BigbadB

Looks like he was basically in the 3 spot to stay in game 18. It almost coincides with Nomar's injury, which appears to have happened in game 16.

Amazing facts there, Diffusion. I had been under the impression that Dusty Baker probably screwed Derrek Lee out of an MVP award, now I don't think there's any question about it. Someone should really show this stuff to Lee. Getting the team's stars angry at Dusty would be the fastest way to get rid of him. Let me just quickly do this properly... All-Time (excluding Derrek Lee's 2005) 110 or more XBH, average of 173 RBI 105 or more XBH, average of 160 RBI 100 or more XBH, average of 155 RBI 95 or more XBH, average of 152 RBI 90 or more XBH, average of 145 RBI 85 or more XBH, average of 136 RBI 80 or more XBH, average of 128 RBI 75 or more XBH, average of 122 RBI Post-1945 (excluding Derrek Lee's 2005) 105 or more XBH, average of 142 RBI 100 or more XBH. average of 141 RBI 95 or more XBH, average of 139 RBI 90 or more XBH, average of 133 RBI 85 or more XBH, average of 130 RBI 80 or more XBH, average of 123 RBI 75 or more XBH, average of 119 RBI I think the post-1945 (an arbitrary cut-off point, but I think it serves its purpose) is more relevant. Relative to the post-1945 average, Lee fell about 33 RBI short. And let's just say that, given that he hit .331/.480/.653 with runners in scoring position, the falling short wasn't Lee's fault. Had Lee got those extra 33 RBI, he'd have easily led the league in RBI (as well as average), so he'd have been 6 home runs short of the Triple Crown. Outstanding work. Just further shows that this management team is clueless. Patterson, Neifi, Lawton and Macias combined for over 350 at bats in the lead off spot and sported .263, .263, .269 and .270 OBP's respectively. Perez, Patterson, Neifi and Enrique Wilson combined for over 360 at bats in the 2 hole, and sported .300, .220, .286 and .200 OBP's respectively. Murton and Cedeno both have done very well in their limited role at the top of the order, yet Hendry says they aren't ready to hit the top of the order yet. Apparently, you can't hit at the top of the order until you prove you can get your OBP to dip below .300. That might also explain why Walker and Hairston have been long time members of Dusty's doghouse. They were the two guys who could actually get on base at a decent clip, yet Hairston got more bench time than he deserved, and they can't wait to trade Walker. I don't get it.

The 2004 team was clearly the best team he put together. 04' & 05' the Cubs were decimated with injuries & teams like the Astros & Cards, had very healthy pitching staffs. Health/depth will be the main determining factor on how good the Cubs will be in 06'. Right now, there is no depth in the outfield. Maybe he still plans on addressing that before they head into Spring Training. If not, the outfield is going to be a major concern for the 2nd year in a row.

So you think that Ramirez will draw more walks than Lee? Whoops. I calculated that wrong, didn't I? Because Lee will have more walks, he'll show less at bats per plate appearance, so I did that backwards. Nevermind. But, the batting higher in the line up and durability argument I'll still argue. :P

Agreed. If you are going to make millions a year to play a game, the least you can do to earn those millions is to pretend to care about the game enough to be ready to play. It's a shame that less talented players who do stay in shape 12/365 never see a major league roster. But, if you are going to beat them out of a job and sign that big contract, you owe it to your employer, the fans and those less talented players to show up to camp ready to play.

Walks alone would probably account for a difference in close to 40-50 at bats. Lee batting 3rd and Ramirez hitting 4th is another 15+ at bats (guestimate) for Lee. Combine that with the fact Lee has been more durable throughout a full season and voila!

For players with 99 or more XBH in a single season, average of 147 RBI that same year; for players with exactly 99 XBH, 133 RBI; for players between 97 and 101 XBH, 149 RBI; for player with 88 or more XBH, 145 RBI. Now that really puts things into perspective. Nice work again, Diffusion. It's too bad we couldn't somehow figure out how poorly the top two spots had on the clean up hitter as well. I wonder how many of Ramirez' RBI's last year were just Derrek Lee. Lee had 680 (give or take a couple) plate appearances and 107 RBI's. Aramis had 500 (give or take) plate appearances and 92 RBI's. How many would he have had with a couple of .340+ OBP guys along with Lee's .418 hitting in front of him instead of mostly sub .300 guys?

I'd rather see Williams in there to start. Rusch is more familiar with long relief.

I'd like an explanation of how Cedeno or Murton are not ready to be #2 hole hitters, yet Neifi is? Neifi had a .300 OBP as a #2 hitter last year. How many of his GIDP's were from the 2 hole last year? Neifi had a .263 OBP as a lead off hitter last year. I'll take my chances on Cedeno or Murton before I let Neifi anywhere near the top of the order, thank you very much.

Ready for what? Soft tossing? According to reports, he is soft tossing already & will be ready to throw off the mound in February. Supposedly, what will take the most time is to get his velocity & stamina back. Ah, I was just being sarcastic, but hope he will be ready by opening day. Or at least the first time he would be slated to start.

Nice work, Diff. I have a new one for you to work on. :D Average RBI's per season for guys who have had 99 or more XBH's in a season. And just for kicks and giggles, another one with 88 or more XBH's.

Ready for what? Soft tossing?

I agree to an extent. But I would never build a team with walks as my centerpiece. I would much rather have a hit than a walk. Like I said, the best case if to build up a player's pitch selection so they don't end up chasing pitches six inches above their head ala Corey Patterson. Corey's problem wasn't that he didn't take enough walks per se, it was that his pitch selection was crap, which lead to less walks and less hits than he should have had. I don't think anyone is suggesting you focus the offense on the walk alone. The Cubs had the 2nd best AVG in the league. The Cubs had the 2nd best SLG in the league. They had by far the worst walk rate. Couple that with very poor judgment on the managers part by putting some of the worst OBP guys on the team in the top spots in the order, and you have a recipe for exactly what happened last year, poor run production. The White Sox didn't have good OBP guys for the most part either, last year. But, they didn't put sub .300 OBP guys in front of their most productive hitters like Dusty. Derrek Lee had 99 XBH's last year. Of all the guys who have ever hit 99+ XBH's in a season, Derrek Lee is clearly in last place on that list for RBI's.

Instead of wasting your thoughts away on pipe dreams, how 'bout you come up with some possible scenario where the Cubs could actually acquire those two without giving up some key component for next year's team? I don't see the Cubs just sitting around with an extra Coco Crisp to throw the Red Sox way and please don't suggest Patterson. So many fans here seem insistant on focusing on the "why not" rather than the "how"...no wonder so many have a warped sense of reality. Of course, playing video game GMs have that impact sometimes.... Thanks for taking a personal shot at dkwg at the end there. That was uncalled for. Oh please. Don't be so overly sensitive. Anyone who thinks that the Cubs could have gotten Marte and Shoppach without messing up the team the Cubs are going to put on the field this year is in a fantasy land. It's not hard to pull of these trades in video games...maybe that is a factor in leading to this warped perception of reality. "Personal shot"? Give me a break. READ THE PM I SENT YOU! And a refresher course on the NSBB Guidelines might be in order as well, which you can find in my sig.

The timely hitting was there, Jim. The guys who draw the walks in front of timely hitting were not. I'm not so sure that the timely hitting was there. We left a lot of runners in scoring position including a number of basesloaded situations IIRC. It's difficult to have timely hitting when there are not many guys on base to create timely hitting in the first place. Walks are fine but I'd rather have a team that relied on timely hits. You can't build a team around telling guys to walk. You can just try to stress pitch selection, which should lead to better hitting and more walks. Having guys on base to be driven in isn't just walks. But, the only thing lacking from the Cubs offense last year was walks. Toss another 150 walks on their team stats for last year and the problem with run scoring isn't even a discussion.

The timely hitting was there, Jim. The guys who draw the walks in front of timely hitting were not. I'm not so sure that the timely hitting was there. We left a lot of runners in scoring position including a number of basesloaded situations IIRC. It's difficult to have timely hitting when there are not many guys on base to create timely hitting in the first place.

Eventually? I will absolutely scream if Neifi or Jones see any part of the top of the order this year. Nice question for Jim: Jim, did you know that Neifi Perez hit .305 in the 7th spot in the order last year? Did you also know that Neifi Perez hit .318 in the 8th spot? Can you make sure Dusty knows this too?

The timely hitting was there, Jim. The guys who draw the walks in front of timely hitting were not.

If the Sox get Crisp, I like them in the NL East. Crisp (62 XBH's from a lead off hitter ++ Constantly improving OBP) Loretta (capable of .370+ OBP in friendly hitting Fenway) Manny Ortiz Nixon Lowell Varitek Snow/Youkilis Cora/Gonzalez? Schilling Beckett Clement Wells Wakefield Arroyo I think Foulke will bounce back this year. This team will score a lot of runs.

Wow, Dusty is going to play the kids. :shock:

Whoops. I have been caught browsing. :D

I'm picking the Dodgers in the NL West, so add them to the list. I know, sounds crazy, but even with questionable starting pitching, offense is what they have drastically improved on this offseason. Furcal Mueller Drew Kent Cruz Jr. Nomar Werth Navarro Penny Lowe Perez Tomko Seo/Miller/Broxton Nice pen with Lance Carter, DJ Houlton, Brazoban, Baez, Gagne Nice bench with Choi, Saenz, Lofton, Repko, Robles, Izturis (eventually), Alomar According to Odalis Perez' career history, he'll be good next year. Lowe was respectable. Penny isn't a great #1, but with a good offense and good bullpen, he doesn't need to be. Tomko and Seo will be alright end of the rotation filler until Miller and the other kids are ready.

Don't get me wrong. I only said that I was optimistic about the future in 2003. Strong farm system, good players on the roster, excellent pitching staff, coming off a playoff appearance, available cash to spend to improve the club, etc... It's been a lot of downhill action from there.

I don't know how anyone can say Hendry is on the right track, offensively. At the end of the 2006 season Lee, Wood, Williamson, Barrett, Pierre and Walker can all leave via free agency. Aramis can opt out of his contract at the end of next season. Maddux will be gone. How exactly do they replace all those guys if they decide to test the market? Who does that leave on offense? Actually, I'm not certain on Barrett. But, if he is a free agent at the end of this year, here is what we have to work with in 2007. Murton, Jones, Cedeno, Perez. Add Barrett if he's not a free agent next year and it's still a skeleton of an offense. I don't see how this is being on the right track. A quick search of the free agent list for 2007 leaves a lot to be desired. A look at how depleted the farm is now due to poor trades and management of the 40 man roster doesn't provide a whole lot of hope for trades to improve the team next offseason. If Murton and Cedeno bust, there is nothing left for this team on the offensive side except hope that Felix Pie will pan out. That's obviously worst case scenario, but I don't understand how anyone can be frustrated with a few of us who haven't been the slightest bit pleased with the way this offseason has gone. I suppose I could attempt to take the optimistic approach. But, what is there to be optimistic about? That Cedeno will play just good enough to keep Neifi on the bench? That Jones will have a career year? That when one of Jones or Murton become injured, we always have Marquis Grissom or John Mabry to step in and play everyday? That Dusty might actually get a clue on how to fill out a line up card? Maybe I can just be optimistic that all the other teams in the NL Central did nothing to improve and therefore by process of deduction, the Cubs have a shot at winning the division with 88 wins. From where we were in 2003 to where we are now, I see a substantial decrease in my optimism that the management team that is currently in place can create a winning atmosphere for a significant amount of time. And that is something that should be expected from an organization that has the capabilities to spend what they spend each year on annual salaries.

What about the players? Ha! Good one. Here's my nomination: The Tampa Bay Sunny Beaches