BigbadB

Baseball Prospectus (subscription required for most data) keeps pretty close tabs of PAP.

The Cubs were much closer to be a 100 loss team this year than a .500 team. I believe there is plenty of reason for panic.

If he promises to keep Izturis as strictly a bench player, I might turn into a fan of his.

To get that kind of results, that team had to be CONstructed of guys who already had the ability to get on base. That has little/nothing to do with the manager. That's all on Hendry. Instead of signing or trading for guys like Neifi, Bynum, etc... you steer clear of the guys who will drag down the team offensively. Baker had decent OBP guys on the team. He refused to bat them at the top of the order. I don't know what Piniella will do, but ultimately, that's the one way he can have a negative or positive impact on the overall offensive production. I turned on the Tigers game the other day, and there was Neifi Perez batting 2nd. A lot, and I do mean a lot, of managers just do not get the whole OBP concept.

With Lou coming on board, let's see, Aramis has the choice of resigning with a manager who will berate him up and down on a daily basis for his lack of hustle, or he could put himself on the market to 29 other teams that value his production over hustle. Weighing in also is that Hendry values a manager more than one of the 3 "franchise" players on this roster, and my attachment to staying in Chicago wouldn't be high on my priority list anymore, either. It was nice knowing you, Aramis.

We wouldn't need to give them 15m if we were taking one of their biggest breadwinners off their hands. :wink: Also, let whatever team trades for Willis pay half their payroll.

I'm really torn on Soriano. I don't think I'd mess with him. I'd keep him within my sights, but I'd focus on trades to make the team better along with less significant FA signings. I'd bring back Wade Miller, Kerry Wood and extend Aramis. I would target guys like Julio Lugo, Durham, Vicente Padilla and Kenny Lofton on the market. I'd attempt to trade Jacque Jones and Bob Howry along with a prospect for JD Drew. I'd attempt to trade Cedeno, Dempster (and cash) and a prospect pitcher to Tampa for Crawford. OF: Murton, Crawford, Drew, Restovich, Lofton, Pagan IF: Ramirez, Lugo, Durham, Lee, Izturis, Theriot C: Barrett, Soto SP: Zambrano, Prior, Miller, Hill, Padilla, Marshall, Guzman, etc... RP: Eyre, Wuertz, Wood, Marmol, Mateo, Novoa, Aardsma, Ohman, Rusch Crawford (age 25, .348 OBP in 2006, just entering prime) Lugo (age 31, .340+ OBP last 3 years) Lee (needs no introduction) Drew (lefty power bat desperately needed in between Lee and Ramirez) Ramirez (will absolutely love driving in guys from the 5 slot) Durham (potential top of the order guy, placeholder for Patterson) Murton (could be involved in midseason trade if Pie is ready) Barrett (is there a better #8 hitter in the league?) Durham and Murton are like a whole 2nd top of the order, but at the bottom. Sign a Kevin Millar type as a 4th outfielder/1b in case Murton is moved to make room for Pie. Crawford slides over to LF. Besides, replacing Pagan or Lofton with someone like Millar provides a bit more pop off the bench. That's how I would rebuild for 2007. They might have to give up a few decent prospects to get guys like Crawford and Drew, but that's two guys I think I'd rather have than someone like Soriano.

I don't know why he wouldn't consider the Cubs job. He's underappreciated in San Diego. The fans want him gone. I've been upset with San Diego for not opening up the wallets for more talent and I'm not even a Padres fan. Imagine how Boch must feel watching ownership put it all in their wallet. Look at San Diego's attendance in that fancy new, high priced stadium to know they are doing quite well. Yet, Bochy goes out and wins divisions with very little to work with. Send him our way. They can have Dusty.

If he takes the challenge of the Cubs job, I'll be challenging myself to take a huge break from baseball. And I'd really rather not have to do that.

My apologies for bringing up Pierre again, but in his defense, he can't walk. Pitchers aren't afraid of him. They can groove one in on him all day long and 7 times out of 10, he's going to hit it to the 2nd baseman. On those 3 in 10 times where it gets past the 2b, Pierre has another 25% chance of running into an out attempting to steal a base. Because he is not a threat with the bat and therefore will not ever be a walk machine, he is of little to no value.

I won't be complaining about 18-1, with the 1 loss coming during the regular season.

How long has Piggy been in the minors. He's not a 6 year free agent yet?

The Bears 3rd string is better than the Packers, so I would most definitely sit the starters if home field was not an issue. I don't think the Bears will go 16-0, however. Someone is going to get a game on them. That's my bold prediction. I think I'd actually prefer a loss during the regular season rather than during playoffs. Gotta remember what it's like to lose a game so you can focus on NOT losing when it matters most.

Roberts played for the Padres in 2006. He made LESS than Neifi Perez. In 129 games, Roberts got on base via hit or walk 197 times. Pierre got on base 234 times in 162 games. Roberts would have passed Pierre easily given the same plate appearances and 162 games played. Why pay 6m or more for something that you can get for 3m or less? And if Roberts wasn't available, there's still a ton of other options that would be cheaper and better than Pierre at leading off. I'll be happy to take the compensation when Pierre signs a long term deal with a team willing to give him one.

I don't know. Something tells me Josh Barfield will be a better player in the long term than Cedeno.

Buying the whole set of Topps each year is the direction I've gone. While it costs quite a bit for a whole set, each year there are rookies that come up who will more than cover the cost of the original set. Buying the whole set assures you that you get one of everyone. Buying them by the pack like I did when I was a kid only assures you to get multiple duplicates of the scrub players whose card will never have value. As a kid, I did enjoy the surprise element of individual packs, but walked away disappointed more often than not.

I'd say depends. With A-Rod: 2 (getting beat in playoffs after both years) Without A-Rod: 1.5 (sub-.500) Theres no way the Yankees will be under .500 even without ARod. I wouldn't say there's no way. The AL East gets tougher each year. If Tejada is successful in luring Soriano and Baltimore could land Jason Schmidt, they could be a pretty good team in '07. Toronto isn't a slouch. Boston is always a threat and Tampa just needs to find some arms to go with their continually improving offense. Meanwhile, NY continues to get older. Bernie Williams, Gary Sheffield, Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson could all be gone. Zito and Schmidt both seem to prefer the west coast. Not really sure what FA's the Yankees might pursue and land this offseason. It's all about pitching for them, and there isn't much out there.

Nowhere in my post did I say that the Cubs should have had a winning season. Before the season ever started, I penciled in the Cubs as one of the worst teams in the division. That was before the Derrek Lee injury. With that said, Dusty did not make the Cubs a better team. He made them even worse, IMO. He continued to support his aggressive approach even though it hasn't worked. The 2003 team made the playoffs, but it was the pitching that did it for them. The offense was average to below average, and it never really got much better during his tenure. While I'm sure it's not just Baker's issue, Baker only festered the OBP problems with this team by batting horrible options at the top of the order. 2003: 13th in the NL in OBP 14th in the NL in BB 9th in the NL in runs scored 2004: 11th in the NL in OBP 14th in the NL in BB 7th in the NL in runs scored 2005: 11th in the NL in OBP 16th in the NL in BB 9th in the NL in runs scored 2006: 16th in the NL in OBP 16th in the NL in BB 15th in the NL in runs scored The Cubs have not finished higher in OBP than 14th during Dusty's tenure. The Cubs will also show one of the worst OBP's in the two lead off spots over the last 3 years. This organization needs to place more value on getting guys on base. This organization needs to place more value on putting guys that are good at getting on base at the top of the order. I don't blame Baker entirely. I wanted everyone gone all the way up to and including MacPhail.

I'm cool with that. I'm just glad you didn't lay all of the blame on me for Dusty. I endorsed him, not really knowing all that much about him. At the same time, I felt Dusty did do some good things in San Francisco. His teams drew walks at a very respectable clip. His Giant teams didn't seem all that "aggressive" at the plate. His top of the order guys were good to decent OBP guys. Why he didn't do that here is beyond me. I didn't totally buy into the pitcher abuse theory when Dusty was being considered for the Cubs managerial position, so I was definitely wrong there. As far as the youth coming into Chicago at that time, I didn't think Dusty had much choice but to play them. Hendry really seemed like a guy who would force the youngsters to play since he was promoted from the minor league system he built.

It didn't really happen that way. Deivi Cruz was playing SS and D'Angelo Jimenez was playing 2nd. Jimenez was traded in July to make room for Vazquez to play everyday at 2nd. The next year, Vazquez took over at SS. They liked Vazquez, but Greene was coming along and the Padres didn't feel that Vazquez provided the necessary power to have an everyday job in the new, huge dimensional stadium they were in.

Pardon me for quoting myself, but I wanted to expound on this comment from my first post in this thread. Not only because I don't believe I explained why he's worn out his welcome clearly enough, but because I've spoken to a few Padres season ticket holders since I made that post. San Diego is a pretty big market, but emulates a small market in regard to MLB. San Diego plays the "whoa is me" card way too much, but they get away with it, somehow. After building a brand new stadium, the owner cried poor and didn't spend nearly as much money as he originally stated he would to put a competitive team on the field. The Padres have back to back division championships. But, are they really that good? In 2005, San Diego was battling against the Dodgers (in the middle of ownership, management and player changes), San Fran (in the middle of management and half ass player personnel changes), Colorado (no sense of direction) and Arizona (total reconstruction after a total self destruction). The Padres finished 1 game over .500. The team wasn't good. The fans here don't really look at the win/loss record in the standings. They don't compare the team to other division winners. They only seek results in the playoffs. When the team fails in the playoffs, the fans place all the blame on the manager. I spoke with a few Padres season ticket holders yesterday. I asked if they had heard the Bochy to Chicago rumors. They both said "good". It couldn't happen soon enough. They can no longer stand him. Moores has cheated Towers and Bochy in regards to giving them the necessary tools to go out and win. No manager can perform miracles with a horrible roster. The fans here don't see it that way.

Jim Essian won 4 less games than he lost. Baker was 66-96 with a 95m payroll. The Joey Amalfitano managed team of 1981 is arguably one of the worst Chicago Cubs teams ever assembled. Dusty's 2006 team was most certainly not one of the worst teams ever assembled. Joey wasn't winning many ball games. But, it was pretty much to be expected. Dusty wasn't winning many ball games. With Dusty and the team he was given, he WAS expected to win. Lee Elia took over a team in 1982 that featured a pitching staff that most wouldn't have even heard of outside of a 39 year old Fergie Jenkins. Dusty had Wood, Prior, Zambrano and Maddux. I was not a fan of Elia, but he most certainly did more with less when you compare him and how Dusty did less with more.

If I moved A-Rod for one of those guys, it wouldn't have been any lower than 6th. Period.

I think the baseball team that employs him will be able to name their price rather than the other way around. He's a broken down player who is only continuing for his own personal goals. Anaheim seems like a decent fit. Oakland would to if it weren't for Thomas.

I agree. This situation is similar to the Sosa one. Baker waited to long to move him in the order and along with putting latroy hawkins as closer it doomed us in 04, among otherthings. But like A-Rod he couldn't handle the fans pressure on him. Under those circumstances you'd have to move him in the order, whether his name is Arod, Mantle or Ruth. Yes, Baker did wait too long to move Sosa. But, A-Rod is not where Sosa was. Would I drop Lee down to 6th or 7th in favor of Jacque Jones with the season on the line because Lee slumped for a few games? Not a chance.