nilodnayr

Because the Indians are smart and the Cubs are stupid? We could buy 3 Salcedos for the money we gave Samardzija.

Its moreso that the cards projection looks off. Last year, they were slightly better than what the worst case scenario is projecting. A lot of that is coming from Marcel predicting 100 OPS improvements at 2b (Kennedy>Kennedy), 3B (Rolen>Glaus), and CF (Edmonds>Ankiel). Its also predicting Encarnacion to play, and even Tango would tell you to ignore the playing time projections of Marcel.

Votto's Marcel OPS is still about 30 points below what Hatteberg did last year. Regarding Park Factor. Since the Reds offense is basically made up of the same players as last year, then park factors really aren't an issue.

newbie. Only 15 posts. Actually, I had to check the appearance for non-premium users. What a jerk, he should support the site. :lol:

Meh, they are saying best case scenario the Reds offense is the same as it was last year. Its not that insane of a position to take with Dusty at the helm.

Unfortunately if you are Jim Hendry, yes that is a fact. What was the burnitz quote? Like that he was one of the best RBI guys in baseball who strikes out over 100 times or something like that.

San Diego...whale's vagina.

I want this team to die.

Sunday games are much easier to get tickets to but Saturday games are much easier to get drunk at.

I always thought the BoSox interest in Santana was just in order to jack up the price for the Yanks to cripple them in the long run. Boston had the better team and the marginal wins that Santana would have supplied them would not have been worth much. But I guess the Yanks must have also had the same thought and just been trying to drive up the price for the BoSox if they really turned down a Melky/Kennedy package. Or that just wasn't true.

Heres a link to his UZRs http://www.tangotiger.net/mgl/ UZR0307 shows it from 03-07 What is the translation like take 10 runs away to go from LF to CF? I wasn't saying hes not fine, but hes no Everret. Lets see in left field those put him at +36 in LF. That translates to about +25 in CF. Sorry, I was on my gf's stupid mac lastnight and I couldn't figure out how to unzip files (I'm guessing im the stupid one, not the mac), so heres the analysis. This is assuming the translation from LF to CF is 10 runs over 150 games. I really pulled that off the top of my head, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think its pretty close. According to MGL's UZRs, combining his time in LF (adjusting to CF) and his time in CF, here are his runs/150 2003: 10 runs in 93 games analyzed 2004: 28 runs in 117 games analyzed 2005: 11 runs in 143 games analyzed 2006: -13 runs in 100 games analyzed partial 2007: 13 runs in 43 games analyzed Eyeball aggregating and regressing and you get around +10 runs or so, which is good. Everett is around +25 to +30 or so. Again, Adam Everett he is not.

Heres a link to his UZRs http://www.tangotiger.net/mgl/ UZR0307 shows it from 03-07 What is the translation like take 10 runs away to go from LF to CF? I wasn't saying hes not fine, but hes no Everret.

The previous year Patterson was tops in the AL in RZR and Crisp was dead last amoung qualifiers. Either way I don't want either of them and I certainly wouldn't be giving up a 2 players to get him. Sorry TT, but I'm going to have to disagree with you. As SZJ points out advanced defensive metrics have Crisp all over the place. Aggregate them and hes around average. Regressing to the mean would also accomplish this. He is absolutely not like Everett because Everett has consistantly done this year in, year out. The amount of fluctuation in advanced defensive metrics is staggaring. Either there is a flaw in the metric or most players' actual defensive value fluctuates year over year due to randomness and sample size. IMO its both. There are a few guys out there that are truly a few sigmas from the means defensively in either direction, but Covelli ain't one of them.

Thats a great schedule, better than previous years when I'd have to "work" from home to watch spring training games.

So odd that they would count on his spring training play. Why not just have team doctors evaluate his back rigorously? So say he goes out there for 2 weeks and hits .100. "Oh, his back must not be healthy, deal is off." Or he goes out and knocks the cover off the ball in a few games and the deal is on. Is half a season of Cactus League play going to tell the Giants what they need to know about his back? I don't see what stats OR scouts could possibly see in a few games of spring training action that would allow them to make that determination. Now, a medical exam? Sure. If this is really the case, it amazes me (OK, it really doesn't) what goes on in terms of decision making in professional sports, particularly baseball. It just said "looks healthy during spring training", it didn't say anything about the #s he'll be putting up, and I'm sure there will be a littany of medical tests, but theres nothing like the real thing of getting out there on the dirt with spikes on doing drills, being in games, etc. I mean are you really going to have a medical test of him alternating between a ready and a lose position in spikes on dirt for 10 minutes, then sitting down on a bench for 10 minutes, then repeating, one of the times having him swing a bat 5 times, etc. A combination of medical tests before and during spring training as well as watching how hes doing in games is the way to go. It didn't seem to me at all that they'd judge it on 30 ABs or anything like that, but I might be giving Sabean too much credit.

TOWERS

Guerra does have the ceiling to be a #1 if he ever got that curveball. I can't believe the Twins didn't get Fernando Martinez out of this trade at least. Awful, it sounded like the Red Sox were offering more a few months ago in those rumored trades. How would Veal, Gallagher, Pie, and Ceda compare to that package? Just for the sake of speculation. I know it wasn't likely the Cubs could afford to pay him, given the situation. The Mets will have to extend Santana at something close to full market value. If you look at all the young talent they traded plus the money involved it amounts to a huge price tag. The Cubs couldn't have afforded it. Frankly, I think a Pie, Marmol, Veal, Marshall deal trumps that one. And although its a ton of our young talent, I'd do it (although I have to say I'm not a fan of Pie and Marshall, iffy on Veal, and Marmol would be trading high/hes a reliever). But yeah, paying him would probably be an issue (but at least we have Sori!!!). Although if you traded Dempster, Marquis, and Lee you could easily cover his salary.

Because there were ~10-15 flyball outs he made last year that would have been HRs at virtually any other park. HRs increase OBP. Look at his ABs each of those years. Extrapolate the ABs (roughly 410-440 per season for 2004-2006) to the 2007 AB total (611 ABs) and you get 23 home runs per season in those years. Since you are already at cubs.com, it will be easier for you to do this exercise. Click on any cubs player and go to their batted ball chart. Print out the scale of Wrigley. Go to the padres mlb website and do the same for Khalil Green showing fly outs, doubles, and triples. Overlay the Wrigley cut out over the Petco cutout. 2005 and 2007 specifically show you how much Petco hurts him. Hes a fly ball hitter in a fly ball pitchers dream park. Moving to Wrigley would be heaven for him. (Obviously this exercise doesnt account for wall height or wind, but its pretty shocking nonetheless). I just did that...it looks like 6-7 more HR's and maybe a couple of fly-ball outs would have been out of play in 2007 and at least 11 HR's in 2005. He hit sooo many balls to the wall in right-center. Left, not right. But yeah, its a lot. Roughly hes been in the top 20 players in the game in FB% the last three years. I guess you might call that left-center...oops. Just pretend you are really drunk and sitting in the bleachers and a girl :lol:

I'd put money on the fact that Tango is going to say this is a great deal.

THT has a good glossary. I'm not sure how much non-BP members can see but Baseball Prospectus has a glossary as well. Also, wikipedia is a pretty good source. Or just google stuff. The interwebs are your friend. If you really want to learn stuff perusehttp://www.insidethebook.com thanks for the links and tips guys...should i just go buy that book after class tonight? Absofreakinlutely

Because there were ~10-15 flyball outs he made last year that would have been HRs at virtually any other park. HRs increase OBP. Look at his ABs each of those years. Extrapolate the ABs (roughly 410-440 per season for 2004-2006) to the 2007 AB total (611 ABs) and you get 23 home runs per season in those years. Since you are already at cubs.com, it will be easier for you to do this exercise. Click on any cubs player and go to their batted ball chart. Print out the scale of Wrigley. Go to the padres mlb website and do the same for Khalil Green showing fly outs, doubles, and triples. Overlay the Wrigley cut out over the Petco cutout. 2005 and 2007 specifically show you how much Petco hurts him. Hes a fly ball hitter in a fly ball pitchers dream park. Moving to Wrigley would be heaven for him. (Obviously this exercise doesnt account for wall height or wind, but its pretty shocking nonetheless). I just did that...it looks like 6-7 more HR's and maybe a couple of fly-ball outs would have been out of play in 2007 and at least 11 HR's in 2005. He hit sooo many balls to the wall in right-center. Left, not right. But yeah, its a lot. Roughly hes been in the top 20 players in the game in FB% the last three years.

Because there were ~10-15 flyball outs he made last year that would have been HRs at virtually any other park. HRs increase OBP. Look at his ABs each of those years. Extrapolate the ABs (roughly 410-440 per season for 2004-2006) to the 2007 AB total (611 ABs) and you get 23 home runs per season in those years. Since you are already at cubs.com, it will be easier for you to do this exercise. Click on any cubs player and go to their batted ball chart. Print out the scale of Wrigley. Go to the padres mlb website and do the same for Khalil Green showing fly outs, doubles, and triples. Overlay the Wrigley cut out over the Petco cutout. 2005 and 2007 specifically show you how much Petco hurts him. Hes a fly ball hitter in a fly ball pitchers dream park. Moving to Wrigley would be heaven for him. (Obviously this exercise doesnt account for wall height or wind, but its pretty shocking nonetheless).

THT has a good glossary. I'm not sure how much non-BP members can see but Baseball Prospectus has a glossary as well. Also, wikipedia is a pretty good source. Or just google stuff. The interwebs are your friend. If you really want to learn stuff perusehttp://www.insidethebook.com

Oh man, you're leaving? We didn't even get to use VORP and EqA yet I used VORP in this thread (not pertaining to Greene/Theriot though). Does VORP take park factors into account? Yup.

So it's kind of assuming that 20% of the times you reach base are anything more than a single or walk? No, all it is is a weight to say that OBP is actually more important than SLG to a player's value. 1.8 times. So player A who puts up a 345/440 (OPS/SLG) is actually the equivalent of a player that puts up a 300/520. So while OPS would say the 2nd guy is better (785/820 OPS), they are actually equal if you weight OBP by 1.8. (ie .345*1.8+.440=.300*1.8+.520)