BigbadB

On a semi-related note, I'm happy to hear Patterson is progressing well. If management feels that Patterson could be ready as early as midseason, I could understand not blocking him entirely with a guy like Durham. This past year, they had no one to play SS outside of Cedeno and Neifi. DeRosa is a much better option than Neifi, IMO.

DeRosa was not on my 2b wishlist. Durham, Giles, Lugo, Iwamura, Soriano, Loretta, Belliard were on my list. It's too much money and it's too many years, but I'm not going to go ballistic about this signing until I see what happens with the rest of the offseason. I actually like DeRosa as a platoon with Jones. I like DeRosa as a super-utility player. I like DeRosa as an injury replacement. If Hendry gets the starting pitching and offense that is necessary to be a good team next year while paying DeRosa more than 4m a year, cool. I'm a bit nervous about that considering Rusch, Neifi and Blanco last year, but it's going to take a lot more than that for me to get worked up over this team. It's been way too frustrating for that. I just became an uncle today for the 3rd time and the wife and I officially became homeowners today, so Hendry isn't spoiling this day for me no matter what he does. Welcome to the Cubs, Mark DeRosa.

Is Adam Eaton a FA this offseason?

This is just going to be a year where teams will have to severely overpay to get what they want, whether it's through the free agent market or trade. It does make the Ramirez signing look really good at this point. But, adding key parts to improve the team will be a much more difficult task.

If the FA market was ripe with talent, he wouldn't get anything near that. Considering that it would take one of Schmidt, Matsuzaka, Zito, Soriano, Drew or Lee to get a marquee player in this market, and there are 30 teams vying for those few players, the bids will be much higher. Teams can probably even feel somewhat comfortable pushing the bids up with no intent to actually sign. With teams showing interest in Pavano and the Yankees already shedding Bernie Williams money, Sheffield money, Jaret Wright money, etc... even they don't have to worry about being thrifty. Not that they were ever thrifty to begin with.

Jacque Jones can play CF. I'd do that deal straight up today.

Agreed. But, I think Zito will get that much from someone. Since the Dodgers lost out on an opportunity to throw big money at Ramirez, they might throw it at Zito now. They had LaRoche to put at 3b anyway. With their ability to go super cheap with guys like Ethier, Martin, Kemp, Betemit, LaRoche, Billingsley, Broxton, etc...it would be easy for them to spend big money on Zito, which is their biggest need, IMO.

I haven't been including Zito on any of my wish lists, for the most part. I knew he would cost too much and someone will give him that money, and I'm not convinced he'll be better than Rich Hill next year. I'd go hard after Schmidt with a real short term contract for high dollars. Say 2/30m with a 3rd year vesting option that could make it 3/45. I'd then attempt to defer half of the contract in 2008 and the vesting year so that this big dollar contract doesn't interfere with locking up Zambrano. With the short deal, he could maybe get one more contract for 3 or 4 years after that.

Giles lifetime: Wrigley:.312/.483/.670/1.153 GAP: .309/.443/.509/.952 Busch: .337/.464/.705/1.169 Busch 2: .375/.500/.750/1.250 Miller: .283/.430/.517/.947 PNC: .325/.441/.606/1.047 Juicebox: .290/.418/.497/.914 Petco: .272/.377/.430/.807 AT&T: .306/.438/.437/.934 Dodger: .258/.335/.429/.764 Coors: .284/.412/.574/.986 BOB: .279/.350/.536/.885 Best OPS parks in 2006 in order: 1. New Busch Stadium 2. Angel Stadium 3. PNC 4. Turner 5. Ameriquest 6. Minutemaid 7. GAP 8. Chase 9. Wrigley 5 of the top 9 are NL Central Best OPS parks in 2005 in order: 1. GAP 2. Old Busch 3. Coors 4. Shea 5. Minutemaid 6. AT&T 7. Metrodome 8. Wrigley 9. Turner 4 of the top 9 are NL Central I think an argument can still be made that he would likely see a nice SLG increase if he played in the NL Central.

Because Giles is 35, a drop off in production is likely. However, I do believe the parks he plays in plays a huge role. I watch him play nearly everyday. He's a pull hitter that can't reach the seats in Petco Park. A lot of those long fly balls to RF are caught by the RFer. In many other parks, these would be home runs. 20 HR's worth? I'm not sure. But, there aren't many players who can reach the seats in RF consistently in that park. As was pointed out earlier in the thread, Giles SLG splits on the road were only .026 points higher, and his road OPS was still under .800, only .018 higher than home. The ballpark argument doesn't hold, at least for 2006. Actually, I think the argument does hold. LA, Arizona when the lid is closed and San Fran are other poor places to hit. Colorado is a very difficult place to hit a home run, though it is a very friendly hitting park. Though, even that park saw a significant decrease in runs scored this past year.

Because Giles is 35, a drop off in production is likely. However, I do believe the parks he plays in plays a huge role. I watch him play nearly everyday. He's a pull hitter that can't reach the seats in Petco Park. A lot of those long fly balls to RF are caught by the RFer. In many other parks, these would be home runs. 20 HR's worth? I'm not sure. But, there aren't many players who can reach the seats in RF consistently in that park. A move to the NL Central, a division I view as one of the most hitter friendly divisions in MLB, IMO, would provide a significant improvement in SLG. But, it's only my opinion. It's possible that age has truly caught up with him more than I'm willing to admit. I said it last year when he signed with San Diego. Going back to that park is going to kill his numbers. I can't tell you how many times he stood their in amazement when a crushed ball that would hit the upper deck in other parks landed in the RFers mitt at the warning track at Petco. The frustration that I saw on the faces of he and Klesko the first year they played in Petco was what convinced me that both couldn't wait to get out of Petco. It's not a favorable park for LH bats at all. If the Cubs signed Drew and maybe Ray Durham, I think the Cubs could get away with a platoon of Jones in RF. I'd rather see Brian Giles out there because of the massive improvement in OBP and in my opinion, an improvement in SLG. But, the Cubs do need to improve OBP somehow, significantly.

Is an OBP like the one Jacque Jones provides killing this team? No. However, having mediocre to below average OBP at several positions is killing this team. If you can improve OBP at 1 or more positions, you should. I also want to point out that I only picked the Phillies as a comparison because they led the league in scoring runs. I could use just about any other team in MLB to further illustrate my point. OBP is a good thing and it should be welcomed with open arms.

As far as how much more productive a guy with a higher OBP can be, it is rather minute in the big picture. A team needs to value OBP throughout the line up. 21 more times on base at one position isn't much. 21 more times on base at every spot in the line up is massively significant. Cubs batting average in 2006: .268 Phils batting average in 2006: .267 Cubs times on base via hit or walk: 1891 Phils times on base via hit or walk: 2144 Cubs runs scored: 716 Phils runs scored: 865 8 position players x 21 extra hits or walks = 168 times on base Add 168 to the Cubs times on base in 2006= 2059 That still doesn't equal the amount of times on base for the Phillies in 2006. Brian Giles would not fix the OBP issues the Cubs have. But, adding a Brian Giles or JD Drew and several other replacement players that provide an exceptional OBP above what the Cubs players did in 2006 is how the Cubs can score more runs. Only a small handful of teams had a higher batting average than the Cubs last year. That's it. A small handful. However, EVERY SINGLE team in the NL walked more than the Cubs. The 2nd worst team in the league at drawing walks last year (Pittsburgh) drew 64 more walks than the Cubs. The SECOND WORST team. If you look at the top teams in runs scored each year, you'll see a consistency there. The higher OBP teams tend to score more runs. Couple in a respectable OBP with some timely hitting and you really score a lot of runs. AVG isn't nearly as good as a predictor of runs scored.

Where are you getting the .375 OBP vs. the .345 OBP? Who do these OBP's belong to? Jones last year: .334 Jones career: .328 Giles last year: .374 Giles career: .408 I wouldn't have an issue discussing the difference in OBP if you were using numbers that closely resemble both players. Jones and the .345 OBP is a number he's never accomplished in a single major league season, let alone for his career. The .375 OBP for Giles is the worst he's ever put up in a major league season.

Someone explain that logic to me please. Yeah, Scott Moore and his 15 something HR's and 60 something RBI's and his 24/7 media availability would be much better. This would be a good place for :roll:

Scott Eyre, Carlos Marmol and Glendon Rusch for Bonderman? Holy Cow! Are you sure you meant Bonderman? The Tigers would probably take that deal if you threw in one more player. Derrek Lee

I'm glad Kerry is back and I appreciate that he's willing to take a huge discount to stay. However, I do have my concerns about Kerry in a reliever role. He's always had control issues, which is not something that you want to see a reliever have. More than anything, I'm hoping in time he can put it all back together and be a starter again. By keeping him in a Cub uniform, the likelihood is more favorable, IMO, that if that were to happen, it would happen as a Cub.

Chris Harris should be shot for his little dance as well.

I would definitely take him. Jacque Jones is a San Diego native. He's younger and can cover more ground defensively. But, I'm not sure I'd offer up much more than that. I watch Giles quite a bit being here in San Diego. His power isn't really as sapped as people tend to believe. The park effect has really impacted Giles' offensive numbers in a huge way. But, getting Brian Giles might work out well to get Marcus too. :wink:

I've seen this written more than once and I have to disagree. Izturis at SS, Theriot (unknown production level) or Cedeno at 2nd, Pie in CF? An outfield of Murton, Pie, Jones wouldn't be creating any buzz. Zambrano, Hill and what? Prior? Miller? Marshall? Guzman? Marmol? The only strength this team has right now is the bullpen. You are welcome to disagree. You just won't convince me that the team they have now is anything more than a .500 team at best. I do believe that there are players available this offseason that would make this team the best in the NL Central on paper, but Hendry has a lot of work to do to make that happen. I wish him the best of luck and I hope he makes it happen. I wasn't always a pessimist with this team/organization. It was only recently (within the last few years) that I lost my faith. If Hendry can land Drew or Soriano, one of the 3 big FA pitchers and a couple of solid role players (Durham/Loretta/Lugo, etc...), he would restore some of my lost optimism.

With Boras as an agent, you can expect he'll hold out as long as necessary to get his clients top dollar.

Do the Yankees have room on their 25 man roster to add all those guys? I doubt it. How about sending Pie, Marshall, Mateo and Moore to Florida for Cabrera. If they won't do that deal, how about the same offer to send Dontrelle Willis to the Yankees and A-Rod to the Cubs? Maybe the Cubs offer up Wuertz to the Yankees as an added incentive?

One free agent signing will not set the tone. While your numbers are probably close to what these players will receive, what will really set the bar is how much teams are willing to pay for a player's services. If two big market teams are bidding back and forth, the money could go much higher. Furcal got way more than he deserved last year. That's because a team swooped in with a ridiculous offer to ensure that they were the team that landed him.

I mentioned the coaching staff. I also agreed that this isn't a 66 win team as it is currently constructed. I've been one of his biggest critics, as you are well aware. However, it's not a team that can finish over .500 as it is currently constructed. To be fair, I realize the offseason is just beginning and I'm willing to see where this offseason takes us. If he lost Ramirez, nothing he could have done this offseason would have been able to gain my support. Even if Hendry does manage to put together an excellent offseason, I can't simply ignore his faults that put this team in the toilet the past few years. I could forgive him, but it will take a complete turnabout to make that happen. The poor decisions to give players like Neifi and Rusch big money, the poor decision to not replace Dusty and his horrible coaching staff before 2006, let alone at some point during 2006, the failure to make the moves necessary to be a competitive team, his inability to recognize the true weaknesses of the team, trading prospects for a non-difference making 1 year rental like Juan Pierre, etc...

Hendry can't build this team like he's built the last several teams if he wants to be competitive. He MUST provide depth. When a guy like Lee goes down for a significant amount of time, there has to be someone more significant than Todd Walker to stick at 1b. He has to assume that someone could miss a little action. Freddie Bynum and John Mabry don't cut it. He MUST recognize the weaknesses of the team and strengthen them. WALKS Walks in the two most important aspects of the game. They walked less than 400 times last year. Pathetic. The pitching staff walked 687 guys last year. Pathetic. This must be addressed. A long-standing weakness has also been a failure to provide quality hitters in front of the big offensive production guys. Less than .350 OBP guys at the top of the order need not apply. He MUST improve fundamentals. Hopefully, that's already been addressed with a new manager. He MUST rebuild the farm system. This coming July, if it's apparent that they aren't going to make the playoffs, screw the win/loss column. Get some value from players who are not going to be part of the long term solutions. There are other things he must do, but that's a pretty good start. I agree with CubsWin that this is not a 66 win team. They improved on that number by replacing Dusty with Piniella. A healthy Lee improves that number. A full season of Murton likely improves that number. No Neifi batting 2nd improves that number. But, they aren't only an Aramis or Lee injury away from being that 66 win team again. So now, it's time to add some talent and some depth.