cubsclapp

But why do that if you don’t have to? They’d still like some wiggle room for in-season moves as well. I’m sure the Cubs will up their offer a little bit (perhaps quite a bit) if they feel the need to here. Right now it sure appears they’re in a position of power. I agree, I’m just being impatient and frustrated. Theo knows he likely is in a hammer spot and it’s smart not to budge for now. However, 5/125 or whatever around there (5/115, 6/130, etc) just doesn’t seem prohibitive to me and should be a relative no brainer to get to, to just wrap this up. A $25 aav deal would still leave us with ~$10 mil in space to add a contract mid-season, I think. Without looking it all up, I thought they were closer to like $31 million left for luxury tax purposes and $25 AAV is probably as high as they’d want to go. Even with Darvish, odds are they need something at the deadline and you’d like more than a handful of million to work with.

why would you think, with the amount of money the cubs have to spend and the one obvious area for improvement, that they would merely be faking interest in the best available solution to fill that spot? Not faking. Just not nearly interested enough to give Yu market value. I think they got more involved when it looked like they could get him a lot cheaper than what the market suggested, but it's going to be on their terms. If they really wanted him that bad, they would have him by now and wouldn't competing against the Twins and Brewers for him. I've thought all along we are still getting Cobb when somebody else finally gives Yu a contract more in line with expectations. ETA: Plus, they are signing Bryce Harper next year and I still think they are going to be somewhat responsible with the other contracts they give out during this time. How do we know they’re not that interested? It’s that they don’t have to offer market value right now. The Brewers and Twins probably have to offer him a decent amount more than the Cubs or Dodgers would. And if all things are nearly equal contract wise and he’d rather go to Milwaukee or Minnesota, well, then he’s just a weirdo. But I’d be surprised if the Cubs weren’t willing to get around the $25 million AAV range if that’s what it came down to in the end.

But why do that if you don’t have to? They’d still like some wiggle room for in-season moves as well. I’m sure the Cubs will up their offer a little bit (perhaps quite a bit) if they feel the need to here. Right now it sure appears they’re in a position of power.

It's kind of funny that we're in an otherwise dead-ass offseason and it's, "I'm skeptical the Milwaukee Brewers won't add a 3rd star."

Phillies and Mariners? The Phillies wouldn't shock me but they'd probably prefer to wait until next offseason. Still, this could be their Lester kind of move and it wouldn't be crazy. The Mariners we haven't heard much about which is a little surprising. Same with the Angels. They got Ohtani, but there's very little certainty anywhere in that rotation and for a team that has playoff hopes. And then there's the Dodgers potentially clearing a lot of money, but that likely takes selling a good prospect or two because Matt Kemp is worthless. On the surface, Andrew Friedman making all these moves -- and giving up good young talent -- just to sign a 31-year-old pitcher for $100 million+ seems unlikely.

I don’t think Arrieta spent the first half of *a contract year* sitting 91 mph because he wasn’t motivated. Or that he couldn’t command a pitch to save his life in the second half of 2016 because he wasn’t focused. His mechanics are incredibly complicated and the slightest issue in repeating them can (literally) throw everything off. Plus — unless it was simply his mechanics — I think he wasn’t 100% in the first half last year judging by the velocity and sharpness jump later in the year.

Hes going to get paid by someone and we've all seen what happens when Jake finally gets vindication (he goes from ridiculous to pretty good) Huh?

Cut him or try and get someone to take him and pay a few million each year of the deal It seems like they do this all the time in the NBA but it's harder to pull off in baseball since the rosters are so much bigger. Matt Kemp isn’t even worth having for free. If you’re an AL team, sure, he can be a passable DH for some small market bunghole, but I’d still rather have better than a 100-110 wRC+ guy as my DH. And if he’s forced to play the field at all, he’s a negative value player. He’s old and bad and somehow really fat now.

If the Cubs don't make a move heading into the regular season, their moves are Chatwood and Morrow and lost Arrieta? The Brewers were nearly better than them last year. The Cubs played the first half of 2017 with Jake Arrieta having a 4.35 ERA, Kyle Hendricks throwing 84 mph, and Jose Quintana not being on the team. Eddie Butler had the best ERA (3.88) of anybody with at least 11 starts. They still won the division by 6 games. I forgot to say here that they also started Brett Anderson six times (8.18 ERA), and John Lackey had a 5.67 FIP in 17 first half starts.

why would you think that If the Cubs don't make a move heading into the regular season, their moves are Chatwood and Morrow and lost Arrieta? The Brewers were nearly better than them last year. The Cubs played the first half of 2017 with Jake Arrieta having a 4.35 ERA, Kyle Hendricks throwing 84 mph, and Jose Quintana not being on the team. Eddie Butler had the best ERA (3.88) of anybody with at least 11 starts. They still won the division by 6 games.

You saying this makes me REALLY care about the Cubs signing Darvish. Then you will love the writer's suggestion that we sign him to 8 years to lower the AAV. He's the managing editor of Viva El Birdos.

I like Zach Davies a lot as a No. 4-5 type (on a good team)... but I may take Chatwood over him too because of the upside and success away from Coors. I still don't really know what to think of Chase Anderson, but his changeup is pretty nasty and his run prevention has been really good for the last year and a half (2.75 ERA since July 25, 2016). Wouldn't be surprised if he went back to being super blah (and he's already 30), but that's a decent sample of success at the same time, so we'll see. Jimmy Nelson sounds ahead of schedule, but it remains to be seen how good he truly is as well. Travis Shaw and Domingo Santana are good and maybe very good players, but yeah, given the Cubs' roster construction, they wouldn't be as important. There is a lot of decent, but they're lacking that top-tier talent. Obviously adding a Yelich and maybe Darvish/Arrieta would go a long way to helping there, but it still may not be better than a low 80s win team on paper.

Yeah, I was arguing with people on Twitter about all this earlier. The Brewers have a good farm system and some intriguing young talent, but how many truly impact talents do there appear to be? Lewis Brinson *could* be really good, but he sure appears to have a long way to go and is older than Ian Happ. Orlando Arcia *could* be really good, but so far he's been a 1-WAR player over his 2 years and is just 7 months younger than Addison Russell. Everyone wants to do these rebuilds like the Cubs and Astros, and for good reason, but the Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa type talents are rare. And you need a player or two like that to really make the jump, especially if you're not a big market team that can go out and sign players with ease (and it's not just payroll related; players have to want to go to Milwaukee or Minnesota too). I like their front office and their vision, but they will need a lot to go right. I think using a few of their prospects/young guys (like Brinson) to go get a cheap, still-young star in Christian Yelich would be a perfect move for them.

Hmm, but why would they have any interest at all in Ellsbury? He’ll be a 35-year-old CF in September, which doesn’t make sense for an add on a rebuilding team (at least that’s how they should be viewing themselves), and he’s been super blah the last 3 years anyway. I’d view him as a 1-1.5 WAR CF and one with no future on my team...but he’s signed through 2020 (team option and $5 million buyout in 2021). If I were the Brewers, he’d better be super cheap, and ideally bringing a prospect back on top of that. Say he were a free agent... anything over like 2 years, $16 million would seem like an overpay.

Why wouldn't you do it? What player out of that bunch is the one that makes you say "nope, that's too much" ? It's two parts the guys we're losing and one part liking but not loving Yelich. Losing both of Almora/Happ and two of our top prospects basically cleans us out of valuable disposable assets. So this summer or next winter when some hole pops up we're that much less likely to have the pieces to fill it via trade. That's not the end of the world, but I guess I don't think Yelich is enough of an upgrade to want to put the team in that situation. Particularly with how thin our pitching staff is, I think we need to have the resources on hand to be able to go and grab a guy when something inevitably goes wrong. Basically I'd rather win 93 games and save our bullets than push our chips in to win 95 games. Though like I said I don't think it's an unreasonable price, he's a very good player on a fantastic contract. Yelilch has been a 4.5-WAR player three times already and just turned 26 last month. He's on an insanely cheap contract for five more years. He's had a .362-.376 OBP in all five seasons and has the potential to hit for more power (and if he doesn't, that's fine). And he plays center field, which is the one position that doesn't appear great on paper for the Cubs going forward. I don't think it's really "pushing out chips to win 95 games." He's adding multiple wins cheaply for several years and taking up only one roster spot to do so (you could sign another player to replace one of Happ or Almora and add more wins that way too). Happ and Almora are fine players with the potential to be very good players, and maybe one of the prospects becomes something. But this is a legitimate, proven star, at the one position the Cubs could use an upgrade. They have so much depth that they can gladly afford to trade away multiple solid young players for one clearly awesome, still-young player. I just wouldn't worry about giving up the assets the Cubs could use in a trade if they're using the assets to get Yelich. They don't appear to have other big needs going forward aside from one SP, and they could just sign that guy. And as Theo always says, more prospects will present themselves. To me the Happ/Almora/2 prospects thing is much more about if the Marlins would be willing to do it, and I doubt they would.

Yeah I know he brought Cain up the other day but is another thing to say the Cubs actually have an offer on the table. With that said there is a poster on another board who heard the show as well and that póster said Levine mentioned the Cubs have 8 offers out between FA and trade proposals. Trade offers are for Archer / Colé / Yelich and Colome. I haven't heard 8 offers, but he did say they have 6 offers on the table a couple days ago on the radio. I don't know if these are all of the guys with the "offers", but the names he keeps saying are Arrieta, Darvish, Cain, Yelich, Cobb, and Reed. I believe he's mentioned Cole a couple times too.

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2018/01/02/cubs-2018-needs-additions-arrieta-darvish-cobb-yelich/ He brought up Cain a few days ago. Yeah I know he brought Cain up the other day but is another thing to say the Cubs actually have an offer on the table. With that said there is a poster on another board who heard the show as well and that póster said Levine mentioned the Cubs have 8 offers out between FA and trade proposals. Trade offers are for Archer / Colé / Yelich and Colome. I haven't heard 8 offers, but he did say they have 6 offers on the table a couple days ago on the radio. The names he keeps saying are Arrieta, Darvish, Cain, Yelich, Cobb, and Reed. I believe he's mentioned Cole a couple times too.

Someone tweeted at him about the idea of "Bruce" Harper getting a $400 million deal, so he was just mocking that. https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/943592855477608448

But one allows you to go after Bryce Harper for sure, and the other may not. If the Cubs feel they can do both, by all means.

I'm confused by all the hate for Kintzler. Is everyone that obsessed with the K rate? He's been a groundball machine his entire career, rarely walks guys, and doesn't allow many dongs. He's a FIP beater and his consistent low 3s ERA isn't fluky. We're talking about a 306 2/3-inning sample of him putting together a 3.26 ERA out of the bullpen. And his game would work better than literally everywhere else with the Cubs' elite groundball defense, and the bullpen is already full of power arms that miss bats. More than anything they could use a guy that doesn't issue walks, while also having a great track record of run prevention. There are a few guys I'd still rather have, but Kintzler would be a really solid addition to the bullpen. I think there's room to not think of K's as the end-all-be-all, and still be pretty concerned about Kintzler not striking anyone out. Out of 109 qualified relievers the last 2 years, he's 108th in K%. He'll need a multi-year deal and he's 33 now. That profile can go quickly, and if they continue to play with the DefinitelyNotJuicedBall, it adds even more risk. His velocity last year was as good as it's ever been across the board and he allowed just 5 homers in 71 1/3 innings with the juiced ball. He's 33 and he could absolutely see the results fade quickly, but it's a risk I'd be fine taking on say a 2-year deal, $12-16 million deal (and ideally just a 1-year deal, of course).

I'm confused by all the hate for Kintzler. Is everyone that obsessed with the K rate? He's been a groundball machine his entire career, rarely walks guys, and doesn't allow many dongs. He's a FIP beater and his consistent low 3s ERA isn't fluky. We're talking about a 306 2/3-inning sample of him putting together a 3.26 ERA out of the bullpen. And his game would work better than literally everywhere else with the Cubs' elite groundball defense, and the bullpen is already full of power arms that miss bats. More than anything they could use a guy that doesn't issue walks, while also having a great track record of run prevention. There are a few guys I'd still rather have, but Kintzler would be a really solid addition to the bullpen. For a closer, I want elite performance, not good performance. I'd be happy to have him in a middle relief role, just not the highest leverage innings. Oh, I wouldn't at all want him closing, but he's plenty fine as another guy in the mix. Morrow would almost surely get the nod over him at least. And Wilson if he hasn't turned into Rick Ankiel.

I horsefeathering hope not 100% agree. but it's starting to feel that way. I'm confused by all the hate for Kintzler. Is everyone that obsessed with the K rate? He's been a groundball machine his entire career, rarely walks guys, and doesn't allow many dongs. He's a FIP beater and his consistent low 3s ERA isn't fluky. We're talking about a 306 2/3-inning sample of him putting together a 3.26 ERA out of the bullpen. And his game would work better than literally everywhere else with the Cubs' elite groundball defense, and the bullpen is already full of power arms that miss bats. More than anything they could use a guy that doesn't issue walks, while also having a great track record of run prevention. There are a few guys I'd still rather have, but Kintzler would be a really solid addition to the bullpen.

And possibly the Jays and Stroman. Both teams are projected for 82 wins right now and winning an AL Wild Card just got a hell of a lot more difficult over the last two days. I’m guessing the Jays make one more run at it with this group (Donaldson an upcoming FA), but you could argue they’re better off accepting what they (probably) are now.

It's possible, but -- as an example -- the Angels could sign Neil Walker on the same dollars, twice the projected WAR, and not give up a prospect.

I don’t think anyone has actually met with him or his reps. They’ve just sent in their questionnaire and maybe their presentation in PowerPoint or video form. He reviewed all those and is picking what 5 or so to go face to face meetings with now, I think. Oh okay. Well, that's one of way of doing it I guess. I thought teams were getting short 30 minute sessions with Ohtani and his agents this weekend in LA. This upcoming week in Los Angeles. Like, the Mariners told their people to clear their schedules for Tuesday through Friday this week to meet with him.