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nilodnayr

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Everything posted by nilodnayr

  1. nilodnayr
    I'd go with Upton for sure and Hamels as well. But I would pick a couple SP in the first few rounds of the draft because Hamels is a huge injury risk. Hes got the upside but you need to protect yourself. Most likely on average everyone is keeping roughly 2 pitchers so I Hamels goes down you'll be in a bad spot with your rotation compared to everyone else. Can you trade in the offseason? Look to see if you can upgrade.
  2. nilodnayr
    Not too shabby.
  3. nilodnayr
    i can see Johan being the most valuable player in fantasy 5x5 this year. i'd jump on that right away. Looks like the Utley guy and the Howard guy are balking. I've proposed Manny and Pena for VMart (his team is horrible) and might go up to Manny and Berkman/Beckett if I have to. I'm really dead set on VMart and willing to overpay since I won't be able to keep those guys anyway. After trading Phillips and Bedard for Santana that would leave me at Santana Braun Rollins VMart Berkman/Beckett
  4. nilodnayr
    Was offered Santana for Philips and Bedard. Sounds pretty good to me. I'm going to try to upgrade to Utley first.
  5. nilodnayr
    Closers have more trade value midseason than offseason
  6. nilodnayr
    I don't think you can go wrong with either Putz or Gallardo. I'm a fan of the Yo, but Putz is a dominant closer. Definitely Phillips over Furcal. And most of all, don't pay attention to the Bill James projections. They are notoriously more optimistic than anyone else.
  7. nilodnayr
    Rollins is a definite. Upton gains a lot of value in your league because you do separate out CF. Even still though, I was hugely on the Upton bandwagon at this time last year, but if I had him now I'd be selling high. His batted ball data is really unsustainable, very very very few players strike out that much and have a batting average that doesn't hurt you. I would try to package him with another guy you aren't going to keep to a team that has a weaker 3/4 keeper spot to upgrade. Try to get a Peavy/Santana, a Martin/VMart, or a less risky CF. I'm sure there are teams out there that would love Vlad, Manny, and/or Upton. Thats just my opinion on Upton, though. It was only his age 22 season, and he does have a history of striking out while having a good average. But that 400 BABIP and 20% HR/FB can't be ignored. I think a lot of the projection systems have it right with his average coming down to the 270s, homers coming down to the teens, but steals up to the 30s with a full year of ABs. Maybe Meph can do some magic and show how that compares to other CFs for you.
  8. nilodnayr
    I'm [expletive], I read Justin Upton, and thought BJ. So if its dynasty, why do you need to worry about who to keep and who not to? Or is it going into dynasty next offseason and there will be a draft this season? I think JUSTIN Upton is a guy you should be able to pick up decently into the draft. Hes going to be a liability this year and possibly next, so unless you have a few teams that are going to punt this season for future seasons, don't waste a keeper on him. I'm assuming your payouts are something like top 3 or so. If thats the case, then a dynasty league is very similar to regular baseball. The top 25% get into the playoffs. If you don't have a chance of being in the top 25% (ie. get a payout) then you should be completely rebuilding, ala Beane. Playing it both ways (ie Furcal and Upton) is just going to make you wind up slightly out of the money.
  9. nilodnayr
    Furcal is going to go under the radar this year, I don't think you need to waste a keeper spot on him. You should be able to snag him a few rounds later. I'd say Upton would go before Furcal, but then again you have K's as a category so his value takes a hit. My personal preference would be gallardo over putz, but I don't like keeping closers, even one as good as Putz. Myers is probably going to be a good sleeper-ish starter, but I'd be worried about his IP going from 198 to 69 back up to 200 or so. (As of now) Joba is going to start the year starting but will be under strict IP limits and might miss out on some wins while hes starting and eventually move to the pen about 2/3rds or so into the season. Cashman knows the 30 IP rule and Joba only threw 112 last year, so he won't exceed 140 this year. Buchholz threw 148 last year and with Schilling out hes got a spot open, but hes not in high enough demand to need to be kept. Definitely pass on corpas and valverde.
  10. nilodnayr
    I think Percival is going to get a lot more save opps than people think. The DRays should have a much much much improved bullpen that will bridge the gap from their good young starters.
  11. nilodnayr
    relax, i was being facetious with that remark. even if you consider those 5 as the most valuable five players on the list, it's still a tremendous waste to outright drop phillips. he's the 20th most valued player in single-season leagues, and i have no doubt there'll be somebody drooling over the 26 year old in a keeper league. at least try to peddle him and Beckett for Howard or Peavy, get a clear upgrade if you can. I had been talking to a guy about Peavy. I'll test his interest in Phillips. I also sent out a feeler on VMart. The guy who has him as a horrible team. I'm always so frustrated with catchers (even though we only have a 1 catcher league) and their variability. I think Posada will be the biggest disappointment this year. Guys like Soto and Towles are interesting but can be huge busts or I might miss out on them in the draft. Finally, I sent out feelers to see if the guy who has Utley would be interested in downgrading to Brandon Phillips for an upgrade in the back end of his keepers.
  12. nilodnayr
    relax, i was being facetious with that remark. even if you consider those 5 as the most valuable five players on the list, it's still a tremendous waste to outright drop phillips. he's the 20th most valued player in single-season leagues, and i have no doubt there'll be somebody drooling over the 26 year old in a keeper league. at least try to peddle him and Beckett for Howard or Peavy, get a clear upgrade if you can. I had been talking to a guy about Peavy. I'll test his interest in Phillips.
  13. nilodnayr
    is a 2 year deal really blocking colvin? Not necessarily, but those are the feelings of the Cubs people I've talked with. They also don't see Crisp as being that much of an upgrade. well...at least they have their heads screwed on correctly with that assessment The whole point of a Crisp trade would be to make Pie available to upgrade at SS or at SP, but evidently, the Cubs aren't into that.
  14. nilodnayr
    I don't like the variability of h2h and its more about gaminig the system than actually putting together a good team. I play roto and still monitor it everyday.
  15. nilodnayr
    IIRC it was, but I'll have to wait until I go home and can take a look at my refrigerator. :lol:
  16. nilodnayr
    F H2H
  17. nilodnayr
    I had 96 points last year and came in second :cry: For the second year in a row the winner had over 100 points Very cool tool. No one has purposefully tried the punting category strategy in my league to the extreme, and given the dynamics of it, I don't think it would work. Our league has a few really good players a few really bad players and the rest are below average. Basically I dont need to punt everything to be in the top 3 in all categories (the only thing I wasn't top three was effen BA). I know, I should join a better league, but I kinda find if fun competing against the same few smart managers year in year out. I prefer a well balanced team to "destroying the competition" in a few categories. The marginal return on an additional steal when you are already winning the category by 20 is nothing. Now obviously, then you can trade from a position of strength, BUT when you punt categories, the marginal return on an additional HR when you are already last in the category by 20 is nothing. I know I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. I like to plan to be above average in all categories. Then towards the end of the year I can decided to trade a closer and lose a point to gain 4 points in HR/RBIs or something like that. There always is some separation.
  18. nilodnayr
    Thanks!
  19. nilodnayr
    Though look at the difference between everyone besides Utley. Basically they are in a huge tie for 2nd. I understand what you are saying in terms of depth at the position, but everyone other than johnson and possibly weeks are going to be kept. What does the position look like beyond those guys? Also, since my leage has MI, I'll need to take another 2b/ss as well.
  20. nilodnayr
    The upgrade is worth it; Howard will probably be the best 5x5 1B this year. His average won't be sub .280 again, just keep Smoltz. I worry about Howards K rate. Its historic for his batting average. Smoltz is a guy who I think I can not keep and grab a few rounds into the draft that's less of an issue with his freakish LD%. his K rate was a career high and his BABIP a career low, those two rates should approach career norms. he'll be fine in BA. 45/130 should make it a non-issue anyways. Smoltz isn't that much different than Beckett and Bedard, that I think it's worth having 3 first-rounder types as your foundation and still keep a good #1 starter. Yeah, for some reason Smoltz is always undervalued in my league. I think I got him in the 10th round or so last year and this year he was pretty much the same. He just flies under the radar because he doesn't get the hype. People usually don't keep that many starters, on average I'd say each team takes 1 guy, so I'd like to go with 4 position players and 1 starter. I'd prefer it to be either Bedard or Beckett though leaving me the ability to grab smoltz a few rounds in.
  21. nilodnayr
    The upgrade is worth it; Howard will probably be the best 5x5 1B this year. His average won't be sub .280 again, just keep Smoltz. I worry about Howards K rate. Its historic for his batting average. Smoltz is a guy who I think I can not keep and grab a few rounds into the draft
  22. nilodnayr
    Your player rankings disagree with you. I'm big on position scarcity, especially because my league has SS, 2B, and MI. I like Phillips. It was his first breakout year so he definitely could bust next year, but he was a stud prospect, I think similar to Hanley, hes just finally realizing his potential. I mean if you look at him from a fantasy perspective hes basically Grady Sizemore with 2b eligibility. Hes no Utley, but even if he drops down from 30/30, 100/100 to 20/20 with 80/80 thats still pretty great production out of your 2b spot.
  23. nilodnayr
    So, I'm in a 12 team 5x5 roto league with 5 keepers. Problem is that I have more than 5 guys I'd love to keep. Rollins Braun Phillips Berkman Bedard Beckett Manny Smoltz Pena I think right now the top 4 are locks for me. I'm trying to pull off a trade with some of the rest to get a really good last guy. Right now I'm in discussions for Howard and I've sent out feelers on Santana. The guy who has Howard is evaluating his team, but is interested in Berkman, Bedard, and Beckett. He didn't mention if he liked all of them in a package, or some or whatever. If he wants all three, I think I'll counter with Berkman + one of the pitchers. Is the upgrade from Berkman to Howard worth it? I'm worried about what Howards BA could be.
  24. nilodnayr
    Is there any realistic chance Demp/Marquis + prospect would net us crisp? If I'm not mistaken, Boston doesn't want him anymore and would readily move him in a trade. Marquis/ Dempster and mid level prospect might do it. They may still demand more, but seeing as how they have a hole in their rotation, they could be desparate. They don't really have "a hole in their rotation", at least not one that Dempster or Marquis would meaningfully fill. Beckett - Daisuke - Buchholz - Lester - Wakefield Yeah that's not a rotation with a "hole" necessarily, but both Buchholz and Lester are only 24 and neither have thrown a particularly high number of innings. Daisuke really wore down at the end of last year and Wakefield is no spring chicken either (even though he's a knuckler). I would see someone like Dempster appealing to them as an bullpen arm/emergency starter/insurance plan. At least that is what I hope Hendry and Lou have accomplished with this "Dempster to the rotation" garbage they have been spewing. They already have Tavarez who can swing as a reliever or a starter.
  25. nilodnayr
    Id love for them to trade some top prospects for a number 3
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