and Heyward this year? Legit argument for Heyward, but I'm not sure about Rizzo. Mallee was hired after 2014, Rizzo's breakout year. I understand he has his work cut out for him and then some. Not many coaches are given 5 young players almost at once. And most of the guys were rushed at warp speed through the system. But there has to be some visible evidence of growth at the MLB level to earn some slack. It's simply not there. There's also Baez completely changing the kind of hitter he his. Obviously not in the plate discipline department, but the hitters usually are what they are that department once they reach the majors. But the Cubs got Javy to shorten up and ditch the leg kick on occasion, for example. He's gone from a guy that K'd 41.5% of the time in 2014 to a guy that has K'd 24.0% and 23.4% these last two years. It's of course hard to tell how much of an impact a hitting coach's guidance truly factored into that. And it's even harder to know an impact they're having on hitters struggling. The guys that are slumping... I'm just not sure what a hitting coach could've really done to prevent that. TT explained it well. Schwarber is Schwarber (like I'm sure they could get him to shorten up at times or something but this is his game), Contreras has just gotten too out of control at times, Russell's shoulder is probably an issue, etc. I'm just not sure there is really anything to it aside from natural slumping or hitters getting into habits that you can't control. I'm sure they preach patience, selective aggressiveness, etc etc, but you can't control what the hitter does with that information once they're at the plate. It's not like last year where Heyward's mechanics were clearly a disaster (and *that* was partly their fault, actually, but they seem to have fixed it). So, I'd probably give it some more time.

It's certainly possible Mallee and company have something to do with it, but it's more likely just a couple months of struggles that happen.

Addison is worth 1.2 bWAR, fwiw. Thanks to an insane 11 DRS, behind only Arenado (12) in MLB and that's with missing like a week. They have Javy at 0.8 WAR as well.

Yeah that all makes sense. I don't even necessarily have a preference myself, just saying why I could see the front office preferring Happ. Or perhaps they think it's close enough where they choose to trade Eloy because of the higher return he gets them. Fwiw, two of those five Eloy walks were intentional, but yeah I get that it's because pitchers fear him which may continue.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the front office prefers Happ to Eloy now, and I would've thought that was crazy a few months ago. But Happ looks like he can be an .800+ OPS hitter (I'm not saying this year, but it sure seems possible even with all of the swing and miss), and should be able to play everywhere but shortstop and catcher competently. He can already find his way into this lineup just about everyday with his ability to play all over the diamond, and he's a switch-hitter that seems to play fine vs either arm side. Happ's ceiling may not be huge, but the player I just described is a very valuable player. Even if he's just a .750 OPS hitter, his versatility and ability to handle middle-of-the-diamond positions makes him fairly valuable still (not to mention Almora may continue to be a .600 OPS hitter vs righties and they need Happ or Heyward to play more in CF). It may be boring, but it's valuable. Eloy is a monster, and figures to crank plenty of glorious dongs. He also seems to be much more than just a power hitter... he really looks like a good *hitter*, and his batting average has supported that. Hitters of this skill level and with this upside don't come along frequently. I would hate to lose Eloy for that reason. But Eloy is a corner outfielder. He's going to be limited to two positions, maybe three if he could handle first base. He's also not likely to be more than average at these positions. I know he has a great arm and he made that insane play in the Futures Game. But he's already a friggin' horse and is only just 20 years old. His range is likely to be pretty average in his prime, at a corner outfield spot. I'm sure he will be better defensively than Schwarber and Soler, but still probably not "good" out there. And Eloy doesn't walk. His walk percentage was 5.4 last year, with 3 of the 28 walks being intentional. The years before it was 6.0 and 6.1. He seems like he will probably be a 4-7% walk guy in the majors. Could he improve here? Sure, but usually the player's plate discipline is what it is at this point. So, if Eloy is an average corner outfielder defensively, and he isn't walking, you're talking about him having to hit A LOT to be more than a 2-WAR player. A .275+ AVG and 30+ dongs annually. He sure seems capable of that, but just saying that the path to being all that valuable is difficult. It's the same conversation we have about Schwarber, but we already know Schwarber's MLB power is there, and he walks a ton. And Happ looks to be a real contributor for a team trying to win championships right now. He can keep finding his way into this lineup and provide the roster with much more flexibility. This will also be the case next year, and the year after that. Eloy is multiple years away, and plays a position occupied by Jason Heyward (barring an opt-out). Or a position occupied by Kyle Schwarber. Or a position occupied by Anthony Rizzo. Maybe someone suffers a serious injury. Maybe Heyward goes back to hitting like Cesar Izturis. Maybe Schwarber keeps being the unluckiest hitter alive/is brutal in left field. These things happen as we've seen the last two years. But add it all up, and I think there's a very good chance this organization prefers to keep Happ. And Eloy also likely gets you a bigger return anyway.

Welp

This is arguably less like an endorsement of Contreras and more of a "wow, look at how much this team is underperforming" kinda thing. Sure, but it's still 10th for catchers and we know he hasn't hit as much as he's going to. The overall point was he's been fine and should only get better. There's no doubt the errors and wild pitches are an issue, and very annoying. Hopefully those lessen with experience. If this is how it stayed, it's still a solid catcher with his arm talent and athleticism usually going a long way to make up for the gaffes and average framing.

Isn't Willson supposed to be a good framer? He hasn't been doing Jake many favors, stabbing at a lot of balls. I also kinda feel his exaggerated movements on blocking balls in the dirt throws Jake off his rhythm by making it seem like those pitches are mini crises that are being averted. His framing was a bit above average last year, slightly worse this year thus far. That I can understand will come around(and Jake is a difficult pitcher to frame), but the pitch blocking and stuff like hanging on to tipped pitches are hurting him a lot. That's fine when he's a young catcher hitting like Posey, but his double just bumped him over a .700 OPS to start this season so you really want to see progress on either end. He's currently second among Cubs position players in fWAR (0.8) playing to what is probably his floor. The OPS is up to .719 and the K rate is declining. He went 3 for 3 today with 2 sac flies. Every AB was great, except for the slow roller he got an infield single on partly because of his speed. His baserunning was fantastic and is incredibly rare at catcher (it led to a run today). The framing has been average at best as you said, and he's had a few brutal errors (and 8 total). He's likely to always have some maddening plays, but like Javy, the good is going to far outweigh the bad there (he came into today ranked as FanGraphs' 9th-most valuable defender). His issues are things he should continue to improve on. Heck, he didn't start catching until his fourth year in the Cubs' system. It's amazing he's already where he's at. Anyway, he's going to be a star and is already very good. He's far down my list of concerns.

That's his deepest start too. But all eight starts he's gone at least 5 IP, and he's only allowed 3 ER once. Now has a 2.42 ERA. Pretty solid season in Double-A for a guy that just turned 22 last week.

I don't see the Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals doing much meaningful business with each other in the near future.

DRS grades him out as 'construction barrel' interesting...wonder why. a lot of guys in the middle part of the venn diagram (sucking by both systems). fowler, WOOF. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,a lol Heyward is tied for the OF lead in DRS at +8 and he hasn't even played in two weeks. And Addison Russell leads the majors at +9, despite missing some games recently and having a sore shoulder. I thought his throws the last few days had better zip on them so maybe that really was an issue earlier in the year. But as for Schwarber, he's looked okay overall. He's not going to get to some plays other outfielders would, we know that. But he really hasn't looked lost out there or anything. As long as he's hitting (and he has been for a couple weeks now despite what the shitty results say), we'll live with it. I'm much more interested in the metrics thinking Almora has been bad defensively this year. He needs to be really good out there to have much value, as the bat has predictably been exposed of late as the league figures out he will chase sliders 5 feet outside and weakly roll over them. And he can also help mask Schwarber's issues in theory if he's covering a lot of ground in the outfield.