cubsclapp

Lester's four best years by fWAR: 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.8 Jose Quintana's last three seasons: 5.1 4.8 4.8 Three and half months does not outweigh four years of baseball. And over these last four years, Quintana has basically been "prime" Lester.

If you think we just traded for prime Jon Lester you are sadly mistaken Quintana's last three seasons matched up with Lester's career-best seasons, and he's only 28.

The list of pitchers with a higher fWAR since 2014 than Jose Quintana: Clayton Kershaw Chris Sale Max Scherzer Corey Kluber David Price Jake Arrieta Jon Lester No. 3 pitcher my ass.

Jesus horsefeathering christ

The Cubs just got a sub-30-year-old pitcher that has averaged 5-WAR for the last three years and is making basically nothing as far as baseball contracts go, and they didn't even have to give up a major leaguer to get him. They gave up a corner outfielder that will have to OPS .850+ to even be worth 2 wins a year, as well as a pitcher that has never thrown 60 innings in a professional season. Theo probably said yes to this trade before he could even process the idea of asking for anything else. And, I should make it clear that this trade is still as good for the White Sox. But just saying that there is really nothing to want more from this trade from the Cubs' perspective.

The Cubs just got a sub-30-year-old pitcher that has averaged 5-WAR for the last three years and is making basically nothing as far as baseball contracts go, and they didn't even have to give up a major leaguer to get him. They gave up a corner outfielder that will have to OPS .850+ to even be worth 2 wins a year, as well as a pitcher that has never thrown 60 innings in a professional season. Theo probably said yes to this trade before he could even process the idea of asking for anything else.

Wait there are actually people that don't love this deal?

I think or used to think Russell had a super high ceiling that he was capable of reaching someday, but I don't feel that way anymore. I don't think A. Russell is our B. Larkin v2.0, but instead is our version of B. Crawford w/o the long, flowing majestic hair. I think Baez has the much higher ceiling, but I also doubt he'll ever reach it. Both are still valuable -- just not as valuable as Lindor, Seager or Correa. I don't overly disagree, but I'd like to think this is a bottoming out point for Russell and an upswing is coming. I think he can still reach the Seager/Lindor class easier than Javy can. I hope a lot of Russell's drop off can be explained by the shoulder (hopefully nothing serious) and whatever was going on at home. And I'm not dismissing the DV stuff (if that's true F him) and even without it he's still a dickbag but still has/had to rightfully face some consequences for decisions he's made and has had that carry over to the field (again all brought on by idiot decisions/judgement best case scenario, worst case he's a wife beater and can go horsefeathers off for whatever we can get in a trade). Yeah, Russell is still very, very valuable, and is likely quite a bit better than this. At least a 3-4 win player. And by bWAR, he'll still be that this year due to his 13 DRS. Baez is not the shortstop Russell is and has a career .652 OPS vs right-handed pitching which you'd be asking him to face more as the everyday shortstop. You're also then making the second base defense worse, given Baez is currently starting a few times a week there. Unless the Cubs know more about this DV situation/have character concerns, it's hard to see a scenario where they trade him now, or even in the next few years. Even Russell's probably biggest known critic has him ranked 40th on the new trade value rankings (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-31-to-40/):

Good to see. I'd be interested to hear where his velocity was at. Ha, I came here hoping for this answer as well. I'm really curious if this was a bothersome thing at all (before going to the DL) or if he just had a tired arm and rest could potentially help. The Hendricks we saw before going to the DL had no room for error (4.51 FIP would agree with this). And I think the lack of velocity also forced him to nibble a little more, resulting in more walks. He really needs that 87-89 over the 84-86, and have the separation with the changeup too. If it hasn't improved, he will still help the team, but if he could be good to great Hendricks again, that could of course be huge. He seems like the Wild Card right now.

they're not bad but it's not like they're impressive No, they are impressive. Their offense is completely filthy this season and has been the entire time. They didn't have Braun for a month and it had no effect on them. Their starting pitching has overachieved but it has been way more than solid with the offense they have to back them up. Hader has a chance to be a big weapon in the second half and they will buy another starter. I realize I just made them sound like the 27 Yankees, but just know they are not the garbage team all of our elite posters made them out to be. And with a $62 million dollar payroll and a team that was supposed to be rebuilding. Unreal. The offense is 11th in wRC+ at 99. It's good, but hardly "completely filthy" and is behind the Reds, for example. It will be interesting to see if they can sustain this, given they have several guys that have previously either been bad players or not nearly this good. Outside of Villar, just about everyone is exceeding projections offensively, most by a ton. Some may stay awesome, but there's going to be some regression too, or else it's going be the luckiest/most unexpected collection of hitting in recent memory. And then there's the pitching, where of course Nelson and Anderson have been much better than ever before, with a defense that has 8 more errors than any other in the NL. But they keep finding a way to win, and that's definitely impressive.

What's so weird about Verlander is his velocity is the best it's been since 2011, and significantly up from the last few years. But his command has been awful, something that hadn't been an issue in the past. He walked 2.25/9 last year, and 2.16/9 in 2015. It's 4.32/9 right now. He's also given up 37.8% hard contact when his career rate is 27.1%. The velocity being there is certainly a great sign, but the command is weird. Maybe he's overthrowing or something. I know Jeff Sullivan speculated about it being thanks to Verlander's release point yesterday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-justin-verlander-trade-seems-highly-unlikely/ Anyway, if the front office is confident enough in him being better, fine by me.

Boise takes the lead in the top of the 20th.

Eugene headed to the 18th inning. Catcher Tyler Payne has thrown 2 scoreless innings.

Almora before the Reds game (0 for 3 vs a righty)... .226/.268/.311, 52 wRC+ vs righties (113 PA) .360/.475/.560, 173 wRC+ vs lefties (61 PA) It's not a large sample, obviously, but sheesh. He really looks helpless vs sliders. Once everyone returns from their injuries, probably treat Almora as a platoon player only or defensive specialist late. Can't really afford to screw around there anymore. I'd rather just trade for Cameron Maybin or Lorenzo Cain but yeah.

Good to see how Ademan and Amaya are doing at the dish. I also got a laugh at the box score saying Ademan has made his 7th error already (this is the 14th game). Error totals are pretty much meaningless in the minors and especially at the lower levels (and especially for 18-year-old shortstops), but that's quite a pace haha. But seriously that looks like a really fun group. Also glad to see Charcer Burks keeps doing his thing at Double-A.

Yeah, I stopped watching this game when the Cardinals took a 5-2 lead (and it seemed like it may get worse) in the 7th. I laughed pretty hard when I saw the Diamondbacks came back to win. That would've been a really nice win for the Cardinals and given them three in a row, but instead a very deflating loss. Oh has straight up been bad this year.

WTF? It was uncomfortable. Something like, "If Willson Contreras threw that last one away, I would've walked to DC myself and punched him in the face." He was like giggling about it but, you can't say that sort of horsefeathers on TV. I immediately changed the channel. I mean I was going to with DeJesus' cringeworthy analysis anyway.

Happ would be a no go for me right now whatever the case. They need him right now (and even if his OPS drops 200 points, he can still help them a lot). Hell he's already 4th among their position players in fWAR. He can play 4 positions (probably 3B and 1B if he had to as well), he switch-hits and you can comfortably use him vs any arm side, and he slots anywhere into the lineup. We also don't know how good/healthy Zobrist is going to be the rest of the year (hopefully an .800+ OPS bat, but who knows), we don't know anything with Schwarber, Baez is much worse vs right-handed pitching, and Almora is probably a .700 OPS hitter -- and stinks vs righties -- that the metrics so far think is pretty blah in CF. If we're in this situation still in the offseason, maybe you include Happ in a deal like this. Offer the Rays Eloy/Cease/Candelario/other decent prospect over the next month, but no on Happ (in my opinion). And if the asking prices are really this insane, consider short-term guys like Marco Estrada, JA Happ, Jason Vargas, and even like Cahill and Richard. If they went that route, they could also look to upgrade the position players and go after rentals like Lorenzo Cain or Cameron Maybin. If the price for Archer, Gray, _ good cost-controlled guy is really that bonkers, add a couple nice rentals to improve this current team and still be able to hang on to Eloy, Happ, and Cease (although someone like Cain may require a prospect like Cease). Then address the cost-controlled starter in the offseason.

The Cubs are already ahead in the loss column. This is true. Of course they have played three more games, but maybe we can win all three. Having the Reds at Wrigley for a three-game series to finish the season is a very nice thing to have in their back pocket.

Why is that? People are talking about giving up Eloy in a Sonny Gray package here. You don't think that's 1 for 1, do you? Since 2014, Gray has thrown 601 innings, to 568 for deGrom. Gray has been worth 8.5/8.7 WAR between FG and BR. DeGrom is at 13.6/13.2 over the same time. And deGrom has an extra year of control. Pitching costs. I spent a good half hour of my life looking into that idea before your post. It just seems (extra) unlikely for a couple reasons. 1. It's hard to see the Mets blowing up their plan quite yet, even if how it's going is hardly surprising to any of us given that arms break. They're paying Cespedes $29.5 through 2020, and, when healthy, Noah Syndergaard is one of the top-five pitchers in baseball and should be treated like he's in his prime these years. Would they really just say screw it and rebuild (even if perhaps they should)? 2. deGrom is 29, has had Tommy John, has only thrown at least 150 innings in the majors once, and you'd "only" get him for 3 more seasons (3.5 if you do it before the deadline). Do we want to give up Eloy and company for 3 years of an aging pitcher with a bad health and durability history? And we're then talking about him being a 33-year-old free agent at the same time the Cubs will be trying to lock up so many of their (other) own guys, so it's unlikely they keep him longer than the current contract. You'd at least like to feel good about the possibility of keeping a guy you acquire longer than the current team control. He's very intriguing and definitely worth looking into, but probably too many roadblocks to be all that realistic.

Hatch last six starts: 37 1/3 IP, 27 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 39 Zero homers allowed and a 3.33 ERA in 70 1/3 innings.

And the Twins, Rays, Mariners, and Brewers all seem like 50/50 bets to finish .500+. FanGraphs has none of them winning over 81.

I'm gonna go ahead and say that Theo is not trading this guy when his value is at its lowest.

He had that little stretch after the oppo granny where he was crushing balls to LF-LCF but then he destroyed Harvey and it seems like he went right back to trying to yank everything. What article is this from and is there more quotes from Theo, Jed and Joe anywhere? Theo was on the radio (http://chicago.cbslocal.com/audio/670-the-score-interviews/). He kept talking about how Kyle Schwarber is a *hitter*, not purely a *slugger* like he's been this year. Referenced Schwarber's 2015, his return to the World Series, how he was a .333 hitter in the minors, etc etc. They firmly believe he's an awesome overall hitter and not an all-or-nothing slugger. So, that's what they want to see progress towards, and they felt with his slump and pressing at the majors that it would be hard for him to rediscover these traits right now. Now, at the same time, you could make the argument that the best way to work these things out is against major-league pitching. He could hit .330 with a 1.000 OPS in the PCL and that still may not tell us much until he's producing in the bigs. And I do think the timing is kind of odd, as I've felt he's looked a bit better in the last few weeks. But, I'll trust Theo Epstein, especially when it comes to his large adult son Kyle Schwarber.